Optimal Combined Forecasts for Electricity Prices: Influence of Clean Energies

In this work, an electricity price forecasting model is developed. The performance of the proposed approach is improved by considering renewable energies (wind power and hydro generation) as explanatory variables. Additionally, the resulting forecasts are obtained as an optimal combination of a set of several univariate and multivariate time series models. The large computational experiment carried out using out-of-sample forecasts for every hour and day allows withdrawing statistically sound conclusions

A framework for mixed-criticality partitioned real-time embedded systems

Los sistemas empotrados son cada día más comunes y complejos, de modo que encontrar procesos seguros, eficaces y baratos de desarrollo software dirigidos específicamente a esta clase de sistemas es más necesario que nunca. A diferencia de lo que ocurría hasta hace poco, en la actualidad los avances tecnológicos en el campo de los microprocesadores de los últimos tiempos permiten el desarrollo de equipos con prestaciones más que suficientes para ejecutar varios sistemas software en una única máquina. Además, hay sistemas empotrados con requisitos de seguridad (safety) de cuyo correcto funcionamiento depende la vida de muchas personas y/o grandes inversiones económicas. Estos sistemas software se diseñan e implementan de acuerdo con unos estándares de desarrollo software muy estrictos y exigentes. En algunos casos puede ser necesaria también la certificación del software. Para estos casos, los sistemas con criticidades mixtas pueden ser una alternativa muy valiosa. En esta clase de sistemas, aplicaciones con diferentes niveles de criticidad se ejecutan en el mismo computador. Sin embargo, a menudo es necesario certificar el sistema entero con el nivel de criticidad de la aplicación más crítica, lo que hace que los costes se disparen. La virtualización se ha postulado como una tecnología muy interesante para contener esos costes. Esta tecnología permite que un conjunto de máquinas virtuales o particiones ejecuten las aplicaciones con unos niveles de aislamiento tanto temporal como espacial muy altos. Esto, a su vez, permite que cada partición pueda ser certificada independientemente. Para el desarrollo de sistemas particionados con criticidades mixtas se necesita actualizar los modelos de desarrollo software tradicionales, pues estos no cubren ni las nuevas actividades ni los nuevos roles que se requieren en el desarrollo de estos sistemas. Por ejemplo, el integrador del sistema debe definir las particiones o el desarrollador de aplicaciones debe tener en cuenta las características de la partición donde su aplicación va a ejecutar. Tradicionalmente, en el desarrollo de sistemas empotrados, el modelo en V ha tenido una especial relevancia. Por ello, este modelo ha sido adaptado para tener en cuenta escenarios tales como el desarrollo en paralelo de aplicaciones o la incorporación de una nueva partición a un sistema ya existente. El objetivo de esta tesis doctoral es mejorar la tecnología actual de desarrollo de sistemas particionados con criticidades mixtas. Para ello, se ha diseñado e implementado un entorno dirigido específicamente a facilitar y mejorar los procesos de desarrollo de esta clase de sistemas. En concreto, se ha creado un algoritmo que genera el particionado del sistema automáticamente. En el entorno de desarrollo propuesto, se han integrado todas las actividades necesarias para desarrollo de un sistema particionado, incluidos los nuevos roles y actividades mencionados anteriormente. Además, el diseño del entorno de desarrollo se ha basado en la ingeniería guiada por modelos (Model-Driven Engineering), la cual promueve el uso de los modelos como elementos fundamentales en el proceso de desarrollo. Así pues, se proporcionan las herramientas necesarias para modelar y particionar el sistema, así como para validar los resultados y generar los artefactos necesarios para el compilado, construcción y despliegue del mismo. Además, en el diseño del entorno de desarrollo, la extensión e integración del mismo con herramientas de validación ha sido un factor clave. En concreto, se pueden incorporar al entorno de desarrollo nuevos requisitos no-funcionales, la generación de nuevos artefactos tales como documentación o diferentes lenguajes de programación, etc. Una parte clave del entorno de desarrollo es el algoritmo de particionado. Este algoritmo se ha diseñado para ser independiente de los requisitos de las aplicaciones así como para permitir al integrador del sistema implementar nuevos requisitos del sistema. Para lograr esta independencia, se han definido las restricciones al particionado. El algoritmo garantiza que dichas restricciones se cumplirán en el sistema particionado que resulte de su ejecución. Las restricciones al particionado se han diseñado con una capacidad expresiva suficiente para que, con un pequeño grupo de ellas, se puedan expresar la mayor parte de los requisitos no-funcionales más comunes. Las restricciones pueden ser definidas manualmente por el integrador del sistema o bien pueden ser generadas automáticamente por una herramienta a partir de los requisitos funcionales y no-funcionales de una aplicación. El algoritmo de particionado toma como entradas los modelos y las restricciones al particionado del sistema. Tras la ejecución y como resultado, se genera un modelo de despliegue en el que se definen las particiones que son necesarias para el particionado del sistema. A su vez, cada partición define qué aplicaciones deben ejecutar en ella así como los recursos que necesita la partición para ejecutar correctamente. El problema del particionado y las restricciones al particionado se modelan matemáticamente a través de grafos coloreados. En dichos grafos, un coloreado propio de los vértices representa un particionado del sistema correcto. El algoritmo se ha diseñado también para que, si es necesario, sea posible obtener particionados alternativos al inicialmente propuesto. El entorno de desarrollo, incluyendo el algoritmo de particionado, se ha probado con éxito en dos casos de uso industriales: el satélite UPMSat-2 y un demostrador del sistema de control de una turbina eólica. Además, el algoritmo se ha validado mediante la ejecución de numerosos escenarios sintéticos, incluyendo algunos muy complejos, de más de 500 aplicaciones. ABSTRACT The importance of embedded software is growing as it is required for a large number of systems. Devising cheap, efficient and reliable development processes for embedded systems is thus a notable challenge nowadays. Computer processing power is continuously increasing, and as a result, it is currently possible to integrate complex systems in a single processor, which was not feasible a few years ago.Embedded systems may have safety critical requirements. Its failure may result in personal or substantial economical loss. The development of these systems requires stringent development processes that are usually defined by suitable standards. In some cases their certification is also necessary. This scenario fosters the use of mixed-criticality systems in which applications of different criticality levels must coexist in a single system. In these cases, it is usually necessary to certify the whole system, including non-critical applications, which is costly. Virtualization emerges as an enabling technology used for dealing with this problem. The system is structured as a set of partitions, or virtual machines, that can be executed with temporal and spatial isolation. In this way, applications can be developed and certified independently. The development of MCPS (Mixed-Criticality Partitioned Systems) requires additional roles and activities that traditional systems do not require. The system integrator has to define system partitions. Application development has to consider the characteristics of the partition to which it is allocated. In addition, traditional software process models have to be adapted to this scenario. The V-model is commonly used in embedded systems development. It can be adapted to the development of MCPS by enabling the parallel development of applications or adding an additional partition to an existing system. The objective of this PhD is to improve the available technology for MCPS development by providing a framework tailored to the development of this type of system and by defining a flexible and efficient algorithm for automatically generating system partitionings. The goal of the framework is to integrate all the activities required for developing MCPS and to support the different roles involved in this process. The framework is based on MDE (Model-Driven Engineering), which emphasizes the use of models in the development process. The framework provides basic means for modeling the system, generating system partitions, validating the system and generating final artifacts. The framework has been designed to facilitate its extension and the integration of external validation tools. In particular, it can be extended by adding support for additional non-functional requirements and support for final artifacts, such as new programming languages or additional documentation. The framework includes a novel partitioning algorithm. It has been designed to be independent of the types of applications requirements and also to enable the system integrator to tailor the partitioning to the specific requirements of a system. This independence is achieved by defining partitioning constraints that must be met by the resulting partitioning. They have sufficient expressive capacity to state the most common constraints and can be defined manually by the system integrator or generated automatically based on functional and non-functional requirements of the applications. The partitioning algorithm uses system models and partitioning constraints as its inputs. It generates a deployment model that is composed by a set of partitions. Each partition is in turn composed of a set of allocated applications and assigned resources. The partitioning problem, including applications and constraints, is modeled as a colored graph. A valid partitioning is a proper vertex coloring. A specially designed algorithm generates this coloring and is able to provide alternative partitions if required. The framework, including the partitioning algorithm, has been successfully used in the development of two industrial use cases: the UPMSat-2 satellite and the control system of a wind-power turbine. The partitioning algorithm has been successfully validated by using a large number of synthetic loads, including complex scenarios with more that 500 applications.

Integración técnica y económica de energías renovables, en un sistema eléctrico liberalizado, a partir de vectores energéticos

El objetivo de la tesis es estudiar la bondad del almacenamiento de energía en hidrógeno para minorar los desvíos de energía respecto a su previsión de parques eólicos y huertas solares. Para ello se ha partido de datos de energías horarias previstas con 24 h de antelación y la energía real generada. Se ha procedido a dimensionar la planta de hidrógeno, a partir de una modelización de la operación de la misma, teniendo siempre como objetivo la limitación de los desvíos. Posteriormente, se ha procedido a simular la operación de la planta con dos objetivos en mente, uno limitar los desvíos y por otro lado operar la planta como una central de bombeo, generando hidrógeno en horas valle y generando electricidad en horas punta. Las dos simulaciones se han aplicado a tres parques eólicos de diferentes potencias, y a una huerta solar fotovoltaica. Se ha realizado un estudio económico para determinar la viabilidad de las plantas dimensionadas, obteniendo como resultado que no son viables a día de hoy y con la estimación de precios considerada, necesitando disminuir considerablemente los costes, dependiendo fuertemente de la bondad de los métodos de previsión de viento. Por último se ha estudiado la influencia de la disminución de los desvíos generados sobre una red tipo de 30 nudos, obteniendo como resultado, que si bien no disminuyen sensiblemente los extra costes generados en regulación, sí que mejora la penetración de las energías renovables no despachables en la red. Se observa disminuyen los vertidos eólicos cuando se usa la planta de hidrógeno. ABSTRACT The aim of this thesis is to study the benefit of hydrogen energy storage to minimize energy deviations of Wind Power and Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Power Plants compared to its forecast. To achieve this goal, first of all we have started with hourly energy data provided 24 h in advance (scheduled energy), and real generation (measured energy). Secondly, It has been sized the hydrogen plant, from a modeling of its working mode, always keeping the goal in mind of limiting energy imbalances. Subsequently, It have been simulated the plant working mode following two goals, one, to limit energy imbalances and secondly to operate the plant as a pumping power plant, generating hydrogen-in valley hours and generating electricity at peak hours. The two simulations have been applied to three wind power plants with different installed power capacities, and a photovoltaic solar power plant. It has been done an economic analysis in order to determine the viability of this sized plants, turning out not viable plants today with the estimated prices considered, requiring significantly lower costs, depending heavily on the reliability of the Wind Power forecast methods. Finally, It has been studied the influence of decreasing measured imbalances (of energy) in a 30 grid node, resulting that, while it not reduces significantly the extra costs generated by reserve power, it does improve the penetration of non-manageable renewable energy on the grid, by reducing the curtailments of power of these plants.

Development of a grid connected micro wind generator. A practical activity for the course on electric generation with wind energy

This paper describes a practical activity, part of the renewable energy course where the students have to build their own complete wind generation system, including blades, PM-generator, power electronics and control. After connecting the system to the electric grid the system has been tested during real wind scenarios. The paper will describe the electric part of the work surface-mounted permanent magnet machine design criteria as well as the power electronics part for the power control and the grid connection. A Kalman filter is used for the voltage phase estimation and current commands obtained in order to control active and reactive power. The connection to the grid has been done and active and reactive power has been measured in the system.

Power system stability of a small sized isolated network supplied by a combined wind-pumped storage generation system: a case study in the Canary Islands

Massive integration of renewable energy sources in electrical power systems of remote islands is a subject of current interest. The increasing cost of fossil fuels, transport costs to isolated sites and environmental concerns constitute a serious drawback to the use of conventional fossil fuel plants. In a weak electrical grid, as it is typical on an island, if a large amount of conventional generation is substituted by renewable energy sources, power system safety and stability can be compromised, in the case of large grid disturbances. In this work, a model for transient stability analysis of an isolated electrical grid exclusively fed from a combination of renewable energy sources has been studied. This new generation model will be installed in El Hierro Island, in Spain. Additionally, an operation strategy to coordinate the generation units (wind, hydro) is also established. Attention is given to the assessment of inertial energy and reactive current to guarantee power system stability against large disturbances. The effectiveness of the proposed strategy is shown by means of simulation results.

Prediction of wake effects on wind farm power production using a RANS approach. Part II. Offshore: Case studies from the UPWIND project

The estimation of power losses due to wind turbine wakes is crucial to understanding overall wind farm economics. This is especially true for large offshore wind farms, as it represents the primary source of losses in available power, given the regular arrangement of rotors, their generally largerdiameter and the lower ambient turbulence level, all of which conspire to dramatically affect wake expansion and, consequently, the power deficit. Simulation of wake effects in offshore wind farms (in reasonable computational time) is currently feasible using CFD tools. An elliptic CFD model basedon the actuator disk method and various RANS turbulence closure schemes is tested and validated using power ratios extracted from Horns Rev and Nysted wind farms, collected as part of the EU-funded UPWIND project. The primary focus of the present work is on turbulence modeling, as turbulent mixing is the main mechanism for flow recovery inside wind farms. A higher-order approach, based on the anisotropic RSM model, is tested to better take into account the imbalance in the length scales inside and outside of the wake, not well reproduced by current two-equation closure schemes.

Power density of a bare electrodynamic tether generator

The maximum performance of bare electrodynamic tethers as power generating systems under OML-theory is analyzed. Results show that best performance in terms of power density is achieved by designing the tether in such a way to increase ohmic impedance with respect to plasma contact impedance, hence favoring longer and thinner tethers. In such condition the corresponding optimal value of the load impedance is seen to approach the ohmic impedance of the conducting tether. At the other extreme, when plasma contact impedance dominates (which is not optimal but can be relevant for some applications) optimum power generation is found by matching the load impedance with an effective tether-plasma contact impedance whose expression is derived.

Wind intermittency and CO2 reductions: the case of the spanish power system

Renewable energy sources are believed to reduce drastically greenhouse gas emissions that would otherwise be generated from fossil fuels used to generate electricity. This implies that a unit of renewable energy will replace a unit of fossil-fuel, with its CO2 emissions, on an equivalent basis (with no other effects on the grid). But, the fuel economy and emissions in the existing power systems are not proportional with the electricity production of intermittent sources due to cycling of the fossil fuel plants that make up the balance of the grid (i.e. changing the power output makes thermal units to operate less efficiently). This study focuses in the interactions between wind generation and thermal plants cycling, by establishing the levels of extra fuel use caused by decreased efficiencies of fossil back-up for wind electricity in Spain. We analyze the production of all thermal plants in 2011, studying different scenarios where wind penetration causes major deviations in programming, while we define a procedure for quantifying the carbon reductions by using emission factors and efficiency curves from the existing installations. The objectives are to discuss the real contributions of renewable energies to the environmental targets as well as suggest alternatives that would improve the reliability of future power systems.

Low Voltage Ride-through in DFIG Wind Generators by Controlling the Rotor Current without Crowbars

Among all the different types of electric wind generators, those that are based on doubly fed induction generators, or DFIG technology, are the most vulnerable to grid faults such as voltage sags. This paper proposes a new control strategy for this type of wind generator, that allows these devices to withstand the effects of a voltage sag while following the new requirements imposed by grid operators. This new control strategy makes the use of complementary devices such as crowbars unnecessary, as it greatly reduces the value of currents originated by the fault. This ensures less costly designs for the rotor systems as well as a more economic sizing of the necessary power electronics. The strategy described here uses an electric generator model based on space-phasor theory that provides a direct control over the position of the rotor magnetic flux. Controlling the rotor magnetic flux has a direct influence on the rest of the electrical variables enabling the machine to evolve to a desired work point during the transient imposed by the grid disturbance. Simulation studies have been carried out, as well as test bench trials, in order to prove the viability and functionality of the proposed control strategy.

Sistema eléctrico y de control de potencia de un túnel aerodinámico = Design of the power distribution and control system for a wind tunnel facility

Este proyecto trata de diseñar el sistema eléctrico y de control de potencia de una maqueta del túnel aerodinámico ACLA-16 de la Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM). Dicha maqueta se utiliza para estudiar el efecto de la capa límite atmosférica, debido a su importancia en el impacto sobre estructuras civiles. Primero se desarrolla una parte teórica sobre qué son los túneles aerodinámicos, las aplicaciones que tienen y conceptos básicos acerca de la capa límite atmosférica. Luego se analiza el diseño geométrico de la maqueta del túnel y se detallan los elementos que debe tener el sistema eléctrico. Además, se realiza una simulación por ordenador con un programa de CFD (Fluent) para comparar los resultados experimentales reales con los resultados numéricos de la simulación para comprobar si se pueden extraer resultados aceptables por ordenador y así ahorrar costes y tiempo en el estudio de ensayos.

Sistema eléctrico y de control de potencia de un túnel aerodinámico = Design of the power distribution and control system for a wind tunnel facility

El proyecto está basado en el estudio de la planta de potencia de un túnel aerodinámico. Para ello se ha realizado una breve introducción definiendo qué es un túnel aerodinámico, cuál es su propósito, qué tipos hay, etc. Posteriormente se ha escogido un tipo concreto de túnel entre todas las posibilidades y se ha procedido a su estudio. Se ha definido una forma y unas dimensiones y tras calcular las pérdidas de carga, se ha seleccionado la planta de potencia necesaria para compensar dichas pérdidas, dimensionándose también las conexiones de esta desde la acometida de potencia eléctrica. Por último se han dimensionado las conexiones correspondientes a la iluminación y los servicios que competen al túnel aerodinámico.

Sistema eléctrico y de control de potencia de un tunel aerodinámico = Design of the power distributation and control system for a wind tunnel facility

La utilización de túneles aerodinámicos en ingeniería civil está cada vez más demandada debido al actual desarrollo urbanístico, esto es, la necesidad de edificios cada vez más altos en los que concentrar mayor cantidad de población, puentes y estructuras que faciliten el paso de medios de transporte alternativos, la importancia de los aspectos artísticos en la construcción (además de los funcionales), etc. Son muchos los factores que pueden hacer necesario el ensayo de alguna de esas estructuras en un túnel aerodinámico, y no existe un criterio universal a la hora de decidir si conviene o no hacerlo.

Power-frequency control of hydropower plants with long penstocks in isolated systems with wind generation

In this paper the power-frequency control of hydropower plants with long penstocks is addressed. In such configuration the effects of pressure waves cannot be neglected and therefore commonly used criteria for adjustment of PID governors would not be appropriate. A second-order Π model of the turbine-penstock based on a lumped parameter approach is considered. A correction factor is introduced in order to approximate the model frequency response to the continuous case in the frequency interval of interest. Using this model, several criteria are analysed for adjusting the PI governor of a hydropower plant operating in an isolated system. Practical criteria for adjusting the PI governor are given. The results are applied to a real case of a small island where the objective is to achieve a generation 100% renewable (wind and hydro). Frequency control is supposed to be provided exclusively by the hydropower plant. It is verified that the usual criterion for tuning the PI controller of isolated hydro plants gives poor results. However, with the new proposed adjustment, the time response is considerably improved

Conceptual design of offshore platform supply vessel based on hybrid diesel generator-fuel cell power plant

Nowadays increasing fuel prices and upcoming pollutant emission regulations are becoming a growing concern for the shipping industry worldwide. While fuel prices will keep rising in future years, the new International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL) and Sulphur Emissions Control Areas (SECA) regulations will forbid ships to use heavy fuel oils at certain situations. To fulfil with these regulations, the next step in the marine shipping business will comprise the use of cleaner fuels on board as well as developing new propulsion concept. In this work a new conceptual marine propulsion system is developed, based on the integration of diesel generators with fuel cells in a 2850 metric tonne of deadweight platform supply vessel. The efficiency of the two 250 kW methanol-fed Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC) system installed on board combined with the hydro dynamically optimized design of the hull of the ship will allow the ship to successfully operate at certain modes of operation while notably reduce the pollutant emissions to the atmosphere. Besides the cogeneration heat obtained from the fuel cell system will be used to answer different heating needs on board the vessel

Dynamic analysis of road vehicle-bridge systems under turbulent wind by means of Finite Element Models

When an automobile passes over a bridge dynamic effects are produced in vehicle and structure. In addition, the bridge itself moves when exposed to the wind inducing dynamic effects on the vehicle that have to be considered. The main objective of this work is to understand the influence of the different parameters concerning the vehicle, the bridge, the road roughness or the wind in the comfort and safety of the vehicles when crossing bridges. Non linear finite element models are used for structures and multibody dynamic models are employed for vehicles. The interaction between the vehicle and the bridge is considered by contact methods. Road roughness is described by the power spectral density (PSD) proposed by the ISO 8608. To consider that the profiles under right and left wheels are different but not independent, the hypotheses of homogeneity and isotropy are assumed. To generate the wind velocity history along the road the Sandia method is employed. The global problem is solved by means of the finite element method. First the methodology for modelling the interaction is verified in a benchmark. Following, the case of a vehicle running along a rigid road and subjected to the action of the turbulent wind is analyzed and the road roughness is incorporated in a following step. Finally the flexibility of the bridge is added to the model by making the vehicle run over the structure. The application of this methodology will allow to understand the influence of the different parameters in the comfort and safety of road vehicles crossing wind exposed bridges. Those results will help to recommend measures to make the traffic over bridges more reliable without affecting the structural integrity of the viaduct