Impact of High-Speed Rail on Tourists' Decisions: Evidence from a Survey Conducted in Paris and in Madrid

The analysis of how tourists select their holiday destinations along with the factors that determine their choices is very important for promoting tourism. In particular, transportation is supposed to have influence on tourists? decissions. The objective of this paper is to investigate more especifically the role of High Speed Rail (HSR) in this choice. Two key tourist destinations in Europe, Paris and Madrid, have been chosen to understand the factors influencing this choice. On the basis of a survey conducted to tourists, we found out that some aspects such as the presence of architectural sites, the quality of promotion of the destination itself, and cultural and social events, have an impact on their choice. However the presence of the HSR system affects the choice of Paris and Madrid as a touristic destination in a different way. For Paris, TGV is considered a real transport mode alternative among tourists who use it quite often. On the other hand, Madrid is chosen by tourists irrespective of the presence of an efficient HSR network. Data collected from the two surveys have been used for a further quantitative analysis. Regression models have been specified and parameters have been calibrated to identify the factors influencing holidaymakers to revisit Paris and Madrid and visit other touristic spots accesible from HSR from these cities.

Temperature and precipitation effects on wheat yield across a European transect: a crop model ensemble analysis using impact response surfaces

This study explored the utility of the impact response surface (IRS) approach for investigating model ensemble crop yield responses under a large range of changes in climate. IRSs of spring and winter wheat Triticum aestivum yields were constructed from a 26-member ensemble of process-based crop simulation models for sites in Finland, Germany and Spain across a latitudinal transect. The sensitivity of modelled yield to systematic increments of changes in temperature (-2 to +9°C) and precipitation (-50 to +50%) was tested by modifying values of baseline (1981 to 2010) daily weather, with CO2 concentration fixed at 360 ppm. The IRS approach offers an effective method of portraying model behaviour under changing climate as well as advantages for analysing, comparing and presenting results from multi-model ensemble simulations. Though individual model behaviour occasionally departed markedly from the average, ensemble median responses across sites and crop varieties indicated that yields decline with higher temperatures and decreased precipitation and increase with higher precipitation. Across the uncertainty ranges defined for the IRSs, yields were more sensitive to temperature than precipitation changes at the Finnish site while sensitivities were mixed at the German and Spanish sites. Precipitation effects diminished under higher temperature changes. While the bivariate and multi-model characteristics of the analysis impose some limits to interpretation, the IRS approach nonetheless provides additional insights into sensitivities to inter-model and inter-annual variability. Taken together, these sensitivities may help to pinpoint processes such as heat stress, vernalisation or drought effects requiring refinement in future model development.