Diagnosing Causes of Water Scarcity in Complex Water Resources Systems and Identifying Risk Management Actions

From the water management perspective, water scarcity is an unacceptable risk of facing water shortages to serve water demands in the near future. Water scarcity may be temporary and related to drought conditions or other accidental situation, or may be permanent and due to deeper causes such as excessive demand growth, lack of infrastructure for water storage or transport, or constraints in water management. Diagnosing the causes of water scarcity in complex water resources systems is a precondition to adopt effective drought risk management actions. In this paper we present four indices which have been developed to evaluate water scarcity. We propose a methodology for interpretation of index values that can lead to conclusions about the reliability and vulnerability of systems to water scarcity, as well as to diagnose their possible causes and to propose solutions. The described methodology was applied to the Ebro river basin, identifying existing and expected problems and possible solutions. System diagnostics, based exclusively on the analysis of index values, were compared with the known reality as perceived by system managers, validating the conclusions in all cases

Refractive index changes in amorphous SiO2 (silica) by swift ion irradiation

The refractive index changes induced by swift ion-beam irradiation in silica have been measured either by spectroscopic ellipsometry or through the effective indices of the optical modes propagating through the irradiated structure. The optical response has been analyzed by considering an effective homogeneous medium to simulate the nanostructured irradiated system consisting of cylindrical tracks, associated to the ion impacts, embedded into a virgin material. The role of both, irradiation fluence and stopping power, has been investigated. Above a certain electronic stopping power threshold (∼2.5 keV/nm), every ion impact creates an axial region around the trajectory with a fixed refractive index (around n = 1.475) corresponding to a certain structural phase that is independent of stopping power. The results have been compared with previous data measured by means of infrared spectroscopy and small-angle X-ray scattering; possible mechanisms and theoretical models are discussed.

Sentence selection for improving the tuning process of a statistical machine translation system

Este artículo describe una estrategia de selección de frases para hacer el ajuste de un sistema de traducción estadístico basado en el decodificador Moses que traduce del español al inglés. En este trabajo proponemos dos posibilidades para realizar esta selección de las frases del corpus de validación que más se parecen a las frases que queremos traducir (frases de test en lengua origen). Con esta selección podemos obtener unos mejores pesos de los modelos para emplearlos después en el proceso de traducción y, por tanto, mejorar los resultados. Concretamente, con el método de selección basado en la medida de similitud propuesta en este artículo, mejoramos la medida BLEU del 27,17% con el corpus de validación completo al 27,27% seleccionando las frases para el ajuste. Estos resultados se acercan a los del experimento ORACLE: se utilizan las mismas frases de test para hacer el ajuste de los pesos. En este caso, el BLEU obtenido es de 27,51%.

Implementation of a module for risk of ozone impacts assessment to vegetation in the integrated assessment modelling system for the Iberian peninsula. Evaluation for wheat and holm oak

A module to estimate risks of ozone damage to vegetation has been implemented in the Integrated Assessment Modelling system for the Iberian Peninsula. It was applied to compute three different indexes for wheat and Holm oak; daylight AOT40 (cumulative ozone concentration over 40 ppb), cumulative ozone exposure index according to the Directive 2008/50/EC (AOT40-D) and PODY (Phytotoxic Ozone Dose over a given threshold of Y nmol m−2 s−1). The use of these indexes led to remarkable differences in spatial patterns of relative ozone risks on vegetation. Ozone critical levels were exceeded in most of the modelling domain and soil moisture content was found to have a significant impact on the results. According to the outputs of the model, daylight AOT40 constitutes a more conservative index than the AOT40-D. Additionally, flux-based estimations indicate high risk areas in Portugal for both wheat and Holm oak that are not identified by AOT-based methods.

Reliability of a 13000-SHS photovoltaic rural electrification programme

In this paper, a reliability analysis of a photovoltaic rural electrification (PVRE) programme is proposed considering the failures in the 13 000 installed Solar Home System (SHS) devices occurring over a long operating period of 5 years. A previous arrangement of the database and a brief explanation of the reliability concepts will serve to introduce the failure distribution of every component, from which the SHS lifetime operating features will be described. An application example will show the usefulness of the obtained results in the forecasting of spare parts during the maintenance period. The conclusions of this study may be useful in the scientific design of PVRE programme maintenance structures, with the goal of shedding some light on the technical management mechanisms in decentralised rural electrification.

Generating context-aware recommendations using banking data in a mobile recommender system

The increasing adoption of smartphones by the society has created a new area of research in recommender systems. This new domain is based on using location and context-awareness to provide personalization. This paper describes a model to generate context-aware recommendations for mobile recommender systems using banking data in order to recommend places where the bank customers have previously spent their money. In this work we have used real data provided by a well know Spanish bank. The mobile prototype deployed in the bank Labs environment was evaluated in a survey among 100 users with good results regarding usefulness and effectiveness. The results also showed that test users had a high confidence in a recommender system based on real banking data.

Resilience analysis of networked systems-of-systems based on structural and dynamic interdependencies

Critical infrastructures support everyday activities in modern societies, facilitating the exchange of services and quantities of various nature. Their functioning is the result of the integration of diverse technologies, systems and organizations into a complex network of interconnections. Benefits from networking are accompanied by new threats and risks. In particular, because of the increased interdependency, disturbances and failures may propagate and render unstable the whole infrastructure network. This paper presents a methodology of resilience analysis of networked systems of systems. Resilience generalizes the concept of stability of a system around a state of equilibrium, with respect to a disturbance and its ability of preventing, resisting and recovery. The methodology provides a tool for the analysis of off-equilibrium conditions that may occur in a single system and propagate through the network of dependencies. The analysis is conducted in two stages. The first stage of the analysis is qualitative. It identifies the resilience scenarios, i.e. the sequence of events, triggered by an initial disturbance, which include failures and the system response. The second stage is quantitative. The most critical scenarios can be simulated, for the desired parameter settings, in order to check if they are successfully handled, i.e recovered to nominal conditions, or they end into the network failure. The proposed methodology aims at providing an effective support to resilience-informed design.

The NACIR Project: New Applications for CPV'S: A fast way to improve reliability and Technology progress

The main goal of this proposal is to join together the owners of the most advanced CPV technology, with respect to the state of the art, in order to research from its leading position new applications for CPV systems. In addition to opening up new markets, it will unveil possible sources of failure in new environments outside Europe, in order to assure component reliability. The proposed project will also try to improve the current technology of the industrial partners (ISOFOTON and CONCENTRIX) by accelerating the learning curve that CPV must follow in order to reach the competitive market, and lowering the cost under the current flat panel PV significantly within 3-4 years. The use of CPV systems in remote areas, together with harsher radiation, ambient and infrastructure conditions will help to increase the rate of progress of this technology. In addition, the ISFOC s contribution, which brings together seven power plants from seven CPV technologies up to 3 MWpeak, will allow creating the most complete database of components and systems performance to be generated as well as the effects of radiation and meteorology on systems operations. Finally, regarding the new applications for CPV subject, the project will use a CPV system sized 25 kWp in a stand-alone station in Egypt (NWRC) for the first time for water pumping and irrigation purposes. In a similar way ISOFOTON will connect up to 25 kWp CPV to the Moroccan ONE utility grid. From the research content point of view of this project, which is directly addressed by the scope of the call, the cooperative research between UPM, FhG-ISE and the two companies will be favoured by the fact that all are progressing in similar directions: developing two-stage optics CPV systems. In addition to these technology improvements the UPM is very interested in developing a new concept of module, recently patented, which will fulfil all required characteristics of a good CPV with less components and reducing cost.

Functional validation of MB-OFDM system using HW-in the loop

Functional validation of complex digital systems is a hard and critical task in the design flow. In particular, when dealing with communication systems, like Multiband Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing Ultra Wideband (MB-OFDM UWB), the design decisions taken during the process have to be validated at different levels in an easy way. In this work, a unified algorithm-architecture-circuit co-design environment for this type of systems, to be implemented in FPGA, is presented. The main objective is to find an efficient methodology for designing a configurable optimized MB-OFDM UWB system by using as few efforts as possible in verification stage, so as to speed up the development period. Although this efficient design methodology is tested and considered to be suitable for almost all types of complex FPGA designs, we propose a solution where both the circuit and the communication channel are tested at different levels (algorithmic, RTL, hardware device) using a common testbench.

Reliability and quality in the area of statistical thinking in Engineering

There is remarkable growing concern about the quality control at the time, which has led to the search for methods capable of addressing effectively the reliability analysis as part of the Statistic. Managers, researchers and Engineers must understand that 'statistical thinking' is not just a set of statistical tools. They should start considering 'statistical thinking' from a 'system', which means, developing systems that meet specific statistical tools and other methodologies for an activity. The aim of this article is to encourage them (engineers, researchers and managers) to develop a new way of thinking.

Even-sowing pattern strategies for a low-input agricultural system in forage maize

The objective of this study was to verify the effectiveness of new patterns of sowing and to achieve a low-input organic system in two different environments (northern and southern Europe). The study was motivated by the hypothesis that more even sowing patterns (triangular and square) would significantly enhance the growth and yield of forage maize under widely varying conditions, compared with traditional mechanised rectangular seed patterns. An experiment was conducted in Madrid and duplicated in Copenhagen during 2010. A random block design was used with a 2 × 2 factorial arrangement based on two seed-sowing patterns: traditional (rectangular) and new (even) and two weed-management conditions (herbicide use and a low-input system). In both weed-management conditions and locations, the production of aerial maize biomass was greater for the new square seed patterns. In addition, the new pattern showed a greater effectiveness in the control of weeds, both at the initial crop stages (36 and 33% fewer weeds m-2 at the 4- and 8-leaf stages, respectively, in the Copenhagen field experiment) and at the final stage. The final weed biomass for the new pattern was 568 kg ha-1 lower for the Copenhagen experiment and 277 kg ha-1 lower in Madrid field experiments. In the light of these results, the new pattern could potentially reduce the use of herbicides. The results of the experiments support the hypothesis formulated at the beginning of this study that even-sowing patterns would be relatively favourable for the growth and yield of the maize crop. In the near future, new machinery could be used to achieve new seed patterns for the optimisation of biomass yield under low-input systems. This approach is effective because it promotes natural crop-weed competition.

Wireless measurement system for structural health monitoring with high time synchronization accuracy

Structural health monitoring (SHM) systems have excellent potential to improve the regular operation and maintenance of structures. Wireless networks (WNs) have been used to avoid the high cost of traditional generic wired systems. The most important limitation of SHM wireless systems is time-synchronization accuracy, scalability, and reliability. A complete wireless system for structural identification under environmental load is designed, implemented, deployed, and tested on three different real bridges. Our contribution ranges from the hardware to the graphical front end. System goal is to avoid the main limitations of WNs for SHM particularly in regard to reliability, scalability, and synchronization. We reduce spatial jitter to 125 ns, far below the 120 μs required for high-precision acquisition systems and much better than the 10-μs current solutions, without adding complexity. The system is scalable to a large number of nodes to allow for dense sensor coverage of real-world structures, only limited by a compromise between measurement length and mandatory time to obtain the final result. The system addresses a myriad of problems encountered in a real deployment under difficult conditions, rather than a simulation or laboratory test bed.

Wind intermittency and CO2 reductions: the case of the spanish power system

Renewable energy sources are believed to reduce drastically greenhouse gas emissions that would otherwise be generated from fossil fuels used to generate electricity. This implies that a unit of renewable energy will replace a unit of fossil-fuel, with its CO2 emissions, on an equivalent basis (with no other effects on the grid). But, the fuel economy and emissions in the existing power systems are not proportional with the electricity production of intermittent sources due to cycling of the fossil fuel plants that make up the balance of the grid (i.e. changing the power output makes thermal units to operate less efficiently). This study focuses in the interactions between wind generation and thermal plants cycling, by establishing the levels of extra fuel use caused by decreased efficiencies of fossil back-up for wind electricity in Spain. We analyze the production of all thermal plants in 2011, studying different scenarios where wind penetration causes major deviations in programming, while we define a procedure for quantifying the carbon reductions by using emission factors and efficiency curves from the existing installations. The objectives are to discuss the real contributions of renewable energies to the environmental targets as well as suggest alternatives that would improve the reliability of future power systems.

Resilience in Cloud Computing for Critical Systems. Resilience, Dependability, Reliability in the use of Cloud Computing in Critical Systems in Public Organizations.

La informática se está convirtiendo en la quinta utilidad (gas, agua, luz, teléfono) en parte debido al impacto de Cloud Computing en las mayorías de las organizaciones. Este uso de informática es usada por cada vez más tipos de sistemas, incluidos Sistemas Críticos. Esto tiene un impacto en la complejidad internad y la fiabilidad de los sistemas de la organización y los que se ofrecen a los clientes. Este trabajo investiga el uso de Cloud Computing por sistemas críticos, centrándose en las dependencias y especialmente en la fiabilidad de estos sistemas. Se han presentado algunos ejemplos de su uso, y aunque su utilización en sistemas críticos no está extendido, se presenta cual puede llegar a ser su impacto. El objetivo de este trabajo es primero definir un modelo que pueda representar de una forma cuantitativa las interdependencias en fiabilidad y interdependencia para las organizaciones que utilicen estos sistemas, y aplicar este modelo en un sistema crítico del campo de sanidad y mostrar sus resultados. Los conceptos de “macro-dependability” y “micro-dependability” son introducidos en el modelo para la definición de interdependencia y para analizar la fiabilidad de sistemas que dependen de otros sistemas. ABSTRACT With the increasing utilization of Internet services and cloud computing by most organizations (both private and public), it is clear that computing is becoming the 5th utility (along with water, electricity, telephony and gas). These technologies are used for almost all types of systems, and the number is increasing, including Critical Infrastructure systems. Even if Critical Infrastructure systems appear not to rely directly on cloud services, there may be hidden inter-dependencies. This is true even for private cloud computing, which seems more secure and reliable. The critical systems can began in some cases with a clear and simple design, but evolved as described by Egan to "rafted" networks. Because they are usually controlled by one or few organizations, even when they are complex systems, their dependencies can be understood. The organization oversees and manages changes. These CI systems have been affected by the introduction of new ICT models like global communications, PCs and the Internet. Even virtualization took more time to be adopted by Critical systems, due to their strategic nature, but once that these technologies have been proven in other areas, at the end they are adopted as well, for different reasons such as costs. A new technology model is happening now based on some previous technologies (virtualization, distributing and utility computing, web and software services) that are offered in new ways and is called cloud computing. The organizations are migrating more services to the cloud; this will have impact in their internal complexity and in the reliability of the systems they are offering to the organization itself and their clients. Not always this added complexity and associated risks to their reliability are seen. As well, when two or more CI systems are interacting, the risks of one can affect the rest, sharing the risks. This work investigates the use of cloud computing by critical systems, and is focused in the dependencies and reliability of these systems. Some examples are presented together with the associated risks. A framework is introduced for analysing the dependability and resilience of a system that relies on cloud services and how to improve them. As part of the framework, the concepts of micro and macro dependability are introduced to explain the internal and external dependability on services supplied by an external cloud. A pharmacovigilance model system has been used for framework validation.