19 resultados para Risk assessment Mathematical models


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Software architectural evaluation is a key discipline used to identify, at early stages of a real-time system (RTS) development, the problems that may arise during its operation. Typical mechanisms supporting concurrency, such as semaphores, mutexes or monitors, usually lead to concurrency problems in execution time that are difficult to be identified, reproduced and solved. For this reason, it is crucial to understand the root causes of these problems and to provide support to identify and mitigate them at early stages of the system lifecycle. This paper aims to present the results of a research work oriented to the development of the tool called ‘Deadlock Risk Evaluation of Architectural Models’ (DREAM) to assess deadlock risk in architectural models of an RTS. A particular architectural style, Pipelines of Processes in Object-Oriented Architectures–UML (PPOOA) was used to represent platform-independent models of an RTS architecture supported by the PPOOA –Visio tool. We validated the technique presented here by using several case studies related to RTS development and comparing our results with those from other deadlock detection approaches, supported by different tools. Here we present two of these case studies, one related to avionics and the other to planetary exploration robotics. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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One of the main concerns when conducting a dam test is the acute determination of the hydrograph for a specific flood event. The use of 2D direct rainfall hydraulic mathematical models on a finite elements mesh, combined with the efficiency of vector calculus that provides CUDA (Compute Unified Device Architecture) technology, enables nowadays the simulation of complex hydrological models without the need for terrain subbasin and transit splitting (as in HEC-HMS). Both the Spanish PNOA (National Plan of Aereal Orthophotography) Digital Terrain Model GRID with a 5 x 5 m accuracy and the CORINE GIS Land Cover (Coordination of INformation of the Environment) that allows assessment of the ground roughness, provide enough data to easily build these kind of models

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In crop insurance, the accuracy with which the insurer quantifies the actual risk is highly dependent on the availability on actual yield data. Crop models might be valuable tools to generate data on expected yields for risk assessment when no historical records are available. However, selecting a crop model for a specific objective, location and implementation scale is a difficult task. A look inside the different crop and soil modules to understand how outputs are obtained might facilitate model choice. The objectives of this paper were (i) to assess the usefulness of crop models to be used within a crop insurance analysis and design and (ii) to select the most suitable crop model for drought risk assessment in semi-arid regions in Spain. For that purpose first, a pre-selection of crop models simulating wheat yield under rainfed growing conditions at the field scale was made, and second, four selected models (Aquacrop, CERES- Wheat, CropSyst and WOFOST) were compared in terms of modelling approaches, process descriptions and model outputs. Outputs of the four models for the simulation of winter wheat growth are comparable when water is not limiting, but differences are larger when simulating yields under rainfed conditions. These differences in rainfed yields are mainly related to the dissimilar simulated soil water availability and the assumed linkages with dry matter formation. We concluded that for the simulation of winter wheat growth at field scale in such semi-arid conditions, CERES-Wheat and CropSyst are preferred. WOFOST is a satisfactory compromise between data availability and complexity when detail data on soil is limited. Aquacrop integrates physiological processes in some representative parameters, thus diminishing the number of input parameters, what is seen as an advantage when observed data is scarce. However, the high sensitivity of this model to low water availability limits its use in the region considered. Contrary to the use of ensembles of crop models, we endorse that efforts be concentrated on selecting or rebuilding a model that includes approaches that better describe the agronomic conditions of the regions in which they will be applied. The use of such complex methodologies as crop models is associated with numerous sources of uncertainty, although these models are the best tools available to get insight in these complex agronomic systems.

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Hazard and risk assessment of landslides with potentially long run-out is becoming more and more important. Numerical tools exploiting different constitutive models, initial data and numerical solution techniques are important for making the expert’s assessment more objective, even though they cannot substitute for the expert’s understanding of the site-specific conditions and the involved processes. This paper presents a depth-integrated model accounting for pore water pressure dissipation and applications both to real events and problems for which analytical solutions exist. The main ingredients are: (i) The mathematical model, which includes pore pressure dissipation as an additional equation. This makes possible to model flowslide problems with a high mobility at the beginning, the landslide mass coming to rest once pore water pressures dissipate. (ii) The rheological models describing basal friction: Bingham, frictional, Voellmy and cohesive-frictional viscous models. (iii) We have implemented simple erosion laws, providing a comparison between the approaches of Egashira, Hungr and Blanc. (iv) We propose a Lagrangian SPH model to discretize the equations, including pore water pressure information associated to the moving SPH nodes