Assessing urban mobility through participatory scenario building and combined utility-regret assessment

La planificación de la movilidad sostenible urbana es una tarea compleja que implica un alto grado de incertidumbre debido al horizonte de planificación a largo plazo, la amplia gama de paquetes de políticas posibles, la necesidad de una aplicación efectiva y eficiente, la gran escala geográfica, la necesidad de considerar objetivos económicos, sociales y ambientales, y la respuesta del viajero a los diferentes cursos de acción y su aceptabilidad política (Shiftan et al., 2003). Además, con las tendencias inevitables en motorización y urbanización, la demanda de terrenos y recursos de movilidad en las ciudades está aumentando dramáticamente. Como consecuencia de ello, los problemas de congestión de tráfico, deterioro ambiental, contaminación del aire, consumo de energía, desigualdades en la comunidad, etc. se hacen más y más críticos para la sociedad. Esta situación no es estable a largo plazo. Para enfrentarse a estos desafíos y conseguir un desarrollo sostenible, es necesario considerar una estrategia de planificación urbana a largo plazo, que aborde las necesarias implicaciones potencialmente importantes. Esta tesis contribuye a las herramientas de evaluación a largo plazo de la movilidad urbana estableciendo una metodología innovadora para el análisis y optimización de dos tipos de medidas de gestión de la demanda del transporte (TDM). La metodología nueva realizado se basa en la flexibilización de la toma de decisiones basadas en utilidad, integrando diversos mecanismos de decisión contrariedad‐anticipada y combinados utilidad‐contrariedad en un marco integral de planificación del transporte. La metodología propuesta incluye dos aspectos principales: 1) La construcción de escenarios con una o varias medidas TDM usando el método de encuesta que incorpora la teoría “regret”. La construcción de escenarios para este trabajo se hace para considerar específicamente la implementación de cada medida TDM en el marco temporal y marco espacial. Al final, se construyen 13 escenarios TDM en términos del más deseable, el más posible y el de menor grado de “regret” como resultado de una encuesta en dos rondas a expertos en el tema. 2) A continuación se procede al desarrollo de un marco de evaluación estratégica, basado en un Análisis Multicriterio de Toma de Decisiones (Multicriteria Decision Analysis, MCDA) y en un modelo “regret”. Este marco de evaluación se utiliza para comparar la contribución de los distintos escenarios TDM a la movilidad sostenible y para determinar el mejor escenario utilizando no sólo el valor objetivo de utilidad objetivo obtenido en el análisis orientado a utilidad MCDA, sino también el valor de “regret” que se calcula por medio del modelo “regret” MCDA. La función objetivo del MCDA se integra en un modelo de interacción de uso del suelo y transporte que se usa para optimizar y evaluar los impactos a largo plazo de los escenarios TDM previamente construidos. Un modelo de “regret”, llamado “referencedependent regret model (RDRM)” (modelo de contrariedad dependiente de referencias), se ha adaptado para analizar la contribución de cada escenario TDM desde un punto de vista subjetivo. La validación de la metodología se realiza mediante su aplicación a un caso de estudio en la provincia de Madrid. La metodología propuesta define pues un procedimiento técnico detallado para la evaluación de los impactos estratégicos de la aplicación de medidas de gestión de la demanda en el transporte, que se considera que constituye una herramienta de planificación útil, transparente y flexible, tanto para los planificadores como para los responsables de la gestión del transporte. Planning sustainable urban mobility is a complex task involving a high degree of uncertainty due to the long‐term planning horizon, the wide spectrum of potential policy packages, the need for effective and efficient implementation, the large geographical scale, the necessity to consider economic, social, and environmental goals, and the traveller’s response to the various action courses and their political acceptability (Shiftan et al., 2003). Moreover, with the inevitable trends on motorisation and urbanisation, the demand for land and mobility in cities is growing dramatically. Consequently, the problems of traffic congestion, environmental deterioration, air pollution, energy consumption, and community inequity etc., are becoming more and more critical for the society (EU, 2011). Certainly, this course is not sustainable in the long term. To address this challenge and achieve sustainable development, a long‐term perspective strategic urban plan, with its potentially important implications, should be established. This thesis contributes on assessing long‐term urban mobility by establishing an innovative methodology for optimizing and evaluating two types of transport demand management measures (TDM). The new methodology aims at relaxing the utility‐based decision‐making assumption by embedding anticipated‐regret and combined utilityregret decision mechanisms in an integrated transport planning framework. The proposed methodology includes two major aspects: 1) Construction of policy scenarios within a single measure or combined TDM policy‐packages using the survey method incorporating the regret theory. The purpose of building the TDM scenarios in this work is to address the specific implementation in terms of time frame and geographic scale for each TDM measure. Finally, 13 TDM scenarios are built in terms of the most desirable, the most expected and the least regret choice by means of the two‐round Delphi based survey. 2) Development of the combined utility‐regret analysis framework based on multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA). This assessment framework is used to compare the contribution of the TDM scenario towards sustainable mobility and to determine the best scenario considering not only the objective utility value obtained from the utilitybased MCDA, but also a regret value that is calculated via a regret‐based MCDA. The objective function of the utility‐based MCDA is integrated in a land use and transport interaction model and is used for optimizing and assessing the long term impacts of the constructed TDM scenarios. A regret based model, called referente dependent regret model (RDRM) is adapted to analyse the contribution of each TDM scenario in terms of a subjective point of view. The suggested methodology is implemented and validated in the case of Madrid. It defines a comprehensive technical procedure for assessing strategic effects of transport demand management measures, which can be useful, transparent and flexible planning tool both for planners and decision‐makers.

Integration of congestion pricing and intertemporal preferences rate integration in social welfare function

Many researchers have used theoretical or empirical measures to assess social benefits in transport policy implementation. However, few have measured social benefits by using discount rates, including the intertemporal preference rate of users, the private investment discount rate, and the intertemporal preference rate of the government. In general, the social discount rate used is the same for all social actors. This paper aims to assess a new method by integrating different types of discount rates belonging to different social actors to measure the real benefits of each actor in the short term, medium term, and long term. A dynamic simulation is provided by a strategic land use and transport interaction model. The method was tested by optimizing a cordon toll scheme in Madrid, Spain. Socioeconomic efficiency and environmental criteria were considered. On the basis of the modified social welfare function, the effects on the measure of social benefits were estimated and compared with the classical welfare function measures. The results show that the use of more suitable discount rates for each social actor had an effect on the selection and definition of optimal strategy of congestion pricing. The usefulness of the measure of congestion toll declines more quickly over time. This result could be the key to understanding the relationship between transport system policies and the distribution of social actors? benefits in a metropolitan context.

The forced oscillations of submerged bodies

The increasing use of very light structures in aerospace applications are given rise to the need of taking into account the effects of the surrounding media in the motion of a structure (as for instance, in modal testing of solar panels or antennae) as it is usually performed in the motion of bodies submerged in water in marine applications. New methods are in development aiming at to determine rigid-body properties (the center of mass position and inertia properties) from the results of oscillations tests (at low frequencies during modal testing, by exciting the rigid-body modes only) by using the equations of the rigid-body dynamics. As it is shown in this paper, the effect of the surrounding media significantly modifies the oscillation dynamics in the case of light structures and therefore this effect should be taken into account in the development of the above-mentioned methods. The aim of the paper is to show that, if a central point exists for the aerodynamic forces acting on the body, the motion equations for the small amplitude rotational and translational oscillations can be expressed in a form which is a generalization of the motion equations for a body in vacuum, thus allowing to obtain a physical idea of the motion and aerodynamic effects and also significantly simplifying the calculation of the solutions and the interpretation of the results. In the formulation developed here the translational oscillations and the rotational motion around the center of mass are decoupled, as is the case for the rigid-body motion in vacuum, whereas in the classical added mass formulation the six motion equations are coupled. Also in this paper the nonsteady motion of small amplitude of a rigid body submerged in an ideal, incompressible fluid is considered in order to define the conditions for the existence of the central point in the case of a three-dimensional body. The results here presented are also of interest in marine applications.

Comparison of dynamic effects of high-speed traffic load on ballasted track using a simplified two-dimensional and full three-dimensional model.

The vertical dynamic actions transmitted by railway vehicles to the ballasted track infrastructure is evaluated taking into account models with different degree of detail. In particular, we have studied this matter from a two-dimensional (2D) finite element model to a fully coupled three-dimensional (3D) multi-body finite element model. The vehicle and track are coupled via a non-linear Hertz contact mechanism. The method of Lagrange multipliers is used for the contact constraint enforcement between wheel and rail. Distributed elevation irregularities are generated based on power spectral density (PSD) distributions which are taken into account for the interaction. The numerical simulations are performed in the time domain, using a direct integration method for solving the transient problem due to the contact nonlinearities. The results obtained include contact forces, forces transmitted to the infrastructure (sleeper) by railpads and envelopes of relevant results for several track irregularities and speed ranges. The main contribution of this work is to identify and discuss coincidences and differences between discrete 2D models and continuum 3D models, as wheel as assessing the validity of evaluating the dynamic loading on the track with simplified 2D models

Analysis of the problems associated with dynamic interaction between train, track and structure at transition zones

El gran desarrollo experimentado por la alta velocidad en los principales países de la Unión Europea, en los últimos 30 años, hace que este campo haya sido y aún sea uno de los principales referentes en lo que a investigación se refiere. Por otra parte, la aparición del concepto super − alta velocidad hace que la investigación en el campo de la ingeniería ferroviaria siga adquiriendo importancia en los principales centros de investigación de los países en los que se desea implantar este modo de transporte, o en los que habiendo sido ya implantado, se pretenda mejorar. Las premisas de eficacia, eficiencia, seguridad y confort, que este medio de transporte tiene como razón de ser pueden verse comprometidas por diversos factores. Las zonas de transición, definidas en la ingeniería ferroviaria como aquellas secciones en las que se produce un cambio en las condiciones de soporte de la vía, pueden afectar al normal comportamiento para el que fue diseñada la infraestructura, comprometiendo seriamente los estándares de eficiencia en el tiempo de viaje, confort de los pasajeros y aumentando considerablemente los costes de mantenimiento de la vía, si no se toman las medidas oportunas. En esta tesis se realiza un estudio detallado de la zonas de transición, concretamente de aquellas en las que existe una cambio en la rigidez vertical de la vía debido a la presencia de un marco hidráulico. Para realizar dicho estudio se lleva a cabo un análisis numérico de interacción entre el vehículo y la estructura, con un modelo bidimensional de elemento finitos, calibrado experimentalmente, en estado de tensión plana. En este análisis se tiene en cuenta el efecto de las irregularidades de la vía y el comportamiento mecánico de la interfaz suelo-estructura, con el objetivo de reproducir de la forma más real posible el efecto de interacción entre el vehículo, la vía y la estructura. Otros efectos como la influencia de la velocidad del tren y los asientos diferenciales, debidos a deformaciones por consolidación de los terraplenes a ambos lados el marco hidráulico, son también analizados en este trabajo. En esta tesis, los cálculos de interacción se han llevado a cabo en dos fases diferentes. En la primera, se ha considerado una interacción sencilla debida al paso de un bogie de un tren Eurostar. Los cálculos derivados de esta fase se han denominado cálculos a corto plazo. En la segunda, se ha realizado un análisis considerando múltiples pasos de bogie del tren Eurostar, conformando un análisis de degradación en el que se tiene en cuenta, en cada ciclo, la deformación de la capa de balasto. Los cálculos derivados de esta fase, son denominados en el texto como cálculos a largo plazo. Los resultados analizados muestran que la utilización de los denominados elementos de contacto es fundamental cuando se desea estudiar la influencia de asientos diferenciales, especialmente en transiciones terraplén-estructura en las que la cuña de cimentación no llega hasta la base de cimentación de la estructura. Por otra parte, tener en cuenta los asientos del terraplén, es sumamente importante, cuando se desea realizar un análisis de degradación de la vía ya que su influencia en la interacción entre el vehículo y la vía es muy elevada, especialmente para valores altos de velocidad del tren. En cuanto a la influencia de las irregularidades de la vía, en los cálculos efectuados, se revela que su importancia es muy notable, siendo su influencia muy destacada cuanto mayor sea la velocidad del tren. En este punto cabe destacar la diferencia de resultados derivada de la consideración de perfiles de irregularidades de distinta naturaleza. Los resultados provenientes de considerar perfiles artificiales son en general muy elevados, siendo estos más apropiados para realizar estudios de otra índole, como por ejemplo de seguridad al descarrilamiento. Los resultados provenientes de perfiles reales, dados por diferentes Administradores ferroviarios, presentan resultados menos elevados y más propios del problema analizar. Su influencia en la interacción dinámica entre el vehículo y la vía es muy importante, especialmente para velocidades elevadas del tren. Además el fenómeno de degradación conocido como danza de traviesas, asociado a zonas de transición, es muy susceptible a la consideración de irregularidades de la vía, tal y como se desprende de los cálculos efectuados a largo plazo. The major development experienced by high speed in the main countries of the European Union, in the last 30 years, makes railway research one of the main references in the research field. It should also be mentioned that the emergence of the concept superhigh − speed makes research in the field of Railway Engineering continues to gain importance in major research centers in the countries in which this mode of transportation is already implemented or planned to be implemented. The characteristics that this transport has as rationale such as: effectiveness, efficiency, safety and comfort, may be compromised by several factors. The transition zones are defined in railway engineering as a region in which there is an abrupt change of track stiffness. This stiffness variation can affect the normal behavior for which the infrastructure has been designed, seriously compromising efficiency standards in the travel time, passenger comfort and significantly increasing the costs of track maintenance, if appropriate measures are not taken. In this thesis a detailed study of the transition zones has been performed, particularly of those in which there is a change in vertical stiffness of the track due to the presence of a reinforced concrete culvert. To perform such a study a numerical interaction analysis between the vehicle, the track and the structure has been developed. With this purpose a two-dimensional finite element model, experimentally calibrated, in a state of plane stress, has been used. The implemented numerical models have considered the effects of track irregularities and mechanical behavior of soil-structure interface, with the objective of reproducing as accurately as possible the dynamic interaction between the vehicle the track and the structure. Other effects such as the influence of train speed and differential settlement, due to secondary consolidation of the embankments on both sides of culvert, have also been analyzed. In this work, the interaction analysis has been carried out in two different phases. In the first part a simple interaction due to the passage of a bogie of a Eurostar train has been considered. Calculations derived from this phase have been named short-term analysis. In the second part, a multi-load assessment considering an Eurostar train bogie moving along the transition zone, has been performed. The objective here is to simulate a degradation process in which vertical deformation of the ballast layer was considered. Calculations derived from this phase have been named long-term analysis. The analyzed results show that the use of so-called contact elements is essential when one wants to analyze the influence of differential settlements, especially in embankment-structure transitions in which the wedge-shaped backfill does not reach the foundation base of the structure. Moreover, considering embankment settlement is extremely important when it is desired to perform an analysis of track degradation. In these cases the influence on the interaction behaviour between the vehicle and the track is very high, especially for higher values of speed train. Regarding the influence of the track irregularities, this study has proven that the track’s dynamic response is heavily influenced by the irregularity profile and that this influence is more important for higher train velocities. It should also be noted that the difference in results derived from consideration of irregularities profiles of different nature. The results coming from artificial profiles are generally very high, these might be more appropriate in order to study other effects, such as derailment safety. Results from real profiles, given by the monitoring works of different rail Managers, are softer and they fit better to the context of this thesis. The influence of irregularity profiles on the dynamic interaction between the train and the track is very important, especially for high-speeds of the train. Furthermore, the degradation phenomenon known as hanging sleepers, associated with transition zones, is very susceptible to the consideration of track irregularities, as it can be concluded from the long-term analysis.

Simulation of Freight Trains Equipped with Partially Filled Tank Containers and Related Resonance Phenomenon

To study the fluid motion-vehicle dynamics interaction, a model of four, liquid filled two-axle container freight wagons was set up. The railway vehicle has been modelled as a multi-body system (MBS). To include fluid sloshing, an equivalent mechanical model has been developed and incorporated. The influence of several factors has been studied in computer simulations, such as track defects, curve negotiation, train velocity, wheel wear, liquid and solid wagonload, and container baffles. SIMPACK has been used for MBS analysis, and ANSYS for liquid sloshing modelling and equivalent mechanical systems validation. Acceleration and braking manoeuvres of the freight train set the liquid cargo into motion. This longitudinal sloshing motion of the fluid cargo inside the tanks initiated a swinging motion of some components of the coupling gear. The coupling gear consists of UIC standard traction hooks and coupling screws that are located between buffers. One of the coupling screws is placed in the traction hook of the opposite wagon thus joining the two wagons, whereas the unused coupling screw rests on a hanger. Simulation results showed that, for certain combinations of type of liquid, filling level and container dimensions, the liquid cargo could provoke an undesirable, although not hazardous, release of the unused coupling screw from its hanger. The coupling screw's release was especially obtained when a period of acceleration was followed by an abrupt braking manoeuvre at 1 m/s2. It was shown that a resonance effect between the liquid's oscillation and the coupling screw's rotary motion could be the reason for the coupling screw's undesired release. Possible solutions to avoid the phenomenon are given.Acceleration and braking manoeuvres of the freight train set the liquid cargo into motion. This longitudinal sloshing motion of the fluid cargo inside the tanks initiated a swinging motion of some components of the coupling gear. The coupling gear consists of UIC standard traction hooks and coupling screws that are located between buffers. One of the coupling screws is placed in the traction hook of the opposite wagon thus joining the two wagons, whereas the unused coupling screw rests on a hanger. This paper reports on a study of the fluid motion-train vehicle dynamics interaction. In the study, a model of four, liquid-filled two-axle container freight wagons was developed. The railway vehicle has been modeled as a multi-body system (MBS). To include fluid sloshing, an equivalent mechanical model has been developed and incorporated. The influence of several factors has been studied in computer simulations, such as track defects, curve negotiation, train velocity, wheel wear, liquid and solid wagonload, and container baffles. A simulation program was used for MBS analysis, and a finite element analysis program was used for liquid sloshing modeling and equivalent mechanical systems validation. Acceleration and braking maneuvers of the freight train set the liquid cargo into motion. This longitudinal sloshing motion of the fluid cargo inside the tanks initiated a swinging motion of some components of the coupling gear. Simulation results showed that, for certain combinations of type of liquid, filling level and container dimensions, the liquid cargo could provoke an undesirable, although not hazardous, release of an unused coupling screw from its hanger. It was shown that a resonance effect between the liquid's oscillation and the coupling screw's rotary motion could be the reason for the coupling screw's undesired release. Solutions are suggested to avoid the resonance problem, and directions for future research are given.

Dynamic analysis of road vehicle-bridge systems under turbulent wind by means of Finite Element Models

When an automobile passes over a bridge dynamic effects are produced in vehicle and structure. In addition, the bridge itself moves when exposed to the wind inducing dynamic effects on the vehicle that have to be considered. The main objective of this work is to understand the influence of the different parameters concerning the vehicle, the bridge, the road roughness or the wind in the comfort and safety of the vehicles when crossing bridges. Non linear finite element models are used for structures and multibody dynamic models are employed for vehicles. The interaction between the vehicle and the bridge is considered by contact methods. Road roughness is described by the power spectral density (PSD) proposed by the ISO 8608. To consider that the profiles under right and left wheels are different but not independent, the hypotheses of homogeneity and isotropy are assumed. To generate the wind velocity history along the road the Sandia method is employed. The global problem is solved by means of the finite element method. First the methodology for modelling the interaction is verified in a benchmark. Following, the case of a vehicle running along a rigid road and subjected to the action of the turbulent wind is analyzed and the road roughness is incorporated in a following step. Finally the flexibility of the bridge is added to the model by making the vehicle run over the structure. The application of this methodology will allow to understand the influence of the different parameters in the comfort and safety of road vehicles crossing wind exposed bridges. Those results will help to recommend measures to make the traffic over bridges more reliable without affecting the structural integrity of the viaduct

Efectos dinámicos laterales en vehículos y puentes ferroviarios sometidos a la acción de vientos transversales

En las últimas décadas el aumento de la velocidad y la disminución del peso de los vehículos ferroviarios de alta velocidad ha provocado que aumente su riesgo de vuelco. Además, las exigencias de los trazados de las líneas exige en ocasiones la construcción de viaductos muy altos situados en zonas expuestas a fuertes vientos. Esta combinación puede poner en peligro la seguridad de la circulación. En esta tesis doctoral se estudian los efectos dinámicos que aparecen en los vehículos ferroviarios cuando circulan sobre viaductos en presencia de vientos transversales. Para ello se han desarrollado e implementado una serie de modelos numéricos que permiten estudiar estos efectos de una forma realista y general. Los modelos desarrollados permiten analizar la interacción dinámica tridimensional tren-estructura, formulada mediante coordenadas absolutas en un sistema de referencia inercial, en un contexto de elementos _nitos no lineales. Mediante estos modelos se pueden estudiar de forma realista casos extremos como el vuelco o descarrilamiento de los vehículos. Han sido implementados en Abaqus, utilizando sus capacidades para resolver sistemas multi-cuerpo para el vehículo y elementos finitos para la estructura. La interacción entre el vehículo y la estructura se establece a través del contacto entre rueda y carril. Para ello, se han desarrollado una restricción, que permite establecer la relación cinemática entre el eje ferroviario y la vía, teniendo en cuenta los posibles defectos geométricos de la vía; y un modelo de contacto rueda-carril para establecer la interacción entre el vehículo y la estructura. Las principales características del modelo de contacto son: considera la geometría real de ambos cuerpos de forma tridimensional; permite resolver situaciones en las que el contacto entre rueda y carril se da en más de una zona a la vez; y permite utilizar distintas formulaciones para el cálculo de la tensión tangencial entre ambos cuerpos. Además, se ha desarrollado una metodología para determinar, a partir de formulaciones estocásticas, las historias temporales de cargas aerodinámicas debidas al viento turbulento en estructuras grandes y con pilas altas y flexibles. Esta metodología tiene cuenta la variabilidad espacial de la velocidad de viento, considerando la correlación entre los distintos puntos; considera las componentes de la velocidad del viento en tres dimensiones; y permite el cálculo de la velocidad de viento incidente sobre los vehículos que atraviesan la estructura. La metodología desarrollada en este trabajo ha sido implementada, validada y se ha aplicado a un caso concreto en el que se ha estudiado la respuesta de un tren de alta velocidad, similar al Siemens Velaro, circulando sobre el viaducto del río Ulla en presencia viento cruzado. En este estudio se ha analizado la seguridad y el confort de la circulación y la respuesta dinámica de la estructura cuando el tren cruza el viaducto. During the last decades the increase of the speed and the reduction of the weight of high-speed railway vehicles has led to a rise of the overturn risk. In addition, the design requests of the railway lines require some times the construction of very tall viaducts in strong wind areas. This combination may endanger the traffic safety. In this doctoral thesis the dynamic effects that appear in the railway vehicles when crossing viaducts under strong winds are studied. For this purpose it has been developed and implemented numerical models for studying these effects in a realistic and general way. The developed models allow to analyze the train-structure three-dimensional dynamic interaction, that is formulated by using absolute coordinates in an inertial reference frame within a non-linear finite element framework. By means of these models it is possible to study in a realistic way extreme situations such vehicle overturn or derailment. They have been implemented for Abaqus, by using its capabilities for solving multi-body systems for the vehicle and finite elements for the structure. The interaction between the vehicle and the structure is established through the wheel-rail contact. For this purpose, a constraint has been developed. It allows to establish the kinematic relationship between the railway wheelset and the track, taking into account the track irregularities. In addition, a wheel-rail contact model for establishing the interaction of the vehicle and the structure has been developed. The main features of the contact model are: it considers the real geometry During the last decades the increase of the speed and the reduction of the weight of high-peed railway vehicles has led to a rise of the overturn risk. In addition, the design requests of the railway lines require some times the construction of very tall viaducts in strong wind areas. This combination may endanger the traffic safety. In this doctoral thesis the dynamic effects that appear in the railway vehicles when crossing viaducts under strong winds are studied. For this purpose it has been developed and implemented numerical models for studying these effects in a realistic and general way. The developed models allow to analyze the train-structure three-dimensional dynamic interaction, that is formulated by using absolute coordinates in an inertial reference frame within a non-linear finite element framework. By means of these models it is possible to study in a realistic way extreme situations such vehicle overturn or derailment. They have been implemented for Abaqus, by using its capabilities for solving multi-body systems for the vehicle and finite elements for the structure. The interaction between the vehicle and the structure is established through the wheel-rail contact. For this purpose, a constraint has been developed. It allows to establish the kinematic relationship between the railway wheelset and the track, taking into account the track irregularities. In addition, a wheel-rail contact model for establishing the interaction of the vehicle and the structure has been developed. The main features of the contact model are: it considers the real geometry

Analysing the complexity of the model-based decision making processes within the industrial management context

PURPOSE The decision-making process plays a key role in organizations. Every decision-making process produces a final choice that may or may not prompt action. Recurrently, decision makers find themselves in the dichotomous question of following a traditional sequence decision-making process where the output of a decision is used as the input of the next stage of the decision, or following a joint decision-making approach where several decisions are taken simultaneously. The implication of the decision-making process will impact different players of the organization. The choice of the decision- making approach becomes difficult to find, even with the current literature and practitioners’ knowledge. The pursuit of better ways for making decisions has been a common goal for academics and practitioners. Management scientists use different techniques and approaches to improve different types of decisions. The purpose of this decision is to use the available resources as well as possible (data and techniques) to achieve the objectives of the organization. The developing and applying of models and concepts may be helpful to solve managerial problems faced every day in different companies. As a result of this research different decision models are presented to contribute to the body of knowledge of management science. The first models are focused on the manufacturing industry and the second part of the models on the health care industry. Despite these models being case specific, they serve the purpose of exemplifying that different approaches to the problems and could provide interesting results. Unfortunately, there is no universal recipe that could be applied to all the problems. Furthermore, the same model could deliver good results with certain data and bad results for other data. A framework to analyse the data before selecting the model to be used is presented and tested in the models developed to exemplify the ideas. METHODOLOGY As the first step of the research a systematic literature review on the joint decision is presented, as are the different opinions and suggestions of different scholars. For the next stage of the thesis, the decision-making process of more than 50 companies was analysed in companies from different sectors in the production planning area at the Job Shop level. The data was obtained using surveys and face-to-face interviews. The following part of the research into the decision-making process was held in two application fields that are highly relevant for our society; manufacturing and health care. The first step was to study the interactions and develop a mathematical model for the replenishment of the car assembly where the problem of “Vehicle routing problem and Inventory” were combined. The next step was to add the scheduling or car production (car sequencing) decision and use some metaheuristics such as ant colony and genetic algorithms to measure if the behaviour is kept up with different case size problems. A similar approach is presented in a production of semiconductors and aviation parts, where a hoist has to change from one station to another to deal with the work, and a jobs schedule has to be done. However, for this problem simulation was used for experimentation. In parallel, the scheduling of operating rooms was studied. Surgeries were allocated to surgeons and the scheduling of operating rooms was analysed. The first part of the research was done in a Teaching hospital, and for the second part the interaction of uncertainty was added. Once the previous problem had been analysed a general framework to characterize the instance was built. In the final chapter a general conclusion is presented. FINDINGS AND PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS The first part of the contributions is an update of the decision-making literature review. Also an analysis of the possible savings resulting from a change in the decision process is made. Then, the results of the survey, which present a lack of consistency between what the managers believe and the reality of the integration of their decisions. In the next stage of the thesis, a contribution to the body of knowledge of the operation research, with the joint solution of the replenishment, sequencing and inventory problem in the assembly line is made, together with a parallel work with the operating rooms scheduling where different solutions approaches are presented. In addition to the contribution of the solving methods, with the use of different techniques, the main contribution is the framework that is proposed to pre-evaluate the problem before thinking of the techniques to solve it. However, there is no straightforward answer as to whether it is better to have joint or sequential solutions. Following the proposed framework with the evaluation of factors such as the flexibility of the answer, the number of actors, and the tightness of the data, give us important hints as to the most suitable direction to take to tackle the problem. RESEARCH LIMITATIONS AND AVENUES FOR FUTURE RESEARCH In the first part of the work it was really complicated to calculate the possible savings of different projects, since in many papers these quantities are not reported or the impact is based on non-quantifiable benefits. The other issue is the confidentiality of many projects where the data cannot be presented. For the car assembly line problem more computational power would allow us to solve bigger instances. For the operation research problem there was a lack of historical data to perform a parallel analysis in the teaching hospital. In order to keep testing the decision framework it is necessary to keep applying more case studies in order to generalize the results and make them more evident and less ambiguous. The health care field offers great opportunities since despite the recent awareness of the need to improve the decision-making process there are many opportunities to improve. Another big difference with the automotive industry is that the last improvements are not spread among all the actors. Therefore, in the future this research will focus more on the collaboration between academia and the health care sector.

Video analysis based vehicle detection and tracking using an MCMC sampling framework

This article presents a probabilistic method for vehicle detection and tracking through the analysis of monocular images obtained from a vehicle-mounted camera. The method is designed to address the main shortcomings of traditional particle filtering approaches, namely Bayesian methods based on importance sampling, for use in traffic environments. These methods do not scale well when the dimensionality of the feature space grows, which creates significant limitations when tracking multiple objects. Alternatively, the proposed method is based on a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach, which allows efficient sampling of the feature space. The method involves important contributions in both the motion and the observation models of the tracker. Indeed, as opposed to particle filter-based tracking methods in the literature, which typically resort to observation models based on appearance or template matching, in this study a likelihood model that combines appearance analysis with information from motion parallax is introduced. Regarding the motion model, a new interaction treatment is defined based on Markov random fields (MRF) that allows for the handling of possible inter-dependencies in vehicle trajectories. As for vehicle detection, the method relies on a supervised classification stage using support vector machines (SVM). The contribution in this field is twofold. First, a new descriptor based on the analysis of gradient orientations in concentric rectangles is dened. This descriptor involves a much smaller feature space compared to traditional descriptors, which are too costly for real-time applications. Second, a new vehicle image database is generated to train the SVM and made public. The proposed vehicle detection and tracking method is proven to outperform existing methods and to successfully handle challenging situations in the test sequences.

Simulation model for the study of overhead rail current collector systems dynamics, focused on the design of a new conductor rail

Overhead rigid conductor arrangements for current collection for railway traction have some advantages compared to other, more conventional, energy supply systems. They are simple, robust and easily maintained, not to mention their flexibility as to the required height for installation, which makes them particularly suitable for use in subway infrastructures. Nevertheless, due to the increasing speeds of new vehicles running on modern subway lines, a more efficient design is required for this kind of system. In this paper, the authors present a dynamic analysis of overhead conductor rail systems focused on the design of a new conductor profile with a dynamic behaviour superior to that of the system currently in use. This means that either an increase in running speed can be attained, which at present does not exceed 110 km/h, or an increase in the distance between the rigid catenary supports with the ensuing saving in installation costs. This study has been carried out using simulation techniques. The ANSYS programme has been used for the finite element modelling and the SIMPACK programme for the elastic multibody systems analysis.

Application of virtual certification techniques to vehicle design and track maintenance

Virtual certification partially substitutes by computer simulations the experimental techniques required for rail vehicle certification. In this paper, several works were these techniques were used in the vehicle design and track maintenance processes are presented. Dynamic simulation of multibody systems was used to virtually apply the EN14363 standard to certify the dynamic behaviour of vehicles. The works described are: assessment of a freight bogie design adapted to meter-gauge, assessment of a railway track layout for a subway network, freight bogie design with higher speed and axle load, and processing of the data acquired by a track recording vehicle for track maintenance.

Determinant factors to discriminate the body weight loss in overweight people

Introduction. Most studies have described how the weight loss is when different treatments are compared (1-3), while others have also compared the weight loss by sex (4), or have taken into account psychosocial (5) and lifestyle (6, 7) variables. However, no studies have examined the interaction of different variables and the importance of them in the weight loss. Objective. Create a model to discriminate the range of weight loss, determining the importance of each variable. Methods. 89 overweight people (BMI: 25-29.9 kg?m-2), aged from 18 to 50 years, participated in the study. Four types of treatments were randomly assigned: strength training (S), endurance training (E), strength and endurance training (SE), and control group (C). All participants followed a 25% calorie restriction diet. Two multivariate discriminant models including the variables age, sex, height, daily energy expenditure (EE), type of treatment (T), caloric restriction (CR), initial body weight (BW), initial fat mass (FM), initial muscle mass (MM) and initial bone mineral density (BMD) were performed having into account two groups: the first and fourth quartile of the % of weight loss in the first model; the groups above and below the mean of the % of weight loss in the second model. The discriminant models were built using the inclusion method in SPSS allowing us to find a function that could predict the body weight loss range that an overweight person could achieve in a 6 months weight loss intervention.Results. The first discriminant analysis predicted that a combination of the studied variables would discriminate between the two ranges of body weight loss with 81.4% of correct classification. The discriminant function obtained was (Wilks? Lambda=0.475, p=0.003): Discriminant score=-18.266-(0.060xage)- (1.282xsex[0=female;1=male])+(14.701xheight)+(0.002xEE)- (0.006xT[1=S;2=E;3=SE;4=C])-(0.047xCR)- (0.558xBW)+(0.475xFM)+(0.398xMM)+(3.499xBMD) The second discriminant model obtained would discriminate between the two groups of body weight loss with 74.4% of correct classification. The discriminant function obtained was (Wilks? Lambda=0.725, p=0.005): Discriminant score=-5.021-(0.052xage)- (0.543xsex[0=female;1=male])+(3.530xheight)+(0.001xEE)- (0.493xT[1=S;2=E;3=SE;4=C])+(0.003xCR)- (0.365xBW)+(0.368xFM)+(0.296xMM)+(4.034xBMD) Conclusion. The first developed model could predict the percentage of weight loss in the following way: if the discriminant score is close to 1.051, the range of weight loss will be from 7.44 to -4.64% and if it is close to - 1.003, the range will be from -11.03 to -25,00% of the initial body weight. With the second model if the discriminant score is close to 0.623 the body weight loss will be above -7.93% and if it is close to -0.595 will be below - 7.93% of the initial body weight. References. 1. Brochu M, et al. Resistance training does not contribute to improving the metabolic profile after a 6-month weight loss program in overweight and obese postmenopausal women. J Clin Endocrinol Metab. 2009 Sep;94(9):3226-33. 2. Del Corral P, et al. Effect of dietary adherence with or without exercise on weight loss: a mechanistic approach to a global problem. J Clin Endocrinol Metab. 2009 May;94(5):1602-7. 3. Larson-Meyer DE, et al. Caloric Restriction with or without Exercise: The Fitness vs. Fatness Debate. Med Sci Sports Exerc. 2010;42(1):152-9. 4. Hagan RD, et al. The effects of aerobic conditioning and/or caloric restriction in overweight men and women. Medicine & Science in Sports & Exercise. 1986;18(1):87-94. 5. Teixeira PJ, et al. Mediators of weight loss and weight loss maintenance in middle-aged women. Obesity (Silver Spring). 2010 Apr;18(4):725-35. 6. Bautista-Castano I, et al. Variables predictive of adherence to diet and physical activity recommendations in the treatment of obesity and overweight, in a group of Spanish subjects. Int J Obes Relat Metab Disord. 2004 May;28(5):697-705.

Dynamic Analysis of high Speed Railway Traffic Loads on Ballasted Track

This paper reports the studies carried out to develop and calibrate the optimal models for the objectives of this work. In particular, quarter bogie model for vehicle, rail-wheel contact with Lagrangian multiplier method, 2D spatial discretization were selected as the optimal decisions. Furthermore, the 3D model of coupled vehicle-track also has been developed to contrast the results obtained in the 2D model. The calculations were carried out in the time domain and envelopes of relevant results were obtained for several track profiles and speed ranges. Distributed elevation irregularities were generated based on power spectral density (PSD) distributions. The results obtained include the wheel-rail contact forces, forces transmitted to the bogie by primary suspension. The latter loads are relevant for the purpose of evaluating the performance of the infrastructure

The Dynamics of High-Speed Railway Bridges: A Review of Design Issues and New Research for Lateral Dynamics

The dynamic effects of high-speed trains on viaducts are important issues for the design of the structures, as well as for the consideration of safe running conditions for the trains. In this work we start by reviewing the relevance of some basic design aspects. The significance of impact factor envelopes for moving loads is considered first. Resonance which may be achieved for high-speed trains requires dynamic analysis, for which some key aspects are discussed. The relevance of performing a longitudinal distribution of axle loads, the number of modes taken in analysis, and the consideration of vehicle-structure interaction are discussed with representative examples. The lateral dynamic effects of running trains on bridges is of importance for laterally compliant viaducts, such as some very tall structures erected in new high-speed lines. The relevance of this study is mainly for the safety of the traffic, considering both internal actions such as the hunting motion as well as external actions such as wind or earthquakes [1]. These studies require three-dimensional dynamic coupled vehicle-bridge models, and consideration of wheel to rail contact, a phenomenon which is complex and costly to model in detail. We describe here a fully nonlinear coupled model, described in absolute coordinates and incorporated into a commercial finite element framework [2]. The wheel-rail contact has been considered using a FastSim algorithm which provides a compromise between accuracy and computational cost, and captures the main nonlinear response of the contact interface. Two applications are presented, firstly to a vehicle subject to a strong wind gust traversing a bridge, showing the relevance of the nonlinear wheel-rail contact model as well as the dynamic interaction between bridge and vehicle. The second application is to a real HS viaduct with a long continuous deck and tall piers and high lateral compliance [3]. The results show the safety of the traffic as well as the importance of considering features such as track alignment irregularities.