Modelización de servicios ecosistémicos en una cuenca hidrológica del área mediterránea = Modeling ecosystem services in a mediterranean area river basin

La modelización es un proceso por el que se obtienen modelos de los procesos del ´mundo real´ mediante la utilización de simplificaciones. Sin embargo, las estimaciones obtenidas con el modelo llevan implícitas incertidumbre que se debe evaluar. Mediante un análisis de sensibilidad se puede mejorar la confianza en los resultados, sin embargo, este paso a veces no se realiza debido básicamente al trabajo que lleva consigo este tipo de análisis. Además, al crear un modelo, hay que mantener un equilibrio entre la obtención de resultados lo más exactos posible mediante un modelo lo más sencillo posible. Por ello, una vez creado un modelo, es imprescindible comprobar si es necesario o no incluir más procesos que en un principio no se habían incluido. Los servicios ecosistémicos son los procesos mediante los cuales los ecosistemas mantienen y satisfacen el bienestar humano. La importancia que los servicios ecosistémicos y sus beneficios asociados tienen, junto con la necesidad de realizar una buena gestión de los mismos, han estimulado la aparición de modelos y herramientas para cuantificarlos. InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradoffs) es una de estas herramientas específicas para calcular servicios eco-sistémicos, desarrollada por Natural Capital Project (Universidad de Stanford, EEUU). Como resultado del creciente interés en calcular los servicios eco-sistémicos, se prevé un incremento en la aplicación del InVEST. La investigación desarrollada en esta Tesis pretende ayudar en esas otras importantes fases necesarias después de la creación de un modelo, abarcando los dos siguientes trabajos. El primero es la aplicación de un análisis de sensibilidad al modelo en una cuenca concreta mediante la metodología más adecuada. El segundo es relativo a los procesos dentro de la corriente fluvial que actualmente no se incluyen en el modelo mediante la creación y aplicación de una metodología que estudiara el papel que juegan estos procesos en el modelo InVEST de retención de nutrientes en el área de estudio. Los resultados de esta Tesis contribuirán a comprender la incertidumbre involucrada en el proceso de modelado. También pondrá de manifiesto la necesidad de comprobar el comportamiento de un modelo antes de utilizarlo y en el momento de interpretar los resultados obtenidos. El trabajo en esta Tesis contribuirá a mejorar la plataforma InVEST, que es una herramienta importante en el ámbito de los servicios de los ecosistemas. Dicho trabajo beneficiará a los futuros usuarios de la herramienta, ya sean investigadores (en investigaciones futuras), o técnicos (en futuros trabajos de toma de decisiones o gestión ecosistemas). ABSTRACT Modeling is the process to idealize real-world situations through simplifications in order to obtain a model. However, model estimations lead to uncertainties that have to be evaluated formally. The role of the sensitivity analysis (SA) is to assign model output uncertainty based on the inputs and can increase confidence in model, however, it is often omitted in modelling, usually as a result of the growing effort it involves. In addition, the balance between accuracy and simplicity is not easy to assess. For this reason, when a model is developed, it is necessary to test it in order to understand its behavior and to include, if necessary, more complexity to get a better response. Ecosystem services are the conditions and processes through which natural ecosystems, and their constituent species, sustain and fulfill human life. The relevance of ecosystem services and the need to better manage them and their associated benefits have stimulated the emergence of models and tools to measure them. InVEST, Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradoffs, is one of these ecosystem services-specific tools developed by the Natural Capital Project (Stanford University, USA). As a result of the growing interest in measuring ecosystem services, the use of InVEST is anticipated to grow exponentially in the coming years. However, apart from model development, making a model involves other crucial stages such as its evaluation and application in order to validate estimations. The work developed in this thesis tries to help in this relevant and imperative phase of the modeling process, and does so in two different ways. The first one is to conduct a sensitivity analysis of the model, which consists in choosing and applying a methodology in an area and analyzing the results obtained. The second is related to the in-stream processes that are not modeled in the current model, and consists in creating and applying a methodology for testing the streams role in the InVEST nutrient retention model in a case study, analyzing the results obtained. The results of this Thesis will contribute to the understanding of the uncertainties involved in the modeling process. It will also illustrate the need to check the behavior of every model developed before putting them in production and illustrate the importance of understanding their behavior in terms of correctly interpreting the results obtained in light of uncertainty. The work in this thesis will contribute to improve the InVEST platform, which is an important tool in the field of ecosystem services. Such work will benefit future users, whether they are researchers (in their future research), or technicians (in their future work in ecosystem conservation or management decisions).

Autonomous classification models in ubiquitous environments

Stream-mining approach is defined as a set of cutting-edge techniques designed to process streams of data in real time, in order to extract knowledge. In the particular case of classification, stream-mining has to adapt its behaviour to the volatile underlying data distributions, what has been called concept drift. Moreover, it is important to note that concept drift may lead to situations where predictive models become invalid and have therefore to be updated to represent the actual concepts that data poses. In this context, there is a specific type of concept drift, known as recurrent concept drift, where the concepts represented by data have already appeared in the past. In those cases the learning process could be saved or at least minimized by applying a previously trained model. This could be extremely useful in ubiquitous environments that are characterized by the existence of resource constrained devices. To deal with the aforementioned scenario, meta-models can be used in the process of enhancing the drift detection mechanisms used by data stream algorithms, by representing and predicting when the change will occur. There are some real-world situations where a concept reappears, as in the case of intrusion detection systems (IDS), where the same incidents or an adaptation of them usually reappear over time. In these environments the early prediction of drift by means of a better knowledge of past models can help to anticipate to the change, thus improving efficiency of the model regarding the training instances needed. By means of using meta-models as a recurrent drift detection mechanism, the ability to share concepts representations among different data mining processes is open. That kind of exchanges could improve the accuracy of the resultant local model as such model may benefit from patterns similar to the local concept that were observed in other scenarios, but not yet locally. This would also improve the efficiency of training instances used during the classification process, as long as the exchange of models would aid in the application of already trained recurrent models, that have been previously seen by any of the collaborative devices. Which it is to say that the scope of recurrence detection and representation is broaden. In fact the detection, representation and exchange of concept drift patterns would be extremely useful for the law enforcement activities fighting against cyber crime. Being the information exchange one of the main pillars of cooperation, national units would benefit from the experience and knowledge gained by third parties. Moreover, in the specific scope of critical infrastructures protection it is crucial to count with information exchange mechanisms, both from a strategical and technical scope. The exchange of concept drift detection schemes in cyber security environments would aid in the process of preventing, detecting and effectively responding to threads in cyber space. Furthermore, as a complement of meta-models, a mechanism to assess the similarity between classification models is also needed when dealing with recurrent concepts. In this context, when reusing a previously trained model a rough comparison between concepts is usually made, applying boolean logic. The introduction of fuzzy logic comparisons between models could lead to a better efficient reuse of previously seen concepts, by applying not just equal models, but also similar ones. This work faces the aforementioned open issues by means of: the MMPRec system, that integrates a meta-model mechanism and a fuzzy similarity function; a collaborative environment to share meta-models between different devices; a recurrent drift generator that allows to test the usefulness of recurrent drift systems, as it is the case of MMPRec. Moreover, this thesis presents an experimental validation of the proposed contributions using synthetic and real datasets.

Juan Navarro Baldeweg : el dibujo de la mano como herramienta en el proceso creativo

Esta investigación es una incursión en el tránsito de Juan Navarro desde sus “habitaciones y horizontes”, las manifestaciones espontáneas de la mano y el proyectar, a la obra que nos devuelve a la experiencia física y corporal del mundo. Juan Navarro debe a sus manos gran parte de sus inquietudes y capacidades. Sus manos están presentes en su obra como materia –piezas de manos-, como herramienta -el dibujo por la mano- y como desencadenante en los procesos creativos de su obra de arquitectura. Las distintas obras remiten a una preocupación común: la de visualizar el espacio a través de un imaginario personal. Sin embargo, el proceso creativo en cada disciplina se desarrolla teniendo en cuenta la especificidad del medio y la experiencia que provoca en el espectador. La obra, como concreción del proceso creativo, se explica por las continuidades y discontinuidades entre las herramientas, mecanismos y estrategias utilizadas en los distintos medios. La tesis se estructura en dos partes, en la primera se estudia cómo se producen los procesos creativos, sus mecanismos en los distintos medios plásticos y el dibujo como herramienta transversal. Se identifican los conceptos y temas que dan lugar a la obra profundizando en el papel de la mano como presencia orgánica, biológica y responsable de una forma de representación personal. La segunda parte se articula en dos capítulos que, a través del dibujo, muestran la arquitectura como modelo e identifican los mecanismos utilizados en su forma de proyectar y su relación con la obra en distintos proyectos. El texto se estructura como una secuencia de ideas articuladas alrededor de un universo gráfico que nos conduce por múltiples itinerarios desde los que atisbar los procesos creativos de Juan Navarro. Estos caminos son hilos con los que se teje una visión personal de la relación entre las herramientas y mecanismos utilizados por Juan Navarro y su obra. La manera cómo se produce el proceso creativo, los mecanismos y las herramientas que los ponen en marcha constituyen una forma de abordar la obra, que hasta la fecha, se ha tratado aisladamente sin una intención de construir un cuerpo estructurado de conocimiento. En la arquitectura Juan Navarro existe un vacío de conocimiento teórico y gráfico sobre el propio proceso y su forma de proyectar. Se ha persistido en la explicación de la obra, sus referencias, temas abordados, relaciones y trasvases sin ahondar en la especificidad del medio. Estos vacíos establecen la necesidad y justificación de esta tesis doctoral. La investigación comienza descifrando una obra que desde sus inicios trabaja con la dualidad de lo gestual y lo conceptual. Plantea una forma de ordenación del mundo, de la sensación sometida a la medida en la que finalmente la obra se recibe como signo que desencadena sentimientos y te devuelve al mundo. Propone la recuperación de los sentidos a través de una arquitectura como vivencia no reductible al espacio geométrico. Identifica los mecanismos y herramientas que se establecen en este proceso y termina concluyendo que el dibujo es la herramienta doblemente transversal porque atiende de forma desigual a las distintas disciplinas y a los dos extremos en que se presenta la actividad creatividad en el trabajo de Juan Navarro. Estos extremos se corresponden con un conocimiento corporal inconsciente y un trabajo constante guiado por la motivación, la predeterminación y la conceptualización. El dibujo por la mano es el espacio de encuentro entre lo que representa la mano y la posibilidad de expresión proyectual codificada. Se produce en un territorio que se extiende desde lo analógico subyacente –que se nutre de imágenes complejas- y el dominio simbólico construido. Abstract. This research is a foray into Juan Navarro’s transition from his "Rooms and Horizons", -spontaneous demonstrations of the hand-, to the project, -the work that brings us back to experiencing the physical world-. Juan Navarro owes his hands much of his capacities and inquisitiveness. His hands are present in his work as the subject –“Hand Pieces”-, as a tool -through hand-drawing - and as a trigger in the creative processes of his work of architecture. The various works refer to a common theme: the viewing space through a personal imagery. However, the creative process in each discipline develops taking into account the specificity of the medium and the experience that arouses in the observer. The work, as completion of the creative process, is explained by the continuities and discontinuities between the tools, mechanisms and strategies used in the different media. The thesis is structured in two parts, the first studies how the creative processes are iniciated, their mechanisms in the different plastic art media, as well as drawing as a transversal tool. In this section the investigation identifies the concepts and themes that give rise to the art work, exploring the role of the hand as the organic, biological presence responsible for a way of personal representation. The second part is divided into two chapters, which, via the drawing, show the architecture as a model and identify the mechanisms used in the his way of projecting form of the project and its the relationship of hand-drawing to with his work ilustrated with different projects. The text is structured as a sequence of ideas, articulated around a graphic universe that leads us by multiple paths, letting us glimpse into the creative processes of Juan Navarro. These paths are threads that weave a personal vision of the relationship between the tools and mechanisms used by Juan Navarro in his work. The way the creative process takes place, the mechanisms and tools that set it in action, constitutes a way of dealing with the work, that, hithergo, has been treated in isolation without an intention to build a structured body of knowledge. In Navarro Baldeweg’s architecture there is a vacuum of theoretical and graphic knowledge of the process itself and his way of projecting. So far, emphasis has been placed mainly on his work’s explanation, its references, the subjects covered, connections and transfers, without delving into the specificity of each medium. These academic gaps justify the need for this doctoral thesis. The investigation begins deciphering a work that, since its very beginning, deals with the duality of the gesture and the concept. It poses a way of managing the world and the sensations which are submitted until it finally detects the work as a sign that triggers feelings and returns the observer to the real world. It proposes the recovery of the senses through an architecture that is sensed as an experience and not merely reduced to geometric space. It identifies the mechanisms and tools that are set out in this process and concludes that drawing is a core tool working in two directions, because it caters unevenly to the various disciplines and to both ends of the creative activity presented in the work of Juan Navarro. These ends correspond with an unconscious physical knowledge and a continuous work guided by motivation, predetermination and conceptualization. Hand-drawing is the meeting space between what the hand represents, and the possibility of an encoded, projectual expression. Thus, hand-drawing takes place in a territory that covers the underlying analogue - which feeds on complex images - to the symbolic built domain.

A non-linear analysis of lying a floating pipeline on the seabed

In this article, a model for the determination of displacements, deformations and tensions of a submarine pipeline during the construction is presented. The process is carried out from an initial floating situation to the final laying position on the seabed. The existence of currents and small waves are also considered. Firstly, this technique, usually applied to polyethylene pipelines, is described in this paper as well as some real world examples, as well as the variables that can be modified to control the behavior of the structure. A detailed description of the actions in this process is considered, specially the ones related to marine environment, as Archimedes force, current and sea waves. The behavior of the pipeline is modeled with a non linear elasto dynamic model where geometric non linearities are taken into account. A 3-D beam model, without cross section deformation effects, is developed. Special care is taken in the numerical analysis, developed within an updated lagrangian formulation framework, with the sea bed contact, the follower forces due to the external water pressures and the dynamic actions. Finally, some subroutines are implemented into ANSYS to simulate the two dimensional case, where the whole construction process is achieved. With this software, a sensibility analysis of the bending moments, axial forces and stresses obtained with different values of the control variables in order to optimize the construction steps. These control variables are, the axial load in the pipe, the inundated inner length and the distance of the control barge from the coast.