Analyzing climate change adaptation in the agriculture and water sectors: screening risks and opportunities.

As part of the Mediterranean area, the Guadiana basin in Spain is particularly exposed to increasing water stress due to climate change. Future warmer and drier climate will have negative implications for the sustainability of water resources and irrigation agriculture, the main socio- economic sector in the region. This paper illustrates a systematic analysis of climate change impacts and adaptation in the Guadiana basin based on a two-stage modeling approach. First, an integrated hydro-economic modeling framework was used to simulate the potential effects of regional climate change scenarios for the period 2000-2069. Second, a participatory multi-criteria technique, namely the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), was applied to rank potential adaptation measures based on agreed criteria. Results show that, in the middle-long run and under severe climate change, reduced water availability, lower crop yields and increased irrigation demands might lead to water shortages, crop failure, and up to ten percent of income losses to irrigators. AHP results show how private farming adaptation measures, including improving irrigation efficiency and adjusting crop varieties, are preferred to public adaptation measures, such as building new dams. The integrated quantitative and qualitative methodology used in this research can be considered a socially-based valuable tool to support adaptation decision-making.

Analyzing adaptation to climate change in the water and the agricultural sectors in the Spanish Guadiana basin.

1. Introduction: setting and problem definition 2. The Adaptation Pathway –2.1 Stage 1: appraising risks and opportunities •Step 1: Impact analysis •Step 2: Policy analysis •Step 3: Socio-institutional analysis –2.2 Stage 2: appraising and choosing adaptation opt ions •Step 4: identifying and prioritizing adaptation o ptions 3. Conclusions

Bile Acids Induce Glucagon-Like Peptide 2 Secretion with Limited Effects on Intestinal Adaptation in Early Weaned Pigs

Early weaning is a stressful event characterized by a transient period of intestinal atrophy that may be mediated by reduced secretion of glucagon-like peptide (GLP) 2. We tested whether enterally fed bile acids or plant sterols could increase nutrient-dependent GLP-2 secretion and improve intestinal adaptation in weanling pigs. During the first 6 d after weaning, piglets were intragastrically infused once daily with either deionized water -control-, chenodeoxycholic acid -CDC; 60mg/kg body weight-, or b-sitoesterol -BSE; 100 mg/kg body weight-. Infusing CDC increased plasma GLP-2 -P menor que 0.05- but did not affect plasma GLP-1 and feed intake. The intestinal expression of Glp2r -glucagon-like peptide 2 receptor-, Asbt -sodium-dependent bile acid transporter-, Fxr -farnesoid X receptor-, and Tgr5 -guanosine protein?coupled bile acid receptor- genes were not affected by CDC treatment. The intragastric administration of CDC did not alter the weight and length of the intestine, yet increased the activation of caspase-3 in ileal villi -P menor que 0.02- and the expression of Il6 -interleukin 6; P menor que 0.002- in the jejunum. In contrast, infusing BSE did not affect any of the variables that were measured. Our results show that the enteral administration of the bile acid CDC potentiates the nutrient-induced secretion of endogenous GLP-2 in early-weaned pigs. Bile acid?enhanced release of GLP-2, however, did not result in improved intestinal growth, morphology, or inflammation during the postweaning degenerative phase.

Exploring public support for climate change adaptation policies in the Mediterranean region: A case study in Southern Spain.

The understanding of public perception to climate change is an essential factor in the development of adaptation policies. In the Mediterranean, agriculture, as the largest consumer of freshwater, has the highest potential to suffer adverse impacts of climate change. Future water availability predictions, conflicting interests among stakeholders and an increasing social concern about the environment further aggravate the situation. Therefore studying public support for adaptation policies can play a key role in successfully adapting the sector. The study site, approximately 36,000 hectares of rice fields in Seville (Spain), exemplifies an area in the Mediterranean where water needs to be carefully re-allocated in view of the limitations anticipated by climate change scenarios; in particular where conflicts will arise between water for agriculture and water for ‘natural’ ecosystems. This paper proposes an ex-ante evaluation of the societal support for adaptation policies. A survey of 117 respondents was conducted and a Logit model utilized to analyze which predictors positively or negatively affect people's support for adaptation policies. Results suggest that the main barriers to support these policies were economic losses and low climate change concern whereas the primary motivation factor was environmental commitment. Additionally, the main socio-demographic determinants were gender, age, education and family structure. In order to improve societal support for climate change adaptation policies, implementing educational and awareness raising initiatives will be the main challenges for policy makers to overcome.

Looking beyond the average agricultural impacts in defining adaptation needs in Europe.

The effects of climate change on agriculture are often characterised by changes in the average productivity of crops; however, these indicators provide limited information regarding the risks associated with fluctuations in productivity resulting from future changes in climate variability that may also affect agriculture. In this context, this study evaluates the combined effects of the risks associated with anomalies reflected by changes in the mean crop yield and the variability of productivity in European agroclimatic regions under future climate change scenarios. The objective of this study is to evaluate adaptation needs and to identify regional effects that should be addressed with greater urgency in the light of the risks and opportunities that are identified. The results show differential effects on regional agriculture and highlight the importance of considering both regional average impacts and the variability in crop productivity in setting priorities for the adaptation and maintenance of rural incomes and agricultural insurance programmes

Bounded non-deterministic planning for multimedia adaptation

This paper proposes a novel combination of artificial intelligence planning and other techniques for improving decision-making in the context of multi-step multimedia content adaptation. In particular, it describes a method that allows decision-making (selecting the adaptation to perform) in situations where third-party pluggable multimedia conversion modules are involved and the multimedia adaptation planner does not know their exact adaptation capabilities. In this approach, the multimedia adaptation planner module is only responsible for a part of the required decisions; the pluggable modules make additional decisions based on different criteria. We demonstrate that partial decision-making is not only attainable, but also introduces advantages with respect to a system in which these conversion modules are not capable of providing additional decisions. This means that transferring decisions from the multi-step multimedia adaptation planner to the pluggable conversion modules increases the flexibility of the adaptation. Moreover, by allowing conversion modules to be only partially described, the range of problems that these modules can address increases, while significantly decreasing both the description length of the adaptation capabilities and the planning decision time. Finally, we specify the conditions under which knowing the partial adaptation capabilities of a set of conversion modules will be enough to compute a proper adaptation plan.

Accesibilidad y mejora de un sistema Web e implementación de RSS para avisos

El presente Trabajo de Fin de Grado se enmarca dentro del sistema web de la asignaturade Procesadores de Lenguajes perteneciente al departamento de Lenguajes y Sistemas Informáticos e Ingeniería de Software de la Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros Informáticos de la Universidad Politécnica de Madrid. Este Trabajo consta de varias líneas de desarrollo, que se engloban dentro de dicho marco y surgen de la necesidad de mejorar el sistema para hacer que éste sea accesible a todo tipo de usuarios, y a la vez se mantenga actualizado según las tecnologías más recientes. En primer lugar, el presente Trabajo se centra en estudiar la accesibilidad de la web de la asignatura de Procesadores de Lenguajes siguiendo las Pautas de Accesibilidad al Contenido en la Web (Web Content Accessibility Guidelines, WCAG) en su segunda versión (2.0). Para ello, se ha llevado a cabo un informe detallado que recoge los resultados de este estudio sobre los criterios de aceptación de las WCAG, y posteriormente se han implementado los cambios necesarios para solucionar los criterios erróneos detectados. De esta manera se puede asegurar que la web es accesible para personas con distintos tipos de discapacidad. Así mismo, y siguiendo el criterio de conseguir una web más accesible, se ha adaptado el sistema a tecnologías más recientes. En el momento de empezar el Trabajo, el sistema web contaba con una serie de páginas estáticas (XHTML 1.1 + CSS 2.1) y una serie de páginas dinámicas (XHTML 1.1 + CSS 2.1 + PHP + MySQL). Estas páginas han sido actualizadas a sus versiones más recientes (HTML 5 y CSS 3). La web cuenta también con un sistema de creación de grupos de prácticas que facilita su gestión tanto a profesores como a alumnos, además de facilitar el alta de los estudiantes de la asignatura. El sistema posee además un módulo de administración para que el personal docente pueda gestionarlo. Sobre este sistema web implantado en la actualidad, se ha realizado una batería de pruebas para garantizar su correcto funcionamiento, y se han corregido todos los errores detectados durante dicho proceso. Al mismo tiempo, se han implementado nuevas funcionalidades que han ido surgiendo desde la creación del sistema hasta el momento presente. Por último, se ha desarrollado un sistema de avisos RSS que permite a los alumnos de la asignatura permanecer al corriente de los avisos y noticias publicados en el tablón de anuncios de la web. Este sistema de avisos RSS servirá también para otros sitios web del Centro que utilicen el tablón de avisos multipropósito y podrá ser visualizado tanto en inglés como en español. ---ABSTRACT---The present final year project is set within the framework of the subject “Procesadores de Lenguajes”, that belongs to the “Computer Languages and Systems and Software Engineering” department of the Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros Informáticos of the Polytechnic University of Madrid. This study is divided in several angles of development that are included inside the abovementioned framework. They all emerge from the necessity of upgrading the system in order to make it accessible to everybody and the same time bringing it up to date to the latest technologies. First of all, it is focused on the study of the accessibility of the web site of the subject Procesadores de Lenguajes, following the second version of the Web Content Accessibility Guidelines (WCAG 2.0). In order to do this, an in-depth report containing the results of the study on the acceptance criteria of the WCAG has been developed. Right afterwards, necessary changes were implemented to correct the erroneous criteria detected. Similarly, and following the criteria of achieving a more accessible web site, the system has been adapted to updated technologies. At the start point, the web system consisted in a series of static pages (XHTML 1.1 + CSS 2.1) and a series of dynamic ones (XHTML 1.1 + CSS 2.1 + PHP + MySQL). These pages have been updated to their latest versions (HTML 5 and CSS 3). The web site has a system for the creation of working groups that makes their management easier, both for the teachers and for the students, as well as the registration process. The teaching staff can also manage the system through the administration module. Over the current web system, sets of several tests have taken place in order to guarantee its correct functioning and all the errors that appeared have been corrected. Likewise, new functionalities have been implemented, and those have been arising since the creation of the system till the present time. Finally, an RSS alert system has been developed, allowing students to keep updated on the news and alerts published in the website noticeboard. This RSS alert system will be shared with other websites of the School using the multipurpose noticeboard, and will be available both in Spanish and English.

Farmers behaviour on mitigation and adaptation to climate change: A case study in Kenya.

Farmers in Africa are facing climate change and challenging rural livelihoods while maintaining agricultural systems that are not resilient. By 2050 the mean estimates of production of key staple crops in Africa such as maize, sorghum, millet, groundnut, and cassava are expected to decrease by between 8 and 22 percent (Schlenker and Lobell 2010). In Kenya, although projections of rainfall do not show dramatic decreases, the distribution of impacts is clearly negative for most crops. As increases in temperature will lead to increases in evapotranspiration, a potential increase in rainfall in Kenya may not offset the expected increases in agricultural water needs (Herrero et al. 2010). In order to respond to these present and future challenges, potential mitigation and adaptation options have been developed. However, implementation is not evident. In addition to their benefits in either mitigating or reducing the vulnerability of climate change effects, many of these options do not have economic costs and even provide economic benefits (e.g. savings in the consumption of energy or natural resources). Nevertheless, it is demonstrated that even when there are no biophysical, technological or economic constraints and despite their potential benefits from either the economic or environmental climate change point of view, not all farmers are willing to adopt these measures. This reflects the key role that behavioural barriers can play in the uptake of mitigation and adaptation measures.

Drivers in adopting adaptation strategies to face increased water scarcity in agriculture. A case study in Doñana (Spain) and Makueni (Kenya)

La agricultura es uno de los sectores más afectados por el cambio climático. A pesar de haber demostrado a lo largo de la historia una gran capacidad para adaptarse a nuevas situaciones, hoy en día la agricultura se enfrenta a nuevos retos tales como satisfacer un elevado crecimiento en la demanda de alimentos, desarrollar una agricultura sostenible con el medio ambiente y reducir las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero. El potencial de adaptación debe ser definido en un contexto que incluya el comportamiento humano, ya que éste juega un papel decisivo en la implementación final de las medidas. Por este motivo, y para desarrollar correctamente políticas que busquen influir en el comportamiento de los agricultores para fomentar la adaptación a estas nuevas condiciones, es necesario entender previamente los procesos de toma de decisiones a nivel individual o de explotación, así como los efectos de los factores que determinan las barreras o motivaciones de la implementación de medidas. Esta Tesis doctoral trata de profundizar en el análisis de factores que influyen en la toma de decisiones de los agricultores para adoptar estrategias de adaptación al cambio climático. Este trabajo revisa la literatura actual y desarrolla un marco metodológico a nivel local y regional. Dos casos de estudio a nivel local (Doñana, España y Makueni, Kenia) han sido llevados a cabo con el fin de explorar el comportamiento de los agricultores hacia la adaptación. Estos casos de estudio representan regiones con notables diferencias en climatología, impactos del cambio climático, barreras para la adaptación y niveles de desarrollo e influencia de las instituciones públicas y privadas en la agricultura. Mientras el caso de estudio de Doñana representa un ejemplo de problemas asociados al uso y escasez del agua donde se espera que se agraven en el futuro, el caso de estudio de Makueni ejemplifica una zona fuertemente amenazada por las predicciones de cambio climático, donde adicionalmente la falta de infraestructura y la tecnología juegan un papel crucial para la implementación de la adaptación. El caso de estudio a nivel regional trata de generalizar en África el comportamiento de los agricultores sobre la implementación de medidas. El marco metodológico que se ha seguido en este trabajo abarca una amplia gama de enfoques y métodos para la recolección y análisis de datos. Los métodos utilizados para la toma de datos incluyen la implementación de encuestas, entrevistas, talleres con grupos de interés, grupos focales de discusión, revisión de estudios previos y bases de datos públicas. Los métodos analíticos incluyen métodos estadísticos, análisis multi‐criterio para la toma de decisiones, modelos de optimización de uso del suelo y un índice compuesto calculado a través de indicadores. Los métodos estadísticos se han utilizado con el fin de evaluar la influencia de los factores socio‐económicos y psicológicos sobre la adopción de medidas de adaptación. Dentro de estos métodos se incluyen regresiones logísticas, análisis de componentes principales y modelos de ecuaciones estructurales. Mientras que el análisis multi‐criterio se ha utilizado con el fin de evaluar las opciones de adaptación de acuerdo a las opiniones de las diferentes partes interesadas, el modelo de optimización ha tenido como fin analizar la combinación óptima de medidas de adaptación. El índice compuesto se ha utilizado para evaluar a nivel regional la implementación de medidas de adaptación en África. En general, los resultados del estudio ponen de relieve la gran importancia de considerar diferentes escalas espaciales a la hora de evaluar la implementación de medidas de adaptación al cambio climático. El comportamiento de los agricultores es diferente entre lugares considerados a una escala local relativamente pequeña, por lo que la generalización de los patrones del comportamiento a escalas regionales o globales resulta relativamente compleja. Los resultados obtenidos han permitido identificar factores determinantes tanto socioeconómicos como psicológicos y calcular su efecto sobre la adopción de medidas de adaptación. Además han proporcionado una mejor comprensión del distinto papel que desempeñan los cinco tipos de capital (natural, físico, financiero, social y humano) en la implementación de estrategias de adaptación. Con este trabajo se proporciona información de gran interés en los procesos de desarrollo de políticas destinadas a mejorar el apoyo de la sociedad a tomar medidas contra el cambio climático. Por último, en el análisis a nivel regional se desarrolla un índice compuesto que muestra la probabilidad de adoptar medidas de adaptación en las regiones de África y se analizan las causas que determinan dicha probabilidad de adopción de medidas. ABSTRACT Agriculture is and will continue to be one of the sectors most affected by climate change. Despite having demonstrated throughout history a great ability to adapt, agriculture today faces new challenges such as meeting growing food demands, developing sustainable agriculture and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Adaptation policies planned on global, regional or local scales are ultimately implemented in decision‐making processes at the farm or individual level so adaptation potentials have to be set within the context of individual behaviour and regional institutions. Policy instruments can play a formative role in the adoption of such policies by addressing incentives/disincentives that influence farmer’s behaviour. Hence understanding farm‐level decision‐making processes and the influence of determinants of adoption is crucial when designing policies aimed at fostering adoption. This thesis seeks to analyse the factors that influence decision‐making by farmers in relation to the uptake of adaptation options. This work reviews the current knowledge and develops a methodological framework at local and regional level. Whilst the case studies at the local level are conducted with the purpose of exploring farmer’s behaviour towards adaptation the case study at the regional level attempts to up‐scale and generalise theory on adoption of farmlevel adaptation options. The two case studies at the local level (Doñana, Spain and Makueni, Kenya) encompass areas with different; climates, impacts of climate change, adaptation constraints and limits, levels of development, institutional support for agriculture and influence from public and private institutions. Whilst the Doñana Case Study represents an area plagued with water‐usage issues, set to be aggravated further by climate change, Makueni Case study exemplifies an area decidedly threatened by climate change where a lack of infrastructure and technology plays a crucial role in the uptake of adaptation options. The proposed framework is based on a wide range of approaches for collecting and analysing data. The approaches used for data collection include the implementation of surveys, interviews, stakeholder workshops, focus group discussions, a review of previous case studies, and public databases. The analytical methods include statistical approaches, multi criteria analysis for decision‐making, land use optimisation models, and a composite index based on public databases. Statistical approaches are used to assess the influence of socio‐economic and psychological factors on the adoption or support for adaptation measures. The statistical approaches used are logistic regressions, principal component analysis and structural equation modelling. Whilst a multi criteria analysis approach is used to evaluate adaptation options according to the different perspectives of stakeholders, the optimisation model analyses the optimal combination of adaptation options. The composite index is developed to assess adoption of adaptation measures in Africa. Overall, the results of the study highlight the importance of considering various scales when assessing adoption of adaptation measures to climate change. As farmer’s behaviour varies at a local scale there is elevated complexity when generalising behavioural patterns for farmers at regional or global scales. The results identify and estimate the effect of most relevant socioeconomic and psychological factors that influence adoption of adaptation measures to climate change. They also provide a better understanding of the role of the five types of capital (natural, physical, financial, social, and human) on the uptake of farm‐level adaptation options. These assessments of determinants help to explain adoption of climate change measures and provide helpful information in order to design polices aimed at enhancing societal support for adaptation policies. Finally the analysis at the regional level develops a composite index which suggests the likelihood of the regions in Africa to adopt farm‐level adaptation measures and analyses the main causes of this likelihood of adoption.

A sharing-based approach to supporting adaptation in service compositions

Data-related properties of the activities involved in a service composition can be used to facilitate several design-time and run-time adaptation tasks, such as service evolution, distributed enactment, and instance-level adaptation. A number of these properties can be expressed using a notion of sharing. We present an approach for automated inference of data properties based on sharing analysis, which is able to handle service compositions with complex control structures, involving loops and sub-workflows. The properties inferred can include data dependencies, information content, domain-defined attributes, privacy or confidentiality levels, among others. The analysis produces characterizations of the data and the activities in the composition in terms of minimal and maximal sharing, which can then be used to verify compliance of potential adaptation actions, or as supporting information in their generation. This sharing analysis approach can be used both at design time and at run time. In the latter case, the results of analysis can be refined using the composition traces (execution logs) at the point of execution, in order to support run-time adaptation.

Automated end user-centred adaptation of web components through automated description logic-based reasoning

Context: This paper addresses one of the major end-user development (EUD) challenges, namely, how to pack today?s EUD support tools with composable elements. This would give end users better access to more components which they can use to build a solution tailored to their own needs. The success of later end-user software engineering (EUSE) activities largely depends on how many components each tool has and how adaptable components are to multiple problem domains. Objective: A system for automatically adapting heterogeneous components to a common development environment would offer a sizeable saving of time and resources within the EUD support tool construction process. This paper presents an automated adaptation system for transforming EUD components to a standard format. Method: This system is based on the use of description logic. Based on a generic UML2 data model, this description logic is able to check whether an end-user component can be transformed to this modeling language through subsumption or as an instance of the UML2 model. Besides it automatically finds a consistent, non-ambiguous and finite set of XSLT mappings to automatically prepare data in order to leverage the component as part of a tool that conforms to the target UML2 component model. Results: The proposed system has been successfully applied to components from four prominent EUD tools. These components were automatically converted to a standard format. In order to validate the proposed system, rich internet applications (RIA) used as an operational support system for operators at a large services company were developed using automatically adapted standard format components. These RIAs would be impossible to develop using each EUD tool separately. Conclusion: The positive results of applying our system for automatically adapting components from current tool catalogues are indicative of the system?s effectiveness. Use of this system could foster the growth of web EUD component catalogues, leveraging a vast ecosystem of user-centred SaaS to further current EUSE trends.

Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change for summer crops on Andalusia: evaluation for extreme maximum temperatures

Evaluate a set of agricultural adaptation strategies to cope with climate change impacts, with focus on the consequences of extreme events on the adaptations proposed in the semi-arid environment of Andalusia (Southern Spain).

Designing new cereal cultivars as an adaptation measure using crop model ensembles

To date, crop models have been little used for characterising the types of cultivars suited to a changed climate, though simulations of altered management (e.g. sowing) are often reported. However, in neither case are model uncertainties evaluated at the same time.

An Ant Colony System adaptation to deal with accessibility issues after a disaster

One of the main problems relief teams face after a natural or man-made disaster is how to plan rural road repair work tasks to take maximum advantage of the limited available financial and human resources. Previous research focused on speeding up repair work or on selecting the location of health centers to minimize transport times for injured citizens. In spite of the good results, this research does not take into account another key factor: survivor accessibility to resources. In this paper we account for the accessibility issue, that is, we maximize the number of survivors that reach the nearest regional center (cities where economic and social activity is concentrated) in a minimum time by planning which rural roads should be repaired given the available financial and human resources. This is a combinatorial problem since the number of connections between cities and regional centers grows exponentially with the problem size, and exact methods are no good for achieving an optimum solution. In order to solve the problem we propose using an Ant Colony System adaptation, which is based on ants? foraging behavior. Ants stochastically build minimal paths to regional centers and decide if damaged roads are repaired on the basis of pheromone levels, accessibility heuristic information and the available budget. The proposed algorithm is illustrated by means of an example regarding the 2010 Haiti earthquake, and its performance is compared with another metaheuristic, GRASP.

Exploring strategic farming choices to respond to mitigation and adaptation to climate change

Las alteraciones del sistema climático debido al aumento de concentraciones de gases de efecto invernadero (GEI) en la atmósfera, tendrán implicaciones importantes para la agricultura, el medio ambiente y la sociedad. La agricultura es una fuente importante de emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero (globalmente contribuye al 12% del total de GEI), y al mismo tiempo puede ser parte de la solución para mitigar las emisiones y adaptarse al cambio climático. Las acciones frente al desafío del cambio climático deben priorizar estrategias de adaptación y mitigación en la agricultura dentro de la agenda para el desarrollo de políticas. La agricultura es por tanto crucial para la conservación y el uso sostenible de los recursos naturales, que ya están sometidos a impactos del cambio climático, al mismo tiempo que debe suministrar alimentos para una población creciente. Por tanto, es necesaria una coordinación entre las actuales estrategias de política climática y agrícola. El concepto de agricultura climáticamente inteligente ha surgido para integrar todos estos servicios de la producción agraria. Al evaluar opciones para reducir las amenazas del cambio climático para la agricultura y el medio ambiente, surgen dos preguntas de investigación: • ¿Qué información es necesaria para definir prácticas agrarias inteligentes? • ¿Qué factores influyen en la implementación de las prácticas agrarias inteligentes? Esta Tesis trata de proporcionar información relevante sobre estas cuestiones generales con el fin de apoyar el desarrollo de la política climática. Se centra en sistemas agrícolas Mediterráneos. Esta Tesis integra diferentes métodos y herramientas para evaluar las alternativas de gestión agrícola y políticas con potencial para responder a las necesidades de mitigación y adaptación al cambio climático. La investigación incluye enfoques cuantitativos y cualitativos e integra variables agronómicas, de clima y socioeconómicas a escala local y regional. La investigación aporta una recopilación de datos sobre evidencia experimental existente, y un estudio integrado sobre el comportamiento de los agricultores y las posibles alternativas de cambio (por ejemplo, la tecnología, la gestión agrícola y la política climática). Los casos de estudio de esta Tesis - el humedal de Doñana (S España) y la región de Aragón (NE España) - permiten ilustrar dos sistemas Mediterráneos representativos, donde el uso intensivo de la agricultura y las condiciones semiáridas son ya una preocupación. Por este motivo, la adopción de estrategias de mitigación y adaptación puede desempeñar un papel muy importante a la hora de encontrar un equilibrio entre la equidad, la seguridad económica y el medio ambiente en los escenarios de cambio climático. La metodología multidisciplinar de esta tesis incluye una amplia gama de enfoques y métodos para la recopilación y el análisis de datos. La toma de datos se apoya en la revisión bibliográfica de evidencia experimental, bases de datos públicas nacionales e internacionales y datos primarios recopilados mediante entrevistas semi-estructuradas con los grupos de interés (administraciones públicas, responsables políticos, asesores agrícolas, científicos y agricultores) y encuestas con agricultores. Los métodos de análisis incluyen: meta-análisis, modelos de gestión de recursos hídricos (modelo WAAPA), análisis multicriterio para la toma de decisiones, métodos estadísticos (modelos de regresión logística y de Poisson) y herramientas para el desarrollo de políticas basadas en la ciencia. El meta-análisis identifica los umbrales críticos de temperatura que repercuten en el crecimiento y el desarrollo de los tres cultivos principales para la seguridad alimentaria (arroz, maíz y trigo). El modelo WAAPA evalúa el efecto del cambio climático en la gestión del agua para la agricultura de acuerdo a diferentes alternativas políticas y escenarios climáticos. El análisis multicriterio evalúa la viabilidad de las prácticas agrícolas de mitigación en dos escenarios climáticos de acuerdo a la percepción de diferentes expertos. Los métodos estadísticos analizan los determinantes y las barreras para la adopción de prácticas agrícolas de mitigación. Las herramientas para el desarrollo de políticas basadas en la ciencia muestran el potencial y el coste para reducir GEI mediante las prácticas agrícolas. En general, los resultados de esta Tesis proporcionan información sobre la adaptación y la mitigación del cambio climático a nivel de explotación para desarrollar una política climática más integrada y ayudar a los agricultores en la toma de decisiones. Los resultados muestran las temperaturas umbral y la respuesta del arroz, el maíz y el trigo a temperaturas extremas, siendo estos valores de gran utilidad para futuros estudios de impacto y adaptación. Los resultados obtenidos también aportan una serie de estrategias flexibles para la adaptación y la mitigación a escala local, proporcionando a su vez una mejor comprensión sobre las barreras y los incentivos para su adopción. La capacidad de mejorar la disponibilidad de agua y el potencial y el coste de reducción de GEI se han estimado para estas estrategias en los casos de estudio. Estos resultados podrían ayudar en el desarrollo de planes locales de adaptación y políticas regionales de mitigación, especialmente en las regiones Mediterráneas. ABSTRACT Alterations in the climatic system due to increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) are expected to have important implications for agriculture, the environment and society. Agriculture is an important source of GHG emissions (12 % of global anthropogenic GHG), but it is also part of the solution to mitigate emissions and to adapt to climate change. Responses to face the challenge of climate change should place agricultural adaptation and mitigation strategies at the heart of the climate change agenda. Agriculture is crucial for the conservation and sustainable use of natural resources, which already stand under pressure due to climate change impacts, increased population, pollution and fragmented and uncoordinated climate policy strategies. The concept of climate smart agriculture has emerged to encompass all these issues as a whole. When assessing choices aimed at reducing threats to agriculture and the environment under climate change, two research questions arise: • What information defines smart farming choices? • What drives the implementation of smart farming choices? This Thesis aims to provide information on these broad questions in order to support climate policy development focusing in some Mediterranean agricultural systems. This Thesis integrates methods and tools to evaluate potential farming and policy choices to respond to mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The assessment involves both quantitative and qualitative approaches and integrates agronomic, climate and socioeconomic variables at local and regional scale. The assessment includes the collection of data on previous experimental evidence, and the integration of farmer behaviour and policy choices (e.g., technology, agricultural management and climate policy). The case study areas -- the Doñana coastal wetland (S Spain) and the Aragón region (NE Spain) – illustrate two representative Mediterranean regions where the intensive use of agriculture and the semi-arid conditions are already a concern. Thus the adoption of mitigation and adaptation measures can play a significant role for reaching a balance among equity, economic security and the environment under climate change scenarios. The multidisciplinary methodology of this Thesis includes a wide range of approaches for collecting and analysing data. The data collection process include revision of existing experimental evidence, public databases and the contribution of primary data gathering by semi-structured interviews with relevant stakeholders (i.e., public administrations, policy makers, agricultural advisors, scientist and farmers among others) and surveys given to farmers. The analytical methods include meta-analysis, water availability models (WAAPA model), decision making analysis (MCA, multi-criteria analysis), statistical approaches (Logistic and Poisson regression models) and science-base policy tools (MACC, marginal abatement cost curves and SOC abatement wedges). The meta-analysis identifies the critical temperature thresholds which impact on the growth and development of three major crops (i.e., rice, maize and wheat). The WAAPA model assesses the effect of climate change for agricultural water management under different policy choices and climate scenarios. The multi-criteria analysis evaluates the feasibility of mitigation farming practices under two climate scenarios according to the expert views. The statistical approaches analyses the drivers and the barriers for the adoption of mitigation farming practices. The science-base policy tools illustrate the mitigation potential and cost effectiveness of the farming practices. Overall, the results of this Thesis provide information to adapt to, and mitigate of, climate change at farm level to support the development of a comprehensive climate policy and to assist farmers. The findings show the key temperature thresholds and response to extreme temperature effects for rice, maize and wheat, so such responses can be included into crop impact and adaptation models. A portfolio of flexible adaptation and mitigation choices at local scale are identified. The results also provide a better understanding of the stakeholders oppose or support to adopt the choices which could be used to incorporate in local adaptation plans and mitigation regional policy. The findings include estimations for the farming and policy choices on the capacity to improve water supply reliability, abatement potential and cost-effective in Mediterranean regions.