The Optimal combination: Grammatical Swarm, Particle Swarm Optimization and Neural Networks.

Social behaviour is mainly based on swarm colonies, in which each individual shares its knowledge about the environment with other individuals to get optimal solutions. Such co-operative model differs from competitive models in the way that individuals die and are born by combining information of alive ones. This paper presents the particle swarm optimization with differential evolution algorithm in order to train a neural network instead the classic back propagation algorithm. The performance of a neural network for particular problems is critically dependant on the choice of the processing elements, the net architecture and the learning algorithm. This work is focused in the development of methods for the evolutionary design of artificial neural networks. This paper focuses in optimizing the topology and structure of connectivity for these networks.

Analysis of the geometric altimetry to support aircraft optimal profiles within future 4D trajectory management

The use of barometric altimetry is to some extent a limiting factor on safety, predictability and efficiency of aircraft operations, and reduces the potential of the trajectory based operations capabilities. However, geometric altimetry could be used to improve all of these aspects. Nowadays aircraft altitude is estimated by applying the International Standard Atmosphere which differs from real altitude. At different temperatures for an assigned barometric altitude, aerodynamic forces are different and this has a direct relationship with time, fuel consumption and range of the flight. The study explores the feasibility of using sensors providing geometric reference altitude, in particular, to supply capabilities for the optimization of vertical profiles and also, their impact on the vertical Air Traffic Management separation assurance processes. One of the aims of the thesis is to assess if geometric altitude fulfils the aeronautical requirements through existing sensors. Also the thesis will elaborate on the advantages of geometric altitude over the barometric altitude in terms of efficiency for vertical navigation. The evidence that geometric altitude is the best choice to improve the efficiency in vertical profile and aircraft capacity by reducing vertical uncertainties will also be shown. In this paper, an atmospheric study is presented, as well as the impact of temperature deviation from International Standard Atmosphere model is analyzed in order to obtain relationship between geometric and barometric altitude. Furthermore, an aircraft model to study aircraft vertical profile is provided to analyse trajectories based on geometric altitudes.

Goal-oriented self-adaptive hp-strategies for finite element analysis of electromagnetic scattering and radiation problems

In this paper, a fully automatic goal-oriented hp-adaptive finite element strategy for open region electromagnetic problems (radiation and scattering) is presented. The methodology leads to exponential rates of convergence in terms of an upper bound of an user-prescribed quantity of interest. Thus, the adaptivity may be guided to provide an optimal error, not globally for the field in the whole finite element domain, but for specific parameters of engineering interest. For instance, the error on the numerical computation of the S-parameters of an antenna array, the field radiated by an antenna, or the Radar Cross Section on given directions, can be minimized. The efficiency of the approach is illustrated with several numerical simulations with two dimensional problem domains. Results include the comparison with the previously developed energy-norm based hp-adaptivity.

Control de vibraciones en pasarelas peatonales

En los últimos años se ha construido un gran número de pasarelas peatonales como respuesta a la demanda de nuevas vías de paso en las ciudades. Estas estructuras tienen requisitos constructivos menos exigentes en comparación con otros tipos de puentes, lo cual ha facilitado el desarrollo de diseños con nuevos esquemas resistentes, complicadas geometrías y el empleo de nuevos materiales. En general estas estructuras son esbeltas, ligeras y poco amortiguadas, lo que en ocasiones ha generado problemas de vi-braciones al paso de peatones una vez puestas en servicio. Las normativas actuales son cada vez más sensibles a esta problemática, recomendando diseños cuyas frecuencias naturales deben estar alejadas de los rangos de frecuencia de paso típicos de los peatones y fijando límites de confort en forma de valores máximos de aceleración permitidos, asegurándose así un correcto comportamiento de la estructura. En el presente artículo se analiza esta problemática desde un punto de vista práctico. Para ello se muestran los puntos clave de las normativas y guías de diseño de pasarelas que se pueden encontrar actualmente en la bibliografía, se presentan las técnicas que habitualmente se emplean en el análisis dinámico experimental de estas estructuras, y se comentan las soluciones a las que generalmente se recurre para mejorar su comportamiento dinámico. Por último, se muestran los trabajos llevados a cabo por el Centro Tecnológico CARTIF en colaboración con las Universidades de Valladolid y Castilla-La Mancha en la pasarela peatonal del Museo de la Ciencia de Valladolid. Estos trabajos incluyen: (1) el estudio dinámico de los tres vanos metálicos de dicha pasarela, (2) el diseño e implementación de un amortiguador de masa sintonizado en el vano más sensible a las vibraciones, (3) la implementación de un amortiguador de masa activo utilizando un excitador electrodinámico, y (4) el desarrollo de pruebas para la verificación del estado de servicio de la pasarela. In the last years, a wide number of footbridges have been built as demand response of more direct pathways in cities. These structures have lower building requirements as compared with standard bridges. This circumstance has facilitated the development of new structural design with complex geometries and innovative materials. As a result, these structures may be slender, light and low damped, leading to vibration problems once in service. The current codes take into account this problem, and recommend designs with natural frequencies away from the typical pedestrian pacing rates and fix comfort limits to guarantee the serviceability of the structure.This paper studies this problem from a practical point of view. Thus, the key points of codes and footbridges guidelines are showed, the typical experimental dynamic analysis techniques are presented, and the usual solutions adopted to improve the dynamic performance of these structures are discussed. Finally, the works carried out on the Valladolid Science Museum Footbridge by Centro Tecnológico CARTIF in collaboration with the Universities of Valladolid and Castilla-La Mancha are showed. These works include: (1) the dynamic study of the three steel spans of the footbridge, (2) the design and implementation of a tuned mass damper in the liveliest span, (3) the implementation of an active mass damper using an electrodynamic shaker, and (4) the development of field tests to assess the serviceability of such span.

See-and-avoid quadcopter using fuzzy control optimized by cross-entropy

In this work we present an optimized fuzzy visual servoing system for obstacle avoidance using an unmanned aerial vehicle. The cross-entropy theory is used to optimise the gains of our controllers. The optimization process was made using the ROS-Gazebo 3D simulation with purposeful extensions developed for our experiments. Visual servoing is achieved through an image processing front-end that uses the Camshift algorithm to detect and track objects in the scene. Experimental flight trials using a small quadrotor were performed to validate the parameters estimated from simulation. The integration of crossentropy methods is a straightforward way to estimate optimal gains achieving excellent results when tested in real flights.

Visual Tracking, Pose Estimation, and Control for Aerial Vehicles

El principal objetivo de esta tesis es dotar a los vehículos aéreos no tripulados (UAVs, por sus siglas en inglés) de una fuente de información adicional basada en visión. Esta fuente de información proviene de cámaras ubicadas a bordo de los vehículos o en el suelo. Con ella se busca que los UAVs realicen tareas de aterrizaje o inspección guiados por visión, especialmente en aquellas situaciones en las que no haya disponibilidad de estimar la posición del vehículo con base en GPS, cuando las estimaciones de GPS no tengan la suficiente precisión requerida por las tareas a realizar, o cuando restricciones de carga de pago impidan añadir sensores a bordo de los vehículos. Esta tesis trata con tres de las principales áreas de la visión por computador: seguimiento visual y estimación visual de la pose (posición y orientación), que a su vez constituyen la base de la tercera, denominada control servo visual, que en nuestra aplicación se enfoca en el empleo de información visual para controlar los UAVs. Al respecto, esta tesis se ocupa de presentar propuestas novedosas que permitan solucionar problemas relativos al seguimiento de objetos mediante cámaras ubicadas a bordo de los UAVs, se ocupa de la estimación de la pose de los UAVs basada en información visual obtenida por cámaras ubicadas en el suelo o a bordo, y también se ocupa de la aplicación de las técnicas propuestas para solucionar diferentes problemas, como aquellos concernientes al seguimiento visual para tareas de reabastecimiento autónomo en vuelo o al aterrizaje basado en visión, entre otros. Las diversas técnicas de visión por computador presentadas en esta tesis se proponen con el fin de solucionar dificultades que suelen presentarse cuando se realizan tareas basadas en visión con UAVs, como las relativas a la obtención, en tiempo real, de estimaciones robustas, o como problemas generados por vibraciones. Los algoritmos propuestos en esta tesis han sido probados con información de imágenes reales obtenidas realizando pruebas on-line y off-line. Diversos mecanismos de evaluación han sido empleados con el propósito de analizar el desempeño de los algoritmos propuestos, entre los que se incluyen datos simulados, imágenes de vuelos reales, estimaciones precisas de posición empleando el sistema VICON y comparaciones con algoritmos del estado del arte. Los resultados obtenidos indican que los algoritmos de visión por computador propuestos tienen un desempeño que es comparable e incluso mejor al de algoritmos que se encuentran en el estado del arte. Los algoritmos propuestos permiten la obtención de estimaciones robustas en tiempo real, lo cual permite su uso en tareas de control visual. El desempeño de estos algoritmos es apropiado para las exigencias de las distintas aplicaciones examinadas: reabastecimiento autónomo en vuelo, aterrizaje y estimación del estado del UAV. Abstract The main objective of this thesis is to provide Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) with an additional vision-based source of information extracted by cameras located either on-board or on the ground, in order to allow UAVs to develop visually guided tasks, such as landing or inspection, especially in situations where GPS information is not available, where GPS-based position estimation is not accurate enough for the task to develop, or where payload restrictions do not allow the incorporation of additional sensors on-board. This thesis covers three of the main computer vision areas: visual tracking and visual pose estimation, which are the bases the third one called visual servoing, which, in this work, focuses on using visual information to control UAVs. In this sense, the thesis focuses on presenting novel solutions for solving the tracking problem of objects when using cameras on-board UAVs, on estimating the pose of the UAVs based on the visual information collected by cameras located either on the ground or on-board, and also focuses on applying these proposed techniques for solving different problems, such as visual tracking for aerial refuelling or vision-based landing, among others. The different computer vision techniques presented in this thesis are proposed to solve some of the frequently problems found when addressing vision-based tasks in UAVs, such as obtaining robust vision-based estimations at real-time frame rates, and problems caused by vibrations, or 3D motion. All the proposed algorithms have been tested with real-image data in on-line and off-line tests. Different evaluation mechanisms have been used to analyze the performance of the proposed algorithms, such as simulated data, images from real-flight tests, publicly available datasets, manually generated ground truth data, accurate position estimations using a VICON system and a robotic cell, and comparison with state of the art algorithms. Results show that the proposed computer vision algorithms obtain performances that are comparable to, or even better than, state of the art algorithms, obtaining robust estimations at real-time frame rates. This proves that the proposed techniques are fast enough for vision-based control tasks. Therefore, the performance of the proposed vision algorithms has shown to be of a standard appropriate to the different explored applications: aerial refuelling and landing, and state estimation. It is noteworthy that they have low computational overheads for vision systems.

Matrix-free time-stepping methods for the solution of TriGlobal instability problems

La inmensa mayoría de los flujos de relevancia ingenieril permanecen sin estudiar en el marco de la teoría de estabilidad global. Esto es debido a dos razones fundamentalmente, las dificultades asociadas con el análisis de los flujos turbulentos y los inmensos recursos computacionales requeridos para obtener la solución del problema de autovalores asociado al análisis de inestabilidad de flujos tridimensionales, también conocido como problema TriGlobal. En esta tesis se aborda el problema asociado con la tridimensionalidad. Se ha desarrollado una metodología general para obtener soluciones de problemas de análisis modal de las inestabilidades lineales globales mediante el acoplamiento de métodos de evolución temporal, desarrollados en este trabajo, con códigos de mecánica de fluidos computacional de segundo orden, utilizados de forma general en la industria. Esta metodología consiste en la resolución del problema de autovalores asociado al análisis de inestabilidad mediante métodos de proyección en subespacios de Krylov, con la particularidad de que dichos subespacios son generados por medio de la integración temporal de un vector inicial usando cualquier código de mecánica de fluidos computacional. Se han elegido tres problemas desafiantes en función de la exigencia de recursos computacionales necesarios y de la complejidad física para la demostración de la presente metodología: (i) el flujo en el interior de una cavidad tridimensional impulsada por una de sus tapas, (ii) el flujo alrededor de un cilindro equipado con aletas helicoidales a lo largo su envergadura y (iii) el flujo a través de una cavidad abierta tridimensinal en ausencia de homogeneidades espaciales. Para la validación de la tecnología se ha obtenido la solución del problema TriGlobal asociado al flujo en la cavidad tridimensional, utilizando el método de evolución temporal desarrollado acoplado con los operadores numéricos de flujo incompresible del código CFD OpenFOAM (código libre). Los resultados obtenidos coinciden plentamente con la literatura. La aplicación de esta metodología al estudio de inestabilidades globales de flujos abiertos tridimensionales ha proporcionado por primera vez, información sobre la transición tridimensional de estos flujos. Además, la metodología ha sido adaptada para resolver problemas adjuntos TriGlobales, permitiendo el control de flujo basado en modificaciones de las inestabilidades globales. Finalmente, se ha demostrado que la cantidad moderada de los recursos computacionales requeridos para la solución del problema de valor propio TriGlobal usando este método numérico, junto a su versatilidad al poder acoplarse a cualquier código aerodinámico, permite la realización de análisis de inestabilidad global y control de flujos complejos de relevancia industrial. Abstract Most flows of engineering relevance still remain unexplored in a global instability theory context for two reasons. First, because of the difficulties associated with the analysis of turbulent flows and, second, for the formidable computational resources required for the solution of the eigenvalue problem associated with the instability analysis of three-dimensional base flows, also known as TriGlobal problem. In this thesis, the problem associated with the three-dimensionality is addressed by means of the development of a general approach to the solution of large-scale global linear instability analysis by coupling a time-stepping approach with second order aerodynamic codes employed in industry. Three challenging flows in the terms of required computational resources and physical complexity have been chosen for demonstration of the present methodology; (i) the flow inside a wall-bounded three-dimensional lid-driven cavity, (ii) the flow past a cylinder fitted with helical strakes and (iii) the flow over a inhomogeneous three-dimensional open cavity. Results in excellent agreement with the literature have been obtained for the three-dimensional lid-driven cavity by using this methodology coupled with the incompressible solver of the open-source toolbox OpenFOAM®, which has served as validation. Moreover, significant physical insight of the instability of three-dimensional open flows has been gained through the application of the present time-stepping methodology to the other two cases. In addition, modifications to the present approach have been proposed in order to perform adjoint instability analysis of three-dimensional base flows and flow control; validation and TriGlobal examples are presented. Finally, it has been demonstrated that the moderate amount of computational resources required for the solution of the TriGlobal eigenvalue problem using this method enables the performance of instability analysis and control of flows of industrial relevance.

Análisis de la viabilidad técnica de las aerobombas para el riego localizado

Actualmente la agricultura cubana, por ser un sector estratégico en la economía del país, incorpora en su desarrollo y gestión las energías renovables como criterio básico para su viabilidad futura. Sin embargo existen un número de problemas que limitan el desarrollo de estas fuentes energéticas en Cuba, entre los que se encuentran el conocimiento incompleto de su potencial de utilización. Por esta razón, la presente investigación tiene como objetivo la maximización de la superficie regada de un cultivo dado y la determinación del volumen de regulación mínimo, usando una aerobomba tipo, en condiciones ambientales dadas. Se desarrolla una metodología para predecir la máxima potencialidad de las aerobombas para un sistema de riego localizado, basada en el cálculo del balance diario entre las necesidades de agua del cultivo y la disponibilidad de agua. Mediante un ejemplo que ilustra el uso de esta metodología en el cultivo de tomate (Solanum lycopersicum L. var. FL - 5) bajo invernadero en Ciego de Ávila, Cuba, se hace una descripción de los elementos de la instalación propuesta para el suministro de agua por parte de la aerobomba. Se estudiaron varios factores, tales como la serie de velocidad del viento trihoraria ( h V3 , m s-1) para un año medio de viento y para un año medio de poco viento; el caudal suministrado por la aerobomba en función de la altura de elevación ( H , m); y la evapotranspiración diaria del cultivo en invernadero en función de la fecha de siembra. A partir de los factores mencionados se determinaron los volúmenes de agua mensuales necesarios para el riego ( r D , m3 ha-1), la capacidad del depósito de almacenamiento ( dep. V , m3), así como las áreas máximas regables ( r A , ha) para cada variante. Los resultados muestran que el período óptimo de bombeo eólico para el riego del cultivo de tomate en invernadero bajo las condiciones ambientales estudiadas es de noviembre a febrero, y que los factores que más influyen en la superficie que se puede regar con el bombeo eólico son la fecha de plantación y el volumen de depósito. Abstract Currently Cuban agriculture, as a strategic sector in the economy of the country, incorporates in its development and renewable energy management as a basic criterion for its future viability. However, there are a number of problems that limit the development of these energy sources in Cuba, among which are the incomplete knowledge of their potential use. For this reason, this research aims at maximizing the irrigated area of a given culture and determination of minimum control volume, using a type Windpump in given environmental conditions. We develop a methodology to predict the maximum potential of windmills for irrigation system, based on the daily balance calculation between the crop water needs and water availability. Through an example that illustrates the use of this methodology in the cultivation of tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L. var. FL - 5) under greenhouse in Ciego de Avila, Cuba, is a description of the elements of the proposed facility to supply water from the windmill. We studied several factors such as the number of trihoraria wind speed ( h V3 , m s- 1) for an average wind year and an average year with little wind, the flow supplied by the windmill depending on the lift height ( H , m) and daily crop evapotranspiration in greenhouse based on planting date. From the above factors were determined monthly water volumes needed for irrigation ( r D , m3 ha-1), the storage tank capacity ( dep. V , m3) and peak areas irrigated ( r A , ha) for each variant. The results show that the optimal period wind pumping for irrigation of greenhouse tomato crop under the environmental conditions studied is from November to February, and that the factors that influence the surface that can be irrigated with wind pumping are planting date and amount of deposit.

A unified framework for linear function approximation of value functions in stochastic control

This paper contributes with a unified formulation that merges previ- ous analysis on the prediction of the performance ( value function ) of certain sequence of actions ( policy ) when an agent operates a Markov decision process with large state-space. When the states are represented by features and the value function is linearly approxi- mated, our analysis reveals a new relationship between two common cost functions used to obtain the optimal approximation. In addition, this analysis allows us to propose an efficient adaptive algorithm that provides an unbiased linear estimate. The performance of the pro- posed algorithm is illustrated by simulation, showing competitive results when compared with the state-of-the-art solutions.

Membrane Systems Working with the PFactor: Best Strategy to Solve Complex Problems.

A membrane system is a massive parallel system, which is inspired by the living cells when processing information. As a part of unconventional computing, membrane systems are proven to be effective in solving complex problems. A new factor is introduced. This factor can decide whether a technique is worthwhile being used or not. The use of this factor provides the best chances for selecting the strategy for the rules application phase. Referring to the “best” is in reference to the one that reduces execution time within the membrane system. A pre-analysis of the membrane system determines the P-factor, which in return advises the optimal strategy to use. In particular, this paper compares the use of two strategies based on the P-factor and provides results upon the application of them. The paper concludes that the P-factor is an effective indicator for choosing the right strategy to implement the rules application phase in membrane systems.

Risk-based methodology for parameter calibration of a reservoir flood control model

Flash floods are of major relevance in natural disaster management in the Mediterranean region. In many cases, the damaging effects of flash floods can be mitigated by adequate management of flood control reservoirs. This requires the development of suitable models for optimal operation of reservoirs. A probabilistic methodology for calibrating the parameters of a reservoir flood control model (RFCM) that takes into account the stochastic variability of flood events is presented. This study addresses the crucial problem of operating reservoirs during flood events, considering downstream river damages and dam failure risk as conflicting operation criteria. These two criteria are aggregated into a single objective of total expected damages from both the maximum released flows and stored volumes (overall risk index). For each selected parameter set the RFCM is run under a wide range of hydrologic loads (determined through Monte Carlo simulation). The optimal parameter set is obtained through the overall risk index (balanced solution) and then compared with other solutions of the Pareto front. The proposed methodology is implemented at three different reservoirs in the southeast of Spain. The results obtained show that the balanced solution offers a good compromise between the two main objectives of reservoir flood control management

Leakage and temperature aware server control for improving energy efficiency in data centers

Reducing the energy consumption for computation and cooling in servers is a major challenge considering the data center energy costs today. To ensure energy-efficient operation of servers in data centers, the relationship among computa- tional power, temperature, leakage, and cooling power needs to be analyzed. By means of an innovative setup that enables monitoring and controlling the computing and cooling power consumption separately on a commercial enterprise server, this paper studies temperature-leakage-energy tradeoffs, obtaining an empirical model for the leakage component. Using this model, we design a controller that continuously seeks and settles at the optimal fan speed to minimize the energy consumption for a given workload. We run a customized dynamic load-synthesis tool to stress the system. Our proposed cooling controller achieves up to 9% energy savings and 30W reduction in peak power in comparison to the default cooling control scheme.

Climatic factors control rodent seed predation in Pinus pinea L. stands in Central Spain

- Context: Pinus pinea L. presents serious problems of natural regeneration in managed forest of Central Spain. The species exhibits specific traits linked to frugivore activity. Therefore, information on plant–animal interactions may be crucial to understand regeneration failure. - Aims: Determining the spatio-temporal pattern of P. pinea seed predation by Apodemus sylvaticus L. and the factors involved. Exploring the importance of A. sylvaticus L. as a disperser of P. pinea. Identifying other frugivores and their seasonal patterns. - Methods: An intensive 24-month seed predation trial was carried out. The probability of seeds escaping predation was modelled through a zero-inflated binomial mixed model. Experiments on seed dispersal by A. sylvaticus were conducted. Cameras were set up to identify other potential frugivores. - Results: Decreasing rodent population in summer and masting enhances seed survival. Seeds were exploited more rapidly nearby parent trees and shelters. A. sylvaticus dispersal activity was found to be scarce. Corvids marginally preyed upon P. pinea seeds. - Conclusions: Survival of P. pinea seeds is climate-controlled through the timing of the dry period together with masting occurrence. Should germination not take place during the survival period, establishment may be limited. A. sylvaticus mediated dispersal does not modify the seed shadow. Seasonality of corvid activity points to a role of corvids in dispersal.

Electricity price forecasting accounting for renewable energies: optimal combined forecasts

Electricity price forecasting is an interesting problem for all the agents involved in electricity market operation. For instance, every profit maximisation strategy is based on the computation of accurate one-day-ahead forecasts, which is why electricity price forecasting has been a growing field of research in recent years. In addition, the increasing concern about environmental issues has led to a high penetration of renewable energies, particularly wind. In some European countries such as Spain, Germany and Denmark, renewable energy is having a deep impact on the local power markets. In this paper, we propose an optimal model from the perspective of forecasting accuracy, and it consists of a combination of several univariate and multivariate time series methods that account for the amount of energy produced with clean energies, particularly wind and hydro, which are the most relevant renewable energy sources in the Iberian Market. This market is used to illustrate the proposed methodology, as it is one of those markets in which wind power production is more relevant in terms of its percentage of the total demand, but of course our method can be applied to any other liberalised power market. As far as our contribution is concerned, first, the methodology proposed by García-Martos et al(2007 and 2012) is generalised twofold: we allow the incorporation of wind power production and hydro reservoirs, and we do not impose the restriction of using the same model for 24h. A computational experiment and a Design of Experiments (DOE) are performed for this purpose. Then, for those hours in which there are two or more models without statistically significant differences in terms of their forecasting accuracy, a combination of forecasts is proposed by weighting the best models(according to the DOE) and minimising the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The MAPE is the most popular accuracy metric for comparing electricity price forecasting models. We construct the combi nation of forecasts by solving several nonlinear optimisation problems that allow computation of the optimal weights for building the combination of forecasts. The results are obtained by a large computational experiment that entails calculating out-of-sample forecasts for every hour in every day in the period from January 2007 to Decem ber 2009. In addition, to reinforce the value of our methodology, we compare our results with those that appear in recent published works in the field. This comparison shows the superiority of our methodology in terms of forecasting accuracy.

Contributions to trajectory prediction theory and its application to arrival management for air traffic control

La gestión del tráfico aéreo (Air Traffic Management, ATM) está experimentando un cambio de paradigma hacia las denominadas operaciones basadas trayectoria. Bajo dicho paradigma se modifica el papel de los controladores de tráfico aéreo desde una operativa basada su intervención táctica continuada hacia una labor de supervisión a más largo plazo. Esto se apoya en la creciente confianza en las soluciones aportadas por las herramientas automatizadas de soporte a la decisión más modernas. Para dar soporte a este concepto, se precisa una importante inversión para el desarrollo, junto con la adquisición de nuevos equipos en tierra y embarcados, que permitan la sincronización precisa de la visión de la trayectoria, basada en el intercambio de información entre ambos actores. Durante los últimos 30 a 40 años las aerolíneas han generado uno de los menores retornos de la inversión de entre todas las industrias. Sin beneficios tangibles, la industria aérea tiene dificultades para atraer el capital requerido para su modernización, lo que retrasa la implantación de dichas mejoras. Esta tesis tiene como objetivo responder a la pregunta de si las capacidades actualmente instaladas en las aeronaves comerciales se pueden aplicar para lograr la sincronización de la trayectoria con el nivel de calidad requerido. Además, se analiza en ella si, conjuntamente con mejoras en las herramientas de predicción trayectorias instaladas en tierra en para facilitar la gestión de las arribadas, dichas capacidades permiten obtener los beneficios esperados en el marco de las operaciones basadas en trayectoria. Esto podría proporcionar un incentivo para futuras actualizaciones de la aviónica que podrían llevar a mejoras adicionales. El concepto operacional propuesto en esta tesis tiene como objetivo permitir que los aviones sean pilotados de una manera consistente con las técnicas actuales de vuelo optimizado. Se permite a las aeronaves que desciendan en el denominado “modo de ángulo de descenso gestionado” (path-managed mode), que es el preferido por la mayoría de las compañías aéreas, debido a que conlleva un reducido consumo de combustible. El problema de este modo es que en él no se controla de forma activa el tiempo de llegada al punto de interés. En nuestro concepto operacional, la incertidumbre temporal se gestiona en mediante de la medición del tiempo en puntos estratégicamente escogidos a lo largo de la trayectoria de la aeronave, y permitiendo la modificación por el control de tierra de la velocidad de la aeronave. Aunque la base del concepto es la gestión de las ordenes de velocidad que se proporcionan al piloto, para ser capaces de operar con los niveles de equipamiento típicos actualmente, dicho concepto también constituye un marco en el que la aviónica más avanzada (por ejemplo, que permita el control por el FMS del tiempo de llegada) puede integrarse de forma natural, una vez que esta tecnología este instalada. Además de gestionar la incertidumbre temporal a través de la medición en múltiples puntos, se intenta reducir dicha incertidumbre al mínimo mediante la mejora de las herramienta de predicción de la trayectoria en tierra. En esta tesis se presenta una novedosa descomposición del proceso de predicción de trayectorias en dos etapas. Dicha descomposición permite integrar adecuadamente los datos de la trayectoria de referencia calculada por el Flight Management System (FMS), disponibles usando Futuro Sistema de Navegación Aérea (FANS), en el sistema de predicción de trayectorias en tierra. FANS es un equipo presente en los aviones comerciales de fuselaje ancho actualmente en la producción, e incluso algunos aviones de fuselaje estrecho pueden tener instalada avionica FANS. Además de informar automáticamente de la posición de la aeronave, FANS permite proporcionar (parte de) la trayectoria de referencia en poder de los FMS, pero la explotación de esta capacidad para la mejora de la predicción de trayectorias no se ha estudiado en profundidad en el pasado. La predicción en dos etapas proporciona una solución adecuada al problema de sincronización de trayectorias aire-tierra dado que permite la sincronización de las dimensiones controladas por el sistema de guiado utilizando la información de la trayectoria de referencia proporcionada mediante FANS, y también facilita la mejora en la predicción de las dimensiones abiertas restantes usado un modelo del guiado que explota los modelos meteorológicos mejorados disponibles en tierra. Este proceso de predicción de la trayectoria de dos etapas se aplicó a una muestra de 438 vuelos reales que realizaron un descenso continuo (sin intervención del controlador) con destino Melbourne. Dichos vuelos son de aeronaves del modelo Boeing 737-800, si bien la metodología descrita es extrapolable a otros tipos de aeronave. El método propuesto de predicción de trayectorias permite una mejora en la desviación estándar del error de la estimación del tiempo de llegada al punto de interés, que es un 30% menor que la que obtiene el FMS. Dicha trayectoria prevista mejorada se puede utilizar para establecer la secuencia de arribadas y para la asignación de las franjas horarias para cada aterrizaje (slots). Sobre la base del slot asignado, se determina un perfil de velocidades que permita cumplir con dicho slot con un impacto mínimo en la eficiencia del vuelo. En la tesis se propone un nuevo algoritmo que determina las velocidades requeridas sin necesidad de un proceso iterativo de búsqueda sobre el sistema de predicción de trayectorias. El algoritmo se basa en una parametrización inteligente del proceso de predicción de la trayectoria, que permite relacionar el tiempo estimado de llegada con una función polinómica. Resolviendo dicho polinomio para el tiempo de llegada deseado, se obtiene de forma natural el perfil de velocidades optimo para cumplir con dicho tiempo de llegada sin comprometer la eficiencia. El diseño de los sistemas de gestión de arribadas propuesto en esta tesis aprovecha la aviónica y los sistemas de comunicación instalados de un modo mucho más eficiente, proporcionando valor añadido para la industria. Por tanto, la solución es compatible con la transición hacia los sistemas de aviónica avanzados que están desarrollándose actualmente. Los beneficios que se obtengan a lo largo de dicha transición son un incentivo para inversiones subsiguientes en la aviónica y en los sistemas de control de tráfico en tierra. ABSTRACT Air traffic management (ATM) is undergoing a paradigm shift towards trajectory based operations where the role of an air traffic controller evolves from that of continuous intervention towards supervision, as decision making is improved based on increased confidence in the solutions provided by advanced automation. To support this concept, significant investment for the development and acquisition of new equipment is required on the ground as well as in the air, to facilitate the high degree of trajectory synchronisation and information exchange required. Over the past 30-40 years the airline industry has generated one of the lowest returns on invested capital among all industries. Without tangible benefits realised, the airline industry may find it difficult to attract the required investment capital and delay acquiring equipment needed to realise the concept of trajectory based operations. In response to these challenges facing the modernisation of ATM, this thesis aims to answer the question whether existing aircraft capabilities can be applied to achieve sufficient trajectory synchronisation and improvements to ground-based trajectory prediction in support of the arrival management process, to realise some of the benefits envisioned under trajectory based operations, and to provide an incentive for further avionics upgrades. The proposed operational concept aims to permit aircraft to operate in a manner consistent with current optimal aircraft operating techniques. It allows aircraft to descend in the fuel efficient path managed mode as preferred by a majority of airlines, with arrival time not actively controlled by the airborne automation. The temporal uncertainty is managed through metering at strategically chosen points along the aircraft’s trajectory with primary use of speed advisories. While the focus is on speed advisories to support all aircraft and different levels of equipage, the concept also constitutes a framework in which advanced avionics as airborne time-of-arrival control can be integrated once this technology is widely available. In addition to managing temporal uncertainty through metering at multiple points, this temporal uncertainty is minimised by improving the supporting trajectory prediction capability. A novel two-stage trajectory prediction process is presented to adequately integrate aircraft trajectory data available through Future Air Navigation Systems (FANS) into the ground-based trajectory predictor. FANS is standard equipment on any wide-body aircraft in production today, and some single-aisle aircraft are easily capable of being fitted with FANS. In addition to automatic position reporting, FANS provides the ability to provide (part of) the reference trajectory held by the aircraft’s Flight Management System (FMS), but this capability has yet been widely overlooked. The two-stage process provides a ‘best of both world’s’ solution to the air-ground synchronisation problem by synchronising with the FMS reference trajectory those dimensions controlled by the guidance mode, and improving on the prediction of the remaining open dimensions by exploiting the high resolution meteorological forecast available to a ground-based system. The two-stage trajectory prediction process was applied to a sample of 438 FANS-equipped Boeing 737-800 flights into Melbourne conducting a continuous descent free from ATC intervention, and can be extrapolated to other types of aircraft. Trajectories predicted through the two-stage approach provided estimated time of arrivals with a 30% reduction in standard deviation of the error compared to estimated time of arrival calculated by the FMS. This improved predicted trajectory can subsequently be used to set the sequence and allocate landing slots. Based on the allocated landing slot, the proposed system calculates a speed schedule for the aircraft to meet this landing slot at minimal flight efficiency impact. A novel algorithm is presented that determines this speed schedule without requiring an iterative process in which multiple calls to a trajectory predictor need to be made. The algorithm is based on parameterisation of the trajectory prediction process, allowing the estimate time of arrival to be represented by a polynomial function of the speed schedule, providing an analytical solution to the speed schedule required to meet a set arrival time. The arrival management solution proposed in this thesis leverages the use of existing avionics and communications systems resulting in new value for industry for current investment. The solution therefore supports a transition concept from mixed equipage towards advanced avionics currently under development. Benefits realised under this transition may provide an incentive for ongoing investment in avionics.