A Prediction Model to Diabetes using Artificial Metaplasticity

Diabetes is the most common disease nowadays in all populations and in all age groups. Different techniques of artificial intelligence has been applied to diabetes problem. This research proposed the artificial metaplasticity on multilayer perceptron (AMMLP) as prediction model for prediction of diabetes. The Pima Indians diabetes was used to test the proposed model AMMLP. The results obtained by AMMLP were compared with other algorithms, recently proposed by other researchers, that were applied to the same database. The best result obtained so far with the AMMLP algorithm is 89.93%

Peligrosidad Sísmica en la Península Ibérica

Se estudia la peligrosidad sísmica en la Península Ibérica con una metodología no paramétrica basada en estimadores de densidad kernel; la tasa de actividad se deduce del catálogo, tanto en cuanto a su dependencia espacial (prescindiendo de zonificación) como en relación con la magnitud (obviando la ley de Gutenberg-Richter). El catálogo es el del Instituto Geográfico Nacional, complementado con otros en zonas periféricas, homogeneizado en su cuantificación de los terremotos y eliminando eventos espacial o temporalmente interrelacionados para mantener un modelo temporal de Poisson. La tasa de actividad sísmica viene determinada por la función kernel, el ancho de banda y los períodos efectivos. La tasa resultante se compara con la obtenida usando estadísticas de Gutenberg-Richter y una metodología zonificada. Se han empleado tres leyes de atenuación: una para terremotos profundos y dos para terremotos superficiales, dependiendo de que su magnitud fuera superior o inferior a 5. Los resultados se presentan en forma de mapas de peligrosidad para diversas frecuencias espectrales y períodos de retorno de 475 y 2475 años, lo que permite construir espectros de peligrosidad uniforme

Concrete Swelling in Two Spanish Dams

Several chemical reactions are able to produce swelling of concrete for decades after its initial curing, a problem that affects a considerable number of concrete dams around the world. Principia has had several contracts to study this problem in recent years, which have required reviewing the state-ofthe-art, adopting appropriate mathematical descriptions, programming them into user routines in Abaqus, determining model parameters on the basis of some parts of the dams’ monitored histories, ensuring reliability using some other parts, and finally predicting the future evolution of the dams and their safety margins. The paper describes some of the above experience, including the programming of sophisticated nonisotropic swelling models, that must be compatible with cracking and other nonlinearities involved in concrete behaviour. The applications concentrate on two specific cases, an arch-gravity dam and a double-curvature arch dam, both with a long history of concrete swelling and which, interestingly, entailed different degrees of success in the modelling efforts.

Effect of Concrete Swelling on the Equilibrium and Displacements of an Arch Dam

The Kariba dam is undergoing concrete expansion as a result of an alkali-aggregate reaction. The model adopted to simulate the process is explained in the paper; it is based on the model first proposed by Ulm et al, as later modified by Saouma and Perotti. It has been implemented in the commercial finite element code Abaqus and applied to solve the benchmark problem. The parameters of the model were calibrated using the data recorded up to 1995. The calibrated model was then used for predicting the evolution of the dam up to the present date. Apart from this prediction the paper offers a number of conclusions, such as the fact that the stress level appears to have a major influence on the expansion process; and it presents some suggestions to improve the formulation of the benchmark, such as providing temperature data and widening the locations and conditions of the data employed in the calibration

Survey and brain storming studies about machines, constructions, human and environmental risk consideration in the careers of the Universidad Politécnica of Madrid

The Universidad Politécnica of Madrid (UPM) includes schools and faculties that were for engineering degrees, architecture and computer science, that are now in a quick EEES Bolonia Plan metamorphosis getting into degrees, masters and doctorate structures. They are focused towards action in machines, constructions, enterprises, that are subjected to machines, human and environment created risks. These are present in actions such as use loads, wind, snow, waves, flows, earthquakes, forces and effects in machines, vehicles behavior, chemical effects, and other environmental factors including effects of crops, cattle and beasts, forests, and varied essential economic and social disturbances. Emphasis is for authors in this session more about risks of natural origin, such as for hail, winds, snow or waves that are not exactly known a priori, but that are often considered with statistical expected distributions giving extreme values for convenient return periods. These distributions are known from measures in time, statistic of extremes and models about hazard scenarios and about responses of man made constructions or devices. In each engineering field theories were built about hazards scenarios and how to cover for important risks. Engineers must get that the systems they handle, such as vehicles, machines, firms or agro lands or forests, obtain production with enough safety for persons and with decent economic results in spite of risks. For that risks must be considered in planning, in realization and in operation, and safety margins must be taken but at a reasonable cost. That is a small level of risks will often remain, due to limitations in costs or because of due to strange hazards, and maybe they will be covered by insurance in cases such as in transport with cars, ships or aircrafts, in agro for hail, or for fire in houses or in forests. These and other decisions about quality, security for men or about business financial risks are sometimes considered with Decision Theories models, using often tools from Statistics or operational Research. The authors have done and are following field surveys about risk consideration in the careers in UPM, making deep analysis of curricula taking into account the new structures of degrees in the EEES Bolonia Plan, and they have considered the risk structures offered by diverse schools of Decision theories. That gives an aspect of the needs and uses, and recommendations about improving in the teaching about risk, that may include special subjects especially oriented for each career, school or faculty, so as to be recommended to be included into the curricula, including an elaboration and presentation format using a multi-criteria decision model.

A simulation method to estimate closing forces in car-sealing rubber elements

The door-closing process can reinforce the impression of a solid, rock-proof, car body or of a rather cheap, flimsy vehicle. As there are no real prototypes during rubber profile bidding-out stages, engineers need to carry out non-linear numerical simulations that involve complex phenomena as well as static and dynamic loads for several profile candidates. This paper presents a structured virtual design tool based on FEM, including constitutive laws and incompressibility constraints allowing to predict more realistically the final closing forces and even to estimate sealing overpressure as an additional guarantee of noise insulation. Comparisons with results of physical tests are performed.

Advanced predictive quality control strategy involving different facilities

There are many industries that use highly technological solutions to improve quality in all of their products. The steel industry is one example. Several automatic surface-inspection systems are used in the steel industry to identify various types of defects and to help operators decide whether to accept, reroute, or downgrade the material, subject to the assessment process. This paper focuses on promoting a strategy that considers all defects in an integrated fashion. It does this by managing the uncertainty about the exact position of a defect due to different process conditions by means of Gaussian additive influence functions. The relevance of the approach is in making possible consistency and reliability between surface inspection systems. The results obtained are an increase in confidence in the automatic inspection system and an ability to introduce improved prediction and advanced routing models. The prediction is provided to technical operators to help them in their decision-making process. It shows the increase in improvement gained by reducing the 40 % of coils that are downgraded at the hot strip mill because of specific defects. In addition, this technology facilitates an increase of 50 % in the accuracy of the estimate of defect survival after the cleaning facility in comparison to the former approach. The proposed technology is implemented by means of software-based, multi-agent solutions. It makes possible the independent treatment of information, presentation, quality analysis, and other relevant functions.

The new challenges of end-of-life tyres management systems: a Spanish case study

Directive 2008/98/EC released by the European Union represents a significant step forward in all relevant aspects of waste management. Under the already established, extended produced responsibility (EPR) principle, new policies have been enunciated to continuously achieve better overall environmental performance of key products throughout their life phases. This paper discusses how the directive is being articulated in Spain by the main integrated management system (IMS) for end-of-life (EOL) tyres since its creation in 2006. Focusing on the IMS technological, economic and legal aspects, the study provides a global perspective and evaluation of how the IMS is facing the current issues to resolve, the new challenges that have appeared and the management vision for the coming years.

Ingeniería Forestal y ambiental en medios insulares

Las Islas Canarias a pesar de su reducida extensión y del relativo poco peso específico a nivel mundial, no es ajena a los problemas globales detectados en la conservación de bosques y en la importancia que éstos tienen para obtener beneficios económicos, socioculturales y ambientales. La gestión forestal sostenible es en este sentido esencial para asegurar y compatibilizar los diversos beneficios del bosque. El papel específico de los bosques y su gestión son sin embargo temas aún por conocer en nuestras islas, por lo que el Año Internacional de los Bosques ha representado una oportunidad única para dar a conocer el mundo forestal y acercarlo a nuestra sociedad. El presente libro consta de 25 capítulos donde se ha contemplado la mayoría de los aspectos a tener en cuenta en la planificación y gestión del medio forestal y natural. Desde la historia forestal del archipiélago, hasta el uso y técnicas de manejo de los recursos naturales, incluyendo el agua, la energía en forma de biomasa y la selvicultura.

Simulation of Temperatures and Stresses during Construction of a RCC Dam

Se describen las variaciones de temperaturas y de tensiones durante la construcción de presas de hormigón compactado. The curing of concrete is an exothermic process. The heat of hydration generated induces temperature increases in the concrete, which will disappear in the long term by heat conduction in the concrete mass and thermal exchanges with the environment. The problem is of particularly interest for large concrete masses, as is the case of dams, because the time involved in the heat diffusion process grows with the square of the dimensions and a hotter dam interior implies the possibility of cracking the exposed surfaces of the dam. The Cuira dam, currently being built in Venezuela using roller compacted concrete, is a 134 m high, arch-gravity dam. In support of the design, different strategies were analysed, including various combinations of cooling of the water and the aggregate in order to achieve acceptable results. The calculations were conducted with Abaqus, taking into account all the necessary mechanical and thermal characteristics, as well as the relevant non-linearities. The analyses led to the conclusion that no cooling was required, even taking into account the stress state imposed by an early and rapid filling of the reservoir.

Calibración de Modelos Constitutivos de Hormigón

En este artículo se describen diversos modelos constitutivos del comportamiento dilatante del hormigón. Se describe una metodología para caracterizar el comportamiento mecánico del hormigón. En particular se calibra el modelo de plasticidad y daño para hormigón de Abaqus/Standard y Abaqus/Explicit a partir de ensayos uniaxiales y tria xiales en probetas cilíndricas. El modelo se enriquece con una subrutina de usuario para capturar mejor la ductilidad del material sometido a moderadas presiones de confinamiento. Además se define una variable de estado para controlar la eliminación de elementos. Finalmente se muestran algunos ejemplos de aplicación de impactos de proyectiles deformables y rígidos sobre muros de hormigón armado, incluyendo técnicas especiales como la conversión de elementos sólidos a partículas (SPH).

Seismic Activity Rates in the Iberian Peninsula

Evaluating the seismic hazard requires establishing a distribution of the seismic activity rate, irrespective of the methodology used in the evaluation. In practice, how that activity rate is established tends to be the main difference between the various evaluation methods. The traditional procedure relies on a seismogenic zonation and the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) hypothesis. Competing zonations are often compared looking only at the geometry of the zones, but the resulting activity rate is affected by both geometry and the values assigned to the GR parameters. Contour plots can be used for conducting more meaningful comparisons, providing the GR parameters are suitably normalised. More recent approaches for establishing the seismic activity rate forego the use of zones and GR statistics and special attention is paid here to such procedures. The paper presents comparisons between the local activity rates that result for the complete Iberian Peninsula using kernel estimators as well as two seismogenic zonations. It is concluded that the smooth variation of the seismic activity rate produced by zoneless methods is more realistic than the stepwise changes associated with zoned approaches; moreover, the choice of zonation often has a stronger influence on the results than its fairly subjective origin would warrant. It is also observed that the activity rate derived from the kernel approach, related with the GR parameter “a”, is qualitatively consistent with the epicentres in the catalogue. Finally, when comparing alternative zonations it is not just their geometry but the distribution of activity rate that should be compared.

Concrete Swelling in a Double Curvature Dam

Se describe el problema del hinchamiento del hormigón en las presas de doble curvatura. Several chemical reactions are able to produce swelling of concrete for decades after its initial curing, a problem that affects a considerable number of concrete dams around the world. The object of the work reported is to simulate the underlying mechanisms with sufficient accuracy to reproduce the past history and to predict the future evolution reliably. Having studied the available formulations, that considered to be more promising was adopted and introduced via user routines in a commercial finite element code. It is a non isotropic swelling model,compatible with the cracking and other non-linearities displayed by the concrete. The paper concentrates on the work conducted for a double-curvature arch dam. The model parameters were determined on the basis of some parts of the dam’s monitored histories, reliability was then verified using other parts and, finally, predictions were made about the future evolution of the dam and its safety margin.

Fluid-Structure Interaction in Civil Engineering Structures

The problems being addressed involve the dynamic interaction of solids (structure and foundation) with a liquid (water). Various numerical procedures are reviewed and employed to solve the problem of establishing the expected response of a structure subjected to seismic excitations while duly accounting for those interactions. The methodology is applied to the analysis of dams, lock gates, and large storage tanks, incorporating in some cases a comparison with the results produced by means of simplified analytical procedures.

Evaluación de procesos de desgaste en turbinas aeronáuticas mediante espectrometría por disco rotativo(rde) y por contador de partículas láser(lnf)

En esta ponencia se realiza una revisión de diferentes metodologías para la evaluación de procesos de desgaste en turbinas aéreas derivadas. Mediante el análisis de las características del lubricante utilizado, a través de espectrometría de micropartículas y de la evaluación por contadores de partículas de tamaño superior a los 20 micrómetros, se pretende determinar procesos de desgaste y correlaciones entre diversos parámetros de funcionamiento de la turbina. Para ello se presentan las principales metodologías de análisis de aceite en uso, indicando la información que suministran, los ámbitos en los que su aplicación es pertinente, y se muestran los resultados de diferentes casos de aplicación correspondientes tanto a aeronaves de ala fija como de ala rotativa.