Advancements in the design and validation of an air pollution integrated assessment model for Spain

This paper describes the design and application of the Atmospheric Evaluation and Research Integrated model for Spain (AERIS). Currently, AERIS can provide concentration profiles of NO2, O3, SO2, NH3, PM, as a response to emission variations of relevant sectors in Spain. Results are calculated using transfer matrices based on an air quality modelling system (AQMS) composed by the WRF (meteorology), SMOKE (emissions) and CMAQ (atmospheric-chemical processes) models. The AERIS outputs were statistically tested against the conventional AQMS and observations, revealing a good agreement in both cases. At the moment, integrated assessment in AERIS focuses only on the link between emissions and concentrations. The quantification of deposition, impacts (health, ecosystems) and costs will be introduced in the future. In conclusion, the main asset of AERIS is its accuracy in predicting air quality outcomes for different scenarios through a simple yet robust modelling framework, avoiding complex programming and long computing times.

Best practices for school leaders: implementation of a professional competence model for school management in Chile

In Chile, during the last three decades there has been a strong decentralization process whose main objective has been to improve the management of schools through the transfer of responsibilities and resources of education and thus improve the outcome of learning, reducing equity gaps between schools and territories. This is how, there has been an evolution of school principals¿ professional profile from an administrative to a management approach, in which principals have become project managers of educational projects. From a competence model for school leaders, based on IPMA guidelines, the present article presents an analysis of best practices for school management, allowing to generate a link between competencies and school management, from the perspective of project management. Results showed that the different competence elements, have relative weights according to the different practice fields, and that this analysis can be considered as a strategic element in educational project planning and development.

Initializing the DSSAT-Century model: inverse calibration of carbon pools from apparent soil N mineralization

The CENTURY soil organic matter model was adapted for the DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer), modular format in order to better simulate the dynamics of soil organic nutrient processes (Gijsman et al., 2002). The CENTURY model divides the soil organic carbon (SOC) into three hypothetical pools: microbial or active material (SOC1), intermediate (SOC2) and the largely inert and stable material (SOC3) (Jones et al., 2003). At the beginning of the simulation, CENTURY model needs a value of SOC3 per soil layer which can be estimated by the model (based on soil texture and management history) or given as an input. Then, the model assigns about 5% and 95% of the remaining SOC to SOC1 and SOC2, respectively. The model performance when simulating SOC and nitrogen (N) dynamics strongly depends on the initialization process. The common methods (e.g. Basso et al., 2011) to initialize SOC pools deal mostly with carbon (C) mineralization processes and less with N. Dynamics of SOM, SOC, and soil organic N are linked in the CENTURY-DSSAT model through the C/N ratio of decomposing material that determines either mineralization or immobilization of N (Gijsman et al., 2002). The aim of this study was to evaluate an alternative method to initialize the SOC pools in the DSSAT-CENTURY model from apparent soil N mineralization (Napmin) field measurements by using automatic inverse calibration (simulated annealing). The results were compared with the ones obtained by the iterative initialization procedure developed by Basso et al., 2011.

Cooperative Learning Model based on Multi-Agent Architecture for Embedded Intelligent Systems

Cooperative systems are suitable for many types of applications and nowadays these system are vastly used to improve a previously defined system or to coordinate multiple devices working together. This paper provides an alternative to improve the reliability of a previous intelligent identification system. The proposed approach implements a cooperative model based on multi-agent architecture. This new system is composed of several radar-based systems which identify a detected object and transmit its own partial result by implementing several agents and by using a wireless network to transfer data. The proposed topology is a centralized architecture where the coordinator device is in charge of providing the final identification result depending on the group behavior. In order to find the final outcome, three different mechanisms are introduced. The simplest one is based on majority voting whereas the others use two different weighting voting procedures, both providing the system with learning capabilities. Using an appropriate network configuration, the success rate can be improved from the initial 80% up to more than 90%.

Paisaje de energías: conocimiento estético en el enfoque ambiental del proyecto

Desde hace ya varias décadas la praxis de la ecología ha venido reconociendo la necesidad de estudiar los múltiples sistemas de interacción del ser humano, como especie viva, y su entorno. Entidades espaciales como el paisaje geográfico son empleadas para delimitar sistemas territoriales operados por la sociedad, precisando campos concretos de su acción física, biológica y cultural. La ecología aborda así el conocimiento científico del territorio como asentamiento humano, rastrea sus patrones espaciales y analiza su compleja estructura funcional. En ese contexto, la transferencia de herramientas e instrumentos desde la ecología al ámbito proyectivo posee ya un bagaje de más de cinco décadas. Cada vez con más frecuencia el proyecto emplea parámetros, inventarios, fórmulas, indicadores y tecnologías que tratan de dar una respuesta ambientalmente adecuada a los condicionantes de contorno, por ejemplo aprovechando las condiciones climáticas en la optimización energética o proponiendo programas de usos del suelo que eviten perturbaciones en ecosistemas de interés. Con todo, en el momento presente surgen voces que, ante el dominio indiscutible de los enfoques netamente deterministas, tratan de recordar que los principios del pensamiento ecológico van más allá del mero control cuantitativo de los procesos biofísicos. Recuerdan que la etología demostró a principios del XX que el ser humano, como ser consciente, inviste una relación de intimidad con su entorno que supera tales perspectivas: a través de la correspondencia entre percepción y significación, entre lo físico y lo psíquico, entre interioridad y exterioridad, las personas abrazan la plenitud de aquello que les rodea en un acto de profunda conciliación afectiva. De tal ligadura de intimidad depende, sí o sí, y en toda su profundidad, la aceptación humana del entorno construido. A través de la noción de ambiente [Umwelt] se demuestra que la relación del hombre con su entorno es inseparable, bidireccional y coordinada y, por lo tanto, desde una posición coherente, la experiencia del espacio puede ser examinada a partir de la reciprocidad que constituyen, en continuidad, la persona y el lugar. De esta forma, la tesis dirige su objetivo principal a explorar y considerar, desde el proyecto, el significado y la influencia de la experiencia ambiental del espacio construido en la vida humana. Es más que probable que buena parte de los problemas de desafección del hombre con los paisajes transformados de su contemporaneidad tenga que ver con que tanto las intensidades de la experiencia y percepción humana, como la potestad interpretativa de sus productos culturales, incluyendo la arquitectura, han sido fuertemente reducidas. Ante este problema, la investigación toma como hipótesis la oportunidad que ofrece el pensamiento ecológico de reformular la experiencia estética como un acto de conocimiento, como un evento donde se da el encuentro físico y se construyen significados, donde se sancionan valores sociales y se mira hacia el futuro. Se ha de señalar que la presente tesis doctoral arranca en el Laboratorio de Paisaje del Grupo de Investigación Paisaje Cultural de la Universidad Politécnica de Madrid dirigido por Concha Lapayese y Darío Gazapo, y por tanto hace suyos para el estado del arte los principales conceptos e ideas bajo los que el trabajo teórico y práctico del grupo se viene orientando desde hace años: la consideración del paisaje como acontecimiento; la oscilación de la interpretación entre un paisaje específico y un paisaje genérico en un mundo globalizado; el reconocimiento de la experiencia estética del paisaje como una toma de conciencia social; y en definitiva, la reivindicación de la interioridad en el proyecto contemporáneo. La investigación profundiza en una línea de oportunidad que se abre al promover lo que se ha llamado un conocimiento por lo sentido como estrategia ambiental que permite contrarrestar mitos profundamente arraigados en las estructuras sociales. El primer paso en ese recorrido sería explorar ecológicamente el aporte de la experiencia estética; esto es, su consideración como forma de conocimiento específico. Resultaría pertinente impulsar la idea de la inmersión en el paisaje como fenómeno experiencial, sensual y corporal, y enfrentar, desde ahí, el problema de la aceptación social de lo nuevo y lo trasformado de acuerdo con el momento actual. La exploración sobre la afectividad en el ambiente no es, en cualquier caso, un asunto nuevo. Sin pretensiones de historiografía, dos momentos del siglo XX concentran el interés de la investigación. La primera se corresponde fundamentalmente con la segunda década del siglo, en relación a una serie de influencias que desde los avances científicos determinaron singulares aventuras del arte más experimental. La segunda se posiciona en el entorno de 1970, época en la que es conocido el interés que despertaron las cuestiones ambientales. En ambos casos se han estudiado aportaciones que desvelan conceptos determinantes en la definición de la experiencia estética como un evento de adquisición de conocimiento por lo sentido. Es conveniente adelantar el rol de centralidad que para la investigación tiene el concepto de energía, tal como el propio título subraya. La energía como realidad material y sensible es el sustrato que permite navegar por el principio de unidad epistemológica que subyace al pensamiento ecológico. Sus continuas referencias simbólicas, físicas y metafóricas entre los artistas estudiados no son un mero recurso iconográfico: mantienen inherente el principio de continuidad ambiental en el cual el ser humano y la inmensidad del cosmos navegan indisociables. Un discurso unificado y consistente sobre los aportes de la experiencia estética enfocada como forma de conocimiento por lo sentido hila la lectura histórica, conceptual y práctica de toda la investigación. Con ello se alcanza a hilvanar un diagrama conceptual, modelo de análisis proyectivo, que recoge ideas científicas, filosóficas y proyectivas. De alguna manera, el diagrama trata de dibujar, desde los principios del pensamiento ecológico, la correlación de continuidad que, vacilante, tensa, sutil y frágil se desplaza incesante e irresuelta entre interioridad y exterioridad. ABSTRACT Over the last few decades ecological practice has come to acknowledge a need for studying the multiple systems of interaction between the human being - inasmuch as it is a living species - and its environment. Spatial entities such as the geographic notion of landscape have been used to delimitate the territorial systems operated by society and to describe in detail specific fields of its physical, biological and cultural action. Ecology has thus managed to address the scientific knowledge of the territory as a human settlement, tracking its spatial patterns and analysing its complex functional structure. In this context, the transfer of tools and instruments from the field of ecology to that of design has a tradition already going back more than fifty years. Increasingly more often, design makes use of parameters, inventories, formulas, indicators and technologies to give an environmentally sound response to contour conditions: for instance, taking advantage of the local climate for the optimisation of energy consumption or proposing land uses that avoid disturbing valuable ecosystems. Yet in the present day some voices have arisen that, against the uncontested domination of purely positivistic approaches, are trying to draw attention to the fact that the principles of ecological thought go beyond mere quantitative control of biophysical processes. They point out that, in the early 20th century, ethology proved that the human being, as a conscious entity, invests itself into a relationship of intimacy with its environment that surpasses such perspectives: through the correspondences between perception and signification, between physical and psychological or between inside and outside, people embrace the entirety of their surroundings in an action of deep affective conciliation. It is on this link of intimacy that - fully and unquestionably - human acceptance of the built environment depends. Through the notion of environment [Umwelt] it can be proven that the relationship between the human being and its environment is inseparable, bidirectional and coordinated; and that, therefore, from a coherent position the experience of space can be examined through the reciprocity constituted continuously by person and place. Thus, the main goal in this thesis is to explore and acknowledge, from the standpoint of design, the meaning and influence of the environmental experience in human life. It is extremely likely that many of the issues with mankind’s alienation from the transformed landscapes of the present day arise from the fact that both the intensity of human perception and experience and the interpretive capacity of its cultural products –including architecture - have been greatly reduced. Facing this issue, research has taken as hypothesis the opportunity offered by ecological thought of reformulating aesthetic experience as an act of knowledge – as an event where physical encounter takes place and meanings are constructed; where social values are sanctioned and the path towards the future is drawn. This notwithstanding, the present thesis began in the Landscape Laboratory of the Technical University of Madrid Cultural Landscape Research Group (GIPC-UPM), led by Concha Lapayese and Darío Gazapo; and has therefore appropriated for its state of the art the main concepts and ideas that have been orienting the practical and theoretical work of the latter: the understanding of landscape as an event, the oscillation of interpretation between a specific and a generic landscape within a globalised world; the acknowledgement of the aesthetic experience of landscape as a way of acquiring social awareness; and, all in all, a vindication of interiority in contemporary design. An exploration has been made of the line of opportunity that is opened when promoting what has been termed knowledge through the senses as an environmental strategy allowing to counter myths deeply rooted in social structures. The first step in this path would be an ecological exploration of the contribution of the aesthetic experience; that is, its consideration as a type of specific knowledge. It would be pertinent to further the idea of immersion into the landscape as an experiential, sensual and corporeal phenomenon and, from that point, to face the issue of social acceptance of what is new and transformed according to the values of the present day. The exploration of affectivity in the environment is not, at any rate, a new topic. Without aspiring to make a history of it, we can mark two points in the 20th century that have concentrated the interest of this research. The first coincides with the second decade of the century and relates to a number of influences that, arising from scientific progress, determined the singular adventures of the more experimental tendencies in art. The second is centred around 1970: a period in which the interest drawn by environmental matters is well known. In both cases, contributions have been studied that reveal crucial concepts in defining the aesthetic experience as an event for the acquisition of knowledge through the senses. It is necessary to highlight the role of centrality that the concept of energy has throughout this research, as is evident even in its title. Energy as a material, sensitive reality is the substrate making it possible to navigate through the principle of epistemological unity underlying ecological thought. The continuous symbolic, physical and metaphorical references to it among the artists studied here are not a mere iconographic source: they remind of the inherency of the principle of environmental continuity within which the human being and the immensity of cosmos travel indissociably. A unified, consistent discourse on the contributions of the aesthetic experience addressed as knowledge through the senses weaves together the historic, conceptual and practical reading of the whole research. With it, a conceptual diagram is constructed – a model of design analysis – gathering together scientific, philosophical and design ideas. Somehow, the diagram tries to draw from the principles of ecological thought the correlation of continuity that, vacillating, tense, subtle and fragile, shifts incessantly and unresolved between interiority and exteriority.

Engineering Computational Emotion - A Reference Model for Emotion in Artificial Systems

Emotion is generally argued to be an influence on the behavior of life systems, largely concerning flexibility and adaptivity. The way in which life systems acts in response to a particular situations of the environment, has revealed the decisive and crucial importance of this feature in the success of behaviors. And this source of inspiration has influenced the way of thinking artificial systems. During the last decades, artificial systems have undergone such an evolution that each day more are integrated in our daily life. They have become greater in complexity, and the subsequent effects are related to an increased demand of systems that ensure resilience, robustness, availability, security or safety among others. All of them questions that raise quite a fundamental challenges in control design. This thesis has been developed under the framework of the Autonomous System project, a.k.a the ASys-Project. Short-term objectives of immediate application are focused on to design improved systems, and the approaching of intelligence in control strategies. Besides this, long-term objectives underlying ASys-Project concentrate on high order capabilities such as cognition, awareness and autonomy. This thesis is placed within the general fields of Engineery and Emotion science, and provides a theoretical foundation for engineering and designing computational emotion for artificial systems. The starting question that has grounded this thesis aims the problem of emotion--based autonomy. And how to feedback systems with valuable meaning has conformed the general objective. Both the starting question and the general objective, have underlaid the study of emotion, the influence on systems behavior, the key foundations that justify this feature in life systems, how emotion is integrated within the normal operation, and how this entire problem of emotion can be explained in artificial systems. By assuming essential differences concerning structure, purpose and operation between life and artificial systems, the essential motivation has been the exploration of what emotion solves in nature to afterwards analyze analogies for man--made systems. This work provides a reference model in which a collection of entities, relationships, models, functions and informational artifacts, are all interacting to provide the system with non-explicit knowledge under the form of emotion-like relevances. This solution aims to provide a reference model under which to design solutions for emotional operation, but related to the real needs of artificial systems. The proposal consists of a multi-purpose architecture that implement two broad modules in order to attend: (a) the range of processes related to the environment affectation, and (b) the range or processes related to the emotion perception-like and the higher levels of reasoning. This has required an intense and critical analysis beyond the state of the art around the most relevant theories of emotion and technical systems, in order to obtain the required support for those foundations that sustain each model. The problem has been interpreted and is described on the basis of AGSys, an agent assumed with the minimum rationality as to provide the capability to perform emotional assessment. AGSys is a conceptualization of a Model-based Cognitive agent that embodies an inner agent ESys, the responsible of performing the emotional operation inside of AGSys. The solution consists of multiple computational modules working federated, and aimed at conforming a mutual feedback loop between AGSys and ESys. Throughout this solution, the environment and the effects that might influence over the system are described as different problems. While AGSys operates as a common system within the external environment, ESys is designed to operate within a conceptualized inner environment. And this inner environment is built on the basis of those relevances that might occur inside of AGSys in the interaction with the external environment. This allows for a high-quality separate reasoning concerning mission goals defined in AGSys, and emotional goals defined in ESys. This way, it is provided a possible path for high-level reasoning under the influence of goals congruence. High-level reasoning model uses knowledge about emotional goals stability, letting this way new directions in which mission goals might be assessed under the situational state of this stability. This high-level reasoning is grounded by the work of MEP, a model of emotion perception that is thought as an analogy of a well-known theory in emotion science. The work of this model is described under the operation of a recursive-like process labeled as R-Loop, together with a system of emotional goals that are assumed as individual agents. This way, AGSys integrates knowledge that concerns the relation between a perceived object, and the effect which this perception induces on the situational state of the emotional goals. This knowledge enables a high-order system of information that provides the sustain for a high-level reasoning. The extent to which this reasoning might be approached is just delineated and assumed as future work. This thesis has been studied beyond a long range of fields of knowledge. This knowledge can be structured into two main objectives: (a) the fields of psychology, cognitive science, neurology and biological sciences in order to obtain understanding concerning the problem of the emotional phenomena, and (b) a large amount of computer science branches such as Autonomic Computing (AC), Self-adaptive software, Self-X systems, Model Integrated Computing (MIC) or the paradigm of models@runtime among others, in order to obtain knowledge about tools for designing each part of the solution. The final approach has been mainly performed on the basis of the entire acquired knowledge, and described under the fields of Artificial Intelligence, Model-Based Systems (MBS), and additional mathematical formalizations to provide punctual understanding in those cases that it has been required. This approach describes a reference model to feedback systems with valuable meaning, allowing for reasoning with regard to (a) the relationship between the environment and the relevance of the effects on the system, and (b) dynamical evaluations concerning the inner situational state of the system as a result of those effects. And this reasoning provides a framework of distinguishable states of AGSys derived from its own circumstances, that can be assumed as artificial emotion.

Nuevo paradigma para decisiones colectivas en entornos no competitivos

La tesis estudia uno de los aspectos más importantes de la gestión de la sociedad de la información: conocer la manera en que una persona valora cualquier situación. Esto es importante para el individuo que realiza la valoración y para el entorno con el que se relaciona. La valoración es el resultado de la comparación: se asignan los mismos valores a alternativas similares y mayores valores a alternativas mejor consideradas en el proceso de comparación. Los patrones que guían al individuo a la hora de hacer la comparación se derivan de sus preferencias individuales (es decir, de sus opiniones). En la tesis se presentan varios procedimientos para establecer las relaciones de preferencia entre alternativas de una persona. La valoración progresa hasta obtener una representación numérica de sus preferencias. Cuando la representación de preferencias es homogénea permite, además, contrastar las preferencias personales con las del resto de evaluadores, lo que favorece la evaluación de políticas, la transferencia de información entre diferentes individuos y el diseño de la alternativa que mejor se adapte a las preferencias identificadas. Al mismo tiempo, con esta información se pueden construir comunidades de personas con los mismos sistemas de preferencias ante una cuestión concreta. La tesis muestra un caso de aplicación de esta metodología: optimización de las políticas laborales en un mercado real. Para apoyar a los demandantes de empleo (en su iniciación o reincorporación al mundo laboral o en el cambio de su actividad) es necesario conocer sus preferencias respecto a las ocupaciones que están dispuestos a desempeñar. Además, para que la intermediación laboral sea efectiva, las ocupaciones buscadas deben de ser ofrecidas por el mercado de trabajo y el demandante debe reunir las condiciones para acceder a esas ocupaciones. El siguiente desarrollo de estos modelos nos lleva a los procedimientos utilizados para transformar múltiples preferencias en una decisión agregada y que consideran tanto la opinión de cada uno de los individuos que participan en la decisión como las interacciones sociales, todo ello dirigido a generar una solución que se ajuste lo mejor posible al punto de vista de toda la población. Las decisiones con múltiples participantes inciden, principalmente, en: el aumento del alcance para incorporar a personas que tradicionalmente no han sido consideradas en las tomas de decisiones, la agregación de las preferencias de los múltiples participantes en las tomas de decisiones colectivas (mediante votación, utilizando aplicaciones desarrolladas para la Web2.0 y a través de comparaciones interpersonales de utilidad) y, finalmente, la auto-organización para permitir que interaccionen entre si los participantes en la valoración, de forma que hagan que el resultado final sea mejor que la mera agregación de opiniones individuales. La tesis analiza los sistemas de e-democracia o herramientas para su implantación que tienen más más utilización en la actualidad o son más avanzados. Están muy relacionados con la web 2.0 y su implantación está suponiendo una evolución de la democracia actual. También se estudian aplicaciones de software de Colaboración en la toma de decisiones (Collaborative decision-making (CDM)) que ayudan a dar sentido y significado a los datos. Pretenden coordinar las funciones y características necesarias para llegar a decisiones colectivas oportunas, lo que permite a todos los interesados participar en el proceso. La tesis finaliza con la presentación de un nuevo modelo o paradigma en la toma de decisiones con múltiples participantes. El desarrollo se apoya en el cálculo de las funciones de utilidad empática. Busca la colaboración entre los individuos para que la toma de decisiones sea más efectiva, además pretende aumentar el número de personas implicadas. Estudia las interacciones y la retroalimentación entre ciudadanos, ya que la influencia de unos ciudadanos en los otros es fundamental para los procesos de toma de decisiones colectivas y de e-democracia. También incluye métodos para detectar cuando se ha estancado el proceso y se debe interrumpir. Este modelo se aplica a la consulta de los ciudadanos de un municipio sobre la oportunidad de implantar carriles-bici y las características que deben tomar. Se simula la votación e interacción entre los votantes. ABSTRACT The thesis examines one of the most important aspects of the management of the information society: get to know how a person values every situation. This is important for the individual performing the assessment and for the environment with which he interacts. The assessment is a result of the comparison: identical values are allocated to similar alternatives and higher values are assigned to those alternatives that are more favorably considered in the comparison process. Patterns that guide the individual in making the comparison are derived from his individual preferences (ie, his opinions). In the thesis several procedures to establish preference relations between alternatives a person are presented. The assessment progresses to obtain a numerical representation of his preferences. When the representation of preferences is homogeneous, it also allows the personal preferences of each individual to be compared with those of other evaluators, favoring policy evaluation, the transfer of information between different individuals and design the alternative that best suits the identified preferences. At the same time, with this information you can build communities of people with similar systems of preferences referred to a particular issue. The thesis shows a case of application of this methodology: optimization of labour policies in a real market. To be able support jobseekers (in their initiation or reinstatement to employment or when changing area of professional activity) is necessary to know their preferences for jobs that he is willing to perform. In addition, for labour mediation to be effective occupations that are sought must be offered by the labour market and the applicant must meet the conditions for access to these occupations. Further development of these models leads us to the procedures used to transform multiple preferences in an aggregate decision and consider both the views of each of the individuals involved in the decision and the social interactions, all aimed at generating a solution that best fits of the point of view of the entire population. Decisions with multiple participants mainly focus on: increasing the scope to include people who traditionally have not been considered in decision making, aggregation of the preferences of multiple participants in collective decision making (by vote, using applications developed for the Web 2.0 and through interpersonal comparisons of utility) and, finally, self-organization to allow participants to interact with each other in the assessment, so that the final result is better than the mere aggregation of individual opinions. The thesis analyzes the systems of e-democracy or tools for implementation which are more popular or more advanced. They are closely related to the Web 2.0 and its implementation is bringing an evolution of the current way of understanding democracy. We have also studied Collaborative Decision-Making (CDM)) software applications in decision-making which help to give sense and meaning to the data. They intend to coordinate the functions and features needed to reach adequate collective decisions, allowing all stakeholders to participate in the process. The thesis concludes with the presentation of a new model or paradigm in decision-making with multiple participants. The development is based on the calculation of the empathic utility functions. It seeks collaboration between individuals to make decision-making more effective; it also aims to increase the number of people involved. It studies the interactions and feedback among citizens, because the influence of some citizens in the other is fundamental to the process of collective decision-making and e-democracy. It also includes methods for detecting when the process has stalled and should be discontinued. This model is applied to the consultation of the citizens of a municipality on the opportunity to introduce bike lanes and characteristics they should have. Voting and interaction among voters is simulated.

Nonlinear analysis of a simple model of temperature evolution in a satellite

We analyze a simple model of the heat transfer to and from a small satellite orbiting round a solar system planet. Our approach considers the satellite isothermal, with external heat input from the environment and from internal energy dissipation, and output to the environment as black-body radiation. The resulting nonlinear ordinary differential equation for the satellite’s temperature is analyzed by qualitative, perturbation and numerical methods, which prove that the temperature approaches a periodic pattern (attracting limit cycle). This approach can occur in two ways, according to the values of the parameters: (i) a slow decay towards the limit cycle over a time longer than the period, or (ii) a fast decay towards the limit cycle over a time shorter than the period. In the first case, an exactly soluble average equation is valid. We discuss the consequences of our model for the thermal stability of satellites.