A stochastic model updating method for parameter variability quantification based on response surface models and Monte Carlo simulation

Stochastic model updating must be considered for quantifying uncertainties inherently existing in real-world engineering structures. By this means the statistical properties,instead of deterministic values, of structural parameters can be sought indicating the parameter variability. However, the implementation of stochastic model updating is much more complicated than that of deterministic methods particularly in the aspects of theoretical complexity and low computational efficiency. This study attempts to propose a simple and cost-efficient method by decomposing a stochastic updating process into a series of deterministic ones with the aid of response surface models and Monte Carlo simulation. The response surface models are used as surrogates for original FE models in the interest of programming simplification, fast response computation and easy inverse optimization. Monte Carlo simulation is adopted for generating samples from the assumed or measured probability distributions of responses. Each sample corresponds to an individual deterministic inverse process predicting the deterministic values of parameters. Then the parameter means and variances can be statistically estimated based on all the parameter predictions by running all the samples. Meanwhile, the analysis of variance approach is employed for the evaluation of parameter variability significance. The proposed method has been demonstrated firstly on a numerical beam and then a set of nominally identical steel plates tested in the laboratory. It is found that compared with the existing stochastic model updating methods, the proposed method presents similar accuracy while its primary merits consist in its simple implementation and cost efficiency in response computation and inverse optimization.

Application of a Bayesian/Generalised Least-Squares method to generate correlations between independent neutron fission yield data

Fission product yields are fundamental parameters for several nuclear engineering calculations and in particular for burn-up/activation problems. The impact of their uncertainties was widely studied in the past and valuations were released, although still incomplete. Recently, the nuclear community expressed the need for full fission yield covariance matrices to produce inventory calculation results that take into account the complete uncertainty data. In this work, we studied and applied a Bayesian/generalised least-squares method for covariance generation, and compared the generated uncertainties to the original data stored in the JEFF-3.1.2 library. Then, we focused on the effect of fission yield covariance information on fission pulse decay heat results for thermal fission of 235U. Calculations were carried out using different codes (ACAB and ALEPH-2) after introducing the new covariance values. Results were compared with those obtained with the uncertainty data currently provided by the library. The uncertainty quantification was performed with the Monte Carlo sampling technique. Indeed, correlations between fission yields strongly affect the statistics of decay heat. Introduction Nowadays, any engineering calculation performed in the nuclear field should be accompanied by an uncertainty analysis. In such an analysis, different sources of uncertainties are taken into account. Works such as those performed under the UAM project (Ivanov, et al., 2013) treat nuclear data as a source of uncertainty, in particular cross-section data for which uncertainties given in the form of covariance matrices are already provided in the major nuclear data libraries. Meanwhile, fission yield uncertainties were often neglected or treated shallowly, because their effects were considered of second order compared to cross-sections (Garcia-Herranz, et al., 2010). However, the Working Party on International Nuclear Data Evaluation Co-operation (WPEC)

Feasibility assessment of the interactive use of a Monte Carlo algorithm in treatment planning for intraoperative electron radiation therapy

This work analysed the feasibility of using a fast, customized Monte Carlo (MC) method to perform accurate computation of dose distributions during pre- and intraplanning of intraoperative electron radiation therapy (IOERT) procedures. The MC method that was implemented, which has been integrated into a specific innovative simulation and planning tool, is able to simulate the fate of thousands of particles per second, and it was the aim of this work to determine the level of interactivity that could be achieved. The planning workflow enabled calibration of the imaging and treatment equipment, as well as manipulation of the surgical frame and insertion of the protection shields around the organs at risk and other beam modifiers. In this way, the multidisciplinary team involved in IOERT has all the tools necessary to perform complex MC dosage simulations adapted to their equipment in an efficient and transparent way. To assess the accuracy and reliability of this MC technique, dose distributions for a monoenergetic source were compared with those obtained using a general-purpose software package used widely in medical physics applications. Once accuracy of the underlying simulator was confirmed, a clinical accelerator was modelled and experimental measurements in water were conducted. A comparison was made with the output from the simulator to identify the conditions under which accurate dose estimations could be obtained in less than 3 min, which is the threshold imposed to allow for interactive use of the tool in treatment planning. Finally, a clinically relevant scenario, namely early-stage breast cancer treatment, was simulated with pre- and intraoperative volumes to verify that it was feasible to use the MC tool intraoperatively and to adjust dose delivery based on the simulation output, without compromising accuracy. The workflow provided a satisfactory model of the treatment head and the imaging system, enabling proper configuration of the treatment planning system and providing good accuracy in the dosage simulation.

Estudio De Las Propiedades Puzolánicas De Las Rocas Volcánicas Del Monte Basilé, República De Guinea Ecuatorial, Y Sus Aplicaciones Como Puzolanas Para La Sustitución Del Cemento En Las Mezclas De Morteros.

Las rocas efusivas formadas por la actividad volcánica del volcán Basilé constituyen la principal fuente de áridos naturales de la Isla de Bioko, en Guinea Ecuatorial. El auge alcanzado por la construcción en la ciudad de Malabo, Malabo II y Malabo III, son un testimonio concluyente del volumen de áridos empleado para erigir los nuevos polígonos, urbanizaciones, infraestructura portuaria, carreteras, presas, alcantarillados y paseos marítimos. Gran parte de los materiales de construcción, fundamentalmente el cemento, procede de las importaciones, mientras que las rocas y minerales industriales autóctonos se conocen poco, opacados por el papel hegemónico del petróleo y el gas natural. El desconocimiento casi absoluto de las propiedades químicas, petrográficas y mecánicas de estas rocas, y la existencia de un sistema normativo pobre, ha provocado su uso indiscriminado y una controvertida calidad en la elaboración de los productos finales. Asimismo, la falta de experiencia en ingeniería y geotecnia para el desarrollo de minas y canteras, y la intermitencia de una ley de minas poco consolidada, ha favorecido la germinación indiscriminada de un gran número de excavaciones, propensas a continuos derrumbes y a la producción de impactos medioambientales irreversibles. La presente contribución científica se ha marcado como objetivo mostrar los resultados obtenidos del análisis y caracterización de estas formaciones volcánicas, así como su posible aprovechamiento industrial mediante el aporte de datos sobre sus propiedades puzolánicas e idoneidad en la elaboración de morteros. Los datos indican que estas rocas eruptivas, fundamentalmente escorias y flujos de lavas de composición basáltica, son capaces de sustituir al cemento pórtland normal hasta en un 25%, favoreciendo el incremento de las resistencias mecánicas normales con valores que sobrepasan los 37 Mpa a 28 días. El análisis de las muestras mediante el método de la puzolanicidad a 7 días dejó establecido el carácter puzolánico de estas rocas, que fue corroborado por la interpretación de citados ensayos mecánicos. El estudio de la composición química detectó contenidos en SiO2 (44,40%), Al2O3 (15,58%), CaO (9,32%), MgO (4,25%) y Fe2O3 (13,63%), y cantidades despreciables de azufre, sulfatos y materia orgánica. Los análisis de difracción de rayos x revelaron la presencia mayoritaria de una fase compuesta por feldespato, y una fase subordinada constituida por cuarzo, hematita y dolomita. El estudio mediante microscopía electrónica de barrido permitió comprobar la ausencia casi total de las especies vítreas. Los resultados que se presentan en este trabajo, podrían devenir en información útil para el posible emplazamiento de una fábrica de cemento puzolánico en la Isla de Bioko; la actual fábrica Abayak, única en Guinea Ecuatorial, y que se encuentra situada en la parte continental del país, no aporta suficiente producción para las demandas cada vez mayores de la construcción.

Monte Carlo simulation of circular grain growth

Monte Carlo simulations have been carried out to study the effect of temperature on the growth kinetics of a circular grain. This work demonstrates the importance of roughening fluctuations on the growth dynamics. Since the effect of thermal fluctuations is stronger in d =2 than in d =3, as predicted by d =3 theories of domain kinetics, the circular domain shrinks linearly with time as A (t)=A(0)-αt, where A (0) and A(t) are the initial and instantaneous areas, respectively. However, in contrast to d =3, the slope α is strongly temperature dependent for T≥0.6TC. An analytical theory which considers the thermal fluctuations agrees with the T dependence of the Monte Carlo data in this regime, and this model show that these fluctuations are responsible for the strong temperature dependence of the growth rate for d =2. Our results are particularly relevant to the problem of domain growth in surface science

Solid catadioptric telephoto lens design with SMS method

Two new optical structures are designed using the Simultaneous Multiple Surfaces (SMS) method, comprised of 2 reflecting surfaces and 2 refracting surfaces, 800mm focal length, f/8 (aperture diameter 100 mm) and 1.180 diagonal field of view in the SWIR band. The lens surfaces are rotational symmetric and calculated to have good control of non-paraxial rays. We have achieved designs with excellent performance, and with total system length of less than 60 mm.

Advances in the SMS design method for imaging optics

In this work, two SMS algorithms are presented for an objective design with different selected ray-bundles: three meridian ray-bundles (3M) and one meridian and two skew ray-bundles (1M-2S), the latter from pin hole point of view, provides a better sampling of the phase space. Results obtained with different algorithms will be compared.

Ultra-compact SWIR telephoto lens design with SMS method

In this work, we propose two new optical structures, using the Simultaneous Multiple Surfaces (SMS) method, comprised of 2 reflecting surfaces and 2 refracting surfaces, 800mm focal length, f/8 (aperture diameter 100 mm) and 1.18 0 diagonal field of view in the SWIR band. The lens surfaces are rotational symmetric and calculated to have good control of non-paraxial rays. We have achieved designs with excellent performance, and with total system length of less than 60 mm.

Progress in the SMS design method for imaging optics

In this work, two SMS algorithms are presented for an objective design with different selected ray-bundles: three meridian ray-bundles (3M) and one meridian and two skew ray-bundles (1M-2S), the latter from pin hole point of view, provides a better sampling of the phase space. Results obtained with different algorithms will be compared

Monte Carlo simulation of recrystallization

A Monte Carlo computer simulation technique, in which a continuum system is modeled employing a discrete lattice, has been applied to the problem of recrystallization. Primary recrystallization is modeled under conditions where the degree of stored energy is varied and nucleation occurs homogeneously (without regard for position in the microstructure). The nucleation rate is chosen as site saturated. Temporal evolution of the simulated microstructures is analyzed to provide the time dependence of the recrystallized volume fraction and grain sizes. The recrystallized volume fraction shows sigmoidal variations with time. The data are approximately fit by the Johnson-Mehl-Avrami equation with the expected exponents, however significant deviations are observed for both small and large recrystallized volume fractions. Under constant rate nucleation conditions, the propensity for irregular grain shapes is decreased and the density of two sided grains increases.

Overview of the SMS design method applied to imaging optics

The Simultaneous Multiple Surfaces (SMS) was developed as a design method in Nonimaging Optics during the 90s. Later, the method was extended for designing Imaging Optics. We present an overview of the method applied to imaging optics in planar (2D) geometry and compare the results with more classical designs based on achieving aplanatism of different orders. These classical designs are also viewed as particular cases of SMS designs. Systems with up to 4 aspheric surfaces are shown. The SMS design strategy is shown to perform always better than the classical design (in terms of image quality). Moreover, the SMS method is a direct method, i.e., it is not based in multi-parametric optimization techniques. This gives the SMS method an additional interest since it can be used for exploring solutions where the multiparameter techniques can get lost because of the multiple local minima

An application of the SMS method for imaging designs.

The Simultaneous Multiple Surface (SMS) method in planar geometry (2D) is applied to imaging designs, generating lenses that compare well with aplanatic designs. When the merit function utilizes image quality over the entire field (not just paraxial), the SMS strategy is superior. In fact, the traditional aplanatic approach is actually a particular case of the SMS strategy

LED backlight designs with the flow-line method

An LED backlight has been designed using the flow-line design method. This method allows a very efficient control of the light extraction. The light is confined inside the guide by total internal reflection, being extracted only by specially calculated surfaces: the ejectors. Backlight designs presented here have a total optical efficiency of up to 80% (including Fresnel and absorption losses) with an FWHM below 30 degrees. The experimental results of the first prototype are shown.

Analytic design method for optimal imaging: coupling three ray sets using two free-form lens profiles

In this work, a new two-dimensional optics design method is proposed that enables the coupling of three ray sets with two lens surfaces. The method is especially important for optical systems designed for wide field of view and with clearly separated optical surfaces. Fermat’s principle is used to deduce a set of functional differential equations fully describing the entire optical system. The presented general analytic solution makes it possible to calculate the lens profiles. Ray tracing results for calculated 15th order Taylor polynomials describing the lens profiles demonstrate excellent imaging performance and the versatility of this new analytic design method.

A constitutive model for the in-plane mechanical behavior of nonwoven fabrics

A constitutive model is presented for the in-plane mechanical behavior of nonwoven fabrics. The model is developed within the context of the finite element method and provides the constitutive response for a mesodomain of the fabric corresponding to the area associated to a finite element. The model is built upon the ensemble of three blocks, namely fabric, fibers and damage. The continuum tensorial formulation of the fabric response rigorously takes into account the effect of fiber rotation for large strains and includes the nonlinear fiber behavior. In addition, the various damage mechanisms experimentally observed (bond and fiber fracture, interfiber friction and fiber pull-out) are included in a phenomenological way and the random nature of these materials is also taken into account by means of a Monte Carlo lottery to determine the damage thresholds. The model results are validated with recent experimental results on the tensile response of smooth and notched specimens of a polypropylene nonwoven fabric.