Participatory modeling for sustainable development in water and agrarian systems: potential and limits of stakeholder involvement

Public participation is increasingly advocated as a necessary feature of natural resources management. The EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) is such an example, as it prescribes participatory processes as necessary features in basin management plans (EC 2000). The rationale behind this mandate is that involving interest groups ideally yields higher-quality decisions, which are arguably more likely to meet public acceptance (Pahl-Wostl, 2006). Furthermore, failing to involve stakeholders in policy-making might hamper the implementation of management initiatives, as controversial decisions can lead pressure lobbies to generate public opposition (Giordano et al. 2005, Mouratiadou and Moran 2007).

Sensitivity of a distributed temperature-radiation index melt model based on AWS observations and surface energy balance fluxes, Hurd Peninsula glaciers, Livingston Island, Antarctica

We use an automatic weather station and surface mass balance dataset spanning four melt seasons collected on Hurd Peninsula Glaciers, South Shetland Islands, to investigate the point surface energy balance, to determine the absolute and relative contribution of the various energy fluxes acting on the glacier surface and to estimate the sensitivity of melt to ambient temperature changes. Long-wave incoming radiation is the main energy source for melt, while short-wave radiation is the most important flux controlling the variation of both seasonal and daily mean surface energy balance. Short-wave and long-wave radiation fluxes do, in general, balance each other, resulting in a high correspondence between daily mean net radiation flux and available melt energy flux. We calibrate a distributed melt model driven by air temperature and an expression for the incoming short-wave radiation. The model is calibrated with the data from one of the melt seasons and validated with the data of the three remaining seasons. The model results deviate at most 140 mm w.e. from the corresponding observations using the glaciological method. The model is very sensitive to changes in ambient temperature: a 0.5 ◦ C increase results in 56 % higher melt rates.

Generating multimedia presentations that summarize the behavior of dynamic systems using a model-based approach

This article describes a knowledge-based method for generating multimedia descriptions that summarize the behavior of dynamic systems. We designed this method for users who monitor the behavior of a dynamic system with the help of sensor networks and make decisions according to prefixed management goals. Our method generates presentations using different modes such as text in natural language, 2D graphics and 3D animations. The method uses a qualitative representation of the dynamic system based on hierarchies of components and causal influences. The method includes an abstraction generator that uses the system representation to find and aggregate relevant data at an appropriate level of abstraction. In addition, the method includes a hierarchical planner to generate a presentation using a model with dis- course patterns. Our method provides an efficient and flexible solution to generate concise and adapted multimedia presentations that summarize thousands of time series. It is general to be adapted to differ- ent dynamic systems with acceptable knowledge acquisition effort by reusing and adapting intuitive rep- resentations. We validated our method and evaluated its practical utility by developing several models for an application that worked in continuous real time operation for more than 1 year, summarizing sen- sor data of a national hydrologic information system in Spain.

Dimensional synthesis of a spherical parallel manipulator based on the evaluation of global performance indexes

In this work, the dimensional synthesis of a spherical Parallel Manipulator (PM) with a -1S kinematic chain is presented. The goal of the synthesis is to find a set of parameters that defines the PM with the best performance in terms of workspace capabilities, dexterity and isotropy. The PM is parametrized in terms of a reference element, and a non-directed search of these parameters is carried out. First, the inverse kinematics and instantaneous kinematics of the mechanism are presented. The latter is found using the screw theory formulation. An algorithm that explores a bounded set of parameters and determines the corresponding value of global indexes is presented. The concepts of a novel global performance index and a compound index are introduced. Simulation results are shown and discussed. The best PMs found in terms of each performance index evaluated are locally analyzed in terms of its workspace and local dexterity. The relationship between the performance of the PM and its parameters is discussed, and a prototype with the best performance in terms of the compound index is presented and analyzed.

HF spectrum activity prediction model based on HMM for cognitive radio applications

Although most of the research on Cognitive Radio is focused on communication bands above the HF upper limit (30 MHz), Cognitive Radio principles can also be applied to HF communications to make use of the extremely scarce spectrum more efficiently. In this work we consider legacy users as primary users since these users transmit without resorting to any smart procedure, and our stations using the HFDVL (HF Data+Voice Link) architecture as secondary users. Our goal is to enhance an efficient use of the HF band by detecting the presence of uncoordinated primary users and avoiding collisions with them while transmitting in different HF channels using our broad-band HF transceiver. A model of the primary user activity dynamics in the HF band is developed in this work to make short-term predictions of the sojourn time of a primary user in the band and avoid collisions. It is based on Hidden Markov Models (HMM) which are a powerful tool for modelling stochastic random processes and are trained with real measurements of the 14 MHz band. By using the proposed HMM based model, the prediction model achieves an average 10.3% prediction error rate with one minute-long channel knowledge but it can be reduced when this knowledge is extended: with the previous 8 min knowledge, an average 5.8% prediction error rate is achieved. These results suggest that the resulting activity model for the HF band could actually be used to predict primary users activity and included in a future HF cognitive radio based station.

Validation of a CFD wake model based on the actuator disk technique and the thrust coefficient. Preliminary results

A simplified CFD wake model based on the actuator-disk concept is used to simulate the wind turbine, represented by an actuator disk upon which a distribution of forces, defined as axial momentum sources, are applied on the incoming flow. The rotor is supposed to be uniformly loaded, with the exerted forces as a function of the incident wind speed, the thrust coefficient and the rotor diameter. The model is validated through experimental measurements downwind of a wind turbine in terms of wind speed deficit. Validation on turbulence intensity will also be made in the near future.

Multi-resolution model-based traffic sign detection and tracking

In this paper we propose an innovative approach to tackle the problem of traffic sign detection using a computer vision algorithm and taking into account real-time operation constraints, trying to establish intelligent strategies to simplify as much as possible the algorithm complexity and to speed up the process. Firstly, a set of candidates is generated according to a color segmentation stage, followed by a region analysis strategy, where spatial characteristic of previously detected objects are taken into account. Finally, temporal coherence is introduced by means of a tracking scheme, performed using a Kalman filter for each potential candidate. Taking into consideration time constraints, efficiency is achieved two-fold: on the one side, a multi-resolution strategy is adopted for segmentation, where global operation will be applied only to low-resolution images, increasing the resolution to the maximum only when a potential road sign is being tracked. On the other side, we take advantage of the expected spacing between traffic signs. Namely, the tracking of objects of interest allows to generate inhibition areas, which are those ones where no new traffic signs are expected to appear due to the existence of a TS in the neighborhood. The proposed solution has been tested with real sequences in both urban areas and highways, and proved to achieve higher computational efficiency, especially as a result of the multi-resolution approach.

Model Based On-Line Energy Prediction System for Semi-Autonomous Mobile Robots

Maximizing energy autonomy is a consistent challenge when deploying mobile robots in ionizing radiation or other hazardous environments. Having a reliable robot system is essential for successful execution of missions and to avoid manual recovery of the robots in environments that are harmful to human beings. For deployment of robots missions at short notice, the ability to know beforehand the energy required for performing the task is essential. This paper presents a on-line method for predicting energy requirements based on the pre-determined power models for a mobile robot. A small mobile robot, Khepera III is used for the experimental study and the results are promising with high prediction accuracy. The applications of the energy prediction models in energy optimization and simulations are also discussed along with examples of significant energy savings.

A model for the economic evaluation of master city plans: a pilot study of Västerås, Sweden

The paper introduces the framework, problems addressed, objective function, types of variables and so on for a model designed to facilitate the economic evaluation of master city plans. The model presented here has been used in a pilot study of the city of Vasteras, Sweden. It consists of three main parts, data, results and method. Some conclusions are drawn.

Flood frequency analysis by a bivariate model based on copulas

La adecuada estimación de avenidas de diseño asociadas a altos periodos de retorno es necesaria para el diseño y gestión de estructuras hidráulicas como presas. En la práctica, la estimación de estos cuantiles se realiza normalmente a través de análisis de frecuencia univariados, basados en su mayoría en el estudio de caudales punta. Sin embargo, la naturaleza de las avenidas es multivariada, siendo esencial tener en cuenta características representativas de las avenidas, tales como caudal punta, volumen y duración del hidrograma, con el fin de llevar a cabo un análisis apropiado; especialmente cuando el caudal de entrada se transforma en un caudal de salida diferente durante el proceso de laminación en un embalse o llanura de inundación. Los análisis de frecuencia de avenidas multivariados han sido tradicionalmente llevados a cabo mediante el uso de distribuciones bivariadas estándar con el fin de modelar variables correlacionadas. Sin embargo, su uso conlleva limitaciones como la necesidad de usar el mismo tipo de distribuciones marginales para todas las variables y la existencia de una relación de dependencia lineal entre ellas. Recientemente, el uso de cópulas se ha extendido en hidrología debido a sus beneficios en relación al contexto multivariado, permitiendo superar los inconvenientes de las técnicas tradicionales. Una copula es una función que representa la estructura de dependencia de las variables de estudio, y permite obtener la distribución de frecuencia multivariada de dichas variables mediante sus distribuciones marginales, sin importar el tipo de distribución marginal utilizada. La estimación de periodos de retorno multivariados, y por lo tanto, de cuantiles multivariados, también se facilita debido a la manera en la que las cópulas están formuladas. La presente tesis doctoral busca proporcionar metodologías que mejoren las técnicas tradicionales usadas por profesionales para estimar cuantiles de avenida más adecuados para el diseño y la gestión de presas, así como para la evaluación del riesgo de avenida, mediante análisis de frecuencia de avenidas bivariados basados en cópulas. Las variables consideradas para ello son el caudal punta y el volumen del hidrograma. Con el objetivo de llevar a cabo un estudio completo, la presente investigación abarca: (i) el análisis de frecuencia de avenidas local bivariado centrado en examinar y comparar los periodos de retorno teóricos basados en la probabilidad natural de ocurrencia de una avenida, con el periodo de retorno asociado al riesgo de sobrevertido de la presa bajo análisis, con el fin de proporcionar cuantiles en una estación de aforo determinada; (ii) la extensión del enfoque local al regional, proporcionando un procedimiento completo para llevar a cabo un análisis de frecuencia de avenidas regional bivariado para proporcionar cuantiles en estaciones sin aforar o para mejorar la estimación de dichos cuantiles en estaciones aforadas; (iii) el uso de cópulas para investigar tendencias bivariadas en avenidas debido al aumento de los niveles de urbanización en una cuenca; y (iv) la extensión de series de avenida observadas mediante la combinación de los beneficios de un modelo basado en cópulas y de un modelo hidrometeorológico. Accurate design flood estimates associated with high return periods are necessary to design and manage hydraulic structures such as dams. In practice, the estimate of such quantiles is usually done via univariate flood frequency analyses, mostly based on the study of peak flows. Nevertheless, the nature of floods is multivariate, being essential to consider representative flood characteristics, such as flood peak, hydrograph volume and hydrograph duration to carry out an appropriate analysis; especially when the inflow peak is transformed into a different outflow peak during the routing process in a reservoir or floodplain. Multivariate flood frequency analyses have been traditionally performed by using standard bivariate distributions to model correlated variables, yet they entail some shortcomings such as the need of using the same kind of marginal distribution for all variables and the assumption of a linear dependence relation between them. Recently, the use of copulas has been extended in hydrology because of their benefits regarding dealing with the multivariate context, as they overcome the drawbacks of the traditional approach. A copula is a function that represents the dependence structure of the studied variables, and allows obtaining the multivariate frequency distribution of them by using their marginal distributions, regardless of the kind of marginal distributions considered. The estimate of multivariate return periods, and therefore multivariate quantiles, is also facilitated by the way in which copulas are formulated. The present doctoral thesis seeks to provide methodologies that improve traditional techniques used by practitioners, in order to estimate more appropriate flood quantiles for dam design, dam management and flood risk assessment, through bivariate flood frequency analyses based on the copula approach. The flood variables considered for that goal are peak flow and hydrograph volume. In order to accomplish a complete study, the present research addresses: (i) a bivariate local flood frequency analysis focused on examining and comparing theoretical return periods based on the natural probability of occurrence of a flood, with the return period associated with the risk of dam overtopping, to estimate quantiles at a given gauged site; (ii) the extension of the local to the regional approach, supplying a complete procedure for performing a bivariate regional flood frequency analysis to either estimate quantiles at ungauged sites or improve at-site estimates at gauged sites; (iii) the use of copulas to investigate bivariate flood trends due to increasing urbanisation levels in a catchment; and (iv) the extension of observed flood series by combining the benefits of a copula-based model and a hydro-meteorological model.

Classifying GABAergic interneurons with semi-supervised projected model-based clustering

Objectives: A recently introduced pragmatic scheme promises to be a useful catalog of interneuron names.We sought to automatically classify digitally reconstructed interneuronal morphologies according tothis scheme. Simultaneously, we sought to discover possible subtypes of these types that might emergeduring automatic classification (clustering). We also investigated which morphometric properties weremost relevant for this classification.Materials and methods: A set of 118 digitally reconstructed interneuronal morphologies classified into thecommon basket (CB), horse-tail (HT), large basket (LB), and Martinotti (MA) interneuron types by 42 of theworld?s leading neuroscientists, quantified by five simple morphometric properties of the axon and fourof the dendrites. We labeled each neuron with the type most commonly assigned to it by the experts. Wethen removed this class information for each type separately, and applied semi-supervised clustering tothose cells (keeping the others? cluster membership fixed), to assess separation from other types and lookfor the formation of new groups (subtypes). We performed this same experiment unlabeling the cells oftwo types at a time, and of half the cells of a single type at a time. The clustering model is a finite mixtureof Gaussians which we adapted for the estimation of local (per-cluster) feature relevance. We performedthe described experiments on three different subsets of the data, formed according to how many expertsagreed on type membership: at least 18 experts (the full data set), at least 21 (73 neurons), and at least26 (47 neurons).Results: Interneurons with more reliable type labels were classified more accurately. We classified HTcells with 100% accuracy, MA cells with 73% accuracy, and CB and LB cells with 56% and 58% accuracy,respectively. We identified three subtypes of the MA type, one subtype of CB and LB types each, andno subtypes of HT (it was a single, homogeneous type). We got maximum (adapted) Silhouette widthand ARI values of 1, 0.83, 0.79, and 0.42, when unlabeling the HT, CB, LB, and MA types, respectively,confirming the quality of the formed cluster solutions. The subtypes identified when unlabeling a singletype also emerged when unlabeling two types at a time, confirming their validity. Axonal morphometricproperties were more relevant that dendritic ones, with the axonal polar histogram length in the [pi, 2pi) angle interval being particularly useful.Conclusions: The applied semi-supervised clustering method can accurately discriminate among CB, HT, LB, and MA interneuron types while discovering potential subtypes, and is therefore useful for neuronal classification. The discovery of potential subtypes suggests that some of these types are more heteroge-neous that previously thought. Finally, axonal variables seem to be more relevant than dendritic ones fordistinguishing among the CB, HT, LB, and MA interneuron types.

Design, development and evaluation of a portable recording system to capture dynamic presentations using the teacher's tablet PC

Computers and multimedia equipment have improved a lot in the last years. They have reduced their cost and size while at the same time increased their capabilities. These improvements allowed us to design and implement a portable recording system that also integrates the teacher´s tablet PC to capture what he/she writes on the slides and all that happens in it. This paper explains this system in detail and the validation of the recordings that we did after using it to record all the lectures the “Communications Software” course in our university. The results show that pupils used the recordings for different purposes and consider them useful for a variety of things, especially after missing a lecture.

Cooperative Learning Model based on Multi-Agent Architecture for Embedded Intelligent Systems

Cooperative systems are suitable for many types of applications and nowadays these system are vastly used to improve a previously defined system or to coordinate multiple devices working together. This paper provides an alternative to improve the reliability of a previous intelligent identification system. The proposed approach implements a cooperative model based on multi-agent architecture. This new system is composed of several radar-based systems which identify a detected object and transmit its own partial result by implementing several agents and by using a wireless network to transfer data. The proposed topology is a centralized architecture where the coordinator device is in charge of providing the final identification result depending on the group behavior. In order to find the final outcome, three different mechanisms are introduced. The simplest one is based on majority voting whereas the others use two different weighting voting procedures, both providing the system with learning capabilities. Using an appropriate network configuration, the success rate can be improved from the initial 80% up to more than 90%.

PRISMA: Model-driven development of aspect-oriented software architectures

This summary presents a methodology for supporting the development of AOSAs following the MDD paradigm. This new methodology is called PRISMA and allows the code generation from models which specify functional and non-functional requirements.

A regularised continuum damage model based on the mesoscopic scale for soft tissue

Material properties of soft fibrous tissues are highly conditioned by the hierarchical structure of this kind of composites. Collagen based tissues present, at decreasing length scales, a complex framework of fibres, fibrils, tropocollagen molecules and amino-acids. Understanding the mechanical behaviour at nano-scale level is critical to accurately incorporate this structural information in phenomenological damage models. In this work we derive a relationship between the mechanical and geometrical properties of the fibril constituents and the soft tissue material parameters at macroscopic scale. A Hodge–Petruska two-dimensional model has been used to describe the fibrils as staggered arrays of tropocollagen molecules. After a mechanical characterisation of each of the fibril components, two fibril failures modes have been defined related with two planes of weakness. A phenomenological continuous damage model with regularised softening was presented along with meso-structurally based definitions for its material parameters. Finally, numerical analysis at fibril, fibre and tissue levels are presented to show the capabilities of the model