A Fuzzy approach based on dynamic programming and metaheuristics for selecting safeguards for risk management for information systems

In this paper we focus on the selection of safeguards in a fuzzy risk analysis and management methodology for information systems (IS). Assets are connected by dependency relationships, and a failure of one asset may affect other assets. After computing impact and risk indicators associated with previously identified threats, we identify and apply safeguards to reduce risks in the IS by minimizing the transmission probabilities of failures throughout the asset network. However, as safeguards have associated costs, the aim is to select the safeguards that minimize costs while keeping the risk within acceptable levels. To do this, we propose a dynamic programming-based method that incorporates simulated annealing to tackle optimizations problems.

A management model for closed-loop supply chains of reusable articles

This PhD dissertation is framed in the emergent fields of Reverse Logistics and ClosedLoop Supply Chain (CLSC) management. This subarea of supply chain management has gained researchers and practitioners' attention over the last 15 years to become a fully recognized subdiscipline of the Operations Management field. More specifically, among all the activities that are included within the CLSC area, the focus of this dissertation is centered in direct reuse aspects. The main contribution of this dissertation to current knowledge is twofold. First, a framework for the so-called reuse CLSC is developed. This conceptual model is grounded in a set of six case studies conducted by the author in real industrial settings. The model has also been contrasted with existing literature and with academic and professional experts on the topic as well. The framework encompasses four building blocks. In the first block, a typology for reusable articles is put forward, distinguishing between Returnable Transport Items (RTI), Reusable Packaging Materials (RPM), and Reusable Products (RP). In the second block, the common characteristics that render reuse CLSC difficult to manage from a logistical standpoint are identified, namely: fleet shrinkage, significant investment and limited visibility. In the third block, the main problems arising in the management of reuse CLSC are analyzed, such as: (1) define fleet size dimension, (2) control cycle time and promote articles rotation, (3) control return rate and prevent shrinkage, (4) define purchase policies for new articles, (5) plan and control reconditioning activities, and (6) balance inventory between depots. Finally, in the fourth block some solutions to those issues are developed. Firstly, problems (2) and (3) are addressed through the comparative analysis of alternative strategies for controlling cycle time and return rate. Secondly, a methodology for calculating the required fleet size is elaborated (problem (1)). This methodology is valid for different configurations of the physical flows in the reuse CLSC. Likewise, some directions are pointed out for further development of a similar method for defining purchase policies for new articles (problem (4)). The second main contribution of this dissertation is embedded in the solutions part (block 4) of the conceptual framework and comprises a two-level decision problem integrating two mixed integer linear programming (MILP) models that have been formulated and solved to optimality using AIMMS as modeling language, CPLEX as solver and Excel spreadsheet for data introduction and output presentation. The results obtained are analyzed in order to measure in a client-supplier system the economic impact of two alternative control strategies (recovery policies) in the context of reuse. In addition, the models support decision-making regarding the selection of the appropriate recovery policy against the characteristics of demand pattern and the structure of the relevant costs in the system. The triangulation of methods used in this thesis has enabled to address the same research topic with different approaches and thus, the robustness of the results obtained is strengthened.

Optimization methods for the operating room management under uncertainty: stochastic programming vs. decomposition approach

The operating theatres are the engine of the hospitals; proper management of the operating rooms and its staff represents a great challenge for managers and its results impact directly in the budget of the hospital. This work presents a MILP model for the efficient schedule of multiple surgeries in Operating Rooms (ORs) during a working day. This model considers multiple surgeons and ORs and different types of surgeries. Stochastic strategies are also implemented for taking into account the uncertain in surgery durations (pre-incision, incision, post-incision times). In addition, a heuristic-based methods and a MILP decomposition approach is proposed for solving large-scale ORs scheduling problems in computational efficient way. All these computer-aided strategies has been implemented in AIMMS, as an advanced modeling and optimization software, developing a user friendly solution tool for the operating room management under uncertainty.

Hybrid wind-diesel power plant valuation and optimization using real option theory and dynamic programming

El sistema de energía eólica-diesel híbrido tiene un gran potencial en la prestación de suministro de energía a comunidades remotas. En comparación con los sistemas tradicionales de diesel, las plantas de energía híbridas ofrecen grandes ventajas tales como el suministro de capacidad de energía extra para "microgrids", reducción de los contaminantes y emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero, y la cobertura del riesgo de aumento inesperado del precio del combustible. El principal objetivo de la presente tesis es proporcionar nuevos conocimientos para la evaluación y optimización de los sistemas de energía híbrido eólico-diesel considerando las incertidumbres. Dado que la energía eólica es una variable estocástica, ésta no puede ser controlada ni predecirse con exactitud. La naturaleza incierta del viento como fuente de energía produce serios problemas tanto para la operación como para la evaluación del valor del sistema de energía eólica-diesel híbrido. Por un lado, la regulación de la potencia inyectada desde las turbinas de viento es una difícil tarea cuando opera el sistema híbrido. Por otro lado, el bene.cio económico de un sistema eólico-diesel híbrido se logra directamente a través de la energía entregada a la red de alimentación de la energía eólica. Consecuentemente, la incertidumbre de los recursos eólicos incrementa la dificultad de estimar los beneficios globales en la etapa de planificación. La principal preocupación del modelo tradicional determinista es no tener en cuenta la incertidumbre futura a la hora de tomar la decisión de operación. Con lo cual, no se prevé las acciones operativas flexibles en respuesta a los escenarios futuros. El análisis del rendimiento y simulación por ordenador en el Proyecto Eólico San Cristóbal demuestra que la incertidumbre sobre la energía eólica, las estrategias de control, almacenamiento de energía, y la curva de potencia de aerogeneradores tienen un impacto significativo sobre el rendimiento del sistema. En la presente tesis, se analiza la relación entre la teoría de valoración de opciones y el proceso de toma de decisiones. La opción real se desarrolla con un modelo y se presenta a través de ejemplos prácticos para evaluar el valor de los sistemas de energía eólica-diesel híbridos. Los resultados muestran que las opciones operacionales pueden aportar un valor adicional para el sistema de energía híbrida, cuando esta flexibilidad operativa se utiliza correctamente. Este marco se puede aplicar en la optimización de la operación a corto plazo teniendo en cuenta la naturaleza dependiente de la trayectoria de la política óptima de despacho, dadas las plausibles futuras realizaciones de la producción de energía eólica. En comparación con los métodos de valoración y optimización existentes, el resultado del caso de estudio numérico muestra que la política de operación resultante del modelo de optimización propuesto presenta una notable actuación en la reducción del con- sumo total de combustible del sistema eólico-diesel. Con el .n de tomar decisiones óptimas, los operadores de plantas de energía y los gestores de éstas no deben centrarse sólo en el resultado directo de cada acción operativa, tampoco deberían tomar decisiones deterministas. La forma correcta es gestionar dinámicamente el sistema de energía teniendo en cuenta el valor futuro condicionado en cada opción frente a la incertidumbre. ABSTRACT Hybrid wind-diesel power systems have a great potential in providing energy supply to remote communities. Compared with the traditional diesel systems, hybrid power plants are providing many advantages such as providing extra energy capacity to the micro-grid, reducing pollution and greenhouse-gas emissions, and hedging the risk of unexpected fuel price increases. This dissertation aims at providing novel insights for assessing and optimizing hybrid wind-diesel power systems considering the related uncertainties. Since wind power can neither be controlled nor accurately predicted, the energy harvested from a wind turbine may be considered a stochastic variable. This uncertain nature of wind energy source results in serious problems for both the operation and value assessment of the hybrid wind-diesel power system. On the one hand, regulating the uncertain power injected from wind turbines is a difficult task when operating the hybrid system. On the other hand, the economic profit of a hybrid wind-diesel system is achieved directly through the energy delivered to the power grid from the wind energy. Therefore, the uncertainty of wind resources has increased the difficulty in estimating the total benefits in the planning stage. The main concern of the traditional deterministic model is that it does not consider the future uncertainty when making the dispatch decision. Thus, it does not provide flexible operational actions in response to the uncertain future scenarios. Performance analysis and computer simulation on the San Cristobal Wind Project demonstrate that the wind power uncertainty, control strategies, energy storage, and the wind turbine power curve have a significant impact on the performance of the system. In this dissertation, the relationship between option pricing theory and decision making process is discussed. A real option model is developed and presented through practical examples for assessing the value of hybrid wind-diesel power systems. Results show that operational options can provide additional value to the hybrid power system when this operational flexibility is correctly utilized. This framework can be applied in optimizing short term dispatch decisions considering the path-dependent nature of the optimal dispatch policy, given the plausible future realizations of the wind power production. Comparing with the existing valuation and optimization methods, result from numerical example shows that the dispatch policy resulting from the proposed optimization model exhibits a remarkable performance in minimizing the total fuel consumption of the wind-diesel system. In order to make optimal decisions, power plant operators and managers should not just focus on the direct outcome of each operational action; neither should they make deterministic decisions. The correct way is to dynamically manage the power system by taking into consideration the conditional future value in each option in response to the uncertainty.