Selecting crop models for decision making in wheat insurance

In crop insurance, the accuracy with which the insurer quantifies the actual risk is highly dependent on the availability on actual yield data. Crop models might be valuable tools to generate data on expected yields for risk assessment when no historical records are available. However, selecting a crop model for a specific objective, location and implementation scale is a difficult task. A look inside the different crop and soil modules to understand how outputs are obtained might facilitate model choice. The objectives of this paper were (i) to assess the usefulness of crop models to be used within a crop insurance analysis and design and (ii) to select the most suitable crop model for drought risk assessment in semi-arid regions in Spain. For that purpose first, a pre-selection of crop models simulating wheat yield under rainfed growing conditions at the field scale was made, and second, four selected models (Aquacrop, CERES- Wheat, CropSyst and WOFOST) were compared in terms of modelling approaches, process descriptions and model outputs. Outputs of the four models for the simulation of winter wheat growth are comparable when water is not limiting, but differences are larger when simulating yields under rainfed conditions. These differences in rainfed yields are mainly related to the dissimilar simulated soil water availability and the assumed linkages with dry matter formation. We concluded that for the simulation of winter wheat growth at field scale in such semi-arid conditions, CERES-Wheat and CropSyst are preferred. WOFOST is a satisfactory compromise between data availability and complexity when detail data on soil is limited. Aquacrop integrates physiological processes in some representative parameters, thus diminishing the number of input parameters, what is seen as an advantage when observed data is scarce. However, the high sensitivity of this model to low water availability limits its use in the region considered. Contrary to the use of ensembles of crop models, we endorse that efforts be concentrated on selecting or rebuilding a model that includes approaches that better describe the agronomic conditions of the regions in which they will be applied. The use of such complex methodologies as crop models is associated with numerous sources of uncertainty, although these models are the best tools available to get insight in these complex agronomic systems.

A study of the mechanical behaviour of the human aortic artery by means of non-linear finite element models

En la presente tesis desarrollamos una estrategia para la simulación numérica del comportamiento mecánico de la aorta humana usando modelos de elementos finitos no lineales. Prestamos especial atención a tres aspectos claves relacionados con la biomecánica de los tejidos blandos. Primero, el análisis del comportamiento anisótropo característico de los tejidos blandos debido a las familias de fibras de colágeno. Segundo, el análisis del ablandamiento presentado por los vasos sanguíneos cuando estos soportan cargas fuera del rango de funcionamiento fisiológico. Y finalmente, la inclusión de las tensiones residuales en las simulaciones en concordancia con el experimento de apertura de ángulo. El análisis del daño se aborda mediante dos aproximaciones diferentes. En la primera aproximación se presenta una formulación de daño local con regularización. Esta formulación tiene dos ingredientes principales. Por una parte, usa los principios de la teoría de la fisura difusa para garantizar la objetividad de los resultados con diferentes mallas. Por otra parte, usa el modelo bidimensional de Hodge-Petruska para describir el comportamiento mesoscópico de los fibriles. Partiendo de este modelo mesoscópico, las propiedades macroscópicas de las fibras de colágeno son obtenidas a través de un proceso de homogenización. En la segunda aproximación se presenta un modelo de daño no-local enriquecido con el gradiente de la variable de daño. El modelo se construye a partir del enriquecimiento de la función de energía con un término que contiene el gradiente material de la variable de daño no-local. La inclusión de este término asegura una regularización implícita de la implementación por elementos finitos, dando lugar a resultados de las simulaciones que no dependen de la malla. La aplicabilidad de este último modelo a problemas de biomecánica se estudia por medio de una simulación de un procedimiento quirúrgico típico conocido como angioplastia de balón. In the present thesis we develop a framework for the numerical simulation of the mechanical behaviour of the human aorta using non-linear finite element models. Special attention is paid to three key aspects related to the biomechanics of soft tissues. First, the modelling of the characteristic anisotropic behaviour of the softue due to the collagen fibre families. Secondly, the modelling of damage-related softening that blood vessels exhibit when subjected to loads beyond their physiological range. And finally, the inclusion of the residual stresses in the simulations in accordance with the opening-angle experiment The modelling of damage is addressed with two major and different approaches. In the first approach a continuum local damage formulation with regularisation is presented. This formulation has two principal ingredients. On the one hand, it makes use of the principles of the smeared crack theory to avoid the mesh size dependence of the structural response in softening. On the other hand, it uses a Hodge-Petruska bidimensional model to describe the fibrils as staggered arrays of tropocollagen molecules, and from this mesoscopic model the macroscopic material properties of the collagen fibres are obtained using an homogenisation process. In the second approach a non-local gradient-enhanced damage formulation is introduced. The model is built around the enhancement of the free energy function by means of a term that contains the referential gradient of the non-local damage variable. The inclusion of this term ensures an implicit regularisation of the finite element implementation, yielding mesh-objective results of the simulations. The applicability of the later model to biomechanically-related problems is studied by means of the simulation of a typical surgical procedure, namely, the balloon angioplasty.

How small and medium enterprises can begin their implementation of ITIL?

Sequencing of Information Technology Infrastructure Library (ITIL) processes related to their order of implementation is one of the pending issues in the ITIL handbooks. Other frameworks and process models related to service management (e.g., COBIT, COSO and CMMI-SVC) are quite well described in the literature and their handbooks. However, the identifi cation of the fi rst process to be implemented has not been deeply analysed in the previous frameworks and models, and it is also a complex question to answer for organizations, especially Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs). Moreover, SMEs are the organizations that have the largest presence in the world economy; offi cial data of General Business Directory, show that their range of presence in different countries around the world is between 93% and 99%, and the average of employment contribution is around 60%. Consequently, the improvement of information technology service management is of vital importance to accomplish in this type of enterprises. This research has focused on two surveys that aim at helping SMEs to select the ITIL process by which starting the implementation of ITIL. In the fi rst survey, data were gathered through a questionnaire to SMEs registered in the region of Madrid. The second survey obtained data from experts and enterprises in countries as Spain, Ecuador, Chile, Luxembourg, Colombia, Norway, El Salvador, and Venezuela. Finally, the results of both surveys show that the tendency for starting an ITIL implementation in SMEs points to one of the processes included in the Service Operation.

Simulation of thermal performance of glazing in architecture using scale models = Simulación del comportamiento térmico de los acristalamientos en la arquitectura mediante modelos a escala

El propósito de esta tesis es estudiar la aproximación a los fenómenos de transporte térmico en edificación acristalada a través de sus réplicas a escala. La tarea central de esta tesis es, por lo tanto, la comparación del comportamiento térmico de modelos a escala con el correspondiente comportamiento térmico del prototipo a escala real. Los datos principales de comparación entre modelo y prototipo serán las temperaturas. En el primer capítulo del Estado del Arte de esta tesis se hará un recorrido histórico por los usos de los modelos a escala desde la antigüedad hasta nuestro días. Dentro de éste, en el Estado de la Técnica, se expondrán los beneficios que tiene su empleo y las dificultades que conllevan. A continuación, en el Estado de la Investigación de los modelos a escala, se analizarán artículos científicos y tesis. Precisamente, nos centraremos en aquellos modelos a escala que son funcionales. Los modelos a escala funcionales son modelos a escala que replican, además, una o algunas de las funciones de sus prototipos. Los modelos a escala pueden estar distorsionados o no. Los modelos a escala distorsionados son aquellos con cambios intencionados en las dimensiones o en las características constructivas para la obtención de una respuesta específica por ejemplo, replicar el comportamiento térmico. Los modelos a escala sin distorsión, o no distorsionados, son aquellos que mantienen, en la medida de lo posible, las proporciones dimensionales y características constructivas de sus prototipos de referencia. Estos modelos a escala funcionales y no distorsionados son especialmente útiles para los arquitectos ya que permiten a la vez ser empleados como elementos funcionales de análisis y como elementos de toma de decisiones en el diseño constructivo. A pesar de su versatilidad, en general, se observará que se han utilizado muy poco estos modelos a escala funcionales sin distorsión para el estudio del comportamiento térmico de la edificación. Posteriormente, se expondrán las teorías para el análisis de los datos térmicos recogidos de los modelos a escala y su aplicabilidad a los correspondientes prototipos a escala real. Se explicarán los experimentos llevados a cabo, tanto en laboratorio como a intemperie. Se han realizado experimentos con modelos sencillos cúbicos a diferentes escalas y sometidos a las mismas condiciones ambientales. De estos modelos sencillos hemos dado el salto a un modelo reducido de una edificación acristalada relativamente sencilla. Los experimentos consisten en ensayos simultáneos a intemperie del prototipo a escala real y su modelo reducido del Taller de Prototipos de la Escuela Técnica Superior de Arquitectura de Madrid (ETSAM). Para el análisis de los datos experimentales hemos aplicado las teorías conocidas, tanto comparaciones directas como el empleo del análisis dimensional. Finalmente, las simulaciones nos permiten comparaciones flexibles con los datos experimentales, por ese motivo, hemos utilizado tanto programas comerciales como un algoritmo de simulación desarrollado ad hoc para esta investigación. Finalmente, exponemos la discusión y las conclusiones de esta investigación. Abstract The purpose of this thesis is to study the approximation to phenomena of heat transfer in glazed buildings through their scale replicas. The central task of this thesis is, therefore, the comparison of the thermal performance of scale models without distortion with the corresponding thermal performance of their full-scale prototypes. Indoor air temperatures of the scale model and the corresponding prototype are the data to be compared. In the first chapter on the State of the Art, it will be shown a broad vision, consisting of a historic review of uses of scale models, from antiquity to our days. In the section State of the Technique, the benefits and difficulties associated with their implementation are presented. Additionally, in the section State of the Research, current scientific papers and theses on scale models are reviewed. Specifically, we focus on functional scale models. Functional scale models are scale models that replicate, additionally, one or some of the functions of their corresponding prototypes. Scale models can be distorted or not. Scale models with distortion are considered scale models with intentional changes, on one hand, in dimensions scaled unevenly and, on the other hand, in constructive characteristics or materials, in order to get a specific performance for instance, a specific thermal performance. Consequently, scale models without distortion, or undistorted scale models scaled evenly, are those replicating, to the extent possible, without distortion, the dimensional proportions and constructive configurations of their prototypes of reference. These undistorted and functional scale models are especially useful for architects because they can be used, simultaneously, as functional elements of analysis and as decision-making elements during the design. Although they are versatile, in general, it is remarkable that these types of models are used very little for the study of the thermal performance of buildings. Subsequently, the theories related to the analysis of the experimental thermal data collected from the scale models and their applicability to the corresponding full-scale prototypes, will be explained. Thereafter, the experiments in laboratory and at outdoor conditions are detailed. Firstly, experiments carried out with simple cube models at different scales are explained. The prototype larger in size and the corresponding undistorted scale model have been subjected to same environmental conditions in every experimental test. Secondly, a step forward is taken carrying out some simultaneous experimental tests of an undistorted scale model, replica of a relatively simple lightweight and glazed building construction. This experiment consists of monitoring the undistorted scale model of the prototype workshop located in the School of Architecture (ETSAM) of the Technical University of Madrid (UPM). For the analysis of experimental data, known related theories and resources are applied, such as, direct comparisons, statistical analyses, Dimensional Analysis and last, but not least important, simulations. Simulations allow us, specifically, flexible comparisons with experimental data. Here, apart the use of the simulation software EnergyPlus, a simulation algorithm is developed ad hoc for this research. Finally, the discussion and conclusions of this research are exposed.