Empirical analysis of traffic volume for the application of the options theory to highway concessions

*************************************************************************************** EL WCTR es un Congreso de reconocido prestigio internacional en el ámbito de la investigación del transporte que hasta el 2010 publicaba sus libros de abstracts con ISBN. Por ello consideramos que debería seguir teníendose en cuenta para los indicadores de calidad ******************************************************************************************* Investment projects in the field of transportation infrastructures have a high degree of uncertainty and require an important amount of resources. In highway concessions in particular, the calculation of the Net Present Value (NPV) of the project by means of the discount of cash flows, may lead to erroneous results when the project incorporates certain flexibility. In these cases, the theory of real options is an alternative tool for the valuation of concessions. When the variable that generates uncertainty (in our case, the traffic) follows a random walk (or Geometric Brownian Motion), we can calculate the value of the options embedded in the contract starting directly from the process followed by that variable. This procedure notably simplifies the calculation method. In order to test the hypothesis of the evolution of traffic as a Geometric Brownian Motion, we have used the available series of traffic in Spanish highways, and we have applied the Augmented Dickey-Fuller approach, which is the most widely used test for this kind of study. The main result of the analysis is that we cannot reject the hypothesis that traffic follows a Geometric Brownian Motion in the majority of both toll highways and free highways in Spain.

Using Electronic Documents for Knowledge Acquisition and Model Maintenance

Knowledge acquisition and model maintenance are key problems in knowledge engineering to improve the productivity in the development of intelligent systems. Although historically a number of technical solutions have been proposed in this area, the recent experience shows that there is still an important gap between the way end-users describe their expertise and the way intelligent systems represent knowledge. In this paper we propose an original way to cope with this problem based on electronic documents. We propose the concept of intelligent document processor as a tool that allows the end-user to read/write a document explaining how an intelligent system operates in such a way that, if the user changes the content of the document, the intelligent system will react to these changes. The paper presents the structure of such a document based on knowledge categories derived from the modern knowledge modeling methodologies together with a number of requirements to be understandable by end-users and problem solvers.

How lowering speed limits in an urban highway affects traffics performance and emissions: the case of Madrid M-30 ring-road

The city of Madrid keeps not meeting the GHG and air pollutant limits set by the European legislation. A broad range of strategies have being taken into account to reduce both types of emissions; however traffic management meas ures are usually consigned to the sidelines. In 2004, Madrid City Council launched a plan to re-design its inner ring-road supported by a socioeconomic study that evaluated the environmental and operational benefits of the project. For safety reasons the planned speed limit for the tunnel section was finally reduced from 90km/h to 70km/h. Using a Macroscopic Traffic Model and the European Air Pollutant and Emissions Inventory Guidebook (EMEP/EEA), this paper examines the environmental and traffic performance consequences of this decision. Results support the thesis that reduced speed limits leads to GHG and air pollution reductions in the area affected by the measure without substantially altering traffic performance. The implementation of the new speed limit policy brings about a 15% and 16% reduction in both CO2 and NOx emissions respectively. Emissions’ reduction during off-peak hours is larger than during peak hours.

Task-based telemanipulation for maintenance in large scientific facilities

This thesis presents a task-oriented approach to telemanipulation for maintenance in large scientific facilities, with specific focus on the particle accelerator facilities at European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN) in Geneva, Switzerland and GSI Helmholtz Centre for Heavy Ion Research (GSI) in Darmstadt, Germany. It examines how telemanipulation can be used in these facilities and reviews how this differs from the representation of telemanipulation tasks within the literature. It provides methods to assess and compare telemanipulation procedures as well a test suite to compare telemanipulators themselves from a dexterity perspective. It presents a formalisation of telemanipulation procedures into a hierarchical model which can be then used as a basis to aid maintenance engineers in assessing tasks for telemanipulation, and as the basis for future research. The model introduces a new concept of Elemental Actions as the building block of telemanipulation movements and incorporates the dependent factors for procedures at a higher level of abstraction. In order to gain insight into realistic tasks performed by telemanipulation systems within both industrial and research environments a survey of teleoperation experts is presented. Analysis of the responses is performed from which it is concluded that there is a need within the robotics community for physical benchmarking tests which are geared towards evaluating the dexterity of telemanipulators for comparison of their dexterous abilities. A three stage test suite is presented which is designed to allow maintenance engineers to assess different telemanipulators for their dexterity. This incorporates general characteristics of the system, a method to compare kinematic reachability of multiple telemanipulators and physical test setups to assess dexterity from a both a qualitative perspective and measurably by using performance metrics. Finally, experimental results are provided for the application of the proposed test suite onto two telemanipulation systems, one from a research setting and the other within CERN. It describes the procedure performed and discusses comparisons between the two systems, as well as providing input from the expert operator of the CERN system.

Reduced carbon and energy footprint in highway operations: the Highway Energy Assessment (HERA) methodology

Global demand for mobility is increasing and the environmental impact of transport has become an important issue in transportation network planning and decision-making, as well as in the operational management phase. Suitable methods are required to assess emissions and fuel consumption reduction strategies that seek to improve energy efficiency and furthering decarbonization. This study describes the development and application of an improved modeling framework – the HERA (Highway EneRgy Assessment) methodology – that enables to assess the energy and carbon footprint of different highways and traffic flow scenarios and their comparison. HERA incorporates an average speed consumption model adjusted with a correction factor which takes into account the road gradient. It provides a more comprehensive method for estimating the footprint of particular highway segments under specific traffic conditions. It includes the application of the methodology to the Spanish highway network to validate it. Finally, a case study shows the benefits from using this methodology and how to integrate the objective of carbon footprint reductions into highway design, operation and scenario comparison.

On the harmonic analysis of cup anemometer rotation speed: A principle to monitor performance and maintenance status of rotating meteorological sensors

The calibration results of one anemometer equipped with several rotors, varying their size, were analyzed. In each case, the 30-pulses pert turn output signal of the anemometer was studied using Fourier series decomposition and correlated with the anemometer factor (i.e., the anemometer transfer function). Also, a 3-cup analytical model was correlated to the data resulting from the wind tunnel measurements. Results indicate good correlation between the post-processed output signal and the working condition of the cup anemometer. This correlation was also reflected in the results from the proposed analytical model. With the present work the possibility of remotely checking cup anemometer status, indicating the presence of anomalies and, therefore, a decrease on the wind sensor reliability is revealed.

Characterisation of the operation & maintenance phase in PV rural electrification programmes

Con 1.300 millones de personas en el mundo sin acceso a la electricidad (la mayoría en entornos rurales de países empobrecidos), la energía solar fotovoltaica constituye una solución viable técnica y económicamente para electrificar las zonas más remotas del planeta donde las redes eléctricas convencionales no llegan. Casi todos los países en el mundo han desarrollado algún tipo de programa de electrificación fotovoltaica rural durante los últimos 40 años, principalmente los países más pobres, donde a través de diferentes modelos de financiación, se han instalado millones de sistemas solares domiciliarios (pequeños sistemas fotovoltaicos para uso doméstico). Durante este largo período, se han ido superando muchas barreras, como la mejora de la calidad de los sistemas fotovoltaicos, la reducción de costes, la optimización del diseño y del dimensionado de los sistemas, la disponibilidad financiera para implantar programas de electrificación rural, etc. Gracias a esto, la electrificación rural descentralizada ha experimentado recientemente un salto de escala caracterizada por la implantación de grandes programas con miles de sistemas solares domiciliarios e integrando largos períodos de mantenimiento. Muchos de estos grandes programas se están llevando a cabo con limitado éxito, ya que generalmente parten de supuestos e hipótesis poco contrastadas con la realidad, comprometiendo así un retorno económico que permita el desarrollo de esta actividad a largo plazo. En este escenario surge un nuevo reto: el de cómo garantizar la sostenibilidad de los grandes programas de electrificación rural fotovoltaica. Se argumenta que la principal causa de esta falta de rentabilidad es el imprevisto alto coste de la fase de operación y mantenimiento. Cuestiones clave tales como la estructura de costes de operación y mantenimiento o la fiabilidad de los componentes del sistema fotovoltaico no están bien caracterizados hoy en día. Esta situación limita la capacidad de diseñar estructuras de mantenimiento capaces de asegurar la sostenibilidad y la rentabilidad del servicio de operación y mantenimiento en estos programas. Esta tesis doctoral tiene como objetivo responder a estas cuestiones. Se ha realizado varios estudios sobre la base de un gran programa de electrificación rural fotovoltaica real llevado a cabo en Marruecos con más de 13.000 sistemas solares domiciliarios instalados. Sobre la base de este programa se ha hecho una evaluación en profundidad de la fiabilidad de los sistemas solares a partir de los datos de mantenimiento recogidos durante 5 años con más de 80.000 inputs. Los resultados han permitido establecer las funciones de fiabilidad de los equipos tal y como se comportan en condiciones reales de operación, las tasas de fallos y los tiempos medios hasta el fallo para los principales componentes del sistema, siendo este el primer caso de divulgación de resultados de este tipo en el campo de la electrificación rural fotovoltaica. Los dos principales componentes del sistema solar domiciliario, la batería y el módulo fotovoltaico, han sido analizados en campo a través de una muestra de 41 sistemas trabajando en condiciones reales pertenecientes al programa solar marroquí. Por un lado se ha estudiado la degradación de la capacidad de las baterías y por otro la degradación de potencia de los módulos fotovoltaicos. En el caso de las baterías, los resultados nos han permitido caracterizar la curva de degradación en capacidad llegando a obtener una propuesta de nueva definición del umbral de vida útil de las baterías en electrificación rural. También sobre la base del programa solar de Marruecos se ha llevado a cabo un estudio de caracterización de los costes reales de operación y mantenimiento a partir de la base de datos de contabilidad del programa registrados durante 5 años. Los resultados del estudio han permitido definir cuáles son costes que más incidencia tienen en el coste global. Se han obtenido los costes unitarios por sistema instalado y se han calculado los montantes de las cuotas de mantenimiento de los usuarios para garantizar la rentabilidad de la operación y mantenimiento. Finalmente, se propone un modelo de optimización matemática para diseñar estructuras de mantenimiento basado en los resultados de los estudios anteriores. La herramienta, elaborada mediante programación lineal entera mixta, se ha aplicado al programa marroquí con el fin de validar el modelo propuesto. ABSTRACT With 1,300 million people worldwide deprived of access to electricity (mostly in rural environments), photovoltaic solar energy has proven to be a cost‐effective solution and the only hope for electrifying the most remote inhabitants of the planet, where conventional electric grids do not reach because they are unaffordable. Almost all countries in the world have had some kind of rural photovoltaic electrification programme during the past 40 years, mainly the poorer countries, where through different organizational models, millions of solar home systems (small photovoltaic systems for domestic use) have been installed. During this long period, many barriers have been overcome, such as quality enhancement, cost reduction, the optimization of designing and sizing, financial availability, etc. Thanks to this, decentralized rural electrification has recently experienced a change of scale characterized by new programmes with thousands of solar home systems and long maintenance periods. Many of these large programmes are being developed with limited success, as they have generally been based on assumptions that do not correspond to reality, compromising the economic return that allows long term activity. In this scenario a new challenge emerges, which approaches the sustainability of large programmes. It is argued that the main cause of unprofitability is the unexpected high cost of the operation and maintenance of the solar systems. In fact, the lack of a paradigm in decentralized rural services has led to many private companies to carry out decentralized electrification programmes blindly. Issues such as the operation and maintenance cost structure or the reliability of the solar home system components have still not been characterized. This situation does not allow optimized maintenance structure to be designed to assure the sustainability and profitability of the operation and maintenance service. This PhD thesis aims to respond to these needs. Several studies have been carried out based on a real and large photovoltaic rural electrification programme carried out in Morocco with more than 13,000 solar home systems. An in‐depth reliability assessment has been made from a 5‐year maintenance database with more than 80,000 maintenance inputs. The results have allowed us to establish the real reliability functions, the failure rate and the main time to failure of the main components of the system, reporting these findings for the first time in the field of rural electrification. Both in‐field experiments on the capacity degradation of batteries and power degradation of photovoltaic modules have been carried out. During the experiments both samples of batteries and modules were operating under real conditions integrated into the solar home systems of the Moroccan programme. In the case of the batteries, the results have enabled us to obtain a proposal of definition of death of batteries in rural electrification. A cost assessment of the Moroccan experience based on a 5‐year accounting database has been carried out to characterize the cost structure of the programme. The results have allowed the major costs of the photovoltaic electrification to be defined. The overall cost ratio per installed system has been calculated together with the necessary fees that users would have to pay to make the operation and maintenance affordable. Finally, a mathematical optimization model has been proposed to design maintenance structures based on the previous study results. The tool has been applied to the Moroccan programme with the aim of validating the model.