B2DI a bayesian BDI agent model with causal belief updating based on MSBN

In this paper, we introduce B2DI model that extends BDI model to perform Bayesian inference under uncertainty. For scalability and flexibility purposes, Multiply Sectioned Bayesian Network (MSBN) technology has been selected and adapted to BDI agent reasoning. A belief update mechanism has been defined for agents, whose belief models are connected by public shared beliefs, and the certainty of these beliefs is updated based on MSBN. The classical BDI agent architecture has been extended in order to manage uncertainty using Bayesian reasoning. The resulting extended model, so-called B2DI, proposes a new control loop. The proposed B2DI model has been evaluated in a network fault diagnosis scenario. The evaluation has compared this model with two previously developed agent models. The evaluation has been carried out with a real testbed diagnosis scenario using JADEX. As a result, the proposed model exhibits significant improvements in the cost and time required to carry out a reliable diagnosis.

An analytical model for simulating the bond of prestressed concrete during the prestressed force release

A bond analytical model is proposed in this paper. The model is capable of reproducing the bond stress developed between the steel and concrete, in precast prestressed elements, during the entire process of prestressing force release. The bond stress developed in the transmission zone, where the bond stress is not constant, is also obtained. The steel and concrete stresses as well as the slip between both materials can be also estimated by means of the relation established in the model between these parameters and the bond stress. The model is validated with the results of a series of tests, considering different steel indentation depths and concrete covers and it is extended to evaluate the transmission length. This has been checked by comparing the transmission length predicted by the model and one measured experimentally in two series of tests.

An approach to a model of the visual cortex: disorders of vision

One of the most challenging problems that must be solved by any theoretical model purporting to explain the competence of the human brain for relational tasks is the one related with the analysis and representation of the internal structure in an extended spatial layout of múltiple objects. In this way, some of the problems are related with specific aims as how can we extract and represent spatial relationships among objects, how can we represent the movement of a selected object and so on. The main objective of this paper is the study of some plausible brain structures that can provide answers in these problems. Moreover, in order to achieve a more concrete knowledge, our study will be focused on the response of the retinal layers for optical information processing and how this information can be processed in the first cortex layers. The model to be reported is just a first trial and some major additions are needed to complete the whole vision process.

How much energy will your NGN consume? A model for energy consumption in next generation access networks: The case of Spain

The contribution to global energy consumption of the information and communications technology (ICT) sector has increased considerably in the last decade, along with its growing relevance to the overall economy. This trend will continue due to the seemingly ever greater use of these technologies, with broadband data traffic generated by the usage of telecommunication networks as a primary component. In fact, in response to user demand, the telecommunications industry is initiating the deployment of next generation networks (NGNs). However, energy consumption is mostly absent from the debate on these deployments, in spite of the potential impact on both expenses and sustainability. In addition, consumers are unaware of the energy impact of their choices in ultra-broadband services. This paper focuses on forecasting energy consumption in the access part of NGNs by modelling the combined effect of the deployment of two different ultra-broadband technologies (FTTH-GPON and LTE), the evolution of traffic per user, and the energy consumption in each of the networks and user devices. Conclusions are presented on the levels of energy consumption, their cost and the impact of different network design parameters. The effect of technological developments, techno-economic and policy decisions on energy consumption is highlighted. On the consumer side, practical figures and comparisons across technologies are provided. Although the paper focuses on Spain, the analysis can be extended to similar countries.

Emissive Langmuir Probes in the Strong Emission Regime for the Determination of the Plasma Properties

The determination of the plasma potential Vpl of unmagnetized plasmas by using the floating potential of emissive Langmuir probes operated in the strong emission regime is investigated. The experiments evidence that, for most cases, the electron thermionic emission is orders of magnitude larger than the plasma thermal electron current. The temperature-dependent floating potentials of negatively biased Vpmenor queVpl emissive probes are in agreement with the predictions of a simple phenomenological model that considers, in addition to the plasma electrons, an ad-ditional electron group that contributes to the probe current. The latter would be constituted by a fraction of the repelled electron thermionic current, which might return back to the probe with a different energy spectrum. Its origin would be a plasma potential well formed in the plasma sheath around the probe, acting as a virtual cathode or by collisions and electron thermalization pro-cesses. These results suggest that, for probe bias voltages close to the plasma potential Vp?Vpl, two electron populations coexist, i.e., the electrons from the plasma with temperatureTeand a large group of returned thermionic electrons. These results question the theoretical possibility of measuring the electron temperature by using emissive probes biased to potentials Vp about lower equal than ?Vpl.

An extension of Mohring’s model for land rent distribution

In an early paper Herbert Mohring (J. Poi Et on , 49 (1961)) presented a model for land rent distribution yielding the well-known result that the price of land must fall with the distance from the city center to offset transportation costs. Our paper is an extension of Mohring's model in which we relax some of his drastic simplifying assumptions. This extended model has been incorporated in a method for economic evaluation of city master plans which has been applied to a Swedish city. In this method the interdependence among housing, heating, and transportation, the dura-bility of urban structures, and the uncertainty of future demand are explicitly considered within a cost-benefit approach. Some empirical results from this pilot study concerning land rent distributions are also presented here.

Diagnostics of classical and dusty plasmas w ith collecting and emissive langmuir probes = Diagnosis de plasmas clásicos y granulares mediante sondas colectoras y emisoras de Langmuir

Las sondas eléctricas se emplean habitualmente en la diagnosis de plasmas. La presente tesis aborda la operación de las sondas colectoras y emisoras de Langmuir en plasmas fríos de baja densidad. El estudio se ha centrado en la determinación del potencial de plasma, Vsp, mediante el potencial flotante de una sonda emisora. Esta técnica consiste en la medida del potencial de la sonda correspondiente a la condición de corriente neta igual a cero, el cual se denomina potencial flotante, VF. Este potencial se desplaza hacia el potencial del plasma según aumenta la emisión termoiónica de la sonda, hasta que se satura cerca de Vsp. Los experimentos llevados a cabo en la pluma de plasma de un motor iónico y en un plasma de descarga de glow muestran que la corriente de electrones termoiónicos es mayor que la corriente de electrones recogidos para una sonda polarizada por debajo del potencial del plasma, resultado inconsistente con la teoría tradicionalmente aceptada. Para investigar estos resultados se ha introducido el parámetro R, definido como el cociente entre la corriente de electrones emitidos y recogidos por la sonda. Este parámetro, que está relacionado con la diferencia de potencial VF - Vsp, también es útil para la descripción de los modos de operación de la sonda emisora (débil, fuerte y más allá del fuerte). Los resultados experimentales evidencian que, al contrario de lo que indica la teoría, R es mayor que la unidad. Esta discrepancia se puede solucionar introduciendo una población efectiva de electrones. Con dicha población, el nuevo modelo para la corriente total de la sonda reproduce los datos experimentales. El origen de este grupo electrónico es todavía una cuestión abierta, pero podría estar originada por una nueva estructura de potencial cerca de la sonda cuando ésta trabaja en el régimen de emisión fuerte. Para explicar dicha estructura de potencial, se propone un modelo unidimensional compuesto por un mínimo de potencial cerca de la superficie de la sonda. El análisis numérico indica que este pozo de potencial aparece para muy altas temperaturas de la sonda, reduciendo la cantidad de electrones emitidos que alcanzan el plasma y evitando así cualquier posible perturbación de éste. Los aspectos experimentales involucrados en el método del potencial flotante también se han estudiado, incluyendo cuestiones como las diferentes técnicas de obtención del VF, el cociente señal-ruido, el acoplamiento de la señal de los equipos utilizados para la obtención de las curvas I-V o la evidencia experimental de los diferentes modos de operación de la sonda. Estas evidencias empíricas se encuentran en todos los aspectos de operación de la sonda: la recolección de electrones, el potencial flotante, la precisión en las curvas I-V y la emisión electrónica. Ésta última también se estudia en la tesis, debido a que un fenómeno de super emisión tiene lugar en el régimen de emisión fuerte. En este modo de operación, las medidas experimentales indican que las corrientes termoiónicas de electrones son mayores que aquéllas predichas por la ecuación de Richardson-Dushman clásica. Por último, la diagnosis de plasmas usando sondas eléctrica bajo presencia de granos de polvo (plasmas granulares) en plasmas fríos de baja densidad también se ha estudiado, mediante la aplicación numérica de la técnica del potencial flotante de la sonda emisora en un plasma no convencional. Los resultados apuntan a que el potencial flotante de una sonda emisora se vería afectado por altas densidades de polvo o grandes partículas. ABSTRACT Electric probes are widely employed for plasma diagnostics. This dissertation concerns the operation of collecting and emissive Langmuir probes in low density cold plasmas. The study is focused on the determination of the plasma potential, Vsp, by means of the floating potential of emissive probes. This technique consists of the measurement of the probe potential, corresponding to the zero net probe current, which is the so-called floating potential, VF . This potential displaces towards the plasma potential as the thermionic electron emission increases, until it saturates near Vsp. Experiments carried out in the plasma plume of an ion thruster and in a glow discharge plasma show the thermionic electron current of the emissive Langmuir probe is higher than the collected electron current, for a probe with a bias potential below Vsp, which is inconsistent with the traditional accepted theory. To investigate these results, a parameter R is introduced as the ratio between the emitted and the collected electron current. This parameter, which is related to the difference VF - Vsp, is also useful for the description of the operation modes of the emissive Langmuir probe (weak, strong and beyond strong). The experimental results give an inconsistency of R > 1, which is solved by a modification of the theory for emissive probes, with the introduction of an effective electron population. With this new electron group, the new model for the total probe current agrees with the experimental data. The origin of this electron group remains an open question, but it might be originated by a new potential structure near the emissive probe when it operates in the strong emission regime. A simple one-dimension model composed by a minimum of potential near the probe surface is discussed for strongly emitting emissive probes. The results indicate that this complex potential structure appears for very high probe temperatures and the potential well might reduce the emitted electrons population reaching the plasma bulk. The experimental issues involved in the floating potential method are also studied, as the different obtaining techniques of VF, the signal-to-noise ratio, the signal coupling of the I-V curve measurement system or the experimental evidence of the probe operation modes. These empirical proofs concern all the probe operation aspects: the electron collection, the floating potential, the I-V curve accuracy as well as the electron emission. This last issue is also investigated in this dissertation, because a super emission takes place in the strong emission regime. In this operation mode, the experimental results indicate that the thermionic electron currents might be higher than those predicted by the classical Richardson-Dushman equation. Finally, plasma diagnosis using electric probes in the presence of dust grains (dusty plasmas) in low density cold plasmas is also addressed. The application of the floating potential technique of the emissive probe in a non-conventional complex plasma is numerically investigated, whose results point out the floating potential of the emissive probe might be shifted for high dust density or large dust particles.

Flood frequency analysis by a bivariate model based on copulas

La adecuada estimación de avenidas de diseño asociadas a altos periodos de retorno es necesaria para el diseño y gestión de estructuras hidráulicas como presas. En la práctica, la estimación de estos cuantiles se realiza normalmente a través de análisis de frecuencia univariados, basados en su mayoría en el estudio de caudales punta. Sin embargo, la naturaleza de las avenidas es multivariada, siendo esencial tener en cuenta características representativas de las avenidas, tales como caudal punta, volumen y duración del hidrograma, con el fin de llevar a cabo un análisis apropiado; especialmente cuando el caudal de entrada se transforma en un caudal de salida diferente durante el proceso de laminación en un embalse o llanura de inundación. Los análisis de frecuencia de avenidas multivariados han sido tradicionalmente llevados a cabo mediante el uso de distribuciones bivariadas estándar con el fin de modelar variables correlacionadas. Sin embargo, su uso conlleva limitaciones como la necesidad de usar el mismo tipo de distribuciones marginales para todas las variables y la existencia de una relación de dependencia lineal entre ellas. Recientemente, el uso de cópulas se ha extendido en hidrología debido a sus beneficios en relación al contexto multivariado, permitiendo superar los inconvenientes de las técnicas tradicionales. Una copula es una función que representa la estructura de dependencia de las variables de estudio, y permite obtener la distribución de frecuencia multivariada de dichas variables mediante sus distribuciones marginales, sin importar el tipo de distribución marginal utilizada. La estimación de periodos de retorno multivariados, y por lo tanto, de cuantiles multivariados, también se facilita debido a la manera en la que las cópulas están formuladas. La presente tesis doctoral busca proporcionar metodologías que mejoren las técnicas tradicionales usadas por profesionales para estimar cuantiles de avenida más adecuados para el diseño y la gestión de presas, así como para la evaluación del riesgo de avenida, mediante análisis de frecuencia de avenidas bivariados basados en cópulas. Las variables consideradas para ello son el caudal punta y el volumen del hidrograma. Con el objetivo de llevar a cabo un estudio completo, la presente investigación abarca: (i) el análisis de frecuencia de avenidas local bivariado centrado en examinar y comparar los periodos de retorno teóricos basados en la probabilidad natural de ocurrencia de una avenida, con el periodo de retorno asociado al riesgo de sobrevertido de la presa bajo análisis, con el fin de proporcionar cuantiles en una estación de aforo determinada; (ii) la extensión del enfoque local al regional, proporcionando un procedimiento completo para llevar a cabo un análisis de frecuencia de avenidas regional bivariado para proporcionar cuantiles en estaciones sin aforar o para mejorar la estimación de dichos cuantiles en estaciones aforadas; (iii) el uso de cópulas para investigar tendencias bivariadas en avenidas debido al aumento de los niveles de urbanización en una cuenca; y (iv) la extensión de series de avenida observadas mediante la combinación de los beneficios de un modelo basado en cópulas y de un modelo hidrometeorológico. Accurate design flood estimates associated with high return periods are necessary to design and manage hydraulic structures such as dams. In practice, the estimate of such quantiles is usually done via univariate flood frequency analyses, mostly based on the study of peak flows. Nevertheless, the nature of floods is multivariate, being essential to consider representative flood characteristics, such as flood peak, hydrograph volume and hydrograph duration to carry out an appropriate analysis; especially when the inflow peak is transformed into a different outflow peak during the routing process in a reservoir or floodplain. Multivariate flood frequency analyses have been traditionally performed by using standard bivariate distributions to model correlated variables, yet they entail some shortcomings such as the need of using the same kind of marginal distribution for all variables and the assumption of a linear dependence relation between them. Recently, the use of copulas has been extended in hydrology because of their benefits regarding dealing with the multivariate context, as they overcome the drawbacks of the traditional approach. A copula is a function that represents the dependence structure of the studied variables, and allows obtaining the multivariate frequency distribution of them by using their marginal distributions, regardless of the kind of marginal distributions considered. The estimate of multivariate return periods, and therefore multivariate quantiles, is also facilitated by the way in which copulas are formulated. The present doctoral thesis seeks to provide methodologies that improve traditional techniques used by practitioners, in order to estimate more appropriate flood quantiles for dam design, dam management and flood risk assessment, through bivariate flood frequency analyses based on the copula approach. The flood variables considered for that goal are peak flow and hydrograph volume. In order to accomplish a complete study, the present research addresses: (i) a bivariate local flood frequency analysis focused on examining and comparing theoretical return periods based on the natural probability of occurrence of a flood, with the return period associated with the risk of dam overtopping, to estimate quantiles at a given gauged site; (ii) the extension of the local to the regional approach, supplying a complete procedure for performing a bivariate regional flood frequency analysis to either estimate quantiles at ungauged sites or improve at-site estimates at gauged sites; (iii) the use of copulas to investigate bivariate flood trends due to increasing urbanisation levels in a catchment; and (iv) the extension of observed flood series by combining the benefits of a copula-based model and a hydro-meteorological model.

Type-I intermittency with discontinuous reinjection probability density in a truncation model of the derivative nonlinear Schrödinger equation

In previous papers, the type-I intermittent phenomenon with continuous reinjection probability density (RPD) has been extensively studied. However, in this paper type-I intermittency considering discontinuous RPD function in one-dimensional maps is analyzed. To carry out the present study the analytic approximation presented by del Río and Elaskar (Int. J. Bifurc. Chaos 20:1185-1191, 2010) and Elaskar et al. (Physica A. 390:2759-2768, 2011) is extended to consider discontinuous RPD functions. The results of this analysis show that the characteristic relation only depends on the position of the lower bound of reinjection (LBR), therefore for the LBR below the tangent point the relation {Mathematical expression}, where {Mathematical expression} is the control parameter, remains robust regardless the form of the RPD, although the average of the laminar phases {Mathematical expression} can change. Finally, the study of discontinuous RPD for type-I intermittency which occurs in a three-wave truncation model for the derivative nonlinear Schrodinger equation is presented. In all tests the theoretical results properly verify the numerical data

Identification of intermediate debonding damage in FRP-plated RC beams based on multi-objective particle swarm optimization without updated baseline model

Fiber reinforced polymer composites (FRP) have found widespread usage in the repair and strengthening of concrete structures. FRP composites exhibit high strength-to-weight ratio, corrosion resistance, and are convenient to use in repair applications. Externally bonded FRP flexural strengthening of concrete beams is the most extended application of this technique. A common cause of failure in such members is associated with intermediate crack-induced debonding (IC debonding) of the FRP substrate from the concrete in an abrupt manner. Continuous monitoring of the concrete?FRP interface is essential to pre- vent IC debonding. Objective condition assessment and performance evaluation are challenging activities since they require some type of monitoring to track the response over a period of time. In this paper, a multi-objective model updating method integrated in the context of structural health monitoring is demonstrated as promising technology for the safety and reliability of this kind of strengthening technique. The proposed method, solved by a multi-objective extension of the particle swarm optimization method, is based on strain measurements under controlled loading. The use of permanently installed fiber Bragg grating (FBG) sensors embedded into the FRP-concrete interface or bonded onto the FRP strip together with the proposed methodology results in an automated method able to operate in an unsupervised mode.

Visualization of a student predictive model for 3D virtual environments driven to procedural training

This document presents theimplementation ofa Student Behavior Predictor Viewer(SBPV)for a student predictive model. The student predictive model is part of an intelligent tutoring system, and is built from logs of students’ behaviors in the “Virtual Laboratory of Agroforestry Biotechnology”implemented in a previous work.The SBPVis a tool for visualizing a 2D graphical representationof the extended automaton associated with any of the clusters ofthe student predictive model. Apart from visualizing the extended automaton, the SBPV supports the navigation across the automaton by means of desktop devices. More precisely, the SBPV allows user to move through the automaton, to zoom in/out the graphic or to locate a given state. In addition, the SBPV also allows user to modify the default layout of the automaton on the screen by changing the position of the states by means of the mouse. To developthe SBPV, a web applicationwas designedand implementedrelying on HTML5, JavaScript and C#.

The extended Betz–Lanchester limit

A proposal for an extended formulation of the power coefficient of a wind turbine is presented. This new formulation is a generalization of the Betz–Lanchester expression for the power coefficient as function of the axial deceleration of the wind speed provoked by the wind turbine in operation. The extended power coefficient takes into account the benefits of the power produced and the cost associated to the production of this energy. By the simple model proposed is evidenced that the purely energetic optimum operation condition giving rise to the Betz–Lanchester limit (maximum energy produced) does not coincide with the global optimum operational condition (maximum benefit generated) if cost of energy and degradation of the wind turbine during operation is considered. The new extended power coefficient is a general parameter useful to define global optimum operation conditions for wind turbines, considering not only the energy production but also the maintenance cost and the economic cost associated to the life reduction of the machine.