Lagrangian tools and the assessment of the predictive capacity of geophysical data sets

We examine, with recently developed Lagrangian tools, altimeter data and numerical simulations obtained from the HYCOM model in the Gulf of Mexico. Our data correspond to the months just after the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the year 2010. Our Lagrangian analysis provides a skeleton that allows the interpretation of transport routes over the ocean surface. The transport routes are further verified by the simultaneous study of the evolution of several drifters launched during those months in the Gulf of Mexico. We find that there exist Lagrangian structures that justify the dynamics of the drifters, although the agreement depends on the quality of the data. We discuss the impact of the Lagrangian tools on the assessment of the predictive capacity of these data sets.

Analytical bearing capacity of strip footing in weightless materials with power-law failure criteria

Sokolovskii’s method of characteristics is extended to provide analytical solutions for the ultimate load at the moment of plastic failure under plane-strain conditions of shallow strip foundations on weightless rigid-plastic media with a noncohesive power-law failure envelope. The formulation is made parametrically in terms of the instantaneous friction angle, and the key idea to obtain the bearing capacity is that information can be transmitted from the free surface (where external loads are known) to the contact plane of the foundation. The methodology can consider foundations adjacent to a slope, external surcharges at the free surface, and inclined loads (both on the slope and on the foundation). Sensitivity analyses illustrate the influence on bearing capacity of changes in the different geometrical parameters involved. An application example is presented and design plots are provided, and model predictions are compared with results of bearing capacity tests under low gravity.

Ultimate bearing capacity at the tip of a pile in rock based on the modifed Hoek-Brown criterion

Highlights of this paper: a method for calculating the ultimate bearing capacity at the tip of a pile is presented; ultimate bearing capacity is generalized for the modified Hoek–Brown criterion; perfect plasticity, isotropy, weightless rock media, without inertial forces, Meyerhof׳s hypothesis are considered; all the formulation can be programmed in a spreadsheet.

Heated fiber optic distributed temperature sensing for measuring soil volumetric heat capacity and water content: A dual probe heat-pulse approach

The first feasibility study of using dual-probe heated fiber optics with distributed temperature sensing to measure soil volumetric heat capacity and soil water content is presented. Although results using different combinations of cables demonstrate feasibility, further work is needed to gain accuracy, including a model to account for the finite dimension and the thermal influence of the probes. Implementation of the dual-probe heat-pulse (DPHP) approach for measurement of volumetric heat capacity (C) and water content (θ) with distributed temperature sensing heated fiber optic (FO) systems presents an unprecedented opportunity for environmental monitoring (e.g., simultaneous measurement at thousands of points). We applied uniform heat pulses along a FO cable and monitored the thermal response at adjacent cables. We tested the DPHP method in the laboratory using multiple FO cables at a range of spacings. The amplitude and phase shift in the heat signal with distance was found to be a function of the soil volumetric heat capacity. Estimations of C at a range of moisture contents (θ = 0.09– 0.34 m3 m−3) suggest the feasibility of measurement via responsiveness to the changes in θ, although we observed error with decreasing soil water contents (up to 26% at θ = 0.09 m3 m−3). Optimization will require further models to account for the finite radius and thermal influence of the FO cables. Although the results indicate that the method shows great promise, further study is needed to quantify the effects of soil type, cable spacing, and jacket configurations on accuracy.

Autopercepción de inteligencia contextual para jugar y de competencia decisional en el fútbol

En el presente estudio se analizó la autopercepción de competencia decisional y la inteligencia contex- tual de jugadores de fútbol de diferente nivel de pericia. Además, se exploraron las relaciones existen- tes entre las autopercepciones de competencia para decidir y de inteligencia contextual en jugadores de fútbol, para lo cual participaron voluntariamente 467 jugadores (M = 20,26, DT = 4,83). El nivel de peri- cia de los participantes se estableció en tres diferentes: Autonómico (N = 141), nacional (N = 253) e internacional (N = 73), de un total de 46 clubes españoles así como de varias selecciones nacionales. Se utilizaron dos instrumentos en forma de cuestionarios. El primero fue el Cuestionario de Inteligencia Contextual Percibida en el deporte (ICD) y el segundo el de Estilos de Toma de Decisión en el Deporte (CETD). Los resultados mostraron que la competencia decisional y la inteligencia contextual están rela- cionadas y mejoran según aumenta el nivel deportivo.

Capacity Building through education, research and collaboration: AFRICA BUILD, an eHealth Case Study

AFRICA BUILD (AB) is a Coordination Action project under the 7th European Framework Programme having the aim of improving the capacities for health research and education in Africa through Information and Communication Technologies (ICT). This project, started in 2012, has promoted health research, education and evidence-based practice in Africa through the creation of centers of excellence, by using ICT,?know-how?, eLearning and knowledge sharing, through Web-enabled virtual communities.

Service Capacity Reserve under Uncertainty by Hospital’s ER Analogies: A Practical Model for Car Services

We define a capacity reserve model to dimension passenger car service installations according to the demographic distribution of the area to be serviced by using hospital?s emergency room analogies. Usually, service facilities are designed applying empirical methods, but customers arrive under uncertain conditions not included in the original estimations, and there is a gap between customer?s real demand and the service?s capacity. Our research establishes a valid methodology and covers the absence of recent researches and the lack of statistical techniques implementation, integrating demand uncertainty in a unique model built in stages by implementing ARIMA forecasting, queuing theory, and Monte Carlo simulation to optimize the service capacity and occupancy, minimizing the implicit cost of the capacity that must be reserved to service unexpected customers. Our model has proved to be a useful tool for optimal decision making under uncertainty integrating the prediction of the cost implicit in the reserve capacity to serve unexpected demand and defining a set of new process indicators, such us capacity, occupancy, and cost of capacity reserve never studied before. The new indicators are intended to optimize the service operation. This set of new indicators could be implemented in the information systems used in the passenger car services.

Service capacity reserve under uncertainty by hospital's ER's analogies: a practical model for car services

El objetivo de esta investigación consiste en definir un modelo de reserva de capacidad, por analogías con emergencias hospitalarias, que pueda ser implementado en el sector de servicios. Este está específicamente enfocado a su aplicación en talleres de servicio de automóviles. Nuestra investigación incorpora la incertidumbre de la demanda en un modelo singular diseñado en etapas que agrupa técnicas ARIMA, teoría de colas y simulación Monte Carlo para definir los conceptos de capacidad y ocupación de servicio, que serán utilizados para minimizar el coste implícito de la reserva capacidad necesaria para atender a clientes que carecen de cita previa. Habitualmente, las compañías automovilísticas estiman la capacidad de sus instalaciones de servicio empíricamente, pero los clientes pueden llegar bajo condiciones de incertidumbre que no se tienen en cuenta en dichas estimaciones, por lo que existe una diferencia entre lo que el cliente realmente demanda y la capacidad que ofrece el servicio. Nuestro enfoque define una metodología válida para el sector automovilístico que cubre la ausencia genérica de investigaciones recientes y la habitual falta de aplicación de técnicas estadísticas en el sector. La equivalencia con la gestión de urgencias hospitalarias se ha validado a lo largo de la investigación en la se definen nuevos indicadores de proceso (KPIs) Tal y como hacen los hospitales, aplicamos modelos estocásticos para dimensionar las instalaciones de servicio de acuerdo con la distribución demográfica del área de influencia. El modelo final propuesto integra la predicción del coste implícito en la reserva de capacidad para atender la demanda no prevista. Asimismo, se ha desarrollado un código en Matlab que puede integrarse como un módulo adicional a los sistemas de información (DMS) que se usan actualmente en el sector, con el fin de emplear los nuevos indicadores de proceso definidos en el modelo. Los resultados principales del modelo son nuevos indicadores de servicio, tales como la capacidad, ocupación y coste de reserva de capacidad, que nunca antes han sido objeto de estudio en la industria automovilística, y que están orientados a gestionar la operativa del servicio. ABSTRACT Our aim is to define a Capacity Reserve model to be implemented in the service sector by hospital's emergency room (ER) analogies, with a practical approach to passenger car services. A stochastic model has been implemented using R and a Monte Carlo simulation code written in Matlab and has proved a very useful tool for optimal decision making under uncertainty. The research integrates demand uncertainty in a unique model which is built in stages by implementing ARIMA forecasting, Queuing Theory and a Monte Carlo simulation to define the concepts of service capacity and occupancy, minimizing the implicit cost of the capacity that must be reserved to service unexpected customers. Usually, passenger car companies estimate their service facilities capacity using empirical methods, but customers arrive under uncertain conditions not included in the estimations. Thus, there is a gap between customer’s real demand and the dealer’s capacity. This research sets a valid methodology for the passenger car industry to cover the generic absence of recent researches and the generic lack of statistical techniques implementation. The hospital’s emergency room (ER) equalization has been confirmed to be valid for the passenger car industry and new process indicators have been defined to support the study. As hospitals do, we aim to apply stochastic models to dimension installations according to the demographic distribution of the area to be serviced. The proposed model integrates the prediction of the cost implicit in the reserve capacity to serve unexpected demand. The Matlab code could be implemented as part of the existing information technology systems (ITs) to support the existing service management tools, creating a set of new process indicators. Main model outputs are new indicators, such us Capacity, Occupancy and Cost of Capacity Reserve, never studied in the passenger car service industry before, and intended to manage the service operation.

Development in Rural Areas Through Capacity Building and Education for Business

This paper is based on a case study located in Avila, central Spain. Its main objectives are to implement an entrepreneurship program and design a plan of capacity building and education for business in order to promote the development of rural areas. The methodological approach of the program is based on the use of tools that permit involving the various actors of the area from the early planning stages. The university's group that is carrying out the field work has relied on these participatory tools in very different areas and contexts for over 25 years. This has allowed the development of an advanced planning model called ?Working With People? that connects expert and experience knowledge in the territories where it is applied. With this methodological approach, the diagnosis of the territory and the design of the program's strategy has been carried out. Once completed the first phase of the program and in order to ensure the sustainability and applicability of future entrepreneurial initiatives, it is necessary to support and strengthen potential entrepreneurs through training activities and capacity building. It relies on ?How to learn from people who live there? to promote investment projects and to teach them with adequate educational skills. In this context, this article aims to study the implementation strategy of these training and capacity building activities studied from an academic perspective, as well as analyzing the potential effects of these actions in promoting entrepreneurship in the territories