A Valuation of SAREB, the Spanish “Bad Bank”, Upside Using the Real Options Methodology

This paper develops a model to analyze the upside potential of profitability of the SAREB (“Asset Management Company for Assets Arising from Bank Restructuring”), the Spanish “Bad Bank”. The model is based in the Real Options methodology, that is especially adequate due to the convergence of two elements, (i) depreciated assets with a high upside potential, and (ii) a highly volatile market as it has shown to be the real estate Spanish market. Our results suggest that the SAREB has a higher than expected profitability potentialthat would be dedicated to increase the return to its shareholders, mainly private banks. Consequently we also show that after the financial crisis are emerging two types of banks in Spain, in one hand the losers who are transferring their real estate assets at a deep discount, and in the other hand the winners, capturing the upside potential of those assets as shareholders of SAREB, and consequently consolidating their strength in the Spanish Real Estate Industry. It is worth to mention that Governments should make an effort in properly redistribute the wealth generated by the real Estate industry.

Return of Equity Issues in the Spanish Stock Market from the Investor’s Perspective, during the 1997-2012 Period

Is it profitable for an investor, from a risk-return perspective, to acquire a stake in a quoted company when a capital increase is announced? This paper analyses the return obtained from the investment in equity issues with cash contribution and pre-emptive rights, aimed at funding corporate activities: acquisitions, investments in new facilities and/or strengthening the balance sheet of the companies undertaking the equity issue. During the 16 years covered by the study, the results show a negative average excess risk-adjusted return of almost 5%, from the moment that the equity offer is announced until the completion of the preferential subscription period. To obtain this excess return, the difference between the nominal Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and the expected return, using the CAPM, is computed for each equity issue. The intention behind this method is to eliminate the effects of time and any other possible effect on the stock price during the period of the analysis.The results from this article are consistent with the Pecking Order theory for the Spanish Stock Market also six months after the preferential subscription period. However, there is a positive return after three months.

Functional response of Ulmus minor Mill. to drought, flooding and dutch elm disease

Ulmus minor es una especie arbórea originaria de Europa cuyas poblaciones han sido diezmadas por el hongo patógeno causante de la enfermedad de la grafiosis. La conservación de los olmos exige plantearse su propagación a través de plantaciones y conocer mejor su ecología y biología. Ulmus minor es un árbol de ribera, pero frecuentemente se encuentra alejado del cauce de arroyos y ríos, donde la capa freática sufre fuertes oscilaciones. Por ello, nuestra hipótesis general es que esta especie es moderadamente resistente tanto a la inundación como a la sequía. El principal objetivo de esta tesis doctoral es entender desde un punto de vista funcional la respuesta de U. minor a la inundación, la sequía y la infección por O. novo-ulmi; los factores que posiblemente más influyen en la distribución actual de U. minor. Con este objetivo se persigue dar continuidad a los esfuerzos de conservación de esta especie que desde hace años se dedican en varios centros de investigación a nivel mundial, ya que, entender mejor los mecanismos que contribuyen a la resistencia de U. minor ante la inoculación con O. novo-ulmi y factores de estrés abiótico ayudará en la selección y propagación de genotipos resistentes a la grafiosis. Se han planteado tres experimentos en este sentido. Primero, se ha comparado la tolerancia de brinzales de U. minor y U. laevis – otro olmo ibérico – a una inmersión controlada con el fin de evaluar su tolerancia a la inundación y comprender los mecanismos de aclimatación. Segundo, se ha comparado la tolerancia de brinzales de U. minor y Quercus ilex – una especie típica de ambientes Mediterránea secos – a la falta de agua en el suelo con el fin de evaluar el grado de tolerancia y los mecanismos de aclimatación a la sequía. El hecho de comparar dos especies contrastadas responde al interés en entender mejor cuales son los procesos que conducen a la muerte de una planta en condiciones de sequía – asunto sobre el que hay una interesante discusión desde hace algunos años. En tercer lugar, con el fin de entender mejor la resistencia de algunos genotipos de U. minor a la grafiosis, se han estudiado las diferencias fisiológicas y químicas constitutivas e inducidas por O. novo-ulmi entre clones de U. minor seleccionados a priori por su variable grado de resistencia a esta enfermedad. En el primer experimento se observó que los brinzales de U. minor sobrevivieron 60 días inmersos en una piscina con agua no estancada hasta una altura de 2-3 cm por encima del cuello de la raíz. A los 60 días, los brinzales de U. laevis se sacaron de la piscina y, a lo largo de las siguientes semanas, fueron capaces de recuperar las funciones fisiológicas que habían sido alteradas anteriormente. La conductividad hidráulica de las raíces y la tasa de asimilación de CO2 neta disminuyeron en ambas especies. Por el contrario, la tasa de respiración de hojas, tallos y raíces aumentó en las primeras semanas de la inundación, posiblemente en relación al aumento de energía necesario para desarrollar mecanismos de aclimatación a la inundación, como la hipertrofia de las lenticelas que se observó en ambas especies. Por ello, el desequilibrio del balance de carbono de la planta podría ser un factor relevante en la mortalidad de las plantas ante inundaciones prolongadas. Las plantas de U. minor (cultivadas en envases de 16 litros a media sombra) sobrevivieron por un prolongado periodo de tiempo en verano sin riego; la mitad de las plantas murieron tras 90 días sin riego. El cierre de los estomas y la pérdida de hojas contribuyeron a ralentizar las pérdidas de agua y tolerar la sequía en U. minor. Las obvias diferencias en tolerancia a la sequía con respecto a Q. ilex se reflejaron en la distinta capacidad para ralentizar la aparición del estrés hídrico tras dejar de regar y para transportar agua en condiciones de elevada tensión en el xilema. Más relevante es que las plantas con evidentes síntomas de decaimiento previo a su muerte exhibieron pérdidas de conductividad hidráulica en las raíces del 80% en ambas especies, mientras que las reservas de carbohidratos apenas variaron y lo hicieron de forma desigual en ambas especies. Árboles de U. minor de 5 y 6 años de edad (plantados en eras con riego mantenido) exhibieron una respuesta a la inoculación con O. novo-ulmi consistente con ensayos previos de resistencia. La conductividad hidráulica del tallo, el potencial hídrico foliar y la tasa de asimilación de CO2 neta disminuyeron significativamente en relación a árboles inoculados con agua, pero solo en los clones susceptibles. Este hecho enlaza con el perfil químico “más defensivo” de los clones resistentes, es decir, con los mayores niveles de suberina, ácidos grasos y compuestos fenólicos en estos clones que en los susceptibles. Ello podría restringir la propagación del hongo en el árbol y preservar el comportamiento fisiológico de los clones resistentes al inocularlos con el patógeno. Los datos indican una respuesta fisiológica común de U. minor a la inundación, la sequía y la infección por O. novo-ulmi: pérdida de conductividad hidráulica, estrés hídrico y pérdida de ganancia neta de carbono. Pese a ello, U. minor desarrolla varios mecanismos que le confieren una capacidad moderada para vivir en suelos temporalmente anegados o secos. Por otro lado, el perfil químico es un factor relevante en la resistencia de ciertos genotipos a la grafiosis. Futuros estudios deberían examinar como este perfil químico y la resistencia a la grafiosis se ven alteradas por el estrés abiótico. ABSTRACT Ulmus minor is a native European elm species whose populations have been decimated by the Dutch elm disease (DED). An active conservation of this species requires large-scale plantations and a better understanding of its biology and ecology. U. minor generally grows close to water channels. However, of the Iberian riparian tree species, U. minor is the one that spread farther away from rivers and streams. For these reasons, we hypothesize that this species is moderately tolerant to both flooding and drought stresses. The main aim of the present PhD thesis is to better understand the functional response of U. minor to the abiotic stresses – flooding and drought – and the biotic stress – DED – that can be most influential on its distribution. The overarching goal is to aid in the conservation of this emblematic species through a better understanding of the mechanisms that contribute to resistance to abiotic and biotic stresses; an information that can help in the selection of resistant genotypes and their expansion in large-scale plantations. To this end, three experiments were set up. First, we compared the tolerance to experimental immersion between seedlings of U. minor and U. laevis – another European riparian elm species – in order to assess their degree of tolerance and understand the mechanisms of acclimation to this stress. Second, we investigated the tolerance to drought of U. minor seedlings in comparison with Quercus ilex (an oak species typical of dry Mediterranean habitats). Besides assessing and understanding U. minor tolerance to drought at the seedling stage, the aim was to shed light into the functional alterations that trigger drought-induced plant mortality – a matter of controversy in the last years. Third, we studied constitutive and induced physiological and biochemical differences among clones of variable DED resistance, before and following inoculation with Ophiostoma novo-ulmi. The goal is to shed light into the factors of DED resistance that is evident in some genotypes of U. minor, but not others. Potted seedlings of U. minor survived for 60 days immersed in a pool with running water to approximately 2-3 cm above the stem collar. By this time, U. minor seedlings died, whereas U. laevis seedlings moved out of the pool were able to recover most physiological functions that had been altered by flooding. For example, root hydraulic conductivity and leaf photosynthetic CO2 uptake decreased in both species; while respiration initially increased with flooding in leaves, stems and roots possibly to respond to energy demands associated to mechanisms of acclimation to soil oxygen deficiency; as example, a remarkable hypertrophy of lenticels was soon observed in flooded seedlings of both species. Therefore, the inability to maintain a positive carbon balance somehow compromises seedling survival under flooding, earlier in U. minor than U. laevis, partly explaining their differential habitats. Potted seedlings of U. minor survived for a remarkable long time without irrigation – half of plants dying only after 90 days of no irrigation in conditions of high vapour pressure deficit typical of summer. Some mechanisms that contributed to tolerate drought were leaf shedding and stomata closure, which reduced water loss and the risk of xylem cavitation. Obviously, U. minor was less tolerant to drought than Q. ilex, differences in drought tolerance resulting mostly from the distinct capacity to postpone water stress and conduct water under high xylem tension among species. More relevant was that plants of both species exhibited similar symptoms of root hydraulic failure (i.e. approximately 80% loss of hydraulic conductivity), but a slight and variable depletion of non-structural carbohydrate reserves preceding dieback. Five- and six-year-old trees of U. minor (planted in the field with supplementary watering) belonging to clones of contrasted susceptibility to DED exhibited a different physiological response to inoculation with O. novo-ulmi. Stem hydraulic conductivity, leaf water potential and photosynthetic CO2 uptake decreased significantly relative to control trees inoculated with water only in DED susceptible clones. This is consistent with the “more defensive” chemical profile observed in resistant clones, i.e. with higher levels of saturated hydrocarbons (suberin and fatty acids) and phenolic compounds than in susceptible clones. These compounds could restrict the spread of O. novo-ulmi and contribute to preserving the near-normal physiological function of resistant trees when exposed to the pathogen. These results evidence common physiological responses of U. minor to flooding, drought and pathogen infection leading to xylem water disruption, leaf water stress and reduced net carbon gain. Still, seedlings of U. minor develop various mechanisms of acclimation to abiotic stresses that can play a role in surviving moderate periods of flood and drought. The chemical profile appears to be an important factor for the resistance of some genotypes of U. minor to DED. How abiotic stresses such as flooding and drought affect the capacity of resistant U. minor clones to face O. novo-ulmi is a key question that must be contemplated in future research.

Analysis and optimization of trajectories for Ballistic Missiles Interception

Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles are capable of placing a nuclear warhead at more than 5,000 km away from its launching base. With the lethal power of a nuclear warhead a whole city could be wiped out by a single weapon causing millions of deaths. This means that the threat posed to any country from a single ICBM captured by a terrorist group or launched by a 'rogue' state is huge. This threat is increasing as more countries are achieving nuclear and advanced launcher capabilities. In order to suppress or at least reduce this threat the United States created the National Missile Defense System which involved, among other systems, the development of long-range interceptors whose aim is to destroy incoming ballistic missiles in their midcourse phase. The Ballistic Missile Defense is a high-profile topic that has been the focus of political controversy lately when the U.S. decided to expand the Ballistic Missile system to Europe, with the opposition of Russia. However the technical characteristics of this system are mostly unknown by the general public. The Interception of an ICBM using a long range Interceptor Missile as intended within the Ground-Based Missile Defense System by the American National Missile Defense (NMD) implies a series of problems of incredible complexity: - The incoming missile has to be detected almost immediately after launch. - The incoming missile has to be tracked along its trajectory with a great accuracy. - The Interceptor Missile has to implement a fast and accurate guidance algorithm in order to reach the incoming missile as soon as possible. - The Kinetic Kill Vehicle deployed by the interceptor boost vehicle has to be able to detect the reentry vehicle once it has been deployed by ICBM, when it offers a very low infrared signature, in order to perform a final rendezvous manoeuvre. - The Kinetic Kill Vehicle has to be able to discriminate the reentry vehicle from the surrounding debris and decoys. - The Kinetic Kill Vehicle has to be able to implement an accurate guidance algorithm in order to perform a kinetic interception (direct collision) of the reentry vehicle, at relative speeds of more than 10 km/s. All these problems are being dealt simultaneously by the Ground-Based Missile Defense System that is developing very complex and expensive sensors, communications and control centers and long-range interceptors (Ground-Based Interceptor Missile) including a Kinetic Kill Vehicle. Among all the technical challenges involved in this interception scenario, this thesis focuses on the algorithms required for the guidance of the Interceptor Missile and the Kinetic Kill Vehicle in order to perform the direct collision with the ICBM. The involved guidance algorithms are deeply analysed in this thesis in part III where conventional guidance strategies are reviewed and optimal guidance algorithms are developed for this interception problem. The generation of a realistic simulation of the interception scenario between an ICBM and a Ground Based Interceptor designed to destroy it was considered as necessary in order to be able to compare different guidance strategies with meaningful results. As a consequence, a highly representative simulator for an ICBM and a Kill Vehicle has been implemented, as detailed in part II, and the generation of these simulators has also become one of the purposes of this thesis. In summary, the main purposes of this thesis are: - To develop a highly representative simulator of an interception scenario between an ICBM and a Kill Vehicle launched from a Ground Based Interceptor. -To analyse the main existing guidance algorithms both for the ascent phase and the terminal phase of the missiles. Novel conclusions of these analyses are obtained. - To develop original optimal guidance algorithms for the interception problem. - To compare the results obtained using the different guidance strategies, assess the behaviour of the optimal guidance algorithms, and analyse the feasibility of the Ballistic Missile Defense system in terms of guidance (part IV). As a secondary objective, a general overview of the state of the art in terms of ballistic missiles and anti-ballistic missile defence is provided (part I).

Past, present and future of epigenetics applied to livestock breeding

This article reviews the concept of Lamarckian inheritance and the use of the term epigenetics in the field of animal genetics. Epigenetics was first coined by Conrad Hal Waddington (1905–1975), who derived the term from the Aristotelian word epigenesis. There exists some controversy around the word epigenetics and its broad definition. It includes any modification of the expression of genes due to factors other than mutation in the DNA sequence. This involves DNA methylation, post-translational modification of histones, but also linked to regulation of gene expression by non-coding RNAs, genome instabilities or any other force that could modify a phenotype. There is little evidence of the existence of transgenerational epigenetic inheritance in mammals, which may commonly be confounded with environmental forces acting simultaneously on an individual, her developing fetus and the germ cell lines of the latter, although it could have an important role in the cellular energetic status of cells. Finally, we review some of the scarce literature on the use of epigenetics in animal breeding programs.