Stresses and stability of a mine paste fill

Se describe el comportamiento de los rellenos de pasta de las cámaras primarias de la mina de Aguas Teñidas y se calcula la resistencia que deben tener dichos rellenos para que no se desmoronen las paredes de los mismos que quedan expuestas al extraer las cámaras secundarias.Abstract:This article presents the study carried out at an underground mine to understand the stress distribution in the paste fills and to calculate the stability of the paste walls. The mine is operated using sublevel stopes. Three-dimensional numerical models designed with the FLAC 3D software are used to study the distribution of the vertical stresses in the paste. The numerical models have demonstrated that an arc-like effect is produced in the paste fills of the primary stopes. This effect relieves the vertical stresses and increases the stability of the exposed paste wall fill. Based on the results of the numerical models, in the 30m high secondary stopes, the arc effect starts to be evident only in paste walls with a width/height ratio lower than 0.8. 3-D calculations show that the use of Mitchell, R. J. et al. (1982) formula may be risky when estimating the fill stability in secondary stopes.

The influence of economic incentives linked to road safety indicators on accidents: The case of toll concessions in Spain

The goal of this paper is to evaluate whether the incentives incorporated in toll highway concession contracts in order to encourage private operators to adopt measures to reduce accidents are actually effective at improving safety. To this end, we implemented negative binomial regression models using information about highway characteristics and accident data from toll highway concessions in Spain from 2007 to 2009. Our results show that even though road safety is highly influenced by variables that are not managed by the contractor, such as the annual average daily traffic (AADT), the percentage of heavy vehicles on the highway, number of lanes, number of intersections and average speed; the implementation of these incentives has a positive influence on the reduction of accidents and injuries. Consequently, this measure seems to be an effective way of improving safety performance in road networks.

Phytoextraction of heavy metals from mine soils using hyperaccumulator plants

The aim of this work was to study some hyperaccumulator species that could be useful to decontaminate mine soils and also to investigate the bioavailability and uptake of these metals by plants with the addition of organic amendments. Pot experiments were performed with soil samples collected from two mining areas in the north of Madrid, where there was an intense mining activity more than 50 years ago. Three species (Thlaspi arvense, Brassica juncea and Atriplex halimus) were grown under controlled conditions in pots filled with contaminated soils mixed with 0 Mg, 30 Mg and 60 Mg per hectare of two different organic amendments: a commercial compost made of pine bark, peat and wood fiber and other made of horse and sheep manure and wood fiber. Plants were harvested at the end of their crop cycle and were digested in order to measure metal concentration (Zn, Cu and Cd) in roots and shoots. Highest plant metal concentration was observed in pots treated with pine bark amendment and with pure soil due to an increase in metal bioavailability with decreasing pH. Also in those treatments the total plant biomass was lower, even some plants could not germinate. On the contrary, there was a lower metal concentration in plant tissues of pots with manure because its higher pH whereas plant growth was significantly larger so there was an incresing amount of metals removed from soil by plants. Comparing the three species results indicate a higher total metal uptake in A. halimus than B. juncea and T. arvense. In conclusion, results show that pH affects metal bioavailability and uptake by hyperaccumulator plants. Addition of organic amendments could be a successful technique for stabilization of metals in contaminated soils.

Effects of sheep and horse manure and pine bark amendments on metal distribution and chemical properties of contaminated mine soils.

Mine soils usually contain large levels of heavy metals and poor fertility conditions which limit their reclamation and the application of phyto-remediation technologies. Two organic waste materials (pine bark compost and sheep and horse manure compost), with different pHs and varying degrees of humification and nutrient contents, were applied as amendments to assess their effects on copper (Cu) and zinc (Zn) bioavailability and on fertility conditions of mine soils. Soil samples collected from two abandoned mining areas near Madrid (Spain) were mixed with 0, 30 and 60 t ha?1 of the organic amendments. The concentrations of metals among the different mineral and organic fractions of soil were determined by several extraction procedures to study the metal distribution in the solid phase of the soil affected by the organic amendments. The results showed that the manure amendment increased the soil pH and the cation exchange capacity and enhanced the nutrient levels of these soils. The pine bark amendment decreased the soil pH and did not significantly change the nutrient status of soil. Soil pH, organic matter content and its degree of humification, which were altered by the amendments, were the main factors affecting Cu fractionation. Zn fractionation was mainly affected by soil pH. The addition of manure not only improved soil fertility, but also decreased metal bioavailability resulting in a reduction of metal toxicity. Conversely, pine bark amendment increased metal ioavailability. The use of sheep and horse manure could be a cost-effective practice for the restoration of contaminated mine soils.

Phytostabilization of metals in mine soils using Brassica juncea in combination with organic amendments

Background and aims The high metal bioavailability and the poor conditions of mine soils yield a low plant biomass, limiting the application of phytoremediation techniques. A greenhouse experiment was performed to evaluate the effects of organic amendments on metal stabilization and the potential of Brassica juncea L. for phytostabilization in mine soils. Methods Plants were grown in pots filled with soils collected from two mine sites located in Central Spain mixed with 0, 30 and 60 tha?1 of pine bark compost and horse- and sheep-manure compost. Plant biomass and metal concentrations in roots and shoots were measured. Metal bioavailability was assessed using a rhizosphere-based method (rhizo), which consists of a mixture of low-molecular-weight organic acids to simulate root exudates. Results Manure reduced metal concentrations in shoots (10?50 % reduction of Cu and 40?80 % of Zn in comparison with non-amended soils), bioconcentration factor (10?50 % of Cu and 40?80 % of Zn) and metal bioavailability in soil (40?50 % of Cu and 10?30 % of Zn) due to the high pH and the contribution of organic matter. Manure improved soil fertility and was also able to increase plant biomass (5?20 times in shoots and 3?30 times in roots), which resulted in a greater amount of metals removed from soil and accumulated in roots (increase of 2?7 times of Cu and Zn). Plants grown in pine bark treatments and in non-amended soils showed a limited biomass and high metal concentrations in shoots. Conclusions The addition of manure could be effective for the stabilization of metals and for enhancing the phytostabilization ability of B. juncea in mine soils. In this study, this species resulted to be a potential candidate for phytostabilization in combination with manure, differing from previous results, in which B. juncea had been recognized as a phytoextraction plant.

Explosion risk in coke, coal and sulphur storage

The self-ignition of all kind of powdery substances is a topic studied over the years, especially if the dusty substance is coal or substances related with coal because it may be a cause of energetic materials and human losses. But it is important to note that this is not the only risk in industrial plants that generate or store solid substances. Every combustible powders are potentially explosive and they may cause serious consequences if all the necessary factors are developed. Due to this potentially risk, it is essential a good characterization and knowledge of all the parameters involved in those processes.

Gasification technology assessment of sterile coal to clean electrical power generation.

Sterile coal is a low-value residue associated to the coal extraction and mining activity. According to the type and origin of the coal bed configuration, sterile coal production can mainly vary on quantity, calorific value and presence of sulphur compounds. In addition, the potential availability of sterile coal within Spain is apparently high and its contribution to the local power generation would be of interest playing a significant role. The proposed study evaluates the availability and deployment of gasification technologies to drive clean electricity generation from waste coal and sterile rock coal, incorporating greenhouse gas emission mitigation systems, like CO2, H2S and NOx removal systems. It establishes the target facility and its conceptual basic design proposal. The syngas obtained after the gasification of sterile coal is processed through specific conditioning units before entering into the combustion chamber of a gas turbine. Flue gas leaving the gas turbine is ducted to a heat recovery steam generation boiler; the steam produced within the boilerdrives a steam turbine. The target facility resembles a singular Integrated Gasification in Combined Cycle (IGCC) power station. The evaluation of the conceptual basic design according to the power output set for a maximum sterile contribution, established that rates over 95% H2S and 90% CO2 removal can be achieved. Noticeable decrease of NOx compounds can be also achieved by the use of commercial technology. A techno-economic approach of the conceptual basic design is made evaluating the integration of potential unitsand their implementation within the target facility aiming toachieve clean power generation. The criterion to be compliant with the most restrictive regulation regarding environmental emissions is setting to carry out this analysis.

Zonal plant communities of the Ribesalbes-Alcora basin (La Rinconada mine, eastern Spain) during the early Miocene

Zonal plant communities of the Ribesalbes-Alcora basin (La Rinconada mine, eastern Spain) during the early Miocene

Mathematical modelling of pulverized coal furnaces

The goal of this paper is to show how mathematics and computational science can help to design not only the geometry but also the operation conditions of different parts of a pulverized coal power plant.

Distribution of the coal flow in the mill-duct system of the As Pontes Power Plant using CFD modeling

The efficiency of a Power Plant is affected by the distribution of the pulverized coal within the furnace. The coal, which is pulverized in the mills, is transported and distributed by the primary gas through the mill-ducts to the interior of the furnace. This is done with a double function: dry and enter the coal by different levels for optimizing the combustion in the sense that a complete combustion occurs with homogeneous heat fluxes to the walls. The mill-duct systems of a real Power Plant are very complex and they are not yet well understood. In particular, experimental data concerning the mass flows of coal to the different levels are very difficult to measure. CFD modeling can help to determine them. An Eulerian/Lagrangian approach is used due to the low solid–gas volume ratio.

Aplicación de la regresión logística en la predicción empírica de fenómenos complejos en obras subterráneas : squeezing y rotura de pilares de carbón

La heterogeneidad del medio geológico introduce en el proyecto de obra subterránea un alto grado de incertidumbre que debe ser debidamente gestionado a fin de reducir los riesgos asociados, que son fundamentalmente de tipo geotécnico. Entre los principales problemas a los que se enfrenta la Mecánica de Rocas moderna en el ámbito de la construcción subterránea, se encuentran la fluencia de roca en túneles (squeezing) y la rotura de pilares de carbón. Es ampliamente conocido que su aparición causa importantes perjuicios en el coste y la seguridad de los proyectos por lo que su estudio, ha estado tradicionalmente vinculado a la predicción de su ocurrencia. Entre las soluciones existentes para la determinación de estos problemas se encuentran las que se basan en métodos analíticos y numéricos. Estas metodologías son capaces de proporcionar un alto nivel de representatividad respecto del comportamiento geotécnico real, sin embargo, su utilización solo es posible cuando se dispone de una suficiente caracterización geotécnica y por tanto de una detallada definición de los parámetros que alimentan los complejos modelos constitutivos y criterios de rotura que los fenómenos estudiados requieren. Como es lógico, este nivel de definición solo es posible cuando se alcanzan etapas avanzadas de proyecto, incluso durante la propia construcción, a fin de calibrar adecuadamente los parámetros introducidos en los modelos, lo que supone una limitación de uso en etapas iniciales, cuando su predicción tiene verdadero sentido. Por su parte, los métodos empíricos permiten proporcionar soluciones a estos complejos problemas de un modo sencillo, con una baja parametrización y, dado su eminente enfoque observacional, de gran fiabilidad cuando se implementan sobre condiciones de contorno similares a las originales. La sencillez y escasez de los parámetros utilizados permiten a estas metodologías ser utilizadas desde las fases preliminares del proyecto, ya que estos constituyen en general, información habitual de fácil y económica adquisición. Este aspecto permite por tanto incorporar la predicción desde el principio del proceso de diseño, anticipando el riesgo en origen. En esta tesis doctoral, se presenta una nueva metodología empírica que sirve para proporcionar predicciones para la ocurrencia de squeezing y el fallo de pilares de carbón basada en una extensa recopilación de información de casos reales de túneles y minas en las que ambos fenómenos fueron evaluados. Esta información, recogida de referencias bibliográficas de prestigio, ha permitido recopilar una de las más extensas bases de datos existentes hasta la fecha relativa a estos fenómenos, lo que supone en sí mismo una importante contribución sobre el estado del arte. Con toda esta información, y con la ayuda de la teoría de clasificadores estadísticos, se ha implementado sobre las bases de datos un clasificador lineal de tipo regresión logística que permite hacer predicciones sobre la ocurrencia de ambos fenómenos en términos de probabilidad, y por tanto ponderar la incertidumbre asociada a la heterogeneidad incorporada por el medio geológico. Este aspecto del desarrollo es el verdadero valor añadido proporcionado por la tesis y la principal ventaja de la solución propuesta respecto de otras metodologías empíricas. Esta capacidad de ponderación probabilística permite al clasificador constituir una solución muy interesante como metodología para la evaluación de riesgo geotécnico y la toma de decisiones. De hecho, y como ejercicio de validación práctica, se ha implementado la solución desarrollada en un modelo coste-beneficio asociado a la optimización del diseño de pilares involucrados en una de mina “virtual” explotada por tajos largos. La capacidad del clasificador para cuantificar la probabilidad de fallo del diseño, junto con una adecuada cuantificación de las consecuencias de ese fallo, ha permitido definir una ley de riesgo que se ha incorporado al balance de costes y beneficios, que es capaz, a partir del redimensionamiento iterativo del sistema de pilares y de la propia configuración de la mina, maximizar el resultado económico del proyecto minero bajo unas condiciones de seguridad aceptables, fijadas de antemano. Geological media variability introduces to the subterranean project a high grade of uncertainty that should be properly managed with the aim to reduce the associated risks, which are mainly geotechnical. Among the major problems facing the modern Rock Mechanics in the field of underground construction are both, the rock squeezing while tunneling and the failure of coal pillars. Given their harmfulness to the cost and safety of the projects, their study has been traditionally linked to the determination of its occurrence. Among the existing solutions for the determination of these problems are those that are based on analytical and numerical methods. Those methodologies allow providing a high level of reliability of the geotechnical behavior, and therefore a detailed definition of the parameters that feed the complex constitutive models and failure criteria that require the studied phenomena. Obviously, this level of definition is only possible when advanced stages of the project are achieved and even during construction in order to properly calibrate the parameters entered in the models, which suppose a limited use in early stages, when the prediction has true sense. Meanwhile, empirical methods provide solutions to these complex problems in a simple way, with low parameterization and, given his observational scope, with highly reliability when implemented on similar conditions to the original context. The simplicity and scarcity of the parameters used allow these methodologies be applied in the early stages of the project, since that information should be commonly easy and cheaply to get. This aspect can therefore incorporate the prediction from the beginning of the design process, anticipating the risk beforehand. This thesis, based on the extensive data collection of case histories of tunnels and underground mines, presents a novel empirical approach used to provide predictions for the occurrence of both, squeezing and coal pillars failures. The information has been collected from prestigious references, providing one of the largest databases to date concerning phenomena, a fact which provides an important contribution to the state of the art. With all this information, and with the aid of the theory of statistical classifiers, it has been implemented on both databases, a type linear logistic regression classifier that allows predictions about the occurrence of these phenomena in terms of probability, and therefore weighting the uncertainty associated with geological variability. This aspect of the development is the real added value provided by the thesis and the main advantage of the proposed solution over other empirical methodologies. This probabilistic weighting capacity, allows being the classifier a very interesting methodology for the evaluation of geotechnical risk and decision making. In fact, in order to provide a practical validation, we have implemented the developed solution within a cost-benefit analysis associated with the optimization of the design of coal pillar systems involved in a "virtual" longwall mine. The ability of the classifier to quantify the probability of failure of the design along with proper quantification of the consequences of that failure, has allowed defining a risk law which is introduced into the cost-benefits model, which is able, from iterative resizing of the pillar system and the configuration of the mine, maximize the economic performance of the mining project under acceptable safety conditions established beforehand.

Safety and operability of small fishing vessels: study of a series of stability-related accidents

The intact stability of five small Spanish fishing vessels with ages between 3 and 8 years old which sunk in stability related accidents between 2004 and 2007 is compared to the stability of the fishing vessels which were retired from service to build those. The seakeeping performance of both sets of vessels is also compared. The differences found between the results obtained by the two methods have been analyzed. The suitability of seakeeping methods to assess stability performance is discussed.

Fishing effort control regulations influence on stability, safety and operability of small fishing vessels: study of a series of stability related accidents occurred in Spain between 2004 and 2007

Entre los años 2004 y 2007 se hundieron por problemas de estabilidad cinco pesqueros españoles de pequeña eslora, de características parecidas, de relativamente poca edad, que habían sido construidos en un intervalo de pocos años. La mayoría de los tripulantes de esos pesqueros fallecieron o desaparecieron en esos accidentes. Este conjunto de accidentes tuvo bastante repercusión social y mediática. Entre ingenieros navales y marinos del sector de la pesca se relacionó estos accidentes con los condicionantes a los diseños de los pesqueros impuestos por la normativa de control de esfuerzo pesquero. Los accidentes fueron investigados y publicados sus correspondientes informes; en ellos no se exploró esta supuesta relación. Esta tesis pretende investigar la relación entre esos accidentes y los cambios de la normativa de esfuerzo pesquero. En la introducción se expone la normativa de control de esfuerzo pesquero analizada, se presentan datos sobre la estructura de la flota pesquera en España y su accidentalidad, y se detallan los criterios de estabilidad manejados durante el trabajo, explicando su relación con la seguridad de los pesqueros. Seguidamente se realiza un análisis estadístico de la siniestralidad en el sector de la pesca para establecer si el conjunto de accidentes estudiados supone una anomalía, o si por el contrario el conjunto de estos accidentes no es relevante desde el punto de vista estadístico. Se analiza la siniestralidad a partir de diversas bases de datos de buques pesqueros en España y se concluye que el conjunto de accidentes estudiados supone una anomalía estadística, ya que la probabilidad de ocurrencia de los cinco sucesos es muy baja considerando la frecuencia estimada de pérdidas de buques por estabilidad en el subsector de la flota pesquera en el que se encuadran los cinco buques perdidos. A continuación el trabajo se centra en la comparación de los buques accidentados con los buques pesqueros dados de baja para construir aquellos, según exige la normativa de control de esfuerzo pesquero; a estos últimos buques nos referiremos como “predecesores” de los buques accidentados. Se comparan las dimensiones principales de cada buque y de su predecesor, resultando que los buques accidentados comparten características de diseño comunes que son sensiblemente diferentes en los buques predecesores, y enlazando dichas características de diseño con los requisitos de la nueva normativa de control del esfuerzo pesquero bajo la que se construyeron estos barcos. Ello permite establecer una relación entre los accidentes y el mencionado cambio normativo. A continuación se compara el margen con que se cumplían los criterios reglamentarios de estabilidad entre los buques accidentados y los predecesores, encontrándose que en cuatro de los cinco casos los predecesores cumplían los criterios de estabilidad con mayor holgura que los buques accidentados. Los resultados obtenidos en este punto permiten establecer una relación entre el cambio de normativa de esfuerzo pesquero y la estabilidad de los buques. Los cinco buques accidentados cumplían con los criterios reglamentarios de estabilidad en vigor, lo que cuestiona la relación entre esos criterios y la seguridad. Por ello se extiende la comparativa entre pesqueros a dos nuevos campos relacionados con la estabilidad y la seguridad delos buques: • Movimientos a bordo (operatividad del buque), y • Criterios de estabilidad en condiciones meteorológicas adversas El estudio de la operatividad muestra que los buques accidentados tenían, en general, una mayor operatividad que sus predecesores, contrariamente a lo que sucedía con el cumplimiento de los criterios reglamentarios de estabilidad. Por último, se comprueba el desempeño de los diez buques en dos criterios específicos de estabilidad en caso de mal tiempo: el criterio IMO de viento y balance intenso, y un criterio de estabilidad de nueva generación, incluyendo la contribución original del autor de considerar agua en cubierta. Las tendencias observadas en estas dos comparativas son opuestas, lo que permite cuestionar la validez del último criterio sin un control exhaustivo de los parámetros de su formulación, poniendo de manifiesto la necesidad de más investigaciones sobre ese criterio antes de su adopción para uso regulatorio. El conjunto de estos resultados permite obtener una serie de conclusiones en la comparativa entre ambos conjuntos de buques pesqueros. Si bien los resultados de este trabajo no muestran que la aprobación de la nueva normativa de esfuerzo pesquero haya significado una merma general de seguridad en sectores enteros de la flota pesquera, sí se concluye que permitió que algunos diseños de buques pesqueros, posiblemente en busca de la mayor eficiencia compatible con dicha normativa, quedaran con una estabilidad precaria, poniendo de manifiesto que la relación entre seguridad y criterios de estabilidad no es unívoca, y la necesidad de que éstos evolucionen y se adapten a los nuevos diseños de buques pesqueros para continuar garantizando su seguridad. También se concluye que la estabilidad es un aspecto transversal del diseño de los buques, por lo que cualquier reforma normativa que afecte al diseño de los pesqueros o su forma de operar debería estar sujeta a evaluación por parte de las autoridades responsables de la seguridad marítima con carácter previo a su aprobación. ABSTRACT Between 2004 and 2007 five small Spanish fishing vessels sank in stability related accidents. These vessels had similar characteristics, had relatively short age, and had been built in a period of a few years. Most crewmembers of these five vessels died or disappeared in those accidents. This set of accidents had significant social and media impact. Among naval architects and seamen of the fishing sector these accidents were related to the design constraints imposed by the fishing control effort regulations. The accidents were investigated and the official reports issued; this alleged relationship was not explored. This thesis aims to investigate the relationship between those accidents and changes in fishing effort control regulations. In the introduction, the fishing effort control regulation is exposed, data of the Spanish fishing fleet structure and its accident rates are presented, and stability criteria dealt with in this work are explained, detailing its relationship with fishing vessel safety. A statistical analysis of the accident rates in the fishing sector in Spain is performed afterwards. The objective is determining whether the set of accidents studied constitute an anomaly or, on the contrary, they are not statistically relevant. Fishing vessels accident rates is analyzed from several fishing vessel databases in Spain. It is concluded that the set of studied accidents is statistically relevant, as the probability of occurrence of the five happenings is extremely low, considering the loss rates in the subsector of the Spanish fishing fleet where the studied vessels are fitted within. From this point the thesis focuses in comparing the vessels lost and the vessels that were decommissioned to build them as required by the fishing effort control regulation; these vessels will be referred to as “predecessors” of the sunk vessels. The main dimensions between each lost vessel and her predecessor are compared, leading to the conclusion that the lost vessels share design characteristics which are sensibly different from the predecessors, and linking these design characteristics with the requirements imposed by the new fishing control effort regulations. This allows establishing a relationship between the accidents and this regulation change. Then the margin in fulfilling the regulatory stability criteria among the vessels is compared, resulting, in four of the five cases, that predecessors meet the stability criteria with greater clearance than the sunk vessels. The results obtained at this point would establish a relationship between the change of fishing effort control regulation and the stability of vessels. The five lost vessels complied with the stability criteria in force, so the relation between these criteria and safety is put in question. Consequently, the comparison among vessels is extended to other fields related to safety and stability: • Motions onboard (operability), and • Specific stability criteria in rough weather The operability study shows that the lost vessels had in general greater operability than their predecessors, just the opposite as when comparing stability criteria. Finally, performance under specific rough weather stability criteria is checked. The criteria studied are the IMO Weather Criterion, and one of the 2nd generation stability criteria under development by IMO considering in this last case the presence of water on deck, which is an original contribution by the author. The observed trends in these two cases are opposite, allowing to put into question the last criterion validity without an exhaustive control of its formulation parameters; indicating that further research might be necessary before using it for regulatory purposes. The analysis of this set of results leads to some conclusions when comparing both groups of fishing vessels. While the results obtained are not conclusive in the sense that the entry into force of a new fishing effort control in 1998 caused a generalized safety reduction in whole sectors of the Spanish fishing fleet, it can be concluded that it opened the door for some vessel designs resulting with precarious stability. This evidences that the relation between safety and stability criteria is not univocal, so stability criteria needs to evolve for adapting to new fishing vessels designs so their safety is still guaranteed. It is also concluded that stability is a transversal aspect to ship design and operability, implying that any legislative reform affecting ship design or operating modes should be subjected to assessing by the authorities responsible for marine safety before being adopted.

Numerical simulation of group combustion of pulverized coal

A mathematical model for the group combustion of pulverized coal particles was developed in a previous work. It includes the Lagrangian description of the dehumidification, devolatilization and char gasification reactions of the coal particles in the homogenized gaseous environment resulting from the three fuels, CO, H2 and volatiles, supplied by the gasification of the particles and their simultaneous group combustion by the gas phase oxidation reactions, which are considered to be very fast. This model is complemented here with an analysis of the particle dynamics, determined principally by the effects of aerodynamic drag and gravity, and its dispersion based on a stochastic model. It is also extended to include two other simpler models for the gasification of the particles: the first one for particles small enough to extinguish the surrounding diffusion flames, and a second one for particles with small ash content when the porous shell of ashes remaining after gasification of the char, non structurally stable, is disrupted. As an example of the applicability of the models, they are used in the numerical simulation of an experiment of a non-swirling pulverized coal jet with a nearly stagnant air at ambient temperature, with an initial region of interaction with a small annular methane flame. Computational algorithms for solving the different stages undergone by a coal particle during its combustion are proposed. For the partial differential equations modeling the gas phase, a second order finite element method combined with a semi-Lagrangian characteristics method are used. The results obtained with the three versions of the model are compared among them and show how the first of the simpler models fits better the experimental results.

Poisson dynamic models. An application to interurban accidents in Spain

In this study we apply count data models to four integer–valued time series related to accidentality in Spanish roads applying both the frequentist and Bayesian approaches. The time series are: number of fatalities, number of fatal accidents, number of killed or seriously injured (KSI) and number of accidents with KSI. The model structure is Poisson regression with first order autoregressive errors. The purpose of the paper is first to sort out the explanatory variables by relevance and second to carry out a prediction exercise for validation.