Assessment of Narrow-Body Transport Airplane Evacuation by Numerical Simulation

This paper presents the results obtained with a new agent-based computer model that can simulate the evacuation of narrow-body transport airplanes in the conditions prescribed by the airworthiness regulations for certification. The model, described in detail in a former paper, has been verified with real data of narrow-body certification demonstrations. Numerical simulations of around 20 narrow-body aircraft, representative of current designs in various market segments, show the capabilities of the model and provide relevant information on the relationship between cabin features and emergency evacuation. The longitudinal location of emergency exits seems to be even more important than their size or the overall margin with respect to the prescribed number and type of exits indicated by the airworthiness requirements

Improving probabilistic flood forecasting through a data assimilation scheme based on genetic programming

Opportunities offered by high performance computing provide a significant degree of promise in the enhancement of the performance of real-time flood forecasting systems. In this paper, a real-time framework for probabilistic flood forecasting through data assimilation is presented. The distributed rainfall-runoff real-time interactive basin simulator (RIBS) model is selected to simulate the hydrological process in the basin. Although the RIBS model is deterministic, it is run in a probabilistic way through the results of calibration developed in a previous work performed by the authors that identifies the probability distribution functions that best characterise the most relevant model parameters. Adaptive techniques improve the result of flood forecasts because the model can be adapted to observations in real time as new information is available. The new adaptive forecast model based on genetic programming as a data assimilation technique is compared with the previously developed flood forecast model based on the calibration results. Both models are probabilistic as they generate an ensemble of hydrographs, taking the different uncertainties inherent in any forecast process into account. The Manzanares River basin was selected as a case study, with the process being computationally intensive as it requires simulation of many replicas of the ensemble in real time.

Numerical simulation of tangling in jet engine turbines

The numerical analysis of certain safety related problems presents serious difficulties, since the large number of components present leads to huge finite elementmodels that can only be solved by using large and expensive computers or by making rough approaches to the problem. Tangling, or clashing, in the turbine of a jet engine airplane is an example of such problems. This is caused by the crash and friction between rotor and stator blades in the turbine after an eventual shaft failure. When facing the study of an event through numerical modelling, the accurate simulation of this problem would require the engineer to model all the rotor and stator blades existing in the turbine stage, using a small element size in all pieces. Given that the number of stator and rotor blades is usually around 200, such simulations would require millions of elements. This work presents a new numerical methodology, specifically developed for the accurate modelling of the tangling problem that, depending on the turbine configuration, is able to reduce the number of nodes up to an order of magnitude without losing accuracy. The methodology, which benefits from the cyclic configuration of turbines, is successfully applied to the numerical analysis of a hypothetical tangling event in a turbine, providing valuable data such as the rotating velocity decrease of the turbine, the braking torque and the damage suffered by the blades. The methodology is somewhat general and can be applied to any problem in which damage caused by the interaction between a rotating and static piece is to be analysed.

Evaluation of angle-dependent absorption: Computer simulation and listening test for an objective and subjective evaluation

The aim of this thesis is the subjective and objective evaluation of angledependent absorption coefficients. As the assumption of a constant absorption coefficient over the angle of incidence is not always held, a new model acknowledging an angle-dependent reflection must be considered, to get a more accurate prediction in the sound field. The study provides information about the behavior of different materials in several rooms, depending on the reflection modeling of incident sound waves. An objective evaluation was run for an implementation of angle-dependent reflection factors in the image source and ray tracing simulation models. Results obtained were analysed after comparison to diffuse-field averaged data. However, changes in acoustic characteristics of a room do not always mean a variation in the listener’s perception. Thus, additional subjective evaluation allowed a comparison between the different results obtained with the computer simulation and the response from the individuals who participated in the listening test. The listening test was designed following a three-alternative forced-choice (3AFC) paradigm. In each interaction asked to the subjects a sequence of either three pink noise bursts or three natural signals was alternated. These results were supposed to show the influence and perception of the two different ways to implement surface reflection –either with diffuse or angle-dependent absorption properties. Results show slightly audible effects when material properties were exaggerated. El objetivo de este trabajo es la evaluación objetiva y subjetiva del coeficiente de absorción en función del ángulo de incidencia de la onda de sonido. La suposición de un coeficiente de absorción constante con respecto al ángulo de incidencia no siempre se sostiene. Por ello, un nuevo modelo considerando la reflexión dependiente del ángulo se debe tener en cuenta para obtener predicciones más certeras en el campo del sonido. El estudio proporciona información sobre el comportamiento de diferentes materiales en distintos recintos, dependientes del modelo de reflexión de las ondas de sonido incidentes. Debido a las dificultades a la hora de realizar las medidas y, por lo tanto, a la falta de datos, los coeficientes de absorción dependientes del ángulo a menudo no se tienen en cuenta a la hora de realizar las simulaciones. Hoy en día, aún no hay una tendencia de aplicar el coeficiente de absorción dependiente del ángulo para mejorar los modelos de reflexión. Por otra parte, para una medición satisfactoria de la absorción dependiente del ángulo, sólo hay unos pocos métodos. Las técnicas de medición actuales llevan mucho tiempo y hay algunos materiales, condiciones y ángulos que no pueden ser reproducidos y, por lo tanto, no es posible su medición. Sin embargo, en el presente estudio, los ángulos de incidencia de las ondas de sonido son conocidos y almacenados en una de base de datos para cada uno de los materiales, de modo que los coeficientes de absorción para el ángulo dado pueden ser devueltos siempre que sean requeridos por el usuario. Para realizar el estudio se llevó a cabo una evaluación objetiva, por medio de la implementación del factor de reflexión dependiente del ángulo en los modelos de fuentes imagen y trazado de rayos. Los resultados fueron analizados después de ser comparados con el promedio de los datos obtenidos en medidas en el campo difuso. La simulación se hizo una vez se configuraron un número de materiales creados por el autor, a partir de los datos existentes en la literatura y los catálogos de fabricantes. Los modelos de Komatsu y Mechel sirvieron como referencia para los materiales porosos, configurando la resistividad al aire o el grosor, y para los paneles perforados, introduciendo el radio de los orificios y la distancia entre centros, respectivamente. Estos materiales se situaban en la pared opuesta a la que se consideraba que debía alojar a la fuente sonora. El resto de superficies se modelaban con el mismo material, variando su coeficiente de absorción y/o de dispersión. Al mismo tiempo, una serie de recintos fueron modelados para poder reproducir distintos escenarios de los que obtener los resultados. Sin embargo, los cambios en las características acústicas de un recinto no significan variaciones en la percepción por parte del oyente. Por ello, una evaluación subjetiva adicional permitió una comparación entre los diferentes resultados obtenidos mediante la simulación informática y la respuesta de los individuos que participaron en la prueba de escucha. Ésta fue diseñada bajo las pautas del modelo de test three-alternative forced-choice (3AFC), con treinta y dos preguntas diferentes. En cada iteración los sujetos fueron preguntados por una secuencia alterna entre tres señales, siendo dos de ellas iguales. Éstas podían ser tanto ráfagas de ruido rosa como señales naturales, en este test se utilizó un fragmento de una obra clásica interpretada por un piano. Antes de contestar al cuestionario, los bloques de preguntas eran ordenados al azar. Para cada ensayo, la mezcla era diferente, así los sujetos no repetían la misma prueba, evitando un sesgo por efectos de aprendizaje. Los bloques se barajaban recordando siempre el orden inicial, para después almacenar los resultados reordenados. La prueba de escucha fue realizada por veintitrés personas, toda ellas con conocimientos dentro del campo de la acústica. Antes de llevar a cabo la prueba de escucha en un entorno adecuado, una hoja con las instrucciones fue facilitada a cada persona. Los resultados muestran la influencia y percepción de las dos maneras distintas de implementar las reflexiones de una superficie –ya sea con respecto a la propiedad de difusión o de absorción dependiente del ángulo de los materiales. Los resultados objetivos, después de ejecutar las simulaciones, muestran los datos medios obtenidos para comprender el comportamiento de distintos materiales de acuerdo con el modelo de reflexión utilizado en el caso de estudio. En las tablas proporcionadas en la memoria se muestran los valores del tiempo de reverberación, la claridad y el tiempo de caída temprana. Los datos de las características del recinto obtenidos en este análisis tienen una fuerte dependencia respecto al coeficiente de absorción de los diferentes materiales que recubren las superficies del cuarto. En los resultados subjetivos, la media de percepción, a la hora de distinguir las distintas señales, por parte de los sujetos, se situó significativamente por debajo del umbral marcado por el punto de inflexión de la función psicométrica. Sin embargo, es posible concluir que la mayoría de los individuos tienden a ser capaces de detectar alguna diferencia entre los estímulos presentados en el 3AFC test. En conclusión, la hipótesis de que los valores del coeficiente de absorción dependiente del ángulo difieren es contrastada. Pero la respuesta subjetiva de los individuos muestra que únicamente hay ligeras variaciones en la percepción si el coeficiente varía en intervalos pequeños entre los valores manejados en la simulación. Además, si los parámetros de los materiales acústicos no son exagerados, los sujetos no perciben ninguna variación. Los primeros resultados obtenidos, proporcionando información respecto a la dependencia del ángulo, llevan a una nueva consideración en el campo de la acústica, y en la realización de nuevos proyectos en el futuro. Para futuras líneas de investigación, las simulaciones se deberían realizar con distintos tipos de recintos, buscando escenarios con geometrías irregulares. También, la implementación de distintos materiales para obtener resultados más certeros. Otra de las fases de los futuros proyectos puede realizarse teniendo en cuenta el coeficiente de dispersión dependiente del ángulo de incidencia de la onda de sonido. En la parte de la evaluación subjetiva, realizar una serie de pruebas de escucha con distintos individuos, incluyendo personas sin una formación relacionada con la ingeniería acústica.

Simulation-based evaluation of susceptibility distortion correction methods in diffusion MRI for connectivity analysis

Connectivity analysis on diffusion MRI data of the whole-brain suffers from distortions caused by the standard echo-planar imaging acquisition strategies. These images show characteristic geometrical deformations and signal destruction that are an important drawback limiting the success of tractography algorithms. Several retrospective correction techniques are readily available. In this work, we use a digital phantom designed for the evaluation of connectivity pipelines. We subject the phantom to a “theoretically correct” and plausible deformation that resembles the artifact under investigation. We correct data back, with three standard methodologies (namely fieldmap-based, reversed encoding-based, and registration- based). Finally, we rank the methods based on their geometrical accuracy, the dropout compensation, and their impact on the resulting connectivity matrices.

An open-source simulation tool of grid-connected PV systems.

This paper will present an open-source simulation tool, which is being developed in the frame of an European research project1. The tool, whose final version will be freely available through a website, allows the modelling and the design of different types of grid-connected PV systems, such as large grid-connected plants and building-integrated installations. The tool is based on previous software developed by the IES-UPM2, whose models and energy losses scenarios have been validated in the commissioning of PV projects3 carried out in Spain, Portugal, France and Italy, whose aggregated capacity is nearly 300MW. This link between design and commissioning is one of the key points of tool presented here, which is not usually addressed by present commercial software. The tool provides, among other simulation results, the energy yield, the analysis and breakdown of energy losses, and the estimations of financial returns adapted to the legal and financial frameworks of each European country. Besides, educational facilities will be developed and integrated in the tool, not only devoted to learn how to use this software, but also to train the users on the best design PV systems practices. The tool will also include the recommendation of several PV community experts, which have been invited to identify present necessities in the field of PV systems simulation. For example, the possibility of using meteorological forecasts as input data, or modelling the integration of large energy storage systems, such as vanadium redox or lithium-ion batteries. Finally, it is worth mentioning that during the verification and testing stages of this software development, it will be also open to the suggestions received from the different actors of the PV community, such as promoters, installers, consultants, etc.

Finite element simulation of sandwich panels of plasterboard and rock wool under mixed mode fracture

This paper presents the results of research on mixed mode fracture of sandwich panels of plasterboard and rock wool. The experimental data of the performed tests are supplied. The specimens were made from commercial panels. Asymmetrical three-point bending tests were performed on notched specimens. Three sizes of geometrically similar specimens were tested for studying the size effect. The paper also includes the numerical simulation of the experimental results by using an embedded cohesive crack model.The involved parameters for modelling are previously measured by standardised tests.

Software tool for simulation of aircraft trajectories

New concepts in air navigation have been introduced recently. Among others, are the concepts of trajectory optimization, 4D trajectories, RBT (Reference Business Trajectory), TBO (trajectory based operations), CDA (Continuous Descent Approach) and ACDA (Advanced CDA), conflict resolution, arrival time (AMAN), introduction of new aircraft (UAVs, UASs) in air space, etc. Although some of these concepts are new, the future Air Traffic Management will maintain the four ATM key performance areas such as Safety, Capacity, Efficiency, and Environmental impact. So much, the performance of the ATM system is directly related to the accuracy with which the future evolution of the traffic can be predicted. In this sense, future air traffic management will require a variety of support tools to provide suitable help to users and engineers involved in the air space management. Most of these tools are based on an appropriate trajectory prediction module as main component. Therefore, the purposes of these tools are related with testing and evaluation of any air navigation concept before they become fully operative. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview to the design of a software tool useful to estimate aircraft trajectories adapted to air navigation concepts. Other usage of the tool, like controller design, vertical navigation assessment, procedures validation and hardware and software in the loop are available in the software tool. The paper will show the process followed to design the tool, the software modules needed to perform accurately and the process followed to validate the output data.

On the simulation of the UPMSAT-2 microsatellite power

Simulation of satellite subsystems behaviour is extramely important in the design at early stages. The subsystems are normally simulated in the both ways : isolated and as part of more complex simulation that takes into account imputs from other subsystems (concurrent design). In the present work, a simple concurrent simulation of the power subsystem of a microsatellite, UPMSat-2, is described. The aim of the work is to obtain the performance profile of the system (battery charging level, power consumption by the payloads, power supply from solar panels....). Different situations such as battery critical low or high level, effects of high current charging due to the low temperature of solar panels after eclipse,DoD margins..., were analysed, and different safety strategies studied using the developed tool (simulator) to fulfil the mission requirements. Also, failure cases were analysed in order to study the robustness of the system. The mentioned simulator has been programed taking into account the power consumption performances (average and maximum consumptions per orbit/day) of small part of the subsystem (SELEX GALILEO SPVS modular generators built with Azur Space solar cells, SAFT VES16 6P4S Li-ion battery, SSBV magnetometers, TECNOBIT and DATSI/UPM On Board Data Handling -OBDH-...). The developed tool is then intended to be a modular simulator, with the chance of use any other components implementing some standard data.

How do various maize crop models vary in their responses to climate change factors?

Comments This article is a U.S. government work, and is not subject to copyright in the United States. Abstract Potential consequences of climate change on crop production can be studied using mechanistic crop simulation models. While a broad variety of maize simulation models exist, it is not known whether different models diverge on grain yield responses to changes in climatic factors, or whether they agree in their general trends related to phenology, growth, and yield. With the goal of analyzing the sensitivity of simulated yields to changes in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations [CO2], we present the largest maize crop model intercomparison to date, including 23 different models. These models were evaluated for four locations representing a wide range of maize production conditions in the world: Lusignan (France), Ames (USA), Rio Verde (Brazil) and Morogoro (Tanzania). While individual models differed considerably in absolute yield simulation at the four sites, an ensemble of a minimum number of models was able to simulate absolute yields accurately at the four sites even with low data for calibration, thus suggesting that using an ensemble of models has merit. Temperature increase had strong negative influence on modeled yield response of roughly 0.5 Mg ha 1 per °C. Doubling [CO2] from 360 to 720 lmol mol 1 increased grain yield by 7.5% on average across models and the sites. That would therefore make temperature the main factor altering maize yields at the end of this century. Furthermore, there was a large uncertainty in the yield response to [CO2] among models. Model responses to temperature and [CO2] did not differ whether models were simulated with low calibration information or, simulated with high level of calibration information.

Simulating improved combinations tillage-rotation under dryland conditions.

Crop simulation models allow analyzing various tillage-rotation combinations and exploring management scenarios. This study was conducted to test the DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer) modelling system in rainfed semiarid central Spain. The focus is on the combined effect of tillage system and winter cereal-based rotations (cereal/legume/fallow) on the crop yield and soil quality. The observed data come from a 16-year field experiment. The CERES and CROPGRO models, included in DSSAT v4.5, were used to simulate crop growth and yield, and DSSAT- CENTURY was used in the soil organic carbon (SOC) and soil nitrogen (SN) simulations. Genetic coefficients were calibrated using part of the observed data. Field observations showed that barley grain yield was lower for continuous cereal (BB) than for vetch (VB) and fallow (FB) rotations for both tillage systems. The CERES-Barley model also reflected this trend. The model predicted higher yield in the conventional tillage (CT) than in the no tillage (NT) probably due to the higher nitrogen availability in the CT, shown in the simulations. The SOC and SN in the top layer only, were higher in NT than in CT, and decreased with depth in both simulated and observed values. These results suggest that CT-VB and CT-FB were the best combinations for the dry land conditions studied. However, CT presented lower SN and SOC content than NT. This study shows how models can be a useful tool for assessing and predicting crop growth and yield, under different management systems and under specific edapho-climatic conditions. Additional key words: CENTURY model; CERES-Barley; crop simulation models; DSSAT; sequential simula- tion; soil organic carbon.

Validation of the burn-up code EVOLCODE 2.0 with PWR experimental data and with a Sensitivity/Uncertainty analysis

A validation of the burn-up simulation system EVOLCODE 2.0 is presented here, involving the experimental measurement of U and Pu isotopes and some fission fragments production ratios after a burn-up of around 30 GWd/tU in a Pressurized Light Water Reactor (PWR). This work provides an in-depth analysis of the validation results, including the possible sources of the uncertainties. An uncertainty analysis based on the sensitivity methodology has been also performed, providing the uncertainties in the isotopic content propagated from the cross sections uncertainties. An improvement of the classical Sensitivity/ Uncertainty (S/U) model has been developed to take into account the implicit dependence of the neutron flux normalization, that is, the effect of the constant power of the reactor. The improved S/U methodology, neglected in this kind of studies, has proven to be an important contribution to the explanation of some simulation-experiment discrepancies for which, in general, the cross section uncertainties are, for the most relevant actinides, an important contributor to the simulation uncertainties, of the same order of magnitude and sometimes even larger than the experimental uncertainties and the experiment- simulation differences. Additionally, some hints for the improvement of the JEFF3.1.1 fission yield library and for the correction of some errata in the experimental data are presented.

Finite element simulation of dispersion in the Bay of Santander

Two mathematical models are used to simulate pollution in the Bay of Santander. The first is the hydrodynamic model that provides the velocity field and height of the water. The second gives the pollutant concentration field as a resultant. Both models are formulated in two-dimensional equations. Linear triangular finite elements are used in the Galerkin procedure for spatial discretization. A finite difference scheme is used for the time integration. At each time step the calculated results of the first model are input to the second model as field data. The efficiency and accuracy of the models are tested by their application to a simple illustrative example. Finally a case study in simulation of pollution evolution in the Bay of Santander is presented

Metodología de simulación del almacenamiento geológico de CO2 como contribución a la solución al problema del Cambio Climático, aplicada a la estructura BG-GE-08 (oeste de la Comunidad de Murcia)

Una de las medidas de mitigación del Cambio Climático propuestas al amparo de la ONU por el IPCC (Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change) en su ‘Informe de Síntesis 2007’ consiste en la puesta en marcha de acciones para la captación y almacenamiento de dióxido de carbono, existiendo tres tipos de formaciones geológicas idóneas para el almacenamiento geológico de este gas: yacimientos de petróleo y gas agotados, capas de carbón no explotables y formaciones salinas profundas. En el caso de las formaciones salinas profundas, el problema fundamental para llevar a cabo un estudio de almacenamiento de CO2, reside en la dificultad de obtención de datos geológicos del subsuelo en una cierta estructura seleccionada, cuyas características pueden ser a priori idóneas para la inyección y almacenamiento del gas. Por este motivo la solución para poder analizar la viabilidad de un proyecto de almacenamiento en una estructura geológica pasa por la simulación numérica a partir de la modelización 3D del yacimiento. Los métodos numéricos permiten simular la inyección de un caudal determinado de dióxido de carbono desde un pozo de inyección localizado en una formación salina. En la presente tesis se ha definido una metodología de simulación de almacenamiento geológico de CO2, como contribución a la solución al problema del Cambio Climático, aplicada de forma concreta a la estructura BG-GE-08 (oeste de la Comunidad de Murcia). Esta estructura geológica ha sido catalogada por el IGME (Instituto Geológico y Minero de España) como idónea para el almacenamiento de dióxido de carbono, dada la existencia de una capa almacén confinada entre dos capas sello. ABSTRACT One of the climate change mitigation proposals suggested by the IPCC (Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change) in its ‘Synthesis Report 2007’ involves the launch of actions for capturing and storing carbon dioxide, existing three different geological structures suitable for gas storage: oil and gas reservoirs already drained, useless coal layers and deep saline structures. In case of deep saline structures, the main problem to develop a study of CO2 storage is the difficulty of obtaining geological data for some selected structure with characteristics that could be suitable for injection and gas storage. According to this situation, the solution to analyze the feasibility of a storage project in a geological structure will need numerical simulation from a 3D model. Numerical methods allow the simulation of the carbon dioxide filling in saline structures from a well, used to inject gas with a particular flow. In this document a simulation methodology has been defined for geological CO2 storage, as a contribution to solve the Climatic Change problem, applied to the structure BG-GE-08 (west of Murcia region). This geological structure has been classified by the IGME (Geological and Mining Institute of Spain) as suitable for the storage of carbon dioxide given the existence of a storage layer confined between two seal layers.

A study on the inclusion of forest canopy morphology data in numerical simulations for the purpose of wind resource assessment

A series of numerical simulations of the flow over a forest stand have been conducted using two different turbulence closure models along with various levels of canopy morphology data. Simulations have been validated against Stereoscopic Particle Image Velocimetry measurements from a wind tunnel study using one hundred architectural model trees, the porosities of which have been assessed using a photographic technique. It has been found that an accurate assessment of the porosity of the canopy, and specifically the variability with height, improves simulation quality regardless of the turbulence closure model used or the level of canopy geometry included. The observed flow field and recovery of the wake is in line with characteristic canopy flows published in the literature and it was found that the shear stress transport turbulence model was best able to capture this detail numerically.