Aerial Coverage Path Planning applied to Mapping

In the last decade we have seen how small and light weight aerial platforms - aka, Mini Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (MUAV) - shipped with heterogeneous sensors have become a 'most wanted' Remote Sensing (RS) tool. Most of the off-the-shelf aerial systems found in the market provide way-point navigation. However, they do not rely on a tool that compute the aerial trajectories considering all the aspects that allow optimizing the aerial missions. One of the most demanded RS applications of MUAV is image surveying. The images acquired are typically used to build a high-resolution image, i.e., a mosaic of the workspace surface. Although, it may be applied to any other application where a sensor-based map must be computed. This thesis provides a study of this application and a set of solutions and methods to address this kind of aerial mission by using a fleet of MUAVs. In particular, a set of algorithms are proposed for map-based sampling, and aerial coverage path planning (ACPP). Regarding to map-based sampling, the approaches proposed consider workspaces with different shapes and surface characteristics. The workspace is sampled considering the sensor characteristics and a set of mission requirements. The algorithm applies different computational geometry approaches, providing a unique way to deal with workspaces with different shape and surface characteristics in order to be surveyed by one or more MUAVs. This feature introduces a previous optimization step before path planning. After that, the ACPP problem is theorized and a set of ACPP algorithms to compute the MUAVs trajectories are proposed. The problem addressed herein is the problem to coverage a wide area by using MUAVs with limited autonomy. Therefore, the mission must be accomplished in the shortest amount of time. The aerial survey is usually subject to a set of workspace restrictions, such as the take-off and landing positions as well as a safety distance between elements of the fleet. Moreover, it has to avoid forbidden zones to y. Three different algorithms have been studied to address this problem. The approaches studied are based on graph searching, heuristic and meta-heuristic approaches, e.g., mimic, evolutionary. Finally, an extended survey of field experiments applying the previous methods, as well as the materials and methods adopted in outdoor missions is presented. The reported outcomes demonstrate that the findings attained from this thesis improve ACPP mission for mapping purpose in an efficient and safe manner.

Aerial Coverage Path Planning applied to Mapping

In the last decade we have seen how small and light weight aerial platforms - aka, Mini Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (MUAV) - shipped with heterogeneous sensors have become a 'most wanted' Remote Sensing (RS) tool. Most of the off-the-shelf aerial systems found in the market provide way-point navigation. However, they do not rely on a tool that compute the aerial trajectories considering all the aspects that allow optimizing the aerial missions. One of the most demanded RS applications of MUAV is image surveying. The images acquired are typically used to build a high-resolution image, i.e., a mosaic of the workspace surface. Although, it may be applied to any other application where a sensor-based map must be computed. This thesis provides a study of this application and a set of solutions and methods to address this kind of aerial mission by using a fleet of MUAVs. In particular, a set of algorithms are proposed for map-based sampling, and aerial coverage path planning (ACPP). Regarding to map-based sampling, the approaches proposed consider workspaces with different shapes and surface characteristics. The workspace is sampled considering the sensor characteristics and a set of mission requirements. The algorithm applies different computational geometry approaches, providing a unique way to deal with workspaces with different shape and surface characteristics in order to be surveyed by one or more MUAVs. This feature introduces a previous optimization step before path planning. After that, the ACPP problem is theorized and a set of ACPP algorithms to compute the MUAVs trajectories are proposed. The problem addressed herein is the problem to coverage a wide area by using MUAVs with limited autonomy. Therefore, the mission must be accomplished in the shortest amount of time. The aerial survey is usually subject to a set of workspace restrictions, such as the take-off and landing positions as well as a safety distance between elements of the fleet. Moreover, it has to avoid forbidden zones to y. Three different algorithms have been studied to address this problem. The approaches studied are based on graph searching, heuristic and meta-heuristic approaches, e.g., mimic, evolutionary. Finally, an extended survey of field experiments applying the previous methods, as well as the materials and methods adopted in outdoor missions is presented. The reported outcomes demonstrate that the findings attained from this thesis improve ACPP mission for mapping purpose in an efficient and safe manner.

Integration of physical, chemical and biological tactics against insect pests and virus diseases in horticultural crops

Actualmente, la gestión de sistemas de Manejo Integrado de Plagas (MIP) en cultivos hortícolas tiene por objetivo priorizar los métodos de control no químicos en detrimento del consumo de plaguicidas, según recoge la directiva europea 2009/128/CE ‘Uso Sostenible de Plaguicidas’ (OJEC, 2009). El uso de agentes de biocontrol como alternativa a la aplicación de insecticidas es un elemento clave de los sistemas MIP por sus innegables ventajas ambientales que se utiliza ampliamente en nuestro país (Jacas y Urbaneja, 2008). En la región de Almería, donde se concentra el 65% de cultivo en invernadero de nuestro país (47.367 ha), MIP es la principal estrategia en pimiento (MAGRAMA, 2014), y comienza a serlo en otros cultivos como tomate o pepino. El cultivo de pepino, con 8.902 ha (MAGRAMA, 2013), tiene un protocolo semejante al pimiento (Robledo et al., 2009), donde la única especie de pulgón importante es Aphis gossypii Glover. Sin embargo, pese al continuo incremento de la superficie de cultivo agrícola bajo sistemas MIP, los daños originados por virosis siguen siendo notables. Algunos de los insectos presentes en los cultivos de hortícolas son importantes vectores de virus, como los pulgones, las moscas blancas o los trips, cuyo control resulta problemático debido a su elevada capacidad para transmitir virus vegetales incluso a una baja densidad de plaga (Holt et al., 2008; Jacas y Urbaneja, 2008). Las relaciones que se establecen entre los distintos agentes de un ecosistema son complejas y muy específicas. Se ha comprobado que, pese a que los enemigos naturales reducen de manera beneficiosa los niveles de plaga, su incorporación en los sistemas planta-insecto-virus puede desencadenar complicadas interacciones con efectos no deseables (Dicke y van Loon, 2000; Jeger et al., 2011). Así, los agentes de biocontrol también pueden inducir a que los insectos vectores modifiquen su comportamiento como respuesta al ataque y, con ello, el grado de dispersión y los patrones de distribución de las virosis que transmiten (Bailey et al., 1995; Weber et al., 1996; Hodge y Powell, 2008a; Hodge et al., 2011). Además, en ocasiones el control biológico por sí solo no es suficiente para controlar determinadas plagas (Medina et al., 2008). Entre los métodos que se pueden aplicar bajo sistemas MIP están las barreras físicas que limitan la entrada de plagas al interior de los invernaderos o interfieren con su movimiento, como pueden ser las mallas anti-insecto (Álvarez et al., 2014), las mallas fotoselectivas (Raviv y Antignus, 2004; Weintraub y Berlinger, 2004; Díaz y Fereres, 2007) y las mallas impregnadas en insecticida (Licciardi et al., 2008; Martin et al., 2014). Las mallas fotoselectivas reducen o bloquean casi por completo la transmisión de radiación UV, lo que interfiere con la visión de los insectos y dificulta o impide la localización del cultivo y su establecimiento en el mismo (Raviv y Antignus, 2004; Weintraub, 2009). Se ha comprobado cómo su uso puede controlar los pulgones y las virosis en cultivo de lechuga (Díaz et al., 2006; Legarrea et al., 2012a), así como la mosca blanca, los trips y los ácaros, y los virus que estos transmiten en otros cultivos (Costa y Robb, 1999; Antignus et al., 2001; Kumar y Poehling, 2006; Doukas y Payne, 2007a; Legarrea et al., 2010). Sin embargo, no se conoce perfectamente el modo de acción de estas barreras, puesto que existe un efecto directo sobre la plaga y otro indirecto mediado por la planta, cuya fisiología cambia al desarrollarse en ambientes con falta de radiación UV, y que podría afectar al ciclo biológico de los insectos fitófagos (Vänninen et al., 2010; Johansen et al., 2011). Del mismo modo, es necesario estudiar la compatibilidad de esta estrategia con los enemigos naturales de las plagas. Hasta la fecha, los estudios han evidenciado que los agentes de biocontrol pueden realizar su actividad bajo ambientes pobres en radiación UV (Chyzik et al., 2003; Chiel et al., 2006; Doukas y Payne, 2007b; Legarrea et al., 2012c). Otro método basado en barreras físicas son las mallas impregnadas con insecticidas, que se han usado tradicionalmente en la prevención de enfermedades humanas transmitidas por mosquitos (Martin et al., 2006). Su aplicación se ha ensayado en agricultura en ciertos cultivos al aire libre (Martin et al., 2010; Díaz et al., 2004), pero su utilidad en cultivos protegidos para prevenir la entrada de insectos vectores en invernadero todavía no ha sido investigada. Los aditivos se incorporan al tejido durante el proceso de extrusión de la fibra y se liberan lentamente actuando por contacto en el momento en que el insecto aterriza sobre la malla, con lo cual el riesgo medioambiental y para la salud humana es muy limitado. Los plaguicidas que se emplean habitualmente suelen ser piretroides (deltametrina o bifentrín), aunque también se ha ensayado dicofol (Martin et al., 2010) y alfa-cipermetrina (Martin et al., 2014). Un factor que resulta de vital importancia en este tipo de mallas es el tamaño del poro para facilitar una buena ventilación del cultivo, al tiempo que se evita la entrada de insectos de pequeño tamaño como las moscas blancas (Bethke y Paine, 1991; Muñoz et al., 1999). Asimismo, se plantea la necesidad de estudiar la compatibilidad de estas mallas con los enemigos naturales. Es por ello que en esta Tesis Doctoral se plantea la necesidad de evaluar nuevas mallas impregnadas que impidan el paso de insectos de pequeño tamaño al interior de los invernaderos, pero que a su vez mantengan un buen intercambio y circulación de aire a través del poro de la malla. Así, en la presente Tesis Doctoral, se han planteado los siguientes objetivos generales a desarrollar: 1. Estudiar el impacto de la presencia de parasitoides sobre el grado de dispersión y los patrones de distribución de pulgones y las virosis que éstos transmiten. 2. Conocer el efecto directo de ambientes pobres en radiación UV sobre el comportamiento de vuelo de plagas clave de hortícolas y sus enemigos naturales. 3. Evaluar el efecto directo de la radiación UV-A sobre el crecimiento poblacional de pulgones y mosca blanca, y sobre la fisiología de sus plantas hospederas, así como el efecto indirecto de la radiación UV-A en ambas plagas mediado por el crecimiento de dichas planta hospederas. 4. Caracterización de diversas mallas impregnadas en deltametrina y bifentrín con diferentes propiedades y selección de las óptimas para el control de pulgones, mosca blanca y sus virosis asociadas en condiciones de campo. Estudio de su compatibilidad con parasitoides. ABSTRACT Insect vectors of plant viruses are the main agents causing major economic losses in vegetable crops grown under protected environments. This Thesis focuses on the implementation of new alternatives to chemical control of insect vectors under Integrated Pest Management programs. In Spain, biological control is the main pest control strategy used in a large part of greenhouses where horticultural crops are grown. The first study aimed to increase our knowledge on how the presence of natural enemies such as Aphidius colemani Viereck may alter the dispersal of the aphid vector Aphis gossypii Glover (Chapter 4). In addition, it was investigated if the presence of this parasitoid affected the spread of aphid-transmitted viruses Cucumber mosaic virus (CMV, Cucumovirus) and Cucurbit aphid-borne yellows virus (CABYV, Polerovirus) infecting cucumber (Cucumis sativus L). SADIE methodology was used to study the distribution patterns of both the virus and its vector, and their degree of association. Results suggested that parasitoids promoted aphid dispersal in the short term, which enhanced CMV spread, though consequences of parasitism suggested potential benefits for disease control in the long term. Furthermore, A. colemani significantly limited the spread and incidence of the persistent virus CABYV in the long term. The flight activity of pests Myzus persicae (Sulzer), Bemisia tabaci (Gennadius) and Tuta absoluta (Meyrick), and natural enemies A. colemani and Sphaerophoria rueppellii (Weidemann) under UV-deficient environments was studied under field conditions (Chapter 5). One-chamber tunnels were covered with cladding materials with different UV transmittance properties. Inside each tunnel, insects were released from tubes placed in a platform suspended from the ceiling. Specific targets were located at different distances from the platform. The ability of aphids and whiteflies to reach their targets was diminished under UV-absorbing barriers, suggesting a reduction of vector activity under this type of nets. Fewer aphids reached distant traps under UV-absorbing nets, and significantly more aphids could fly to the end of the tunnels covered with non-UV blocking materials. Unlike aphids, differences in B. tabaci captures were mainly found in the closest targets. The oviposition of lepidopteran T. absoluta was also negatively affected by a UV-absorbing cover. The photoselective barriers were compatible with parasitism and oviposition of biocontrol agents. Apart from the direct response of insects to UV radiation, plant-mediated effects influencing insect performance were investigated (Chapter 6). The impact of UV-A radiation on the performance of aphid M. persicae and whitefly B. tabaci, and growth and leaf physiology of host plants pepper and eggplant was studied under glasshouse conditions. Plants were grown inside cages covered by transparent and UV-A-opaque plastic films. Plant growth and insect fitness were monitored. Leaves were harvested for chemical analysis. Pepper plants responded directly to UV-A by producing shorter stems whilst UV-A did not affect the leaf area of either species. UV-A-treated peppers had higher content of secondary metabolites, soluble carbohydrates, free amino acids and proteins. Such changes in tissue chemistry indirectly promoted aphid performance. For eggplants, chlorophyll and carotenoid levels decreased with supplemental UVA but phenolics were not affected. Exposure to supplemental UV-A had a detrimental effect on whitefly development, fecundity and fertility presumably not mediated by plant cues, as compounds implied in pest nutrition were unaltered. Lastly, the efficacy of a wide range of Long Lasting Insecticide Treated Nets (LLITNs) was studied under laboratory and field conditions. This strategy aimed to prevent aphids and whiteflies to enter the greenhouse by determining the optimum mesh size (Chapter 7). This new approach is based on slow release deltamethrin- and bifenthrin-treated nets with large hole sizes that allow improved ventilation of greenhouses. All LLITNs produced high mortality of M. persicae and A. gossypii although their efficacy decreased over time with sun exposure. It was necessary a net with hole size of 0.29 mm2 to exclude B. tabaci under laboratory conditions. The feasibility of two selected nets was studied in the field under a high insect infestation pressure in the presence of CMV- and CABYV-infected cucumber plants. Besides, the compatibility of parasitoid A. colemani with bifenthrin-treated nets was studied in parallel field experiments. Both nets effectively blocked the invasion of aphids and reduced the incidence of both viruses, however they failed to exclude whiteflies. We found that our LLITNs were compatible with parasitoid A. colemani. As shown, the role of natural enemies has to be taken into account regarding the dispersal of insect vectors and subsequent spread of plant viruses. The additional benefits of novel physicochemical barriers, such as photoselective and insecticide-impregnated nets, need to be considered in Integrated Pest Management programs of vegetable crops grown under protected environments.

Soil moisture content determines the effect of the urease inhibitor NBPT on N2O emissions

Among the mitigation strategies to prevent nitrogen (N) losses from ureic fertilizers, urease inhibitors (UIs) have been demonstrated to promote high N use efficiency by reducing ammonia (NH3) volatilization. In the last few years, some field experiments have also shown its effectiveness in reducing nitrous oxide (N2O) losses from fertilized soils under conditions of low soil moisture. An incubation experiment was carried out with the aim of assessing the main biotic mechanisms behind N2O emissions once that the UIs N-(n-butyl) thiophosphoric triamid (NBPT) and phenil phosphorodiamidate (PPDA) were applied with Urea (U) under different soil moisture conditions (40, 60 and 80 % water-filled pore space, WFPS). In the same study we tried to analyze to what extent soil WFPS regulates the effect of these inhibitors on N2O emissions. The use of PPDA in our study allowed us to compare the effect of NBPT with that of another commercially available urease inhibitor, aiming to see if the results were inhibitor-specific or not. Based on the results from this experiment, a WFPS (i.e. 60 %) was chosen for a second study (i.e. mesocosm experiment) aiming to assess the efficiency of the UIs to indirectly affect N2O emissions through influencing the pool of soil mineral N. The N2O emissions at 40 % WFPS were almost negligible, being significantly lower from all fertilized treatments than that produced at 60 and 80 % WFPS. When compared to U alone, NBPT+U reduced the N2O emissions at 60 % WFPS but had no effect at 80 % WFPS. The application of PPDA significantly increased the emissions with respect to U at 80 % WFPS whereas no significant effect was found at 60 %. At 80 % WFPS, denitrification was the main source of N2O emissions for all treatments. In the mesocosm study, the application of NBPT+U was an effective strategy to reduce N2O emissions (75 % reduction compared to U alone), due to a lower soil ammonium (NH4 +) content induced by the inhibitor. These results suggest that adequate management of the UI NBPT could provide, under certain soil conditions, an opportunity for mitigation of N2O emissions from fertilized soils.

Comparison of micrometeorological techinques for estimating ammonia emission from covered slurry storage and land spreading of cattle slurry

The micrometeorological mass-balance integrated horizontal flux (IHF) technique has been commonly employed for measuring ammonia (NH3) emissions inon-field experiments. However, the inverse-dispersion modeling technique, such as the backward Lagrangian stochastic (bLS) modeling approach, is currently highlighted as offering flexibility in plot design and requiring a minimum number of samplers (Ro et al., 2013). The objective of this study was to make a comparison between the bLS technique with the IHF technique for estimating NH3 emission from flexible bag storage and following landspreading of dairy cattle slurry. Moreover, considering that NH3 emission in storage could have been non uniform, the effect on bLS estimates of a single point and multiple downwind concentration measurements was tested, as proposed by Sanz et al. (2010).

Characterisation of the operation & maintenance phase in PV rural electrification programmes

Con 1.300 millones de personas en el mundo sin acceso a la electricidad (la mayoría en entornos rurales de países empobrecidos), la energía solar fotovoltaica constituye una solución viable técnica y económicamente para electrificar las zonas más remotas del planeta donde las redes eléctricas convencionales no llegan. Casi todos los países en el mundo han desarrollado algún tipo de programa de electrificación fotovoltaica rural durante los últimos 40 años, principalmente los países más pobres, donde a través de diferentes modelos de financiación, se han instalado millones de sistemas solares domiciliarios (pequeños sistemas fotovoltaicos para uso doméstico). Durante este largo período, se han ido superando muchas barreras, como la mejora de la calidad de los sistemas fotovoltaicos, la reducción de costes, la optimización del diseño y del dimensionado de los sistemas, la disponibilidad financiera para implantar programas de electrificación rural, etc. Gracias a esto, la electrificación rural descentralizada ha experimentado recientemente un salto de escala caracterizada por la implantación de grandes programas con miles de sistemas solares domiciliarios e integrando largos períodos de mantenimiento. Muchos de estos grandes programas se están llevando a cabo con limitado éxito, ya que generalmente parten de supuestos e hipótesis poco contrastadas con la realidad, comprometiendo así un retorno económico que permita el desarrollo de esta actividad a largo plazo. En este escenario surge un nuevo reto: el de cómo garantizar la sostenibilidad de los grandes programas de electrificación rural fotovoltaica. Se argumenta que la principal causa de esta falta de rentabilidad es el imprevisto alto coste de la fase de operación y mantenimiento. Cuestiones clave tales como la estructura de costes de operación y mantenimiento o la fiabilidad de los componentes del sistema fotovoltaico no están bien caracterizados hoy en día. Esta situación limita la capacidad de diseñar estructuras de mantenimiento capaces de asegurar la sostenibilidad y la rentabilidad del servicio de operación y mantenimiento en estos programas. Esta tesis doctoral tiene como objetivo responder a estas cuestiones. Se ha realizado varios estudios sobre la base de un gran programa de electrificación rural fotovoltaica real llevado a cabo en Marruecos con más de 13.000 sistemas solares domiciliarios instalados. Sobre la base de este programa se ha hecho una evaluación en profundidad de la fiabilidad de los sistemas solares a partir de los datos de mantenimiento recogidos durante 5 años con más de 80.000 inputs. Los resultados han permitido establecer las funciones de fiabilidad de los equipos tal y como se comportan en condiciones reales de operación, las tasas de fallos y los tiempos medios hasta el fallo para los principales componentes del sistema, siendo este el primer caso de divulgación de resultados de este tipo en el campo de la electrificación rural fotovoltaica. Los dos principales componentes del sistema solar domiciliario, la batería y el módulo fotovoltaico, han sido analizados en campo a través de una muestra de 41 sistemas trabajando en condiciones reales pertenecientes al programa solar marroquí. Por un lado se ha estudiado la degradación de la capacidad de las baterías y por otro la degradación de potencia de los módulos fotovoltaicos. En el caso de las baterías, los resultados nos han permitido caracterizar la curva de degradación en capacidad llegando a obtener una propuesta de nueva definición del umbral de vida útil de las baterías en electrificación rural. También sobre la base del programa solar de Marruecos se ha llevado a cabo un estudio de caracterización de los costes reales de operación y mantenimiento a partir de la base de datos de contabilidad del programa registrados durante 5 años. Los resultados del estudio han permitido definir cuáles son costes que más incidencia tienen en el coste global. Se han obtenido los costes unitarios por sistema instalado y se han calculado los montantes de las cuotas de mantenimiento de los usuarios para garantizar la rentabilidad de la operación y mantenimiento. Finalmente, se propone un modelo de optimización matemática para diseñar estructuras de mantenimiento basado en los resultados de los estudios anteriores. La herramienta, elaborada mediante programación lineal entera mixta, se ha aplicado al programa marroquí con el fin de validar el modelo propuesto. ABSTRACT With 1,300 million people worldwide deprived of access to electricity (mostly in rural environments), photovoltaic solar energy has proven to be a cost‐effective solution and the only hope for electrifying the most remote inhabitants of the planet, where conventional electric grids do not reach because they are unaffordable. Almost all countries in the world have had some kind of rural photovoltaic electrification programme during the past 40 years, mainly the poorer countries, where through different organizational models, millions of solar home systems (small photovoltaic systems for domestic use) have been installed. During this long period, many barriers have been overcome, such as quality enhancement, cost reduction, the optimization of designing and sizing, financial availability, etc. Thanks to this, decentralized rural electrification has recently experienced a change of scale characterized by new programmes with thousands of solar home systems and long maintenance periods. Many of these large programmes are being developed with limited success, as they have generally been based on assumptions that do not correspond to reality, compromising the economic return that allows long term activity. In this scenario a new challenge emerges, which approaches the sustainability of large programmes. It is argued that the main cause of unprofitability is the unexpected high cost of the operation and maintenance of the solar systems. In fact, the lack of a paradigm in decentralized rural services has led to many private companies to carry out decentralized electrification programmes blindly. Issues such as the operation and maintenance cost structure or the reliability of the solar home system components have still not been characterized. This situation does not allow optimized maintenance structure to be designed to assure the sustainability and profitability of the operation and maintenance service. This PhD thesis aims to respond to these needs. Several studies have been carried out based on a real and large photovoltaic rural electrification programme carried out in Morocco with more than 13,000 solar home systems. An in‐depth reliability assessment has been made from a 5‐year maintenance database with more than 80,000 maintenance inputs. The results have allowed us to establish the real reliability functions, the failure rate and the main time to failure of the main components of the system, reporting these findings for the first time in the field of rural electrification. Both in‐field experiments on the capacity degradation of batteries and power degradation of photovoltaic modules have been carried out. During the experiments both samples of batteries and modules were operating under real conditions integrated into the solar home systems of the Moroccan programme. In the case of the batteries, the results have enabled us to obtain a proposal of definition of death of batteries in rural electrification. A cost assessment of the Moroccan experience based on a 5‐year accounting database has been carried out to characterize the cost structure of the programme. The results have allowed the major costs of the photovoltaic electrification to be defined. The overall cost ratio per installed system has been calculated together with the necessary fees that users would have to pay to make the operation and maintenance affordable. Finally, a mathematical optimization model has been proposed to design maintenance structures based on the previous study results. The tool has been applied to the Moroccan programme with the aim of validating the model.

Control of insect vectors and plant viruses in protected crops by novel pyrethroid-treated nets

Long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLITNs) constitute a novel alternative that combines physical and chemical tactics to prevent insect access and the spread of insect-transmitted plant viruses in protected enclosures. This approach is based on a slow-release insecticide-treated net with large hole sizes that allow improved ventilation of greenhouses. The efficacy of a wide range of LLITNs was tested under laboratory conditions against Myzus persicae, Aphis gossypii and Bemisia tabaci. Two nets were selected for field tests under a high insect infestation pressure in the presence of plants infected with Cucumber mosaic virus and Cucurbit aphid-borne yellows virus. The efficacy of Aphidius colemani, a parasitoid commonly used for biological control of aphids, was studied in parallel field experiments.

Investigación de métodos de recuperación secundaria en yacimientos kársticos complejos en presencia de acuífero activo infinito

El yacimiento Casablanca es un campo petrolífero maduro en etapa de agotamiento considerado como el más grande del mar Mediterráneo. Lleva en explotación desde 1977 y tiene una producción acumulada de 22.6 MMm3 de petróleo. La formación productiva consiste en carbonatos karstificados del Grupo Basal Terciario y del Mesozoico. El mecanismo de drenaje identificado es por empuje de agua de un gran acuífero activo considerado como infinito ya que ha mantenido la presión al 95% de la original después de casi 40 años de producción. En el año 1999, los pozos asociados al campo Casablanca producían unos 500 m3/d de agua que era tratada y vertida al mar. Para cumplir con las leyes medio ambientales de la época, se convirtió el pozo Casablanca-9 en pozo sumidero con el objetivo de devolver a la formación toda el agua producida de una manera segura, limpia y totalmente respetuosa con el medio ambiente. Años después se observó que ésta inyección no era inocua, sino que tenía un impacto en la producción de petróleo. En la presente tesis se ha definido una metodología que, mediante la experimentación en campo con trazadores, pruebe la existencia de comunicación entre pozos productores y pozos sumidero, rompiendo así el paradigma instaurado en el campo que reza que no es posible la recuperación mejorada mediante inyección de agua en Casablanca debido al gran acuífero existente. Los resultados obtenidos serán el punto de partida para la construcción de un modelo de simulación que permita verificar que es posible la aplicación de técnicas IOR/EOR, y más concretamente la recuperación mejorada mediante inyección de agua en presencia de un acuífero activo infinito. ABSTRACT Casablanca is a brown field in the decline stage and is considered as the largest field in the Mediterranean Sea. It has been on production since 1977 and the cumulative production is 22.6 MMm3 of oil. The productive reservoir formation consists on complex karstified carbonates from Basal Tertiary Group and Mesozoic. The drive mechanism identified is water drive by a large aquifer considered as infinite acting due to the pressure maintenance at 95% of the original after near 40 years of production. In 1999, the wells associated to Casablanca field produced about 500 m3/d of water that was treated and disposed to the sea. In order to comply with the environmental laws at that time, Casablanca-9 was converted from producer to water disposal well with the objective to dispose all the water back to the formation in a safe, clean and environmental fully respectful way. Years later, it was observed that injection was not innocuous, but had an impact on oil production. The methodology defined in this thesis will demonstrate the existence of communication between producers and disposal wells through field experiments with tracers, breaking the paradigm established in the field that says it is not possible to apply waterflooding techniques in Casablanca due to the existence of a strong infinite acting aquifer. The results obtained will be the starting point in order to build a simulation model able to demonstrate that the application of IOR / EOR techniques are suitable, more specifically water flooding techniques in presence of an infinite active aquifer.

Compatibilidad de Eretmocerus mundus Mercet (Hymenoptera: Aphelinidae) y Amblyseius swirskii Athias-Henriot (Acari: Phytoseiidae), importantes enemigos naturales de la mosca blanca Bemisia tabaci (Gennadius) (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae) en cultivos hortícolas, con nuevas barreras físicas selectivas y modernos plaguicidas

Los programas de Gestión Integrada de Plagas (GIP) promueven el uso de estrategias de control que sean respetuosas con el medio ambiente, sin embargo el uso de insecticidas en los cultivos hortícolas sigue siendo necesario para el control de determinadas plagas, como es el caso de la mosca blanca Bemisia tabaci (Gennadius). Por ello, el objetivo de esta tesis es el estudio de la integración de las tres estrategias de control más empleadas hoy en día para el control de plagas: el control biológico, el físico y el químico. Una primera parte de este trabajo ha consistido en el estudio de los efectos letales y subletales de once insecticidas, aplicados a la dosis máxima de campo, sobre los enemigos naturales Eretmocerus mundus Mercet y Amblyseius swirskii Athias-Henriot, mediante ensayos de laboratorio y persistencia (laboratorio extendido). Para la evaluación de la toxicidad de los insecticidas sobre los estados de vida más protegidos de estos enemigos naturales, se trataron bajo la Torre de Potter las pupas de E. mundus y los huevos de A. swirskii. Además, se llevaron a cabo ensayos de contacto residual para determinar los efectos letales y subletales de estos insecticidas sobre el estado adulto de ambas especies de enemigos naturales. Para ello, los pesticidas se aplicaron sobre placas de cristal (laboratorio) o sobre plantas (laboratorio extendido: persistencia). Los resultados mostraron que los insecticidas flonicamida, flubendiamida, metaflumizona, metoxifenocida, spiromesifen y spirotetramat eran compatibles con el estado de pupa de E. mundus (OILB 1: Inocuos). Sin embargo, abamectina, deltametrina y emamectina fueron categorizadas como ligeramente tóxicas (OILB 2) al causar efectos deletéreos. Los dos pesticidas más tóxicos fueron spinosad y sulfoxaflor, los cuales redujeron significativamente la emergencia de las pupas tratadas (OILB 4: Tóxicos). Flonicamida, flubendiamida, metoxifenocida y spiromesifen fueron compatibles con el estado adulto de E. mundus (OILB 1: Inocuos). Abamectina, deltametrina, emamectina, metaflumizona y spiromesifen pueden ser recomendados para su uso en programas de GIP, si se usan los plazos de seguridad apropiados, de acuerdo con la persistencia de cada uno de estos insecticidas, antes de la liberación del enemigo natural. Al contrario, spinosad y sulfoxaflor no resultaron ser compatibles (OILB D: Persistentes), aunque la realización de ensayos adicionales es necesaria para ver los efectos de los mismos en campo. Todos los insecticidas estudiados, excepto el spirotetramat (OILB 2: Ligeramente tóxico), fueron selectivos para el estado de huevo de A. swirskii (OILB 1: Inocuos). Flonicamida, flubendiamida, metaflumizona, metoxifenocida, spiromesifen, spirotetramat y sulfoxaflor, fueron compatibles con el estado adulto de A. swirskii (OILB 1: Inocuos). Abamectina, deltametrina, emamectina y spinosad pueden ser recomendados para su uso en programas de GIP, si se usan los plazos de seguridad apropiados, de acuerdo con la persistencia de cada uno de estos insecticidas, antes de la liberación del enemigo natural. Entre las nuevas estrategias de la GIP, los plásticos y mallas fotoselectivas han demostrado ser una herramienta importante para el control de plagas y enfermedades en cultivos hortícolas protegidos. Por ello, en una segunda parte de este trabajo, se estudiaron tanto los efectos directos, como la combinación de efectos directos y mediados por planta y plaga de ambientes pobres en luz UV, en presencia o ausencia del Virus del rizado amarillo del tomate (TYLCV), sobre E. mundus. En primer lugar, se realizó un ensayo al aire libre para la evaluación de la capacidad de vuelo de E. mundus en cajas tipo túnel (1 x 0,6 x 0,6 m) cubiertas con distintas barreras absorbentes de luz UV. Se detectó un efecto directo en la capacidad de orientación de E. mundus, debido a que este parasitoide utiliza estímulos visuales para localizar a sus huéspedes, únicamente en las barreras que bloqueaban más del 65% de la luz UV (malla G). En segundo lugar, bajo condiciones de invernadero, se evaluó la combinación de efectos directos y mediados por planta y plaga sobre E. mundus, usando plantas de tomate sanas o infectadas con el TYLCV y cajas (30 x 30 x 60 cm) cubiertas con los distintos plásticos fotoselectivos. En este caso, no se observó ningún efecto en la capacidad benéfica del parasitoide cuando este estaba en contacto con plantas de tomate infestadas con ninfas de B. tabaci, lo que demuestra que este insecto usa estímulos táctiles para encontrar a sus huéspedes a cortas distancias. Además, las diferentes condiciones de radiación UV estudiadas tuvieron cierto impacto en la morfología, fisiología y bioquímica de las plantas de tomate, infestadas o no con el virus de la cuchara, detectándose pequeñas alteraciones en alguno de los parámetros estudiados, como el peso fresco y seco, el contenido en H y el espesor de las cutículas y de las paredes celulares de la epidermis foliar. Por último, no se observaron efectos de la radiación UV mediados por planta, ni en B. tabaci ni en su parasitoide, E. mundus. En una tercera parte, se evaluaron los efectos de una malla tratada con bifentrin sobre ambos enemigos naturales, en ensayos de laboratorio, semicampo y campo. Las mallas tratadas fueron diseñadas originariamente para el control de mosquitos vectores de la malaria, y actualmente se está trabajando para su uso en agricultura, como una nueva estrategia de control de plagas. En ensayos de laboratorio, cuando adultos de E. mundus y A. swirskii se expusieron por contacto durante 72 horas con la malla tratada (cajas de 6 cm diámetro), se registró una alta mortalidad. Sin embargo, en el ensayo de preferencia, estos enemigos naturales no fueron capaces de detectar la presencia de bifentrin y, en aquellos individuos forzados a atravesar la malla tratada, no se observó mortalidad a corto plazo (72 horas). En estudios de semicampo, llevados a cabo bajo condiciones de invernadero en cajas de 25 x 25 x 60 cm de altura, la capacidad benéfica de E. mundus no se vio afectada. Finalmente, en ensayos de campo llevados a cabo en invernaderos comerciales (4000m2) en Almería, A. swirskii no se vio afectado por la presencia en el cultivo de la malla tratada con bifentrin y los niveles de infestación de B. tabaci y F. occidentalis detectados bajo dicha malla, fueron inferiores a los del control. Por último, se ha evaluado la composición de la microflora bacteriana de tres especies de parasitoides, E. mundus, Eretmocerus eremicus Rose & Zolnerowich y Encarsia formosa Gahan, y la influencia de la misma en su susceptibilidad a insecticidas. Se llevó a cabo una extracción total de ADN de los insectos y la región variable V4 del ARNr se amplificó usando cebadores universales bacterianos. Para identificar las secuencias de los géneros bacterianos presentes en los parasitoides, se realizó una Next Generation sequencing (Illumina sequencing). Una vez identificados los géneros bacterianos, el gen ADNr 16S de las Actinobacterias se amplificó del ADN extraído de los insectos, usando cebadores universales bacterianos y específicos de Actinobacterias, y los productos de la Nested PCR fueron clonados para identificar todas las especies del género Arthrobacter. Tres bacterias (A. aurescens Phillips, A. nicotinovarans Kodama, Yamamoto, Amano and Amichi y A. uratoxydans Stackebrandt, Fowler, Fiedler and Seiler), próximas a las especies de Arthrobacter presentes en los parasitoides, se obtuvieron de la colección bacteriana del BCCMTM/LMG y se midió su actividad esterasa. Finalmente, se realizaron ensayos con antibióticos (tetraciclina) y de contacto residual con insecticidas (abamectina) para determinar la influencia de las especies de Arthrobacter en la susceptibilidad de E. mundus a insecticidas. Los resultados muestran que este género bacteriano puede afectar a la toxicidad de E. mundus a abamectina, mostrando la importancia de la comunidad microbiana en enemigos naturales, factor que debe ser considerado en los estudios de evaluación de los riesgos de los insecticidas. ABSTRACT Integrated Pest Management (IPM) programs promote the use of control strategies more respectful with the environment; however the use of insecticides in vegetable crops is still needed to control certain pests, such as the whitefly Bemisia tabaci (Gennadius). Therefore, the objective of this work is to study the integration of the three most commonly used pest control strategies nowadays: biological, physical and chemical control. Firstly, the lethal and sublethal effects of eleven insecticides, applied at their maximum field recommended concentration, on the parasitic wasp Eretmocerus mundus Mercet and the predator Amblyseius swirskii Athias-Henriot has been assessed in the laboratory and in persistence tests (extended laboratory). To test the effects of pesticides on the most protected life stage of these natural enemies, E. mundus pupae and A. swirskii eggs were sprayed under a Potter precision spray tower. Laboratory contact tests were therefore conducted to determine the lethal and sublethal effects of these pesticides on the adult stage of these natural enemies. In the residual contact tests the pesticides were applied on glass plates (laboratory) or plants (extended laboratory: persistence). The study showed that the insecticides flonicamid, flubendiamide, metaflumizone, methoxyfenozide, spiromesifen and spirotetramat were selective for E. mundus pupae (IOBC 1: Harmless). Nevertheless, abamectin, deltamethrin and emamectin were categorized as slightly harmful (IOBC 2) due to the deleterious effects caused. The two most harmful pesticides were spinosad and sulfoxaflor, which significantly reduced the adult emergence from treated pupae (IOBC 4: Harmful). Flonicamid, flubendiamide, methoxyfenozide and spiromesifen were compatible with E. mundus adults (IOBC 1: Harmless). Base on the duration of the harmful activity, abamectin, deltamethrin, emamectin, metaflumizone and spirotetramat could be recommended for use in IPM programs if appropriate safety deadlines are used before the natural enemy release. On the contrary, spinosad and sulfoxaflor were not compatible (IOBC D: persistent), although additional studies are required to determine their effects under field conditions. All the pesticides tested, except spirotetramat (IOBC 2: Slightly harmful), were selective for A. swirskii eggs (IOBC 1: Harmless). Flonicamid, flubendiamide, metaflumizone, methoxyfenozide, spiromesifen, spirotetramat and sulfoxaflor were compatible with A. swirskii adults (IOBC 1: Harmless). However, abamectin, deltamethrin, emamectin and spinosad could be recommended for use in IPM programs if appropriate safety deadlines are used before the natural enemy release. Among new IPM strategies, UV-absorbing photoselective plastic films and nets have been shown to be an important tool for the control of pests and diseases in horticultural protected crops. Because of that, we secondly studied the plant and pest insect-mediated and/or the direct effects on E. mundus under different UV radiation conditions, in presence or absence of the Tomato Yellow Leaf Curl Virus (TYLCV). In the first experiment, performed outdoors, the flight activity of E. mundus was studied in one-chamber tunnels (1 x 0.6 x 0.6 m) covered with different photoselective barriers. Because E. mundus uses visual cues for host location at a long distance, a direct effect on its host location ability was detected, but only in the UV-absorbing barriers blocking more than 65% of the UV light (G net). In a second experiment, the direct and plant and pest insect-mediated effects of different UV radiation conditions on E. mundus were studied, inside cages (30 x 30 x 60 cm) covered with the different UVplastic films and under greenhouse conditions, using healthy or TYLCV-virus infected tomato plants. In this case, not any effect on the beneficial capacity of this parasitoid was detected, proving that he uses tactile cues at a short distance of the host. Moreover, the different UV radiation conditions studied had a certain direct impact in the morphology, physiology and biochemistry of tomato plants infested or not with the TYLCV, and small alterations in some parameters such as fresh and dry weight, H percentage and cuticle and cell wall thickness of epidermal cells of the leaves, were detected. Finally, none plant-mediated UV effects neither in the whitefly B. tabaci nor in their parasitic wasp were found. Thirdly, the effects of a bifenthrin treated net were evaluated in different laboratory, semi-field and field experiments on the natural enemies studied. Treated nets were developed long time ago aiming at the control of the mosquitoes vectors of malaria, and nowadays, there is a great interest on assessing the possibility of their use in agriculture. In laboratory assays, a high mortality was recorded when E. mundus and A. swirskii adults were exposed by contact to the bifenthrin treated net for 72 hours in small cages (12 cm diameter). However, these natural enemies were not able to detect the presence of bifenthrin in a dual-choice test and no short-term mortality (72 hours) was recorded in those individuals that went through the treated net. In semi-field assays, performed under greenhouse conditions with cages of 25 x 25 x 60 cm high, the beneficial capacity of E. mundus was not affected. Finally, in field assays carried out in commercial multispan greenhouses (4000 m2) in Almería, A. swirskii was not affected by the presence of the bifenthrin treated net in the crop and the B. tabaci and F. occidentalis infestation levels were significantly lower than in the control. Finally, the composition of the microflora present in three species of parasitoids, E. mundus, Eretmocerus eremicus Rose & Zolnerowich and Encarsia formosa Gahan, and its influence in their susceptibility to insecticides, have been assessed. A total DNA extraction was performed on insects and universal bacterial primers were used to amplify the variable V4 region of the rRNA. A Next Generation sequencing (Illumina sequencing) was performed to identify the sequences of the bacterial genera present in the parasitic wasps. Once, the bacterial genera were identified, 16S rDNA gene of Actinobacteria were amplified from insects DNA extracts using the universal bacterial and actinobacterial primers, and the nested PCR products, were cloned to identify the Arthrobacter species. Three bacteria (A. aurescens Phillips, A. nicotinovarans Kodama, Yamamoto, Amano and Amichi and A. uratoxydans Stackebrandt, Fowler, Fiedler and Seiler), having the closest match with the Arthrobacter species present in the parasitic wasps, were obtained from the BCCMTM/LMG bacteria collection and its esterase activity was measured. Finally, antibiotic and residual contact tests were done to determine the influence of Arthrobacter species in the susceptibility of E. mundus to pesticides (abamectin). The results suggest that this bacterial genus can affect the toxicity of E. mundus to abamectin, which in turn supports the importance of the microbial community in natural enemies that it should be considered as a factor in risk assessment tests of pesticides.

Desarrollo de estructuras nanofotonicas de campo cercano para intensificacion localizada de luz en celulas solares de banda intermedia - Near-field nanophotonic structures for localized light enhancement in intermediate band solar cells

This doctoral thesis explores some of the possibilities that near-field optics can bring to photovoltaics, and in particular to quantum-dot intermediate band solar cells (QD-IBSCs). Our main focus is the analytical optimization of the electric field distribution produced in the vicinity of single scattering particles, in order to produce the highest possible absorption enhancement in the photovoltaic medium in their surroundings. Near-field scattering structures have also been fabricated in laboratory, allowing the application of the previously studied theoretical concepts to real devices. We start by looking into the electrostatic scattering regime, which is only applicable to sub-wavelength sized particles. In this regime it was found that metallic nano-spheroids can produce absorption enhancements of about two orders of magnitude on the material in their vicinity, due to their strong plasmonic resonance. The frequency of such resonance can be tuned with the shape of the particles, allowing us to match it with the optimal transition energies of the intermediate band material. Since these metallic nanoparticles (MNPs) are to be inserted inside the cell photovoltaic medium, they should be coated by a thin insulating layer to prevent electron-hole recombination at their surface. This analysis is then generalized, using an analytical separation-of-variables method implemented in Mathematica7.0, to compute scattering by spheroids of any size and material. This code allowed the study of the scattering properties of wavelengthsized particles (mesoscopic regime), and it was verified that in this regime dielectric spheroids perform better than metallic. The light intensity scattered from such dielectric spheroids can have more than two orders of magnitude than the incident intensity, and the focal region in front of the particle can be shaped in several ways by changing the particle geometry and/or material. Experimental work was also performed in this PhD to implement in practice the concepts studied in the analysis of sub-wavelength MNPs. A wet-coating method was developed to self-assemble regular arrays of colloidal MNPs on the surface of several materials, such as silicon wafers, amorphous silicon films, gallium arsenide and glass. A series of thermal and chemical tests have been performed showing what treatments the nanoparticles can withstand for their embedment in a photovoltaic medium. MNPs arrays are then inserted in an amorphous silicon medium to study the effect of their plasmonic near-field enhancement on the absorption spectrum of the material. The self-assembled arrays of MNPs constructed in these experiments inspired a new strategy for fabricating IBSCs using colloidal quantum dots (CQDs). Such CQDs can be deposited in self-assembled monolayers, using procedures similar to those developed for the patterning of colloidal MNPs. The use of CQDs to form the intermediate band presents several important practical and physical advantages relative to the conventional dots epitaxially grown by the Stranski-Krastanov method. Besides, this provides a fast and inexpensive method for patterning binary arrays of QDs and MNPs, envisioned in the theoretical part of this thesis, in which the MNPs act as antennas focusing the light in the QDs and therefore boosting their absorption

Power absorption measurements during NMR experiments

The heating produced by the absorption of radiofrequency (RF) has been considered a secondary undesirable effect during MRI procedures. In this work, we have measured the power absorbed by distilled water, glycerol and egg-albumin during NMR and non-NMR experiments. The samples are dielectric and examples of different biological materials. The samples were irradiated using the same RF pulse sequence, whilst the magnetic field strength was the variable to be changed in the experiments. The measurements show a smooth increase of the thermal power as the magnetic field grows due to the magnetoresistive effect in the copper antenna, a coil around the probe, which is directly heating the sample. However, in the cases when the magnetic field was the adequate for the NMR to take place, some anomalies in the expected thermal powers were observed: the thermal power was higher in the cases of water and glycerol, and lower in the case of albumin. An ANOVA test demonstrated that the observed differences between the measured power and the expected power are significant.

Gravitational actions upon a tether in a non-uniform gravity field with arbitrary number of zonal harmonics

We develop general closed-form expressions for the mutual gravitational potential, resultant and torque acting upon a rigid tethered system moving in a non-uniform gravity field produced by an attracting body with revolution symmetry, such that an arbitrary number of zonal harmonics is considered. The final expressions are series expansion in two small parameters related to the reference radius of the primary and the length of the tether, respectively, each of which are scaled by the mutual distance between their centers of mass. A few numerical experiments are performed to study the convergence behavior of the final expressions, and conclude that for high precision applications it might be necessary to take into account additional perturbation terms, which come from the mutual Two-Body interaction.

Climate variability effects on field crops in Iberian Peninsula. Predictability

La presente Tesis constituye un avance en el conocimiento de los efectos de la variabilidad climática en los cultivos en la Península Ibérica (PI). Es bien conocido que la temperatura del océano, particularmente de la región tropical, es una de las variables más convenientes para ser utilizado como predictor climático. Los océanos son considerados como la principal fuente de almacenamiento de calor del planeta debido a la alta capacidad calorífica del agua. Cuando se libera esta energía, altera los regímenes globales de circulación atmosférica por mecanismos de teleconexión. Estos cambios en la circulación general de la atmósfera afectan a la temperatura, precipitación, humedad, viento, etc., a escala regional, los cuales afectan al crecimiento, desarrollo y rendimiento de los cultivos. Para el caso de Europa, esto implica que la variabilidad atmosférica en una región específica se asocia con la variabilidad de otras regiones adyacentes y/o remotas, como consecuencia Europa está siendo afectada por los patrones de circulaciones globales, que a su vez, se ven afectados por patrones oceánicos. El objetivo general de esta tesis es analizar la variabilidad del rendimiento de los cultivos y su relación con la variabilidad climática y teleconexiones, así como evaluar su predictibilidad. Además, esta Tesis tiene como objetivo establecer una metodología para estudiar la predictibilidad de las anomalías del rendimiento de los cultivos. El análisis se centra en trigo y maíz como referencia para otros cultivos de la PI, cultivos de invierno en secano y cultivos de verano en regadío respectivamente. Experimentos de simulación de cultivos utilizando una metodología en cadena de modelos (clima + cultivos) son diseñados para evaluar los impactos de los patrones de variabilidad climática en el rendimiento y su predictibilidad. La presente Tesis se estructura en dos partes: La primera se centra en el análisis de la variabilidad del clima y la segunda es una aplicación de predicción cuantitativa de cosechas. La primera parte está dividida en 3 capítulos y la segundo en un capitulo cubriendo los objetivos específicos del presente trabajo de investigación. Parte I. Análisis de variabilidad climática El primer capítulo muestra un análisis de la variabilidad del rendimiento potencial en una localidad como indicador bioclimático de las teleconexiones de El Niño con Europa, mostrando su importancia en la mejora de predictibilidad tanto en clima como en agricultura. Además, se presenta la metodología elegida para relacionar el rendimiento con las variables atmosféricas y oceánicas. El rendimiento de los cultivos es parcialmente determinado por la variabilidad climática atmosférica, que a su vez depende de los cambios en la temperatura de la superficie del mar (TSM). El Niño es el principal modo de variabilidad interanual de la TSM, y sus efectos se extienden en todo el mundo. Sin embargo, la predictibilidad de estos impactos es controversial, especialmente aquellos asociados con la variabilidad climática Europea, que se ha encontrado que es no estacionaria y no lineal. Este estudio mostró cómo el rendimiento potencial de los cultivos obtenidos a partir de datos de reanálisis y modelos de cultivos sirve como un índice alternativo y más eficaz de las teleconexiones de El Niño, ya que integra las no linealidades entre las variables climáticas en una única serie temporal. Las relaciones entre El Niño y las anomalías de rendimiento de los cultivos son más significativas que las contribuciones individuales de cada una de las variables atmosféricas utilizadas como entrada en el modelo de cultivo. Además, la no estacionariedad entre El Niño y la variabilidad climática europea se detectan con mayor claridad cuando se analiza la variabilidad de los rendimiento de los cultivos. La comprensión de esta relación permite una cierta predictibilidad hasta un año antes de la cosecha del cultivo. Esta predictibilidad no es constante, sino que depende tanto la modulación de la alta y baja frecuencia. En el segundo capítulo se identifica los patrones oceánicos y atmosféricos de variabilidad climática que afectan a los cultivos de verano en la PI. Además, se presentan hipótesis acerca del mecanismo eco-fisiológico a través del cual el cultivo responde. Este estudio se centra en el análisis de la variabilidad del rendimiento de maíz en la PI para todo el siglo veinte, usando un modelo de cultivo calibrado en 5 localidades españolas y datos climáticos de reanálisis para obtener series temporales largas de rendimiento potencial. Este estudio evalúa el uso de datos de reanálisis para obtener series de rendimiento de cultivos que dependen solo del clima, y utilizar estos rendimientos para analizar la influencia de los patrones oceánicos y atmosféricos. Los resultados muestran una gran fiabilidad de los datos de reanálisis. La distribución espacial asociada a la primera componente principal de la variabilidad del rendimiento muestra un comportamiento similar en todos los lugares estudiados de la PI. Se observa una alta correlación lineal entre el índice de El Niño y el rendimiento, pero no es estacionaria en el tiempo. Sin embargo, la relación entre la temperatura del aire y el rendimiento se mantiene constante a lo largo del tiempo, siendo los meses de mayor influencia durante el período de llenado del grano. En cuanto a los patrones atmosféricos, el patrón Escandinavia presentó una influencia significativa en el rendimiento en PI. En el tercer capítulo se identifica los patrones oceánicos y atmosféricos de variabilidad climática que afectan a los cultivos de invierno en la PI. Además, se presentan hipótesis acerca del mecanismo eco-fisiológico a través del cual el cultivo responde. Este estudio se centra en el análisis de la variabilidad del rendimiento de trigo en secano del Noreste (NE) de la PI. La variabilidad climática es el principal motor de los cambios en el crecimiento, desarrollo y rendimiento de los cultivos, especialmente en los sistemas de producción en secano. En la PI, los rendimientos de trigo son fuertemente dependientes de la cantidad de precipitación estacional y la distribución temporal de las mismas durante el periodo de crecimiento del cultivo. La principal fuente de variabilidad interanual de la precipitación en la PI es la Oscilación del Atlántico Norte (NAO), que se ha relacionado, en parte, con los cambios en la temperatura de la superficie del mar en el Pacífico Tropical (El Niño) y el Atlántico Tropical (TNA). La existencia de cierta predictibilidad nos ha animado a analizar la posible predicción de los rendimientos de trigo en la PI utilizando anomalías de TSM como predictor. Para ello, se ha utilizado un modelo de cultivo (calibrado en dos localidades del NE de la PI) y datos climáticos de reanálisis para obtener series temporales largas de rendimiento de trigo alcanzable y relacionar su variabilidad con anomalías de la TSM. Los resultados muestran que El Niño y la TNA influyen en el desarrollo y rendimiento del trigo en el NE de la PI, y estos impactos depende del estado concurrente de la NAO. Aunque la relación cultivo-TSM no es igual durante todo el periodo analizado, se puede explicar por un mecanismo eco-fisiológico estacionario. Durante la segunda mitad del siglo veinte, el calentamiento (enfriamiento) en la superficie del Atlántico tropical se asocia a una fase negativa (positiva) de la NAO, que ejerce una influencia positiva (negativa) en la temperatura mínima y precipitación durante el invierno y, por lo tanto, aumenta (disminuye) el rendimiento de trigo en la PI. En relación con El Niño, la correlación más alta se observó en el período 1981 -2001. En estas décadas, los altos (bajos) rendimientos se asocian con una transición El Niño - La Niña (La Niña - El Niño) o con eventos de El Niño (La Niña) que están finalizando. Para estos eventos, el patrón atmosférica asociada se asemeja a la NAO, que también influye directamente en la temperatura máxima y precipitación experimentadas por el cultivo durante la floración y llenado de grano. Los co- efectos de los dos patrones de teleconexión oceánicos ayudan a aumentar (disminuir) la precipitación y a disminuir (aumentar) la temperatura máxima en PI, por lo tanto el rendimiento de trigo aumenta (disminuye). Parte II. Predicción de cultivos. En el último capítulo se analiza los beneficios potenciales del uso de predicciones climáticas estacionales (por ejemplo de precipitación) en las predicciones de rendimientos de trigo y maíz, y explora métodos para aplicar dichos pronósticos climáticos en modelos de cultivo. Las predicciones climáticas estacionales tienen un gran potencial en las predicciones de cultivos, contribuyendo de esta manera a una mayor eficiencia de la gestión agrícola, seguridad alimentaria y de subsistencia. Los pronósticos climáticos se expresan en diferentes formas, sin embargo todos ellos son probabilísticos. Para ello, se evalúan y aplican dos métodos para desagregar las predicciones climáticas estacionales en datos diarios: 1) un generador climático estocástico condicionado (predictWTD) y 2) un simple re-muestreador basado en las probabilidades del pronóstico (FResampler1). Los dos métodos se evaluaron en un caso de estudio en el que se analizaron los impactos de tres escenarios de predicciones de precipitación estacional (predicción seco, medio y lluvioso) en el rendimiento de trigo en secano, sobre las necesidades de riego y rendimiento de maíz en la PI. Además, se estimó el margen bruto y los riesgos de la producción asociada con las predicciones de precipitación estacional extremas (seca y lluviosa). Los métodos predWTD y FResampler1 usados para desagregar los pronósticos de precipitación estacional en datos diarios, que serán usados como inputs en los modelos de cultivos, proporcionan una predicción comparable. Por lo tanto, ambos métodos parecen opciones factibles/viables para la vinculación de los pronósticos estacionales con modelos de simulación de cultivos para establecer predicciones de rendimiento o las necesidades de riego en el caso de maíz. El análisis del impacto en el margen bruto de los precios del grano de los dos cultivos (trigo y maíz) y el coste de riego (maíz) sugieren que la combinación de los precios de mercado previstos y la predicción climática estacional pueden ser una buena herramienta en la toma de decisiones de los agricultores, especialmente en predicciones secas y/o localidades con baja precipitación anual. Estos métodos permiten cuantificar los beneficios y riesgos de los agricultores ante una predicción climática estacional en la PI. Por lo tanto, seríamos capaces de establecer sistemas de alerta temprana y diseñar estrategias de adaptación del manejo del cultivo para aprovechar las condiciones favorables o reducir los efectos de condiciones adversas. La utilidad potencial de esta Tesis es la aplicación de las relaciones encontradas para predicción de cosechas de la próxima campaña agrícola. Una correcta predicción de los rendimientos podría ayudar a los agricultores a planear con antelación sus prácticas agronómicas y todos los demás aspectos relacionados con el manejo de los cultivos. Esta metodología se puede utilizar también para la predicción de las tendencias futuras de la variabilidad del rendimiento en la PI. Tanto los sectores públicos (mejora de la planificación agrícola) como privados (agricultores, compañías de seguros agrarios) pueden beneficiarse de esta mejora en la predicción de cosechas. ABSTRACT The present thesis constitutes a step forward in advancing of knowledge of the effects of climate variability on crops in the Iberian Peninsula (IP). It is well known that ocean temperature, particularly the tropical ocean, is one of the most convenient variables to be used as climate predictor. Oceans are considered as the principal heat storage of the planet due to the high heat capacity of water. When this energy is released, it alters the global atmospheric circulation regimes by teleconnection1 mechanisms. These changes in the general circulation of the atmosphere affect the regional temperature, precipitation, moisture, wind, etc., and those influence crop growth, development and yield. For the case of Europe, this implies that the atmospheric variability in a specific region is associated with the variability of others adjacent and/or remote regions as a consequence of Europe being affected by global circulations patterns which, in turn, are affected by oceanic patterns. The general objective of this Thesis is to analyze the variability of crop yields at climate time scales and its relation to the climate variability and teleconnections, as well as to evaluate their predictability. Moreover, this Thesis aims to establish a methodology to study the predictability of crop yield anomalies. The analysis focuses on wheat and maize as a reference crops for other field crops in the IP, for winter rainfed crops and summer irrigated crops respectively. Crop simulation experiments using a model chain methodology (climate + crop) are designed to evaluate the impacts of climate variability patterns on yield and its predictability. The present Thesis is structured in two parts. The first part is focused on the climate variability analyses, and the second part is an application of the quantitative crop forecasting for years that fulfill specific conditions identified in the first part. This Thesis is divided into 4 chapters, covering the specific objectives of the present research work. Part I. Climate variability analyses The first chapter shows an analysis of potential yield variability in one location, as a bioclimatic indicator of the El Niño teleconnections with Europe, putting forward its importance for improving predictability in both climate and agriculture. It also presents the chosen methodology to relate yield with atmospheric and oceanic variables. Crop yield is partially determined by atmospheric climate variability, which in turn depends on changes in the sea surface temperature (SST). El Niño is the leading mode of SST interannual variability, and its impacts extend worldwide. Nevertheless, the predictability of these impacts is controversial, especially those associated with European climate variability, which have been found to be non-stationary and non-linear. The study showed how potential2 crop yield obtained from reanalysis data and crop models serves as an alternative and more effective index of El Niño teleconnections because it integrates the nonlinearities between the climate variables in a unique time series. The relationships between El Niño and crop yield anomalies are more significant than the individual contributions of each of the atmospheric variables used as input in the crop model. Additionally, the non-stationarities between El Niño and European climate variability are more clearly detected when analyzing crop-yield variability. The understanding of this relationship allows for some predictability up to one year before the crop is harvested. This predictability is not constant, but depends on both high and low frequency modulation. The second chapter identifies the oceanic and atmospheric patterns of climate variability affecting summer cropping systems in the IP. Moreover, hypotheses about the eco-physiological mechanism behind crop response are presented. It is focused on an analysis of maize yield variability in IP for the whole twenty century, using a calibrated crop model at five contrasting Spanish locations and reanalyses climate datasets to obtain long time series of potential yield. The study tests the use of reanalysis data for obtaining only climate dependent time series of simulated crop yield for the whole region, and to use these yield to analyze the influences of oceanic and atmospheric patterns. The results show a good reliability of reanalysis data. The spatial distribution of the leading principal component of yield variability shows a similar behaviour over all the studied locations in the IP. The strong linear correlation between El Niño index and yield is remarkable, being this relation non-stationary on time, although the air temperature-yield relationship remains on time, being the highest influences during grain filling period. Regarding atmospheric patterns, the summer Scandinavian pattern has significant influence on yield in IP. The third chapter identifies the oceanic and atmospheric patterns of climate variability affecting winter cropping systems in the IP. Also, hypotheses about the eco-physiological mechanism behind crop response are presented. It is focused on an analysis of rainfed wheat yield variability in IP. Climate variability is the main driver of changes in crop growth, development and yield, especially for rainfed production systems. In IP, wheat yields are strongly dependent on seasonal rainfall amount and temporal distribution of rainfall during the growing season. The major source of precipitation interannual variability in IP is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which has been related in part with changes in the Tropical Pacific (El Niño) and Atlantic (TNA) sea surface temperature (SST). The existence of some predictability has encouraged us to analyze the possible predictability of the wheat yield in the IP using SSTs anomalies as predictor. For this purpose, a crop model with a site specific calibration for the Northeast of IP and reanalysis climate datasets have been used to obtain long time series of attainable wheat yield and relate their variability with SST anomalies. The results show that El Niño and TNA influence rainfed wheat development and yield in IP and these impacts depend on the concurrent state of the NAO. Although crop-SST relationships do not equally hold on during the whole analyzed period, they can be explained by an understood and stationary ecophysiological mechanism. During the second half of the twenty century, the positive (negative) TNA index is associated to a negative (positive) phase of NAO, which exerts a positive (negative) influence on minimum temperatures (Tmin) and precipitation (Prec) during winter and, thus, yield increases (decreases) in IP. In relation to El Niño, the highest correlation takes place in the period 1981-2001. For these decades, high (low) yields are associated with an El Niño to La Niña (La Niña to El Niño) transitions or to El Niño events finishing. For these events, the regional associated atmospheric pattern resembles the NAO, which also influences directly on the maximum temperatures (Tmax) and precipitation experienced by the crop during flowering and grain filling. The co-effects of the two teleconnection patterns help to increase (decrease) the rainfall and decrease (increase) Tmax in IP, thus on increase (decrease) wheat yield. Part II. Crop forecasting The last chapter analyses the potential benefits for wheat and maize yields prediction from using seasonal climate forecasts (precipitation), and explores methods to apply such a climate forecast to crop models. Seasonal climate prediction has significant potential to contribute to the efficiency of agricultural management, and to food and livelihood security. Climate forecasts come in different forms, but probabilistic. For this purpose, two methods were evaluated and applied for disaggregating seasonal climate forecast into daily weather realizations: 1) a conditioned stochastic weather generator (predictWTD) and 2) a simple forecast probability resampler (FResampler1). The two methods were evaluated in a case study where the impacts of three scenarios of seasonal rainfall forecasts on rainfed wheat yield, on irrigation requirements and yields of maize in IP were analyzed. In addition, we estimated the economic margins and production risks associated with extreme scenarios of seasonal rainfall forecasts (dry and wet). The predWTD and FResampler1 methods used for disaggregating seasonal rainfall forecast into daily data needed by the crop simulation models provided comparable predictability. Therefore both methods seem feasible options for linking seasonal forecasts with crop simulation models for establishing yield forecasts or irrigation water requirements. The analysis of the impact on gross margin of grain prices for both crops and maize irrigation costs suggests the combination of market prices expected and the seasonal climate forecast can be a good tool in farmer’s decision-making, especially on dry forecast and/or in locations with low annual precipitation. These methodologies would allow quantifying the benefits and risks of a seasonal weather forecast to farmers in IP. Therefore, we would be able to establish early warning systems and to design crop management adaptation strategies that take advantage of favorable conditions or reduce the effect of adverse conditions. The potential usefulness of this Thesis is to apply the relationships found to crop forecasting on the next cropping season, suggesting opportunity time windows for the prediction. The methodology can be used as well for the prediction of future trends of IP yield variability. Both public (improvement of agricultural planning) and private (decision support to farmers, insurance companies) sectors may benefit from such an improvement of crop forecasting.