Interregional trade changes in Spain caused by the introduction of a road fee charge for heavy goods vehicles

The introduction of a homogeneous road charging system according to the Directive 2011/76/EU for the use of roads is still under development in most European Union (EU) member states. Spain, like other EU members, has been encouraged to introduce a charging system for Heavy Goods Vehicles (HGVs) throughout the country. This nationwide charge has been postponed because there are serious concerns about their advantages from an economic point of view. Within this context, this paper applies an integrated modeling approach to shape elastic trade coefficients among regions by using a random utility based multiregional Input- Output (RUBMRIO) approach and a road transport network model in order to determine regional distributive and substitutive economic effects by simulating the introduction of a distance-based charge (?/km) considering 7,053.8 kilometers of free highways linking the capitals of the Spanish regions. In addition, an in-depth analysis of interregional trade changes is developed to evaluate and characterize the role of the road charging approach in trade relations among regions and across freight intensive economic sectors. For this purpose, differences in trade relations are described and assessed between a base-case or ?do nothing? scenario and a road fee-charge setting scenario. The results show that the specific amount of the charge set for HGVs affect each region differently and to a different extent because in some regions the price of commodities and the Generalized Transport Cost will decrease its competiveness within the country.

An integrated modeling approach to assess the impact on road freight transport demand of allowing longer and heavier vehicles (LHVs) in Spain

The assessment on introducing Longer and Heavier Vehicles (LHVs) on the road freight transport demand is performed in this paper by applying an integrated modeling approach composed of a Random Utility-Based Multiregional Input-Output model (RUBMRIO) and a road transport network model. The approach strongly supports the concept that changes in transport costs derived from the LHVs allowance as well as the economic structure of regions have both direct and indirect effects on the road freight transport system. In addition, we estimate the magnitude and extent of demand changes in the road freight transportation system by using the commodity-based structure of the approach to identify the effect on traffic flows and on pollutant emissions over the whole network of Spain by considering a sensitivity analysis of the main parameters which determine the share of Heavy-Goods Vehicles (HGVs) and LHVs. The results show that the introduction of LHVs will strengthen the competitiveness of the road haulage sector by reducing costs, emissions, and the total freight vehicles required.

Development and assessment of traffic-related emission abatement measures for the Madrid city (Spain) through the WRF-SMOKE-CMAQ modelling system

The achievement of the limit values established in the European legislation pose an important handicap for large urban areas with intense road traffic, such as Madrid (Spain). Despite permanent measures included in air quality plans it is important to assess additional measures that may be temporally applied under unfavourable conditions. This paper reports on the simulation of different traffic restriction strategies in Madrid for high-pollution episodes.

Assessment of urban parameterizations in the WRF model for air quality modelling purposes in Madrid (Spain)

This study aims to assess the performance or multi-layer canopy parameterizations implemented in the mesoscale WRF model in order to understand their potential contribution to improve the description of energy fluxes and wind fields in the Madrid city. It was found that the Building Energy Model (BEP+BEM) parameterization yielded better results than the bulk standard scheme implemented in the Noah LSM, but very close to those of the Building Energy Parameterization (BEP). The later was deemed as the best option since data requirements and CPU time were smaller. Two annual runs were made to feed the CMAQ chemical-transport model to assess the impact of this feature in routinely air quality modelling activities.

Evaluation of air quality impacts with an integrated assessment model for Spain

The present paper describes the advancement and evaluation of air quality-related impacts with the Atmospheric Evaluation and Research Integrated system for Spain (AERIS). In its current version, AERIS is able to provide estimates on the impacts of air quality over human health (PM2.5 and O3), crops and vegetation (O3). The modules that allow quantifying the before mentioned impacts were modeled by applying different approaches (mostly for the European context) present in scientific literature to the conditions of the Iberian Peninsula. This application was supported by reliable data sources, as well as by the good predictive capacity of AERIS for ambient concentrations. For validation purposes, the estimates of AERIS for impacts on human health (change in the statistical life expectancy-PM2.5) and vegetation (loss of wheat crops-O3) were compared against results from the SERCA project and GAINS estimates for two emission scenarios. In general, good results evidenced by reasonable correlation coefficients were obtained, therefore confirming the adequateness of the followed modeling approaches and the quality of AERIS predictions.

Analysis of Contributions to NO2 Ambient Air Quality Levels in Madrid City (Spain) through Modeling. Implications for the Development of Policies and Air Quality Monitoring

As environmental standards become more stringent (e.g. European Directive 2008/50/EC), more reliable and sophisticated modeling tools are needed to simulate measures and plans that may effectively tackle air quality exceedances, common in large cities across Europe, particularly for NO2. Modeling air quality in urban areas is rather complex since observed concentration values are a consequence of the interaction of multiple sources and processes that involve a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Besides a consistent and robust multi-scale modeling system, comprehensive and flexible emission inventories are needed. This paper discusses the application of the WRF-SMOKE-CMAQ system to the Madrid city (Spain) to assess the contribution of the main emitting sectors in the region. A detailed emission inventory was compiled for this purpose. This inventory relies on bottom-up methods for the most important sources. It is coupled with the regional traffic model and it makes use of an extensive database of industrial, commercial and residential combustion plants. Less relevant sources are downscaled from national or regional inventories. This paper reports the methodology and main results of the source apportionment study performed to understand the origin of pollution (main sectors and geographical areas) and define clear targets for the abatement strategy. Finally the structure of the air quality monitoring is analyzed and discussed to identify options to improve the monitoring strategy not only in the Madrid city but the whole metropolitan area.

Poisson dynamic models. An application to interurban accidents in Spain

In this study we apply count data models to four integer–valued time series related to accidentality in Spanish roads applying both the frequentist and Bayesian approaches. The time series are: number of fatalities, number of fatal accidents, number of killed or seriously injured (KSI) and number of accidents with KSI. The model structure is Poisson regression with first order autoregressive errors. The purpose of the paper is first to sort out the explanatory variables by relevance and second to carry out a prediction exercise for validation.

Comparative analysis for the assessment of restoration treatments on stone material from the roman theater of Merida (Spain)

The overall goal of the project is the study of effects of conservation treatments applied on stone material from archaeological sites, i n terms of superficial changes, effectiveness and durability. In this sense, one of the first premises is characterize the surface of the treated and untreated material in order to determine changes in physical and chemical properties.

Changes in Petrophysical Properties of the Stone Surface due to Past Conservation Treatments in Archaeological Sites of Merida (Spain)

Petrophysical properties, such as porosity, permeability, density or anisotropy de-termine the alterability of stone surfaces from archaeological sites, and therefore, the future preservation of the material. Others, like superficial roughness or color, may point out changes due to alteration processes, natural or man-induced, for ex-ample, by conservation treatments. The application of conservation treatments may vary some of these properties forcing the stone surface to a re-adaptation to the new conditions, which could generate new processes of deterioration. In this study changes resulting from the application of consolidating and hydrophobic treatments on stone materials from the Roman Theatre (marble and granite) and the Mitreo’s House (mural painting and mosaics), both archaeological sites from Merida (Spain), are analyzed. The use of portable field devices allows us to perform analyses both on site and in la-boratory, comparing treated and untreated samples. Treatments consisted of syn-thetic resins, consolidating (such as tetraethoxysilane TEOS) and hydrophobic products. Results confirm that undesirable changes may occur, with consequences ranging from purely aesthetic variations to physical, chemical and mechanical damages. This also permits us to check limitations in the use of these techniques for the evaluation of conservation treatments.

Holocene fossil woods from the Caldera de Taburiente National Park (Canary Islands, Spain)

The study of 39 Pinus canariensis Holocene fossil woods from the Caldera de Taburiente is presented

Recent advances on dendrogeomorphological research applied to flood hazard analysis in Spain.

Estudios dendroecológicos para el análisis de regímentes torrenciales y avenidas

Flood Hazard Analysis in the ”Caldera de Taburiente” National Park (La Palma, Canary Islands, Spain) using Dendrogeomorphology

Aplicación de técnicas dendroecológicas para el estudio de avenidas torrenciales.

New agri-environmental policies for the sustainability of mountainous olive farming. Evidences from Andalusia, Spain

La sostenibilidad de los sistemas olivareros situados en zonas de pendiente y montaña (SMOPS) en Andalucía se encuentra actualmente amenazada por las elevadas tasas de abandono que afectan a estos sistemas productivos. Así, la consumación de este proceso de abandono, no sólo pondría en peligro a las propias explotaciones, sino a todo el conjunto de bienes y servicios no productivos y al patrimonio cultural generado por este sistema productivo. En este contexto, la búsqueda de alternativas políticas enfocadas a revertir este proceso se erige como una necesidad categórica en aras de garantizar en el largo plazo la sostenibilidad de los olivares de montaña. Esta tesis pretende hacer frente a esta necesidad a través de la construcción de un marco político alternativo para los SMOPS, que permita la integración simultánea de todas las dimensiones que pueden influir en su desarrollo; esto es: el marco político actual, principalmente determinado por la Política Agraria Común (PAC) de la Unión Europea (UE); las preferencias de la sociedad hacia la oferta de bienes y servicios públicos generados por los SMOPS; y las preferencias y voluntad de innovación hacia nuevos manejos y sistemas de gestión de los agricultores y propietarios de las explotaciones. Para ello, se emplea una metodología de investigación mixta, que abarca la realización de cuatro encuestas (personales y online) llevadas a cabo a los agentes o grupos de interés involucrados directa o indirectamente en la gestión de los SMOPS –ciudadanos, agricultores y propietarios y expertos-; una profunda revisión de las herramientas de política agroambiental actuales y posibles alternativas a las mismas; y el desarrollo de nuevas estrategias metodológicas para dotar de mayor precisión y fiabilidad las estimaciones obtenidas a partir del Método del Experimento de Elección (MEE) en el campo de la valoración medioambiental. En general, los resultados muestran que una estrategia de política agroambiental basada en la combinación de los Contratos Territoriales de Zona Rural (CTZR) y el manejo ecológico supondría una mejora en la sostenibilidad de los sistemas olivareros de montaña andaluces, que, al mismo tiempo, propiciaría una mejor consideración de las necesidades y demandas de los agentes implicados en su gestión. Asimismo, los hallazgos obtenidos en esta investigación demandan un cambio de paradigma en los actuales pagos agroambientales, que han de pasar de una estrategia basada en la implementación de acciones, a otra enfocada al logro de objetivos, la cual, en el caso del olivar, se podría centrar en el aumento del secuestro de carbono en el suelo. Desde un punto de vista metodológico, los resultados han contribuido notablemente a mejorar la fiabilidad y precisión de las conclusiones estimadas a partir del MEE, mediante el diseño de un novedoso proceso iterativo para detectar posibles comportamientos inconsistentes por parte de los entrevistados con respecto a su máxima Disposición al Pago (DAP) para lograr la situación considerada como “óptima” en los olivares ecológicos de montaña andaluces. En líneas generales, el actual marco institucional favorece la puesta en práctica de la mayoría de las estrategias propuestas en esta tesis; sin embargo son necesarios mayores esfuerzos para reconducir los actuales Pagos Agroambientales y Climáticos de la PAC, hacia una estrategia de política agroambiental adaptada a las necesidades y requisitos del territorio en el que se aplica, enfocada al logro de objetivos y que sea capaz de integrar y coordinar al conjunto de agentes y grupos de interés involucrados -directa o indirectamente- en la gestión de los olivares de montaña. En este contexto, se espera que la puesta en práctica de nuevas estructuras y acuerdos de gobernanza territorial juegue un importante papel en el desarrollo de una política agroambiental realmente adaptada a las necesidades de los sistemas olivareros de montaña andaluces. ABSTRACT The long-term sustainability of Andalusian sloping and mountainous olive production systems (SMOPS) is currently threatened by the high abandonment rates that affect these production systems. The effective occurrence of this abandonment process is indeed menacing not only farms themselves, but also the wide array of public goods and services provided by SMOPS and the cultural heritage held by this production system. The search of policy alternatives aimed at tackling this process is thus a central necessity. This thesis aims to undertake this necessity by building an alternative policy framework for SMOPS that simultaneously integrates the several dimensions that are susceptible to influence it, namely: the current policy framework, mainly determined by the European Union’s (EU) Common Agricultural Policy (CAP); the social preferences toward the supply of SMOPS’ public goods and services; and farmers’ preferences and willingness to innovate toward new management practices in their farms. For this purpose, we put into practice a mixed-method strategy that combines four face-to-face and online surveys carried out with SMOPS’ stakeholders -including citizens, farmers and experts-; in-depth analysis of current and alternative agrienvironmental policy (AEP) instruments; and the development of novel methodological approaches to advance toward more reliable Discrete Choice Experiment’s (DCE) outcomes in the field of environmental valuation. Overall, results show that a policy strategy based on the combination of Territorial Management Contracts (TMC) and organic management would further enhance Andalusian SMOPS’ sustainability by simultaneously taking into account stakeholders’ demands and needs. Findings also call for paradigm shift of the current action-oriented design of Agri-Environmental-Climate Schemes (AECS), toward a result-based approach, that in the case of olive orchards should particularly be focused on enhancing soil carbon sequestration. From a methodological perspective, results have contributed to improve the accuracy and feasibility of DCE outcomes by designing a novel and iterative procedure focused in ascertaining respondents’ inconsistent behaviour with respect to their stated maximum WTP for the attainment of an ideal situation to be achieved in organic Andalusian SMOPS. Generally, the present institutional framework favours the implementation of the main policy strategies proposed in this thesis, albeit further efforts are required to better conduct current CAP’s agri-environmental instruments toward a territorially targeted result-oriented strategy capable to integrate and coordinate the whole set of stakeholders involved in the management of SMOPS. In this regard, alternative governance structures and arrangements are expected to play a major role on the process of tackling SMOPS’ agri-environmental policy challenge.

Native bradyrhizobial symbionts of Lupinus mariae-josephae, a unique endemism thriving in alkaline soils in Eastern Spain

Lupinus mariae-josephae (Lmj) es una especie de lupino endémica de una pequeña y específica área de Comunidad Valenciana (Este de España), donde prospera en suelos alcalinoscalcáreos, un hábitat singular para los altramuces, que crecen preferentemente en suelos ácidos o neutros. Esto hace de Lmj una especie de lupino única. Cuando se inició este trabajo, la extensión conocida de este endemismo abarcaba unos 700 kilómetros cuadrados, confinados en la provincia de Valencia. En esta área, Lmj prospera en pequeñas poblaciones aisladas que contienen un número reducido de plantas por lo que se la consideró una especie en peligro de extinción. Todos los esfuerzos, utilizando estrategias clásicas dirigidas a ampliar el área de crecimiento de Lmj y garantizar su conservación, han tenido un éxito limitado. El trabajo que se presenta está dirigido a mejorar el conocimiento de la ecología de Lmj, en particular la interacción simbiótica que establece con bacterias del suelo denominadas rizobios y se centra en la caracterización fenotípica, filogenética y genómica de esos rizobios. También se investiga la posible contribución de la simbiosis en mejorar la conservación de Lmj. Para este fin, se han estudiado diferentes aspectos que se describen a continuación. El primero objetivo se centró en aislar y estudiar de la diversidad genética de las bacterias endosimbióticas de Lmj. . Se realizó un análisis filogenético de genes esenciales que mostró que las cepas de Lmj pertenecen al género Bradyrhizobium y que presentan una gran diversidad con características fenotípicas y simbióticas diferentes de cepas de Bradyrhizobium que nodulan otras especies de lupinos nativos de España (cepas ISLU). Las cepas estudiadas se dividieron en dos grupos (Clado I y Clado II). El Clado I, incluye a las cepas Lmj, definiendo un nuevo linaje, filogenéticamente relacionado con otras especies de Bradyrhizobium, como B. jicamae y B. elkanii. El Clado II contiene cepas ISLU relacionadas con cepas de B. canariense y B. japonicum que establecen simbiosis con lupinos de suelos ácidos. Otro análisis filogenético basado en genes simbióticos, distribuyó las cepas de Lmj en sólo dos grupos diferentes. La singularidad y gran diversidad de estas cepas en una pequeña área geográfica, hacen de este, un atractivo sistema para el estudio de la evolución y adaptación de las bacterias simbióticas a su respectiva planta huésped. Adicionalmente, se estudio la presencia de bacterias capaces de nodular Lmj en suelos básicos de Chiapas, México. Sorprendentemente, estos suelos contienen bacterias capaces establecer interacciones simbióticas eficientes con Lmj en ensayos de invernadero. A continuación se investigó la taxonomía de los endosimbiontes de Lmj analizando la secuencia de cuatro genes esenciales (16S rRNA, recA, glnII y atpD) y el promedio de identidad de nucleótidos de genomas completos de algunas cepas representativas de la diversidad (ANIm). Se identificaron nuevas especies de Bradyrhizobium dentro del Clado I y se definió una de ellas: 'Bradyrhizobium valentinum' sp. nov (cepa tipo LmjM3T = CECT 8364T, LMG 2761T). También se abordó cómo conservar Lmj en su hábitat natural mediante inoculación con alguna de las cepas aisladas. Se demostró la ausencia de bacterias capaces de nodular Lmj en suelos rojos alcalinos o ‘‘terra rossa’’ de la Península Ibérica y Baleares. Dos cepas, altamente eficientes en cuanto a la fijación de nitrógeno, LmjC y LmjM3T, fueron seleccionadas para ser empleadas como inoculantes. Dos experimentos de campo llevados a cabo en años consecutivos en áreas con características edafoclimáticas similares a las que presentan las poblaciones de Lmj, lograron la reproducción exitosa de la planta. Se concluyó que un ciclo reproductivo exitoso de Lmj es absolutamente dependiente de la inoculación con sus simbiontes naturales y que la simbiosis debe ser considerada un factor esencial en estrategias de conservación de leguminosas en peligro. La obtención de varias secuencias genómicas de cepas aisladas de Lmj y de otras cepas de Bradyrhizobium reveló una alta similitud entre los genomas de las cepas del Clado I, y permitió la identificación de cinco posibles nuevas especies. Además, se estudiaron tres agrupaciones de genes relacionados con la simbiosis (nod, nif y fix) definiendo un nuevo linaje para las cepas de Lmj, diferente del symbiovar “genistearum” de B. canariense y B. japonicum. La baja diversidad encontrada en el análisis filogenético de los genes simbióticos contrasta con la gran diversidad asociada a genes esenciales. La presencia de plásmidos en cepas del género Bradyrhizobium ha sido descrita en muy pocas ocasiones, sin embargo el análisis de la secuencia genómica de la cepa ISLU101, aislada de Lupinus angustifolius, reveló la presencia de un origen de replicación extracromosómico homólogo al operón repABC, presente en el plásmido de Bradyrhizobium sp BTAi1. Gracias a esta secuencia se identificaron genes homólogos en 19 de 72 cepas ISLU. Filogenéticamente, las secuencias de repABC se agruparon en un grupo monofilético con las de pBTAi1 y separadas de los rizobios de crecimiento rápido. Finalmente, se identificaron sistemas de secreción de proteínas de tipo III (T3SS) en nueve genomas de cepas de Lmj. Los T3SS pueden inyectar proteínas efectoras al interior de células vegetales. Su presencia en rizobios se ha relacionado con la gama de hospedador que pueden nodular y puede tener un efecto beneficioso, neutro o perjudicial en la simbiosis. Los T3SS de las cepas de Lmj codifican para una proteína efectora similar a NopE, un efector dependiente de T3SS descrito en B. diazoefficiens USDA 110T. La proteína NopE de la cepa LmjC se ha caracterizado bioquímicamente. ABSTRACT Lupinus mariae-josephae (Lmj) is a lupine species endemic of a unique small area in Valencia region (Eastern Spain) where the lupine plants thrive in alkaline-limed soils, which preferentially grow in acid or neutral soils. This is the type of soils native lupines of Spain. When this work was initiated, the extension of the endemic area of Lmj was of about 700 squared kilometers confined to the Valencia province. In this area, Lmj thrives in small, isolated patches containing a reduced number of plants, and points to an endemism that can easily became endangered or extinct. Consequently, the Valencia Community authorities gave a ‘‘microreserve” status for conservation of the species. All efforts, using classical strategies directed to extend the area of Lmj growth and ensure its conservation have been so far unsuccessful. The work presented here is directed to improve our knowledge of Lmj ecology and it is centered in the characterization of the rhizobial symbiosis by phenotypic, phylogenetic and genomic analysis as well as in investigate the potential contribution of the symbiosis to improve its conservation. To this end, five different topics have been studied, and results are briefly described here. Extensive details can be followed en the attached, published articles. The first topic deals with the indigenous rhizobial symbionts of the Lmj endemism, and its genetic diversity was investigated. The Lmj root symbionts belong to the Bradyrhizobium genus, and phylogenetic analysis based on core genes identified a large diversity of Bradyrhizobium strains with phenotypic and symbiotic characteristics different from rhizobia nodulating other Lupinus spp. native of Spain. The strains were split in two clades. Clade II contained strains close to classical B. canariense and B. japonicum lineages that establish symbioses with lupines in acid soils of the Mediterranean area. Clade I included Lmj strains that define a new lineage, close to other Bradyrhizobium species as B. jicamae and B. elkanii. The phylogenetic analysis based on symbiotic genes identified only two distinct clusters. The singularity and large diversity of these strains in such a small geographical area makes this an attractive system for studying the evolution and adaptation of the rhizobial symbiont to the plant host. Additionally, the presence of bacteria able to nodulate Lmj in basic soils from Chiapas, Mexico was investigated. Surprisingly, these soils contain bacteria able to effectively nodulate and fix nitrogen with Lmj plants in greenhouse assays. In the second topic, the taxonomic status of the endosymbiotic bacteria of Lmj from Valencia endemism and Chiapas was investigated. Results from phylogenetic analysis of core genes and Average Nucleotide Identity (ANIm) using draft genomic sequences identified new Bradyrhizobium species within strains of Clade I of Lmj endosymbiotic bacteria. Only one of these potentially new species has been defined, meanwhile the others are under process of characterization. The name ‘Bradyrhizobium valentinum’ sp. nov. was proposed for the defined species (type strain LmjM3T= CECT 8364T, LMG 2761T). The third topic was directed to conservation of endangered Lmj in its natural habitat. The relevant conclusion of this experimentation is that the symbiosis should be considered as a relevant factor in the conservation strategies for endangered legumes. First, we showed absence of bacteria able to nodulate Lmj in all the inspected ‘‘terra rossa’’ or alkaline red soils of the Iberian Peninsula and Balearic Islands. Then, two efficient nitrogen fixing strains with Lmj plants, LmjC and LmjM3T, were selected as inoculum for seed coating. Two planting experiments were carried out in consecutive years under natural conditions in areas with edapho-climatic characteristics identical to those sustaining natural Lmj populations, and successful reproduction of the plant was achieved. The relevant conclusion from these assays was that the successful reproductive cycle was absolutely dependent on seedling inoculation with effective bradyrhizobia The forth topic deep into the analysis of the genomic of Lmj representative strains. To this end, draft genomic sequences of selected Lmj strains and type strains of Bradyrhizobium spp. were assembled. The comparison analysis of the draft genomic sequences of Lmj strains and related Bradyrhizobium species grouped in Clade I, revealed a high genomic homology among them, and allowed the definition of five potentially new species of Lmj nodulating bacteria. Also, based on the available draft genomic sequences, only three clusters of nod, fix and nif genes from Lmj strains were identified and showed to define a new symbiotic lineage, distant from that of B. canariense and B. japonicum bv. genistearum. The low diversity exhibited by the phylogenetic analysis of symbiotic genes contrast with the large diversity of strains as regards the housekeeping genes analyzed. Besides, the genomic analysis of a Lupinus angustifolius strain ISLU101, revealed the presence of an extrachromosomal replication origin homologous to repABC cluster from plasmid present in Bradyrhizobium spp BTAi1. This repABC cluster gene sequence allowed the identification of extrachromosomic replication origin in 19 out of 72 Bradyrhizobium strains from Lupinus spp., a highly significant result since the absence of plasmids in the Bradyrhizobium genus was traditionally assumed. The repABC gene sequences of these strains grouped them in a unique monophyletic group, related to B. sp. BTAi1 plasmid, but differentiated from the repABC gene cluster of plasmids in fast growing rhizobium strains. The last topic was focused on characterization of type III secreted effectors present in Lmj endosymbiotic bacteria. Type III secretion systems (T3SS) are specialized protein export machineries which can deliver effector proteins into plant cells. The presence of T3SS in rhizobia has frequently been related to the symbiotic nodulation host-range and may have a beneficial or detrimental effect on the symbiosis with legumes. In this context, the presence of T3SS in genomes of nine Lmj strains was investigated, and it was shown the presence of clusters encoding NopE type III-secreted protein similar to the NopE1 and NopE2 of B. diazoefficiens USDA 110T. The putative NopE protein of LmjC strain is at present being characterized regarding its structure and function.

Brown trout thermal niche and climate change: expected changes in the distribution of cold-water fish in central Spain

This paper addresses the determination of the realized thermal niche and the effects of climate change on the range distribution of two brown trout populations inhabiting two streams in the Duero River basin (Iberian Peninsula) at the edge of the natural distribution area of this species. For reaching these goals, new methodological developments were applied to improve reliability of forecasts. Water temperature data were collected using 11 thermographs located along the altitudinal gradient, and they were used to model the relationship between stream temperature and air temperature along the river continuum. Trout abundance was studied using electrofishing at 37 sites to determine the current distribution. The RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 change scenarios adopted by the International Panel of Climate Change for its Fifth Assessment Report were used for simulations and local downscaling in this study. We found more reliable results using the daily mean stream temperature than maximum daily temperature and their respective seven days moving-average to determine the distribution thresholds. Thereby, the observed limits of the summer distribution of brown trout were linked to thresholds between 18.1ºC and 18.7ºC. These temperatures characterise a realised thermal niche narrower than the physiological thermal range. In the most unfavourable climate change scenario, the thermal habitat loss of brown trout increased to 38% (Cega stream) and 11% (Pirón stream) in the upstream direction at the end of the century; however, at the Cega stream, the range reduction could reach 56% due to the effect of a ?warm-window? opening in the piedmont reach.