Wind turbine wakes for wind energy

During recent years, wind energy has moved from an emerging technology to a nearly competitive technology. This fact, coupled with an increasing global focus on environmental concern and a political desire of a certain level of diversification in the energy supply, ensures wind energy an important role in the future electricity market. For this challenge to be met in a cost-efficient way, a substantial part of new wind turbine installations is foreseen to be erected in big onshore or offshore wind farms. This fact makes the production, loading and reliability of turbines operating under such conditions of particular interest.

Comparison of turbulence models for the computational fluid dynamics simulation of wind turbine wakes in the atmospheric boundary layer

An elliptic computational fluid dynamics wake model based on the actuator disk concept is used to simulate a wind turbine, approximated by a disk upon which a distribution of forces, defined as axial momentum sources, is applied on an incoming non-uniform shear flow. The rotor is supposed to be uniformly loaded with the exerted forces estimated as a function of the incident wind speed, thrust coefficient and rotor diameter. The model is assessed in terms of wind speed deficit and added turbulence intensity for different turbulence models and is validated from experimental measurements of the Sexbierum wind turbine experiment.

Analysis of calibration results from cup and propeller anemometers. Influence on wind turbine Annual Energy Production (AEP) calculations

The calibration coefficients of several models of cup and propeller anemometers were analysed. The analysis was based on a series of laboratory calibrations between January 2003 and August 2007. Mean and standard deviation values of calibration coefficients from the anemometers studied were included. Two calibration procedures were used and compared. In the first, recommended by the Measuring network of Wind Energy Institutes (MEASNET), 13 measurement points were taken over a wind speed range of 4 to 16  m  s−1. In the second procedure, 9 measurement points were taken over a wider speed range of 4 to 23  m  s−1. Results indicated no significant differences between the two calibration procedures applied to the same anemometer in terms of measured wind speed and wind turbines' Annual Energy Production (AEP). The influence of the cup anemometers' design on the calibration coefficients was also analysed. The results revealed that the slope of the calibration curve, if based on the rotation frequency and not the anemometer's output frequency, seemed to depend on the cup center rotation radius.

Influence of soil stiffness on the dynamic response of an offshore wind turbine

La industria de la energía eólica marina ha crecido de forma significativa durante los últimos 15 años, y se espera que siga creciendo durante los siguientes. La construcción de torres en aguas cada vez más profundas y el aumento en potencia y tamaño de las turbinas han creado la necesidad de diseñar estructuras de soporte cada vez más fiables y optimizadas, lo que requiere un profundo conocimiento de su comportamiento. Este trabajo se centra en la respuesta dinámica de una turbina marina con cimentación tipo monopilote y sobre la que actúa la fuerza del viento. Se han realizado cálculos con distintas propiedades del suelo para cubrir un rango de rigideces que va desde una arena muy suelta a una muy densa. De este modo se ha analizado la influencia que tiene la rigidez del suelo en el comportamiento de la estructura. Se han llevado a cabo análisis estáticos y dinámicos en un modelo de elementos finitos implementado en Abaqus. El desplazamiento en la cabeza de la torre y la tensión en su base se han obtenido en función de la rigidez del suelo, y con ellos se ha calculado la amplificación dinámica producida cuando la frecuencia natural del sistema suelo‐cimentación torre se aproxima a la frecuencia de la carga. Dos diferentes enfoques a la hora de modelizar el suelo se han comparado: uno utilizando elementos continuos y otro utilizando muelles elásticos no lineales. Por último, un análisis de fiabilidad se ha llevado a cabo con un modelo analítico para calcular la probabilidad de resonancia del sistema, en el que se han considerado las propiedades de rigidez del suelo como variables aleatorias. Offshore wind energy industry has experienced a significant growth over the past 15 years, and it is expected to continue its growth in the coming years. The expansion to increasingly deep waters and the rise in power and size of the turbines have led to a need for more reliable and optimized support designs, which requires an extensive knowledge of the behaviour of these structures. This work focuses on the dynamic response of an offshore wind turbine founded on a monopile and subjected to wind loading. Different soil properties have been considered in order to cover the range of stiffness from a very loose to a very dense sand. In this way, the influence of stiffness on the structure behaviour has been assessed. Static and dynamic analyses have been carried out by means of a finite element model implemented in Abaqus. Head displacement and stress at the tower base have been obtained as functions of soil stiffness, and they have been used to calculate the dynamic amplification that is produced when the natural frequency of the system soil‐foundation‐tower approaches the load frequency. Two different approaches of soil modelling have been compared: soil modelled as a continuum and soil simulated with non linear elastic springs. Finally, a reliability analysis to assess the probability of resonance has been performed with an analytical model, in which soil stiffness properties are considered as stochastic variables.

Desarrollo de un sistema de control por DSP para regular generadores sincronos de imanes permanentes

En el siguiente proyecto se va a llevar a cabo la simulación en la plataforma Matlb Simulink de una maquina síncrona de imanes permanentes (MSIP) en su funcionamiento como generador, emulando un aerogenerador con tecnología SGFC. El generador tendrá como variable de consigna la velocidad de giro del eje y se ajustara el sistema de control para que sea capaz de seguir la señal de consigna ante cambios bruscos del par. Posteriormente se va a detallar y construir todos los elementos que se consideren necesarios para, en proyectos futuros, llevar a la práctica en una maquina real este sistema de control ABSTRACT The object of this Project is to carry a simulation in Matlab Simulink of a synchronous permanent magnets machine (MSIP) in its operation as a generator, emulating a wind turbine technology SGFC. The variable setpoint will be the rotational speed of the shaft, the control system will fit so that it is capable of following the setpoint signal before sudden changes of the pair. Afterward the elements considered necessary for to put into practice this control system in a real machine will be detailed.

Hybrid wind-diesel power plant valuation and optimization using real option theory and dynamic programming

El sistema de energía eólica-diesel híbrido tiene un gran potencial en la prestación de suministro de energía a comunidades remotas. En comparación con los sistemas tradicionales de diesel, las plantas de energía híbridas ofrecen grandes ventajas tales como el suministro de capacidad de energía extra para "microgrids", reducción de los contaminantes y emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero, y la cobertura del riesgo de aumento inesperado del precio del combustible. El principal objetivo de la presente tesis es proporcionar nuevos conocimientos para la evaluación y optimización de los sistemas de energía híbrido eólico-diesel considerando las incertidumbres. Dado que la energía eólica es una variable estocástica, ésta no puede ser controlada ni predecirse con exactitud. La naturaleza incierta del viento como fuente de energía produce serios problemas tanto para la operación como para la evaluación del valor del sistema de energía eólica-diesel híbrido. Por un lado, la regulación de la potencia inyectada desde las turbinas de viento es una difícil tarea cuando opera el sistema híbrido. Por otro lado, el bene.cio económico de un sistema eólico-diesel híbrido se logra directamente a través de la energía entregada a la red de alimentación de la energía eólica. Consecuentemente, la incertidumbre de los recursos eólicos incrementa la dificultad de estimar los beneficios globales en la etapa de planificación. La principal preocupación del modelo tradicional determinista es no tener en cuenta la incertidumbre futura a la hora de tomar la decisión de operación. Con lo cual, no se prevé las acciones operativas flexibles en respuesta a los escenarios futuros. El análisis del rendimiento y simulación por ordenador en el Proyecto Eólico San Cristóbal demuestra que la incertidumbre sobre la energía eólica, las estrategias de control, almacenamiento de energía, y la curva de potencia de aerogeneradores tienen un impacto significativo sobre el rendimiento del sistema. En la presente tesis, se analiza la relación entre la teoría de valoración de opciones y el proceso de toma de decisiones. La opción real se desarrolla con un modelo y se presenta a través de ejemplos prácticos para evaluar el valor de los sistemas de energía eólica-diesel híbridos. Los resultados muestran que las opciones operacionales pueden aportar un valor adicional para el sistema de energía híbrida, cuando esta flexibilidad operativa se utiliza correctamente. Este marco se puede aplicar en la optimización de la operación a corto plazo teniendo en cuenta la naturaleza dependiente de la trayectoria de la política óptima de despacho, dadas las plausibles futuras realizaciones de la producción de energía eólica. En comparación con los métodos de valoración y optimización existentes, el resultado del caso de estudio numérico muestra que la política de operación resultante del modelo de optimización propuesto presenta una notable actuación en la reducción del con- sumo total de combustible del sistema eólico-diesel. Con el .n de tomar decisiones óptimas, los operadores de plantas de energía y los gestores de éstas no deben centrarse sólo en el resultado directo de cada acción operativa, tampoco deberían tomar decisiones deterministas. La forma correcta es gestionar dinámicamente el sistema de energía teniendo en cuenta el valor futuro condicionado en cada opción frente a la incertidumbre. ABSTRACT Hybrid wind-diesel power systems have a great potential in providing energy supply to remote communities. Compared with the traditional diesel systems, hybrid power plants are providing many advantages such as providing extra energy capacity to the micro-grid, reducing pollution and greenhouse-gas emissions, and hedging the risk of unexpected fuel price increases. This dissertation aims at providing novel insights for assessing and optimizing hybrid wind-diesel power systems considering the related uncertainties. Since wind power can neither be controlled nor accurately predicted, the energy harvested from a wind turbine may be considered a stochastic variable. This uncertain nature of wind energy source results in serious problems for both the operation and value assessment of the hybrid wind-diesel power system. On the one hand, regulating the uncertain power injected from wind turbines is a difficult task when operating the hybrid system. On the other hand, the economic profit of a hybrid wind-diesel system is achieved directly through the energy delivered to the power grid from the wind energy. Therefore, the uncertainty of wind resources has increased the difficulty in estimating the total benefits in the planning stage. The main concern of the traditional deterministic model is that it does not consider the future uncertainty when making the dispatch decision. Thus, it does not provide flexible operational actions in response to the uncertain future scenarios. Performance analysis and computer simulation on the San Cristobal Wind Project demonstrate that the wind power uncertainty, control strategies, energy storage, and the wind turbine power curve have a significant impact on the performance of the system. In this dissertation, the relationship between option pricing theory and decision making process is discussed. A real option model is developed and presented through practical examples for assessing the value of hybrid wind-diesel power systems. Results show that operational options can provide additional value to the hybrid power system when this operational flexibility is correctly utilized. This framework can be applied in optimizing short term dispatch decisions considering the path-dependent nature of the optimal dispatch policy, given the plausible future realizations of the wind power production. Comparing with the existing valuation and optimization methods, result from numerical example shows that the dispatch policy resulting from the proposed optimization model exhibits a remarkable performance in minimizing the total fuel consumption of the wind-diesel system. In order to make optimal decisions, power plant operators and managers should not just focus on the direct outcome of each operational action; neither should they make deterministic decisions. The correct way is to dynamically manage the power system by taking into consideration the conditional future value in each option in response to the uncertainty.

Computational and Experimental Modelling of Mooring Lines Dynamics for Offshore Floating Wind Turbines

El cálculo de cargas de aerogeneradores flotantes requiere herramientas de simulación en el dominio del tiempo que consideren todos los fenómenos que afectan al sistema, como la aerodinámica, la dinámica estructural, la hidrodinámica, las estrategias de control y la dinámica de las líneas de fondeo. Todos estos efectos están acoplados entre sí y se influyen mutuamente. Las herramientas integradas se utilizan para calcular las cargas extremas y de fatiga que son empleadas para dimensionar estructuralmente los diferentes componentes del aerogenerador. Por esta razón, un cálculo preciso de las cargas influye de manera importante en la optimización de los componentes y en el coste final del aerogenerador flotante. En particular, el sistema de fondeo tiene gran impacto en la dinámica global del sistema. Muchos códigos integrados para la simulación de aerogeneradores flotantes utilizan modelos simplificados que no consideran los efectos dinámicos de las líneas de fondeo. Una simulación precisa de las líneas de fondeo dentro de los modelos integrados puede resultar fundamental para obtener resultados fiables de la dinámica del sistema y de los niveles de cargas en los diferentes componentes. Sin embargo, el impacto que incluir la dinámica de los fondeos tiene en la simulación integrada y en las cargas todavía no ha sido cuantificada rigurosamente. El objetivo principal de esta investigación es el desarrollo de un modelo dinámico para la simulación de líneas de fondeo con precisión, validarlo con medidas en un tanque de ensayos e integrarlo en un código de simulación para aerogeneradores flotantes. Finalmente, esta herramienta, experimentalmente validada, es utilizada para cuantificar el impacto que un modelos dinámicos de líneas de fondeo tienen en la computación de las cargas de fatiga y extremas de aerogeneradores flotantes en comparación con un modelo cuasi-estático. Esta es una información muy útil para los futuros diseñadores a la hora de decidir qué modelo de líneas de fondeo es el adecuado, dependiendo del tipo de plataforma y de los resultados esperados. El código dinámico de líneas de fondeo desarrollado en esta investigación se basa en el método de los Elementos Finitos, utilizando en concreto un modelo ”Lumped Mass” para aumentar su eficiencia de computación. Los experimentos realizados para la validación del código se realizaron en el tanque del École Céntrale de Nantes (ECN), en Francia, y consistieron en sumergir una cadena con uno de sus extremos anclados en el fondo del tanque y excitar el extremo suspendido con movimientos armónicos de diferentes periodos. El código demostró su capacidad para predecir la tensión y los movimientos en diferentes posiciones a lo largo de la longitud de la línea con gran precisión. Los resultados indicaron la importancia de capturar la dinámica de las líneas de fondeo para la predicción de la tensión especialmente en movimientos de alta frecuencia. Finalmente, el código se utilizó en una exhaustiva evaluación del efecto que la dinámica de las líneas de fondeo tiene sobre las cargas extremas y de fatiga de diferentes conceptos de aerogeneradores flotantes. Las cargas se calcularon para tres tipologías de aerogenerador flotante (semisumergible, ”spar-buoy” y ”tension leg platform”) y se compararon con las cargas obtenidas utilizando un modelo cuasi-estático de líneas de fondeo. Se lanzaron y postprocesaron más de 20.000 casos de carga definidos por la norma IEC 61400-3 siguiendo todos los requerimientos que una entidad certificadora requeriría a un diseñador industrial de aerogeneradores flotantes. Los resultados mostraron que el impacto de la dinámica de las líneas de fondeo, tanto en las cargas de fatiga como en las extremas, se incrementa conforme se consideran elementos situados más cerca de la plataforma: las cargas en la pala y en el eje sólo son ligeramente modificadas por la dinámica de las líneas, las cargas en la base de la torre pueden cambiar significativamente dependiendo del tipo de plataforma y, finalmente, la tensión en las líneas de fondeo depende fuertemente de la dinámica de las líneas, tanto en fatiga como en extremas, en todos los conceptos de plataforma que se han evaluado. ABSTRACT The load calculation of floating offshore wind turbine requires time-domain simulation tools taking into account all the phenomena that affect the system such as aerodynamics, structural dynamics, hydrodynamics, control actions and the mooring lines dynamics. These effects present couplings and are mutually influenced. The results provided by integrated simulation tools are used to compute the fatigue and ultimate loads needed for the structural design of the different components of the wind turbine. For this reason, their accuracy has an important influence on the optimization of the components and the final cost of the floating wind turbine. In particular, the mooring system greatly affects the global dynamics of the floater. Many integrated codes for the simulation of floating wind turbines use simplified approaches that do not consider the mooring line dynamics. An accurate simulation of the mooring system within the integrated codes can be fundamental to obtain reliable results of the system dynamics and the loads. The impact of taking into account the mooring line dynamics in the integrated simulation still has not been thoroughly quantified. The main objective of this research consists on the development of an accurate dynamic model for the simulation of mooring lines, validate it against wave tank tests and then integrate it in a simulation code for floating wind turbines. This experimentally validated tool is finally used to quantify the impact that dynamic mooring models have on the computation of fatigue and ultimate loads of floating wind turbines in comparison with quasi-static tools. This information will be very useful for future designers to decide which mooring model is adequate depending on the platform type and the expected results. The dynamic mooring lines code developed in this research is based in the Finite Element Method and is oriented to the achievement of a computationally efficient code, selecting a Lumped Mass approach. The experimental tests performed for the validation of the code were carried out at the `Ecole Centrale de Nantes (ECN) wave tank in France, consisting of a chain submerged into a water basin, anchored at the bottom of the basin, where the suspension point of the chain was excited with harmonic motions of different periods. The code showed its ability to predict the tension and the motions at several positions along the length of the line with high accuracy. The results demonstrated the importance of capturing the evolution of the mooring dynamics for the prediction of the line tension, especially for the high frequency motions. Finally, the code was used for an extensive assessment of the effect of mooring dynamics on the computation of fatigue and ultimate loads for different floating wind turbines. The loads were computed for three platforms topologies (semisubmersible, spar-buoy and tension leg platform) and compared with the loads provided using a quasi-static mooring model. More than 20,000 load cases were launched and postprocessed following the IEC 61400-3 guideline and fulfilling the conditions that a certification entity would require to an offshore wind turbine designer. The results showed that the impact of mooring dynamics in both fatigue and ultimate loads increases as elements located closer to the platform are evaluated; the blade and the shaft loads are only slightly modified by the mooring dynamics in all the platform designs, the tower base loads can be significantly affected depending on the platform concept and the mooring lines tension strongly depends on the lines dynamics both in fatigue and extreme loads in all the platform concepts evaluated.

Roof region dependent wind potential assessment with different RANS turbulence models.

The analysis of the wind flow around buildings has a great interest from the point of view of the wind energy assessment, pollutant dispersion control, natural ventilation and pedestrians wind comfort and safety. Since LES turbulence models are computationally time consuming when applied to real geometries, RANS models are still widely used. However, RANS models are very sensitive to the chosen turbulence parametrisation and the results can vary according to the application. In this investigation, the simulation of the wind flow around an isolated building is performed using various types of RANS turbulence models in the open source code OpenFOAM, and the results are compared with benchmark experimental data. In order to confirm the numerical accuracy of the simulations, a grid dependency analysis is performed and the convergence index and rate are calculated. Hit rates are calculated for all the cases and the models that successfully pass a validation criterion are analysed at different regions of the building roof, and the most accurate RANS models for the modelling of the flow at each region are identified. The characteristics of the wind flow at each region are also analysed from the point of view of the wind energy generation, and the most adequate wind turbine model for the wind energy exploitation at each region of the building roof is chosen.

Offshore Wind Farms: Foundations and influence on the Littoral Processes

Offshore wind farms are beginning to form part of coastal and marine landscapes located in dynamic surroundings. An integral management model must therefore be applied to achieve not only technical and economic viability of the project but also respect for the environment. Amongst other aspects, the latter calls for an analysis of the possible impact these facilities may have on littoral processes and this requires the differences between littoral processes prior and subsequent to the facility’s construction to be known. The maritime climate, the composition of the coast, lay-out distribution and characteristics of the facility’s components need to be known, particularly foundations as they are the main obstacles waves and currents meet. This article first addresses different aspects related to an offshore wind farm’s influence on the analysis of how it affects littoral dynamics and, because of their importance in this study, pays special attention to foundations. Coastal erosion due to this type of facility is then examined. The main conclusion of this article is that, whilst there are certain opinions claiming the coast is not affected by the presence of this kind of facility since the distance from location to coast and between wind turbine generators themselves is long, the impact must be analysed in each specific case, at least until experience proves otherwise and criteria are adopted in this respect.

Dynamic Response of Wind Turbines to Theoretical 3D Seismic Motions Taking into Account the Rotational Component

We study the dynamic response of a wind turbine structure subjected to theoretical seismic motions, taking into account the rotational component of ground shaking. Models are generated for a shallow moderate crustal earthquake in the Madrid Region (Spain). Synthetic translational and rotational time histories are computed using the Discrete Wavenumber Method, assuming a point source and a horizontal layered earth structure. These are used to analyze the dynamic response of a wind turbine, represented by a simple finite element model. Von Mises stress values at different heights of the tower are used to study the dynamical structural response to a set of synthetic ground motion time histories

Flow and wakes in large wind farms in complex terrain and offshore

Power losses due to wind turbine wakes are of the order of 10 and 20% of total power output in large wind farms. The focus of this research carried out within the EC funded UPWIND project is wind speed and turbulence modelling for large wind farms/wind turbines in complex terrain and offshore in order to optimise wind farm layouts to reduce wake losses and loads.

Analysis and validation of CFD wind farm models in complex terrain. Effects induced by topography and wind turbines

Wind farms have been extensively simulated through engineering models for the estimation of wind speed and power deficits inside wind farms. These models were designed initially for a few wind turbines located in flat terrain. Other models based on the parabolic approximation of Navier Stokes equations were developed, making more realistic and feasible the operational resolution of big wind farms in flat terrain and offshore sites. These models have demonstrated to be accurate enough when solving wake effects for this type of environments. Nevertheless, few analyses exist on how complex terrain can affect the behaviour of wind farm wake flow. Recent numerical studies have demonstrated that topographical wakes induce a significant effect on wind turbines wakes, compared to that on flat terrain. This circumstance has recommended the development of elliptic CFD models which allow global simulation of wind turbine wakes in complex terrain. An accurate simplification for the analysis of wind turbine wakes is the actuator disk technique. Coupling this technique with CFD wind models enables the estimation of wind farm wakes preserving the extraction of axial momentum present inside wind farms. This paper describes the analysis and validation of the elliptical wake model CFDWake 1.0 against experimental data from an operating wind farm located in complex terrain. The analysis also reports whether it is possible or not to superimpose linearly the effect of terrain and wind turbine wakes. It also represents one of the first attempts to observe the performance of engineering models compares in large complex terrain wind farms.

Prediction of wake effects on wind farm power production using a RANS approach. Part II. Offshore: Case studies from the UPWIND project

The estimation of power losses due to wind turbine wakes is crucial to understanding overall wind farm economics. This is especially true for large offshore wind farms, as it represents the primary source of losses in available power, given the regular arrangement of rotors, their generally largerdiameter and the lower ambient turbulence level, all of which conspire to dramatically affect wake expansion and, consequently, the power deficit. Simulation of wake effects in offshore wind farms (in reasonable computational time) is currently feasible using CFD tools. An elliptic CFD model basedon the actuator disk method and various RANS turbulence closure schemes is tested and validated using power ratios extracted from Horns Rev and Nysted wind farms, collected as part of the EU-funded UPWIND project. The primary focus of the present work is on turbulence modeling, as turbulent mixing is the main mechanism for flow recovery inside wind farms. A higher-order approach, based on the anisotropic RSM model, is tested to better take into account the imbalance in the length scales inside and outside of the wake, not well reproduced by current two-equation closure schemes.

Development of a wake model for wind farms based on an open source CFD solver. Strategies on parabolization and turbulence modeling

Wake effect represents one of the most important aspects to be analyzed at the engineering phase of every wind farm since it supposes an important power deficit and an increase of turbulence levels with the consequent decrease of the lifetime. It depends on the wind farm design, wind turbine type and the atmospheric conditions prevailing at the site. Traditionally industry has used analytical models, quick and robust, which allow carry out at the preliminary stages wind farm engineering in a flexible way. However, new models based on Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) are needed. These models must increase the accuracy of the output variables avoiding at the same time an increase in the computational time. Among them, the elliptic models based on the actuator disk technique have reached an extended use during the last years. These models present three important problems in case of being used by default for the solution of large wind farms: the estimation of the reference wind speed upstream of each rotor disk, turbulence modeling and computational time. In order to minimize the consequence of these problems, this PhD Thesis proposes solutions implemented under the open source CFD solver OpenFOAM and adapted for each type of site: a correction on the reference wind speed for the general elliptic models, the semi-parabollic model for large offshore wind farms and the hybrid model for wind farms in complex terrain. All the models are validated in terms of power ratios by means of experimental data derived from real operating wind farms.

Statistical models for short-term wind power ramp forecasting

La predicción de energía eólica ha desempeñado en la última década un papel fundamental en el aprovechamiento de este recurso renovable, ya que permite reducir el impacto que tiene la naturaleza fluctuante del viento en la actividad de diversos agentes implicados en su integración, tales como el operador del sistema o los agentes del mercado eléctrico. Los altos niveles de penetración eólica alcanzados recientemente por algunos países han puesto de manifiesto la necesidad de mejorar las predicciones durante eventos en los que se experimenta una variación importante de la potencia generada por un parque o un conjunto de ellos en un tiempo relativamente corto (del orden de unas pocas horas). Estos eventos, conocidos como rampas, no tienen una única causa, ya que pueden estar motivados por procesos meteorológicos que se dan en muy diferentes escalas espacio-temporales, desde el paso de grandes frentes en la macroescala a procesos convectivos locales como tormentas. Además, el propio proceso de conversión del viento en energía eléctrica juega un papel relevante en la ocurrencia de rampas debido, entre otros factores, a la relación no lineal que impone la curva de potencia del aerogenerador, la desalineación de la máquina con respecto al viento y la interacción aerodinámica entre aerogeneradores. En este trabajo se aborda la aplicación de modelos estadísticos a la predicción de rampas a muy corto plazo. Además, se investiga la relación de este tipo de eventos con procesos atmosféricos en la macroescala. Los modelos se emplean para generar predicciones de punto a partir del modelado estocástico de una serie temporal de potencia generada por un parque eólico. Los horizontes de predicción considerados van de una a seis horas. Como primer paso, se ha elaborado una metodología para caracterizar rampas en series temporales. La denominada función-rampa está basada en la transformada wavelet y proporciona un índice en cada paso temporal. Este índice caracteriza la intensidad de rampa en base a los gradientes de potencia experimentados en un rango determinado de escalas temporales. Se han implementado tres tipos de modelos predictivos de cara a evaluar el papel que juega la complejidad de un modelo en su desempeño: modelos lineales autorregresivos (AR), modelos de coeficientes variables (VCMs) y modelos basado en redes neuronales (ANNs). Los modelos se han entrenado en base a la minimización del error cuadrático medio y la configuración de cada uno de ellos se ha determinado mediante validación cruzada. De cara a analizar la contribución del estado macroescalar de la atmósfera en la predicción de rampas, se ha propuesto una metodología que permite extraer, a partir de las salidas de modelos meteorológicos, información relevante para explicar la ocurrencia de estos eventos. La metodología se basa en el análisis de componentes principales (PCA) para la síntesis de la datos de la atmósfera y en el uso de la información mutua (MI) para estimar la dependencia no lineal entre dos señales. Esta metodología se ha aplicado a datos de reanálisis generados con un modelo de circulación general (GCM) de cara a generar variables exógenas que posteriormente se han introducido en los modelos predictivos. Los casos de estudio considerados corresponden a dos parques eólicos ubicados en España. Los resultados muestran que el modelado de la serie de potencias permitió una mejora notable con respecto al modelo predictivo de referencia (la persistencia) y que al añadir información de la macroescala se obtuvieron mejoras adicionales del mismo orden. Estas mejoras resultaron mayores para el caso de rampas de bajada. Los resultados también indican distintos grados de conexión entre la macroescala y la ocurrencia de rampas en los dos parques considerados. Abstract One of the main drawbacks of wind energy is that it exhibits intermittent generation greatly depending on environmental conditions. Wind power forecasting has proven to be an effective tool for facilitating wind power integration from both the technical and the economical perspective. Indeed, system operators and energy traders benefit from the use of forecasting techniques, because the reduction of the inherent uncertainty of wind power allows them the adoption of optimal decisions. Wind power integration imposes new challenges as higher wind penetration levels are attained. Wind power ramp forecasting is an example of such a recent topic of interest. The term ramp makes reference to a large and rapid variation (1-4 hours) observed in the wind power output of a wind farm or portfolio. Ramp events can be motivated by a broad number of meteorological processes that occur at different time/spatial scales, from the passage of large-scale frontal systems to local processes such as thunderstorms and thermally-driven flows. Ramp events may also be conditioned by features related to the wind-to-power conversion process, such as yaw misalignment, the wind turbine shut-down and the aerodynamic interaction between wind turbines of a wind farm (wake effect). This work is devoted to wind power ramp forecasting, with special focus on the connection between the global scale and ramp events observed at the wind farm level. The framework of this study is the point-forecasting approach. Time series based models were implemented for very short-term prediction, this being characterised by prediction horizons up to six hours ahead. As a first step, a methodology to characterise ramps within a wind power time series was proposed. The so-called ramp function is based on the wavelet transform and it provides a continuous index related to the ramp intensity at each time step. The underlying idea is that ramps are characterised by high power output gradients evaluated under different time scales. A number of state-of-the-art time series based models were considered, namely linear autoregressive (AR) models, varying-coefficient models (VCMs) and artificial neural networks (ANNs). This allowed us to gain insights into how the complexity of the model contributes to the accuracy of the wind power time series modelling. The models were trained in base of a mean squared error criterion and the final set-up of each model was determined through cross-validation techniques. In order to investigate the contribution of the global scale into wind power ramp forecasting, a methodological proposal to identify features in atmospheric raw data that are relevant for explaining wind power ramp events was presented. The proposed methodology is based on two techniques: principal component analysis (PCA) for atmospheric data compression and mutual information (MI) for assessing non-linear dependence between variables. The methodology was applied to reanalysis data generated with a general circulation model (GCM). This allowed for the elaboration of explanatory variables meaningful for ramp forecasting that were utilized as exogenous variables by the forecasting models. The study covered two wind farms located in Spain. All the models outperformed the reference model (the persistence) during both ramp and non-ramp situations. Adding atmospheric information had a noticeable impact on the forecasting performance, specially during ramp-down events. Results also suggested different levels of connection between the ramp occurrence at the wind farm level and the global scale.