The influence of economic incentives linked to road safety indicators on accidents: The case of toll concessions in Spain

The goal of this paper is to evaluate whether the incentives incorporated in toll highway concession contracts in order to encourage private operators to adopt measures to reduce accidents are actually effective at improving safety. To this end, we implemented negative binomial regression models using information about highway characteristics and accident data from toll highway concessions in Spain from 2007 to 2009. Our results show that even though road safety is highly influenced by variables that are not managed by the contractor, such as the annual average daily traffic (AADT), the percentage of heavy vehicles on the highway, number of lanes, number of intersections and average speed; the implementation of these incentives has a positive influence on the reduction of accidents and injuries. Consequently, this measure seems to be an effective way of improving safety performance in road networks.

Impact of the Economic Recession on Toll Highway Concessions in Spain

After joining the European Union in 1986, Spain experienced steady economic growth that enabled the country to grow at a greater pace than other European countries. During this period, the government of Spain opted for major investments in public infrastructure by taking advantage both of the funding provided by the European Union and of several types of public-private-partnership (PPP) approaches. Within this framework, the government of Spain between 1996 and 2004 procured a series of toll highway concessions. These concessions entered into operation a few years before the global economic recession made itself felt in Spain. The concession contracts signed between the government and some private consortia allocated most of the risks (expropriation, construction, and traffic) to the private sector. In this paper the impact that the economic recession has had on the business performance of the concessionaires is assessed, and the effectiveness of the measures adopted by the government to help the concessionaire to avoid bankruptcy is analyzed. It was found that some of the guarantees offered by the legal framework to the concessionaires in case of bankruptcy are prompting an outcome that could negatively affect the users. In addition to that, some suggestions as to how to better allocate risk in toll highway concessions in the future are provided.

Optimization of water procurement decisions in an irrigation district: the role of option contracts

Water supply instability is one of the main risks faced by irrigation districts and farmers. Water procurement decision optimisation is essential in order to increase supply reliability and reduce costs. Water markets, such as spot purchases or water supply option contracts, can make this decision process more flexible. We analyse the potential interest in an option contract for an irrigation district that has access to several water sources. We apply a stochastic recursive mathematical programming model to simulate the water procurement decisions of an irrigation district?s board operating in a context of water supply uncertainty in south-eastern Spain. We analyse what role different option contracts could play in securing its water supply. Results suggest that the irrigation district would be willing to accept the proposed option contract in most cases subject to realistic values of the option contract financial terms. Of nine different water sources, desalination and the option contract are the main substitutes, where the use of either depends on the contract parameters. The contract premium and optioned volume are the variables that have a greater impact on the irrigation district?s decisions. Key words: Segura Basin, stochastic recursive programming, water markets, water supply option contract, water supply risk.

Evaluation of the influence of toll systems on energy consumption and CO2 emissions: A case study of a Spanish highway

This paper studies the energy consumption and subsequent CO2 emissions of road highway transportation under three toll systems in Spain for four categories of vehicles: cars, vans, buses and articulated trucks. The influence of toll systems is tested for a section of AP-41 highway between Toledo and Madrid. One system is free flow, other is traditional stop and go and the last toll system operates with an electronic toll collection (ETC) technology. Energy consumption and CO2 emissions were found to be closely related to vehicle mass, wind exposure, engine efficiency and acceleration rate. These parameters affect, directly or indirectly, the external forces which determine the energy consumption. Reducing the magnitude of these forces through an appropriate toll management is an important way of improving the energy performance of vehicles. The type of toll system used can have a major influence on the energy efficiency of highway transportation and therefore it is necessary to consider free flow.

Metodología para la evaluación de la consistencia del trazado de carreteras interurbanas de dos carriles

La consistencia del trazado puede interpretarse como la relación entre las características geométricas de una carretera y lo que espera encontrar el conductor que circula por ella. Si hay una correspondencia entre estos dos aspectos, la conducción puede hacerse de modo continuo, sin sobresaltos, lo que incide favorablemente sobre la seguridad en la circulación. Si bien hay una serie de recomendaciones desde el punto de vista geométrico para obtener trazados consistentes, esto no siempre se logra, y sólo en los últimos años se ha iniciado el estudio de metodologías para evaluar ésto, tanto en vías existentes como en vías proyectadas. La mayor parte de estas metodologías sólo considera el trazado en planta, olvidándose del trazado en alzado y de la coordinación entre los mismos. En esta Tesis doctoral se ha desarrollado una metodología para evaluar la consistencia del trazado en carreteras interurbanas de dos carriles que considera dichos aspectos. Para ello, se hizo un análisis exhaustivo de los índices de trazado, los cuales evalúan las características geométricas en planta y en alzado. Los índices se correlacionaron con la accidentalidad, para determinar cuál de ellos tiene mayor incidencia, encontrándose que es el cambio de curvatura vertical (VCCR); a este índice se le estableció un rango de calificación. Como elemento de evaluación complementario de análisis se seleccionó el perfil de velocidades de operación, procedimiento que ha sido probado en diferentes investigaciones, y del cual se desarrolló un modelo aplicado a Colombia. Para la coordinación de trazados en planta y alzado se evaluaron diferentes combinaciones geométricas, algunas de las cuales generaron reapariciones del trazado. Se ha definido un nuevo índice (Irt) que permite determinar numéricamente la posibilidad de que se presente esta situación, indeseable desde el punto de vista de la seguridad vial. La combinación de estos tres elementos permite una evaluación integral de los diferentes aspectos que inciden sobre la consistencia del trazado de una carretera. La metodología desarrollada se aplicó en el estudio de consistencia del trazado en algunas carreteras españolas y colombianas, ubicadas en distintos tipos de terreno. ABSTRACT Geometric Design Consistency can be defined as the relationship between the geometric characteristics of a road and what the driver expects to find when driving. If there is a correspondence between these two aspects, driving is smoother and unexpected events are minimized, which increases traffic safety conditions. Although from the geometric point of view there are several recommendations to ensure consistent designs, this is not always successfully applied. The study of methods to evaluate design consistency in existing and future routes has only begun in recent years. Most existing methods only consider the horizontal alignment of the road and overlook both the vertical alignment and the coordination that must exist between the vertical and the horizontal. The present Doctoral Thesis proposes a method to evaluate the geometric design consistency of a two-lane rural highway which considers all three of these aspects: the horizontal alignment, the vertical alignment and the coordination that must exist between them. In order to achieve this, several different alignment indices, that evaluate horizontal and vertical geometric characteristics, were thoroughly analyzed to determine their correlation with traffic accidents. The Vertical Curvature Change Rate (VCCR) index showed the highest correlation, and rating thresholds for this index have been established. To complement the evaluation, the operating speed profile, was chosen. This procedure has been extensively tested by several researchers. An operating speed prediction model adapted to Colombia was developed. To study the coordination between the horizontal and the vertical alignments of the road, several geometric combinations of the two were used. Some of these combinations generate undesirable losses of visibility. For this reason, a new index (Irt) was defined to numerically detect those cases, which are undesirable from the point of view of traffic safety. The combination of these three factors allows a comprehensive evaluation of the different aspects that affect the geometric design consistency of a highway. The methodology was applied to some Spanish and Colombian roads located in different types of terrain.

The secret to legal foretelling: generic and inter-generic aspects of vagueness in contracts, patents and regulations

In this genre analysis research paper, we compare U.S. patents, contracts, and regulations on technical matters with a focus upon the relation between vagueness and communicative purposes and subpurposes of these three genres. Our main interest is the investigation of intergeneric conventions across the three genres, based on the software analysis of three corpora (one for each genre, 1 million words per corpus). The result of the investigation is that intergeneric conventions are found at the level of types of expressed linguistic vagueness, but that intergeneric conventions at the level of actual formulations are rare. The conclusion is that at this latter level the influence from the situation type underlying the individual genre is more important than the overarching legal character of the genres, when we talk about introducing explicit vagueness in the text.

Risk Allocation in Toll Highway Concessions in Spain: Lessons from Economic Recession

Spain has a long tradition of encouraging toll highways by granting concessions to private companies. Concessions in Spain have been characterized by a willingness to transfer considerable risk to the private sector. Traffic demand, acquisition of the right-of-way, and financial risk have often been allocated to the private sector. From 1996 to 2011, 16 toll highway concessions, covering a total distance of 835 km, were awarded by the central government of Spain with this approach. Some of those highways started their operations just before the economic recession began. The recession had negative consequences for Spain's economy. The gross domestic product per capita plummeted, and the unemployment rate increased from 9% to 20% of the working population in just 2 years. The recession also had severe consequences for the economic performance of toll highway concessions. Traffic levels declined at a much greater rate than did the gross domestic product. In addition, the conditions imposed by the financial markets on borrowers became much stricter because of the liquidity crisis. This study analyzes the impact that the economic recession ultimately had on the performance of toll highway concessions in Spain and the actions that the government adopted to avoid the bankruptcy of the concessionaires. It was found that the economic recession helped identify some deficiencies in how risk had been allocated in Spain. The measures that both Spain and the European Union are adopting so as to improve risk allocation are discussed.

Quantity of CO2 Emissions in the Life Cycle of a Highway Infrastructure

There is strong evidence to indicate that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are accumulating at unprecedented concentrations in out atmosphere contributing to global climate change. Evidence is equally strong that human activities, mainly the burning of fossil fuels, are driving force in this process (IPCC 2007). While different industries contribute varying amounts to total anthropogenic greenhouse gases, it is incumbent upon each to understand its contribution and search for sensible ways to reduce overall greenhouse gas production. The aim of this paper is the development of a methodology to determine the amount of CO2 emissions of a highway, allowing providing solutions that can improve the energy footprint and reduce its emissions

Analysis of road safety incentives in highway concessions in Spain

Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) are mostly implemented for three reasons: to circumvent budgetary constraints, encourage efficiency and improvement of quality in the provision of public infrastructure. One of the ways of reaching the latter objective is by the introduction of performance-based standards tied to bonuses and penalties to reward or punish the performance of the contractor. These performance based standards often refer to different aspects such as technical, environmental and safety issues. This paper focuses on the implementation of safety based incentives in PPPs. The main aim of this paper is to analyze whether the incentives to improve road safety in PPPs are effective in improving safety ratios in Spain. To this end, negative binomial regression models have been applied using information from the Spanish high capacity network in 2006. The findings indicate that even though road safety is highly influenced by variables that are not much controllable by the contractor such as the Average Annual Daily Traffic and the percentage of heavy vehicles in the highway, the implementation of safety incentives in PPPs has a positive influence in the reduction of fatalities, injuries and accidents.

Effectiveness of safety-based incentives in Public Private Partnerships: Evidence from the case of Spain

Many countries around the world are implementing Public?Private?Partnership (PPP) contacts to manage road infrastructure. In some of these contracts the public sector introduces economic incentives to the private operator to foster the accomplishment of social goals. One of the incentives that have been introduced in some PPP contracts is related to safety in such a way that the better the safety outcome the greater will be the economic reward to the contractor. The aim of this paper is at identify whether the incentives to improve road safety in highway PPPs are ultimately effective in improving safety ratios. To this end Poisson and negative binomial regression models have been applied using information from highway sections in Spain. The findings indicate that even though road safety is highly influenced by variables that are not much controllable by the contractor such as the Average Annual Daily Traffic and the percentage of heavy vehicles, the implementation of safety incentives in PPPs has a positive influence in the reduction of fatalities, injuries and accidents.

Unit Root Analysis of Traffic Time Series in Toll Highways

Concession contracts in highways often include some kind of clauses (for example, a minimum traffic guarantee) that allow for better management of the business risks. The value of these clauses may be important and should be added to the total value of the concession. However, in these cases, traditional valuation techniques, like the NPV (net present value) of the project, are insufficient. An alternative methodology for the valuation of highway concession is one based on the real options approach. This methodology is generally built on the assumption of the evolution of traffic volume as a GBM (geometric Brownian motion), which is the hypothesis analyzed in this paper. First, a description of the methodology used for the analysis of the existence of unit roots (i.e., the hypothesis of non-stationarity) is provided. The Dickey-Fuller approach has been used, which is the most common test for this kind of analysis. Then this methodology is applied to perform a statistical analysis of traffic series in Spanish toll highways. For this purpose, data on the AADT (annual average daily traffic) on a set of highways have been used. The period of analysis is around thirty years in most cases. The main outcome of the research is that the hypothesis that traffic volume follows a GBM process in Spanish toll highways cannot be rejected. This result is robust, and therefore it can be used as a starting point for the application of the real options theory to assess toll highway concessions.

Sewage sludge gasification. Dolomite performance under different operating conditions

Gasification is a technology that can replace traditional management alternatives used up to date to deal with this waste (landfilling, composting and incineration) and which fulfils the social, environmental and legislative requirements. The main products of sewage sludge gasification are permanent gases (useful to generate energy or to be used as raw material in chemical synthesis processes), liquids (tars) and char. One of the main problems to be solved in gasification is tar production. Tars are organic impurities which can condense at relatively high temperatures making impossible to use the produced gases for most applications. This work deals with the effect of some primary tar removal processes (performed inside the gasifier) on sewage sludge gasification products. For this purpose, analysis of the gas composition, tar production, cold gas efficiency and carbon conversion were carried out. The tests were performed with air in a laboratory scale plant consisting mainly of a bubbling bed gasifier. No catalyzed and catalyzed (10% wt of dolomite in the bed and in the feeding) tests were carried out at different temperatures (750ºC, 800ºC and 850ºC) in order to know the effect of these parameters in the gasification products. As far as tars were concerned, qualitative and quantitative tar composition was determined. In all tests the Equivalence Ratio (ER) was kept at 0.3. Temperature is one of the most influential variables in sewage sludge gasification. Higher temperatures favoured hydrogen and CO production while CO2 content decreased, which might be partially explained by the effect of the cracking, Boudouard and CO2 reforming reactions. At 850ºC, cold gas efficiency and carbon conversion reached 49% and 76%, respectively. The presence of dolomite as catalyst increased the production of H2 reaching contents of 15.5% by volume at 850 °C. Similar behaviour was found for CO whereas CO2 and CnHm (light hydrocarbons) production decreased. In the presence of dolomite, a tar reduction of up to 51% was reached in comparison with no catalyzed tests, as well as improvements on cold gas efficiency and carbon conversion. Several assays were developed in order to test catalyst performance under more rough gasification conditions. For this purpose, the throughput value (TR), defined as kg sludge “as received” fed to the gasifier per hour and per m2 of cross sectional area of the gasifier, was modified. Specifically, the TR values used were 110 (reference value), 215 and 322 kg/h·m2. When TR increased, the H2, CO and CH4 production decreased while the CO2 and the CnHm production increased. Tar production increased drastically with TR during no catalysed tests what is related to the lower residence time of the gas inside the reactor. Nevertheless, even at TR=322 kg/h·m2, tar production decreased by nearly 50% with in-bed use of dolomite in comparison with no catalyzed assays under the same operating conditions. Regarding relative tar composition, there was an increase in benzene and naphthalene content when temperature increased while the content of the rest of compounds decreased. The dolomite seemed to be effective all over the range of molecular weight studied showing tar removal efficiencies between 35-55% in most cases. High values of the TR caused a significant increase in tar production but a slight effect on tar composition.

On track for solar grade silicon through a siemens process-type laboratory reactor: operating conditions and energy savings

Polysilicon cost impacts significantly on the photovoltaics (PV) cost and on the energy payback time. Nowadays, the besetting production process is the so called Siemens process, polysilicon deposition by chemical vapor deposition (CVD) from Trichlorosilane. Polysilicon purification level for PV is to a certain extent less demanding that for microelectronics. At the Instituto de Energía Solar (IES) research on this subject is performed through a Siemens process-type laboratory reactor. Through the laboratory CVD prototype at the IES laboratories, valuable information about the phenomena involved in the polysilicon deposition process and the operating conditions is obtained. Polysilicon deposition by CVD is a complex process due to the big number of parameters involved. A study on the influence of temperature and inlet gas mixture composition on the polysilicon deposition growth rate, based on experimental experience, is shown. Moreover, CVD process accounts for the largest contribution to the energy consumption of the polysilicon production. In addition, radiation phenomenon is the major responsible for low energetic efficiency of the whole process. This work presents a model of radiation heat loss, and the theoretical calculations are confirmed experimentally through a prototype reactor at our disposal, yielding a valuable know-how for energy consumption reduction at industrial Siemens reactors.

Analysis of the operating efficiency of mobile operators during the 2002 to 2008 period

This article aims to quantify the efficiency of mobile operators in Spain and other European countries such as France and Germany. The period considered is from 2002 to 2008. Linear regression is used to analyze the relationship between growth in revenue and gross operating margin (EBITDA) generated by the relevant operators and the aggregate industry in each country. At the industry level, it is shown that (i) there is a strong correlation between revenue and margin; and (ii) this correlation weakens when competitive intensity grows. At the operator level, those which achieved larger increases in revenues did not sacrifice their margins, but offset the additional investments and costs required to achieve said growth through economies of scale.

Energy consumption and intensity of toll highway transport in Spain

We estimate the energy consumption of toll highway transport on a number of Spanish roads. Regression parameters are balanced according to coefficients from an empirical analysis based on survey data by vehicle type. The mean energy consumption and subsequent CO2 emissions on the toll highway sections are estimated as 1895 MJ/h/lane-km and 0.15 tCO2 eq./h/lane-km, values that increase to 2644 and 0.22 when energy and carbon emissions of transport infrastructure are considered based on the life cycle energy consumption for toll highway construction and use. If the energy intensity of infrastructure construction is allocated to the users according to traffic, it is much higher for motorcycles than for cars, and is significantly lower for articulated trucks than for vans.