Mathematical models for the arrangement and the cleaning of the river basin and surroundings of the river sandy grounds to its passage by the city of Salta (Argentina)

The province of Salta is located the Northwest of Argentina in the border with Bolivia, Chile and Paraguay. Its Capital is the city of Salta that concentrates half of the inhabitants of the province and has grown to 600000 hab., from a small active Spanish town well founded in 1583. The city is crossed by the Arenales River descending from close mountains at North, source of water and end of sewers. But with actual growing it has become a focus of infection and of remarkable unhealthiness. It is necessary to undertake a plan for the recovery of the river, directed to the attainment of the well-being and to improve the life?s quality of the Community. The fundamental idea of the plan is to obtain an ordering of the river basin and an integral management of the channel and its surroundings, including the cleaning out. The improvement of the water?s quality, the healthiness of the surroundings and the improvement of the environment, must go hand by hand with the development of sport activities, of relaxation, tourism, establishment of breeding grounds, kitchen gardens, micro enterprises with clean production and other actions that contribute to their benefit by the society, that being a basic factor for their care and sustainable use. The present pollution is organic, chemical, industrial, domestic, due to the disposition of sweepings and sewer effluents that affects not only the flora and small fauna, destroying the biodiversity, but also to the health of people living in their margins. Within the plan it will be necessary to consider, besides hydric and environmental cleaning and the prevention of floods, the planning of the extraction of aggregates, the infrastructure and consolidation of margins works and the arrangement of all the river basin. It will be necessary to consider the public intervention at state, provincial and local level, and the private intervention. In the model it has been necessary to include the sub-model corresponding to the election of the entity to be the optimal instrument to reach the proposed objectives, giving an answer to the social, environmental and economic requirements. For that the authors have used multi-criteria decision methods to qualify and select alternatives, and for the programming of their implementation. In the model the authors have contemplated the short, average and long term actions. They conform a Paretooptimal alternative which secures the ordering, integral and suitable management of the basin of the Arenales River, focusing on its passage by the city of Salta.

Spatial and temporal precipitation patterns of the Ebro River Basin, Spain

The Ebro River Basin, with around 85 000 km2 and located in NE Spain, is characterized by the high spatial heterogeneity of its geology, topography, climatology and land use. Rainfall is one of the most important climatic variables studied owing to its non-homogenous behaviour in event and intensity, which creates drought, water runoff and soil erosion with negative environmental and social consequences. In this work we characterized the rainfall variability pattern in the Ebro River Basin using universal multifractal (UM) analysis, which estimates the concentration of the data around the precipitation average (C1, codimension average), the degree of multiscaling behaviour in time (? index) and the maximum probable singularity in the rainfall distribution ( s). A spatial and temporal analysis of the UM parameters is applied to study the possible changes. With this porpoise, 60 daily rainfall series were selected from 132 synthetic series generated by Luna and Balairón (AEMet). These daily rainfall series present a length of 60 years, from 1950 to 2009. Each one of them was subdivided (1950?1970 and 1980?2009) to analyse the difference between the two periods. The range of variation of precipitation amounts and the frequency of dry events between both periods are discussed, as well as the evolution of the UM parameters through the years.

Frequency and Intensity of drought events over Ebro River basin.

Lately, several researchers have pointed out that climate change is expected to increase temperatures and lower rainfall in Mediterranean regions, simultaneously increasing the intensity of extreme rainfall events. These changes could have consequences regarding rainfall regime, erosion, sediment transport and water quality, soil management, and new designs in diversion ditches. Climate change is expected to result in increasingly unpredictable and variable rainfall, in amount and timing, changing seasonal patterns and increasing the frequency of extreme weather events. Consequently, the evolution of frequency and intensity of drought periods is of most important as in agro-ecosystems many processes will be affected by them. Realising the complex and important consequences of an increasing frequency of extreme droughts at the Ebro River basin, our aim is to study the evolution of drought events at this site statistically, with emphasis on the occurrence and intensity of them. For this purpose, fourteen meteorological stations were selected based on the length of the rainfall series and the climatic classification to obtain a representative untreated dataset from the river basin. Daily rainfall series from 1957 to 2002 were obtained from each meteorological station and no-rain period frequency as the consecutive numbers of days were extracted. Based on this data, we study changes in the probability distribution in several sub-periods. Moreover we used the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for identification of drought events in a year scale and then we use this index to fit log-linear models to the contingency tables between the SPI index and the sub-periods, this adjusted is carried out with the help of ANOVA inference.

Integration of research advances in modelling and monitoring in support of WFD river basin management planning in the context of climate change

The integration of scientific knowledge about possible climate change impacts on water resources has a direct implication on the way water policies are being implemented and evolving. This is particularly true regarding various technical steps embedded into the EU Water Framework Directive river basin management planning, such as risk characterisation, monitoring, design and implementation of action programmes and evaluation of the "good status" objective achievements (in 2015). The need to incorporate climate change considerations into the implementation of EU water policy is currently discussed with a wide range of experts and stakeholders at EU level. Research trends are also on-going, striving to support policy developments and examining how scientific findings and recommendations could be best taken on board by policy-makers and water managers within the forthcoming years. This paper provides a snapshot of policy discussions about climate change in the context of the WFD river basin management planning and specific advancements of related EU-funded research projects. Perspectives for strengthening links among the scientific and policy-making communities in this area are also highlighted.

The water footprint of a river basin with a special focus on groundwater: The case of Guadalquivir basin (Spain).

In addition to revealing the hidden link between products or consumption patterns of populations and their needs in terms of water resources, the water footprint (WF) indicator generates new debates and solutions on water management at basin scale. This paper analyses the green and blue WF of the Guadalquivir basin and its integration with environmental water consumption, with a special emphasis on the WF from groundwater and its consequences on current and future depletion of surface water. In a normal year, green WF (agriculture and pastures) amounts to 190 mm on a total green water consumption of 410 mm, while the blue WF (50 mm) represents half of the total blue water flows. This constitutes a first overview and alternative interpretations of the WF as human water appropriation are introduced. The blue WF is almost entirely associated to agriculture (40 mm). The presentation of its evolution over the period 1997?2008 reveals the rising WF from groundwater (13 mm in 2008), 86% being current consumption of surface flows. This evolution is particularly ascribed to the recent development of irrigated olive groves from groundwater. To prevent a higher pressure on the environment, this new use, like all others (thermo-solar plants, tourism, etc.), could have been obtained from the reallocation of water from crops with low water productivity. It means that water is not lacking in the Guadalquivir basin if the governance setting integrates more flexibility and equity in the allocation of water to address climatic variability and the emergence of new demands.

Direct and indirect economic impacts of drought in the agri-food sector in the Ebro River basin (Spain).

The economic evaluation of drought impacts is essential in order to define efficient and sustainable management and mitigation strategies. The aim of this study is to evaluate the economic impacts of a drought event on the agricultural sector and measure how they are transmitted from primary production to industrial output and related employment. We fit econometric models to determine the magnitude of the economic loss attributable to water storage. The direct impacts of drought on agricultural productivity are measured through a direct attribution model. Indirect impacts on agricultural employment and the agri-food industry are evaluated through a nested indirect attribution model. The transmission of water scarcity effects from agricultural production to macroeconomic variables is measured through chained elasticities. The models allow for differentiating the impacts deriving from water scarcity from other sources of economic losses. Results show that the importance of drought impacts are less relevant at the macroeconomic level, but are more significant for those activities directly dependent on water abstractions and precipitation. From a management perspective, implications of these findings are important to develop effective mitigation strategies to reduce drought risk exposure.

Supporting decision making under uncertainty: Development of a participatory integrated model for water management in the middle Guadiana river basin.

Following the Integrated Water Resources Management approach, the European Water Framework Directive demands Member States to develop water management plans at the catchment level. Those plans have to integrate the different interests and must be developed with stakeholder participation. To face these requirements, managers need tools to assess the impacts of possible management alternatives on natural and socio-economic systems. These tools should ideally be able to address the complexity and uncertainties of the water system, while serving as a platform for stakeholder participation. The objective of our research was to develop a participatory integrated assessment model, based on the combination of a crop model, an economic model and a participatory Bayesian network, with an application in the middle Guadiana sub-basin, in Spain. The methodology is intended to capture the complexity of water management problems, incorporating the relevant sectors, as well as the relevant scales involved in water management decision making. The integrated model has allowed us testing different management, market and climate change scenarios and assessing the impacts of such scenarios on the natural system (crops), on the socio-economic system (farms) and on the environment (water resources). Finally, this integrated assessment modelling process has allowed stakeholder participation, complying with the main requirements of current European water laws.

Participatory modelling to support decision making in water management under uncertainty: Two comparative case studies in the Guadiana river basin, Spain.

A participatory modelling process has been conducted in two areas of the Guadiana river (the upper and the middle sub-basins), in Spain, with the aim of providing support for decision making in the water management field. The area has a semi-arid climate where irrigated agriculture plays a key role in the economic development of the region and accounts for around 90% of water use. Following the guidelines of the European Water Framework Directive, we promote stakeholder involvement in water management with the aim to achieve an improved understanding of the water system and to encourage the exchange of knowledge and views between stakeholders in order to help building a shared vision of the system. At the same time, the resulting models, which integrate the different sectors and views, provide some insight of the impacts that different management options and possible future scenarios could have. The methodology is based on a Bayesian network combined with an economic model and, in the middle Guadiana sub-basin, with a crop model. The resulting integrated modelling framework is used to simulate possible water policy, market and climate scenarios to find out the impacts of those scenarios on farm income and on the environment. At the end of the modelling process, an evaluation questionnaire was filled by participants in both sub-basins. Results show that this type of processes are found very helpful by stakeholders to improve the system understanding, to understand each others views and to reduce conflict when it exists. In addition, they found the model an extremely useful tool to support management. The graphical interface, the quantitative output and the explicit representation of uncertainty helped stakeholders to better understand the implications of the scenario tested. Finally, the combination of different types of models was also found very useful, as it allowed exploring in detail specific aspects of the water management problems.

Change of extreme rainfall indexes at Ebro River Basin

The purpose of this work is to provide a description of the heavy rainfall phenomenon on statistical tools from a Spanish region. We want to quantify the effect of the climate change to verify the rapidity of its evolution across the variation of the probability distributions. Our conclusions have special interest for the agrarian insurances, which may make estimates of costs more realistically. In this work, the analysis mainly focuses on: The distribution of consecutive days without rain for each gauge stations and season. We estimate density Kernel functions and Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) for a network of station from the Ebro River basin until a threshold value u. We can establish a relation between distributional parameters and regional characteristics. Moreover we analyze especially the tail of the probability distribution. These tails are governed by law of power means that the number of events n can be expressed as the power of another quantity x : n(x) = x? . ? can be estimated as the slope of log-log plot the number of events and the size. The most convenient way to analyze n(x) is using the empirical probability distribution. Pr(X mayor que x) ? x-?. The distribution of rainfall over percentile of order 0.95 from wet days at the seasonal scale and in a yearly scale with the same treatment of tails than in the previous section.

A Landscape-based Regionalization of Natural Flow Regimes in the Ebro River Basin and its Biological Validation. River Research and Applications

Regionalización de tipos de régimen natural de caudales en la cuenca del Ebro y validación biológica de los tipos de regímen natural.

Modelización de servicios ecosistémicos en una cuenca hidrológica del área mediterránea = Modeling ecosystem services in a mediterranean area river basin

La modelización es un proceso por el que se obtienen modelos de los procesos del ´mundo real´ mediante la utilización de simplificaciones. Sin embargo, las estimaciones obtenidas con el modelo llevan implícitas incertidumbre que se debe evaluar. Mediante un análisis de sensibilidad se puede mejorar la confianza en los resultados, sin embargo, este paso a veces no se realiza debido básicamente al trabajo que lleva consigo este tipo de análisis. Además, al crear un modelo, hay que mantener un equilibrio entre la obtención de resultados lo más exactos posible mediante un modelo lo más sencillo posible. Por ello, una vez creado un modelo, es imprescindible comprobar si es necesario o no incluir más procesos que en un principio no se habían incluido. Los servicios ecosistémicos son los procesos mediante los cuales los ecosistemas mantienen y satisfacen el bienestar humano. La importancia que los servicios ecosistémicos y sus beneficios asociados tienen, junto con la necesidad de realizar una buena gestión de los mismos, han estimulado la aparición de modelos y herramientas para cuantificarlos. InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradoffs) es una de estas herramientas específicas para calcular servicios eco-sistémicos, desarrollada por Natural Capital Project (Universidad de Stanford, EEUU). Como resultado del creciente interés en calcular los servicios eco-sistémicos, se prevé un incremento en la aplicación del InVEST. La investigación desarrollada en esta Tesis pretende ayudar en esas otras importantes fases necesarias después de la creación de un modelo, abarcando los dos siguientes trabajos. El primero es la aplicación de un análisis de sensibilidad al modelo en una cuenca concreta mediante la metodología más adecuada. El segundo es relativo a los procesos dentro de la corriente fluvial que actualmente no se incluyen en el modelo mediante la creación y aplicación de una metodología que estudiara el papel que juegan estos procesos en el modelo InVEST de retención de nutrientes en el área de estudio. Los resultados de esta Tesis contribuirán a comprender la incertidumbre involucrada en el proceso de modelado. También pondrá de manifiesto la necesidad de comprobar el comportamiento de un modelo antes de utilizarlo y en el momento de interpretar los resultados obtenidos. El trabajo en esta Tesis contribuirá a mejorar la plataforma InVEST, que es una herramienta importante en el ámbito de los servicios de los ecosistemas. Dicho trabajo beneficiará a los futuros usuarios de la herramienta, ya sean investigadores (en investigaciones futuras), o técnicos (en futuros trabajos de toma de decisiones o gestión ecosistemas). ABSTRACT Modeling is the process to idealize real-world situations through simplifications in order to obtain a model. However, model estimations lead to uncertainties that have to be evaluated formally. The role of the sensitivity analysis (SA) is to assign model output uncertainty based on the inputs and can increase confidence in model, however, it is often omitted in modelling, usually as a result of the growing effort it involves. In addition, the balance between accuracy and simplicity is not easy to assess. For this reason, when a model is developed, it is necessary to test it in order to understand its behavior and to include, if necessary, more complexity to get a better response. Ecosystem services are the conditions and processes through which natural ecosystems, and their constituent species, sustain and fulfill human life. The relevance of ecosystem services and the need to better manage them and their associated benefits have stimulated the emergence of models and tools to measure them. InVEST, Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradoffs, is one of these ecosystem services-specific tools developed by the Natural Capital Project (Stanford University, USA). As a result of the growing interest in measuring ecosystem services, the use of InVEST is anticipated to grow exponentially in the coming years. However, apart from model development, making a model involves other crucial stages such as its evaluation and application in order to validate estimations. The work developed in this thesis tries to help in this relevant and imperative phase of the modeling process, and does so in two different ways. The first one is to conduct a sensitivity analysis of the model, which consists in choosing and applying a methodology in an area and analyzing the results obtained. The second is related to the in-stream processes that are not modeled in the current model, and consists in creating and applying a methodology for testing the streams role in the InVEST nutrient retention model in a case study, analyzing the results obtained. The results of this Thesis will contribute to the understanding of the uncertainties involved in the modeling process. It will also illustrate the need to check the behavior of every model developed before putting them in production and illustrate the importance of understanding their behavior in terms of correctly interpreting the results obtained in light of uncertainty. The work in this thesis will contribute to improve the InVEST platform, which is an important tool in the field of ecosystem services. Such work will benefit future users, whether they are researchers (in their future research), or technicians (in their future work in ecosystem conservation or management decisions).

Guidelines for the design of an environmental flow regime program at the regional scale: Application of the ELOHA framework in the Ebro River basin

La gestión de los recursos hídricos se convierte en un reto del presente y del futuro frente a un panorama de continuo incremento de la demanda de agua debido al crecimiento de la población, el crecimiento del desarrollo económico y los posibles efectos del calentamiento global. La política hidráulica desde los años 60 en España se ha centrado en la construcción de infraestructuras que han producido graves alteraciones en el régimen natural de los ríos. Estas alteraciones han provocado y acrecentado los impactos sobre los ecosistemas fluviales y ribereños. Desde los años 90, sin embargo, ha aumentado el interés de la sociedad para conservar estos ecosistemas. El concepto de caudales ambientales consiste en un régimen de caudales que simula las características principales del régimen natural. Los caudales ambientales están diseñados para conservar la estructura y funcionalidad de los ecosistemas asociados al régimen fluvial, bajo la hipótesis de que los elementos que conforman estos ecosistemas están profundamente adaptados al régimen natural de caudales, y que cualquier alteración del régimen natural puede provocar graves daños a todo el sistema. El método ELOHA (Ecological Limits of Hydrological Alteration) tiene como finalidad identificar las componentes del régimen natural de caudales que son clave para mantener el equilibrio de los ecosistemas asociados, y estimar los límites máximos de alteración de estas componentes para garantizar su buen estado. Esta tesis presenta la aplicación del método ELOHA en la cuenca del Ebro. La cuenca del Ebro está profundamente regulada e intervenida por el hombre, y sólo las cabeceras de los principales afluentes del Ebro gozan todavía de un régimen total o cuasi natural. La tesis se estructura en seis capítulos que desarrollan las diferentes partes del método. El primer capítulo explica cómo se originó el concepto “caudales ambientales” y en qué consiste el método ELOHA. El segundo capítulo describe el área de estudio. El tercer capítulo realiza una clasificación de los regímenes naturales de la cuenca (RNC) del Ebro, basada en series de datos de caudal mínimamente alterado y usando exclusivamente parámetros hidrológicos. Se identificaron seis tipos diferentes de régimen natural: pluvial mediterráneo, nivo-pluvial, pluvial mediterréaneo con una fuerte componente del caudal base, pluvial oceánico, pluvio-nival oceánico y Mediterráneo. En el cuarto capítulo se realiza una regionalización a toda la cuenca del Ebro de los seis RNC encontrados en la cueca. Mediante parámetros climáticos y fisiográficos se extrapola la información del tipo de RNC a puntos donde no existen datos de caudal inalterado. El patrón geográfico de los tipos de régimen fluvial obtenido con la regionalización resultó ser coincidente con el patrón obtenido a través de la clasificación hidrológica. El quinto capítulo presenta la validación biológica de los procesos de clasificación anteriores: clasificación hidrológica y regionalización. La validación biológica de los tipos de regímenes fluviales es imprescindible, puesto que los diferentes tipos de régimen fluvial van a servir de unidades de gestión para favorecer el mantenimiento de los ecosistemas fluviales. Se encontraron diferencias significativas entre comunidades biológicas en cinco de los seis tipos de RNC encontrados en la cuenca. Finalmente, en el sexto capítulo se estudian las relaciones hidro-ecológicas existentes en tres de los seis tipos de régimen fluvial encontrados en la cuenca del Ebro. Mediante la construcción de curvas hidro-ecológicas a lo largo de un gradiente de alteración hidrológica, se pueden sugerir los límites de alteración hidrológica (ELOHAs) para garantizar el buen estado ecológico en cada uno de los tipos fluviales estudiados. Se establecieron ELOHAs en tres de los seis tipos de RNC de la cuenca del Ebro Esta tesis, además, pone en evidencia la falta de datos biológicos asociados a registros de caudal. Para llevar a cabo la implantación de un régimen de caudales ambientales en la cuenca, la ubicación de los puntos de muestreo biológico cercanos a estaciones de aforo es imprescindible para poder extraer relaciones causa-efecto de la gestión hidrológica sobre los ecosistemas dependientes. ABSTRACT In view of a growing freshwater demand because of population raising, improvement of economies and the potential effects of climate change, water resources management has become a challenge for present and future societies. Water policies in Spain have been focused from the 60’s on constructing hydraulic infrastructures, in order to dampen flow variability and granting water availability along the year. Consequently, natural flow regimes have been deeply altered and so the depending habitats and its ecosystems. However, an increasing acknowledgment of societies for preserving healthy freshwater ecosystems started in the 90’s and agreed that to maintain healthy freshwater ecosystems, it was necessary to set environmental flow regimes based on the natural flow variability. The Natural Flow Regime paradigm (Richter et al. 1996, Poff et al. 1997) bases on the hypothesis that freshwater ecosystems are made up by elements adapted to natural flow conditions, and any change on these conditions can provoke deep impacts on the whole system. Environmental flow regime concept consists in designing a flow regime that emulates natural flow characteristics, so that ecosystem structure, functions and services are maintained. ELOHA framework (Ecological Limits of Hydrological Alteration) aims to identify key features of the natural flow regime (NFR) that are needed to maintain and preserve healthy freshwater and riparian ecosystems. Moreover, ELOHA framework aims to quantify thresholds of alteration of these flow features according to ecological impacts. This thesis describes the application of the ELOHA framework in the Ebro River Basin. The Ebro River basin is the second largest basin in Spain and it is highly regulated for human demands. Only the Ebro headwaters tributaries still have completely unimpaired flow regime. The thesis has six chapters and the process is described step by step. The first chapter makes an introduction to the origin of the environmental flow concept and the necessity to come up. The second chapter shows a description of the study area. The third chapter develops a classification of NFRs in the basin based on natural flow data and using exclusively hydrological parameters. Six NFRs were found in the basin: continental Mediterranean-pluvial, nivo-pluvial, continental Mediterranean pluvial (with groundwater-dominated flow pattern), pluvio-oceanic, pluvio-nival-oceanic and Mediterranean. The fourth chapter develops a regionalization of the six NFR types across the basin by using climatic and physiographic variables. The geographical pattern obtained from the regionalization process was consistent with the pattern obtained with the hydrologic classification. The fifth chapter performs a biological validation of both classifications, obtained from the hydrologic classification and the posterior extrapolation. When the aim of flow classification is managing water resources according to ecosystem requirements, a validation based on biological data is compulsory. We found significant differences in reference macroinvertebrate communities between five over the six NFR types identified in the Ebro River basin. Finally, in the sixth chapter we explored the existence of significant and explicative flow alteration-ecological response relationships (FA-E curves) within NFR types in the Ebro River basin. The aim of these curves is to find out thresholds of hydrological alteration (ELOHAs), in order to preserve healthy freshwater ecosystem. We set ELOHA values in three NFR types identified in the Ebro River basin. During the development of this thesis, an inadequate biological monitoring in the Ebro River basin was identified. The design and establishment of appropriate monitoring arrangements is a critical final step in the assessment and implementation of environmental flows. Cause-effect relationships between hydrology and macroinvertebrate community condition are the principal data that sustain FA-E curves. Therefore, both data sites must be closely located, so that the effects of external factors are minimized. The scarce hydro-biological pairs of data available in the basin prevented us to apply the ELOHA method at all NFR types.

Modelización de servicios ecosistémicos en una cuenca hidrológica del área mediterránea = Modeling ecosystem services in a mediterranean area river basin

La modelización es un proceso por el que se obtienen modelos de los procesos del ´mundo real´ mediante la utilización de simplificaciones. Sin embargo, las estimaciones obtenidas con el modelo llevan implícitas incertidumbre que se debe evaluar. Mediante un análisis de sensibilidad se puede mejorar la confianza en los resultados, sin embargo, este paso a veces no se realiza debido básicamente al trabajo que lleva consigo este tipo de análisis. Además, al crear un modelo, hay que mantener un equilibrio entre la obtención de resultados lo más exactos posible mediante un modelo lo más sencillo posible. Por ello, una vez creado un modelo, es imprescindible comprobar si es necesario o no incluir más procesos que en un principio no se habían incluido. Los servicios ecosistémicos son los procesos mediante los cuales los ecosistemas mantienen y satisfacen el bienestar humano. La importancia que los servicios ecosistémicos y sus beneficios asociados tienen, junto con la necesidad de realizar una buena gestión de los mismos, han estimulado la aparición de modelos y herramientas para cuantificarlos. InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradoffs) es una de estas herramientas específicas para calcular servicios eco-sistémicos, desarrollada por Natural Capital Project (Universidad de Stanford, EEUU). Como resultado del creciente interés en calcular los servicios eco-sistémicos, se prevé un incremento en la aplicación del InVEST. La investigación desarrollada en esta Tesis pretende ayudar en esas otras importantes fases necesarias después de la creación de un modelo, abarcando los dos siguientes trabajos. El primero es la aplicación de un análisis de sensibilidad al modelo en una cuenca concreta mediante la metodología más adecuada. El segundo es relativo a los procesos dentro de la corriente fluvial que actualmente no se incluyen en el modelo mediante la creación y aplicación de una metodología que estudiara el papel que juegan estos procesos en el modelo InVEST de retención de nutrientes en el área de estudio. Los resultados de esta Tesis contribuirán a comprender la incertidumbre involucrada en el proceso de modelado. También pondrá de manifiesto la necesidad de comprobar el comportamiento de un modelo antes de utilizarlo y en el momento de interpretar los resultados obtenidos. El trabajo en esta Tesis contribuirá a mejorar la plataforma InVEST, que es una herramienta importante en el ámbito de los servicios de los ecosistemas. Dicho trabajo beneficiará a los futuros usuarios de la herramienta, ya sean investigadores (en investigaciones futuras), o técnicos (en futuros trabajos de toma de decisiones o gestión ecosistemas). ABSTRACT Modeling is the process to idealize real-world situations through simplifications in order to obtain a model. However, model estimations lead to uncertainties that have to be evaluated formally. The role of the sensitivity analysis (SA) is to assign model output uncertainty based on the inputs and can increase confidence in model, however, it is often omitted in modelling, usually as a result of the growing effort it involves. In addition, the balance between accuracy and simplicity is not easy to assess. For this reason, when a model is developed, it is necessary to test it in order to understand its behavior and to include, if necessary, more complexity to get a better response. Ecosystem services are the conditions and processes through which natural ecosystems, and their constituent species, sustain and fulfill human life. The relevance of ecosystem services and the need to better manage them and their associated benefits have stimulated the emergence of models and tools to measure them. InVEST, Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradoffs, is one of these ecosystem services-specific tools developed by the Natural Capital Project (Stanford University, USA). As a result of the growing interest in measuring ecosystem services, the use of InVEST is anticipated to grow exponentially in the coming years. However, apart from model development, making a model involves other crucial stages such as its evaluation and application in order to validate estimations. The work developed in this thesis tries to help in this relevant and imperative phase of the modeling process, and does so in two different ways. The first one is to conduct a sensitivity analysis of the model, which consists in choosing and applying a methodology in an area and analyzing the results obtained. The second is related to the in-stream processes that are not modeled in the current model, and consists in creating and applying a methodology for testing the streams role in the InVEST nutrient retention model in a case study, analyzing the results obtained. The results of this Thesis will contribute to the understanding of the uncertainties involved in the modeling process. It will also illustrate the need to check the behavior of every model developed before putting them in production and illustrate the importance of understanding their behavior in terms of correctly interpreting the results obtained in light of uncertainty. The work in this thesis will contribute to improve the InVEST platform, which is an important tool in the field of ecosystem services. Such work will benefit future users, whether they are researchers (in their future research), or technicians (in their future work in ecosystem conservation or management decisions).

Irrigation efficiency and water-policy implications for river-basin resilience

Rising demand for food, fiber, and biofuels drives expanding irrigation withdrawals from surface water and groundwater. Irrigation efficiency and water savings have become watchwords in response to climate-induced hydrological variability, increasing freshwater demand for other uses including ecosystem water needs, and low economic productivity of irrigation compared to most other uses. We identify three classes of unintended consequences, presented here as paradoxes. Ever-tighter cycling of water has been shown to increase resource use, an example of the efficiency paradox. In the absence of effective policy to constrain irrigated-area expansion using "saved water", efficiency can aggravate scarcity, deteriorate resource quality, and impair river basin resilience through loss of flexibility and redundancy. Water scarcity and salinity effects in the lower reaches of basins (symptomatic of the scale paradox) may partly be offset over the short-term through groundwater pumping or increasing surface water storage capacity. However, declining ecological flows and increasing salinity have important implications for riparian and estuarine ecosystems and for non-irrigation human uses of water including urban supply and energy generation, examples of the sectoral paradox. This paper briefly considers three regional contexts with broadly similar climatic and water-resource conditions – central Chile, southwestern US, and south-central Spain – where irrigation efficiency directly influences basin resilience. The comparison leads to more generic insights on water policy in relation to irrigation efficiency and emerging or overdue needs for environmental protection.

Characterization of underground cellars in the Duero Basin by GNSS, LIDAR and GPR techniques

The underground cellars of the Duero River basin are part of spread and damaged agricultural landscape which is in danger of disappearing. These architectural complexes are allocated next to small towns. Constructions are mostly dug in the ground with a gallery down or "barrel" strait through which you access the cave or cellar. This wider space is used to make and store wine. Observation and detection of the winery both on the outside and underground is essential to make an inventory of the rural heritage. Geodetection is a non-invasive technique, suitable to determinate with precision buried structures in the ground. The undertaken works include LIDAR survey techniques, GNSS and GPR obtained data. The results are used to identify with centimetric precision construction elements forming the winery. Graphic and cartographic obtained documents allow optimum visualization of the studied field and can be used in the reconstruction of the place.