2 resultados para sensemaking of risk
em Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Resumo:
The Space Systems, Policy and Architecture Research Consortium (SSPARC) was formed to make substantial progress on problems of national importance. The goals of SSPARC were to: • Provide technologies and methods that will allow the creation of flexible, upgradable space systems, • Create a “clean sheet” approach to space systems architecture determination and design, including the incorporation of risk, uncertainty, and flexibility issues, and • Consider the impact of national space policy on the above. This report covers the last two goals, and demonstrates that the effort was largely successful.
Resumo:
Traditional inventory models focus on risk-neutral decision makers, i.e., characterizing replenishment strategies that maximize expected total profit, or equivalently, minimize expected total cost over a planning horizon. In this paper, we propose a framework for incorporating risk aversion in multi-period inventory models as well as multi-period models that coordinate inventory and pricing strategies. In each case, we characterize the optimal policy for various measures of risk that have been commonly used in the finance literature. In particular, we show that the structure of the optimal policy for a decision maker with exponential utility functions is almost identical to the structure of the optimal risk-neutral inventory (and pricing) policies. Computational results demonstrate the importance of this approach not only to risk-averse decision makers, but also to risk-neutral decision makers with limited information on the demand distribution.