Probabilistic Independence Networks for Hidden Markov Probability Models

Graphical techniques for modeling the dependencies of randomvariables have been explored in a variety of different areas includingstatistics, statistical physics, artificial intelligence, speech recognition, image processing, and genetics.Formalisms for manipulating these models have been developedrelatively independently in these research communities. In this paper weexplore hidden Markov models (HMMs) and related structures within the general framework of probabilistic independencenetworks (PINs). The paper contains a self-contained review of the basic principles of PINs.It is shown that the well-known forward-backward (F-B) and Viterbialgorithms for HMMs are special cases of more general inference algorithms forarbitrary PINs. Furthermore, the existence of inference and estimationalgorithms for more general graphical models provides a set of analysistools for HMM practitioners who wish to explore a richer class of HMMstructures.Examples of relatively complex models to handle sensorfusion and coarticulationin speech recognitionare introduced and treated within the graphical model framework toillustrate the advantages of the general approach.

(Semi-)Predictive Discretization During Model Selection

In this paper, we present an approach to discretizing multivariate continuous data while learning the structure of a graphical model. We derive the joint scoring function from the principle of predictive accuracy, which inherently ensures the optimal trade-off between goodness of fit and model complexity (including the number of discretization levels). Using the so-called finest grid implied by the data, our scoring function depends only on the number of data points in the various discretization levels. Not only can it be computed efficiently, but it is also independent of the metric used in the continuous space. Our experiments with gene expression data show that discretization plays a crucial role regarding the resulting network structure.

Stable Mixing of Complete and Incomplete Information

An increasing number of parameter estimation tasks involve the use of at least two information sources, one complete but limited, the other abundant but incomplete. Standard algorithms such as EM (or em) used in this context are unfortunately not stable in the sense that they can lead to a dramatic loss of accuracy with the inclusion of incomplete observations. We provide a more controlled solution to this problem through differential equations that govern the evolution of locally optimal solutions (fixed points) as a function of the source weighting. This approach permits us to explicitly identify any critical (bifurcation) points leading to choices unsupported by the available complete data. The approach readily applies to any graphical model in O(n^3) time where n is the number of parameters. We use the naive Bayes model to illustrate these ideas and demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in the context of text classification problems.

Inferring 3D Structure with a Statistical Image-Based Shape Model

We present an image-based approach to infer 3D structure parameters using a probabilistic "shape+structure'' model. The 3D shape of a class of objects may be represented by sets of contours from silhouette views simultaneously observed from multiple calibrated cameras. Bayesian reconstructions of new shapes can then be estimated using a prior density constructed with a mixture model and probabilistic principal components analysis. We augment the shape model to incorporate structural features of interest; novel examples with missing structure parameters may then be reconstructed to obtain estimates of these parameters. Model matching and parameter inference are done entirely in the image domain and require no explicit 3D construction. Our shape model enables accurate estimation of structure despite segmentation errors or missing views in the input silhouettes, and works even with only a single input view. Using a dataset of thousands of pedestrian images generated from a synthetic model, we can perform accurate inference of the 3D locations of 19 joints on the body based on observed silhouette contours from real images.

Probabilistic Analysis of Multistage Interconnection Network Performance

We present methods of calculating the value of two performance parameters for multipath, multistage interconnection networks: the normalized throughput and the probability of successful message transmission. We develop a set of exact equations for the loading probability mass functions of network channels and a program for solving them exactly. We also develop a Monte Carlo method for approxmiate solution of the equations, and show that the resulting approximation method will always calculate the values of the performance parameters more quickly than direct simulation.

A Statistical Image-Based Shape Model for Visual Hull Reconstruction and 3D Structure Inference

We present a statistical image-based shape + structure model for Bayesian visual hull reconstruction and 3D structure inference. The 3D shape of a class of objects is represented by sets of contours from silhouette views simultaneously observed from multiple calibrated cameras. Bayesian reconstructions of new shapes are then estimated using a prior density constructed with a mixture model and probabilistic principal components analysis. We show how the use of a class-specific prior in a visual hull reconstruction can reduce the effect of segmentation errors from the silhouette extraction process. The proposed method is applied to a data set of pedestrian images, and improvements in the approximate 3D models under various noise conditions are shown. We further augment the shape model to incorporate structural features of interest; unknown structural parameters for a novel set of contours are then inferred via the Bayesian reconstruction process. Model matching and parameter inference are done entirely in the image domain and require no explicit 3D construction. Our shape model enables accurate estimation of structure despite segmentation errors or missing views in the input silhouettes, and works even with only a single input view. Using a data set of thousands of pedestrian images generated from a synthetic model, we can accurately infer the 3D locations of 19 joints on the body based on observed silhouette contours from real images.