Motivated Action Theory: A Formal Theory of Causal Reasoning

When we reason about change over time, causation provides an implicit preference: we prefer sequences of situations in which one situation leads causally to the next, rather than sequences in which one situation follows another at random and without causal connections. In this paper, we explore the problem of temporal reasoning --- reasoning about change over time --- and the crucial role that causation plays in our intuitions. We examine previous approaches to temporal reasoning, and their shortcomings, in light of this analysis. We propose a new system for causal reasoning, motivated action theory, which builds upon causation as a crucial preference creterion. Motivated action theory solves the traditional problems of both forward and backward reasoning, and additionally provides a basis for a new theory of explanation.

The Perceptual Buildup of Three-Dimensional Structure from Motion

We present psychophysical experiments that measure the accuracy of perceived 3D structure derived from relative image motion. The experiments are motivated by Ullman's incremental rigidity scheme, which builds up 3D structure incrementally over an extended time. Our main conclusions are: first, the human system derives an accurate model of the relative depths of moving points, even in the presence of noise; second, the accuracy of 3D structure improves with time, eventually reaching a plateau; and third, the 3D structure currently perceived depends on previous 3D models. Through computer simulations, we relate the psychophysical observations to the behavior of Ullman's model.

The M-Machine Multicomputer

The M-Machine is an experimental multicomputer being developed to test architectural concepts motivated by the constraints of modern semiconductor technology and the demands of programming systems. The M- Machine computing nodes are connected with a 3-D mesh network; each node is a multithreaded processor incorporating 12 function units, on-chip cache, and local memory. The multiple function units are used to exploit both instruction-level and thread-level parallelism. A user accessible message passing system yields fast communication and synchronization between nodes. Rapid access to remote memory is provided transparently to the user with a combination of hardware and software mechanisms. This paper presents the architecture of the M-Machine and describes how its mechanisms maximize both single thread performance and overall system throughput.

Tense, Aspect and the Cognitive Representation of Time

This paper explores the relationships between a computation theory of temporal representation (as developed by James Allen) and a formal linguistic theory of tense (as developed by Norbert Hornstein) and aspect. It aims to provide explicit answers to four fundamental questions: (1) what is the computational justification for the primitive of a linguistic theory; (2) what is the computational explanation of the formal grammatical constraints; (3) what are the processing constraints imposed on the learnability and markedness of these theoretical constructs; and (4) what are the constraints that a linguistic theory imposes on representations. We show that one can effectively exploit the interface between the language faculty and the cognitive faculties by using linguistic constraints to determine restrictions on the cognitive representation and vice versa. Three main results are obtained: (1) We derive an explanation of an observed grammatical constraint on tense?? Linear Order Constraint??m the information monotonicity property of the constraint propagation algorithm of Allen's temporal system: (2) We formulate a principle of markedness for the basic tense structures based on the computational efficiency of the temporal representations; and (3) We show Allen's interval-based temporal system is not arbitrary, but it can be used to explain independently motivated linguistic constraints on tense and aspect interpretations. We also claim that the methodology of research developed in this study??oss-level" investigation of independently motivated formal grammatical theory and computational models??a powerful paradigm with which to attack representational problems in basic cognitive domains, e.g., space, time, causality, etc.

Inspection Methods in Programming

The work reported here lies in the area of overlap between artificial intelligence software engineering. As research in artificial intelligence, it is a step towards a model of problem solving in the domain of programming. In particular, this work focuses on the routine aspects of programming which involve the application of previous experience with similar programs. I call this programming by inspection. Programming is viewed here as a kind of engineering activity. Analysis and synthesis by inspection area prominent part of expert problem solving in many other engineering disciplines, such as electrical and mechanical engineering. The notion of inspections methods in programming developed in this work is motivated by similar notions in other areas of engineering. This work is also motivated by current practical concerns in the area of software engineering. The inadequacy of current programming technology is universally recognized. Part of the solution to this problem will be to increase the level of automation in programming. I believe that the next major step in the evolution of more automated programming will be interactive systems which provide a mixture of partially automated program analysis, synthesis and verification. One such system being developed at MIT, called the programmer's apprentice, is the immediate intended application of this work. This report concentrates on the knowledge are of the programmer's apprentice, which is the form of a taxonomy of commonly used algorithms and data structures. To the extent that a programmer is able to construct and manipulate programs in terms of the forms in such a taxonomy, he may relieve himself of many details and generally raise the conceptual level of his interaction with the system, as compared with present day programming environments. Also, since it is practical to expand a great deal of effort pre-analyzing the entries in a library, the difficulty of verifying the correctness of programs constructed this way is correspondingly reduced. The feasibility of this approach is demonstrated by the design of an initial library of common techniques for manipulating symbolic data. This document also reports on the further development of a formalism called the plan calculus for specifying computations in a programming language independent manner. This formalism combines both data and control abstraction in a uniform framework that has facilities for representing multiple points of view and side effects.

Object Recognition with Pictorial Structures

This thesis presents a statistical framework for object recognition. The framework is motivated by the pictorial structure models introduced by Fischler and Elschlager nearly 30 years ago. The basic idea is to model an object by a collection of parts arranged in a deformable configuration. The appearance of each part is modeled separately, and the deformable configuration is represented by spring-like connections between pairs of parts. These models allow for qualitative descriptions of visual appearance, and are suitable for generic recognition problems. The problem of detecting an object in an image and the problem of learning an object model using training examples are naturally formulated under a statistical approach. We present efficient algorithms to solve these problems in our framework. We demonstrate our techniques by training models to represent faces and human bodies. The models are then used to locate the corresponding objects in novel images.

On the Convergence of Stochastic Iterative Dynamic Programming Algorithms

Recent developments in the area of reinforcement learning have yielded a number of new algorithms for the prediction and control of Markovian environments. These algorithms, including the TD(lambda) algorithm of Sutton (1988) and the Q-learning algorithm of Watkins (1989), can be motivated heuristically as approximations to dynamic programming (DP). In this paper we provide a rigorous proof of convergence of these DP-based learning algorithms by relating them to the powerful techniques of stochastic approximation theory via a new convergence theorem. The theorem establishes a general class of convergent algorithms to which both TD(lambda) and Q-learning belong.

Experimental Markets for Product Concepts

Market prices are well known to efficiently collect and aggregate diverse information regarding the value of commodities and assets. The role of markets has been particularly suitable to pricing financial securities. This article provides an alternative application of the pricing mechanism to marketing research - using pseudo-securities markets to measure preferences over new product concepts. Surveys, focus groups, concept tests and conjoint studies are methods traditionally used to measure individual and aggregate preferences. Unfortunately, these methods can be biased, costly and time-consuming to conduct. The present research is motivated by the desire to efficiently measure preferences and more accurately predict new product success, based on the efficiency and incentive-compatibility of security trading markets. The article describes a novel market research method, pro-vides insight into why the method should work, and compares the results of several trading experiments against other methodologies such as concept testing and conjoint analysis.

Optimal Methodology for Synchronized Scheduling of Parallel Station Assembly with Air Transportation

We present an optimal methodology for synchronized scheduling of production assembly with air transportation to achieve accurate delivery with minimized cost in consumer electronics supply chain (CESC). This problem was motivated by a major PC manufacturer in consumer electronics industry, where it is required to schedule the delivery requirements to meet the customer needs in different parts of South East Asia. The overall problem is decomposed into two sub-problems which consist of an air transportation allocation problem and an assembly scheduling problem. The air transportation allocation problem is formulated as a Linear Programming Problem with earliness tardiness penalties for job orders. For the assembly scheduling problem, it is basically required to sequence the job orders on the assembly stations to minimize their waiting times before they are shipped by flights to their destinations. Hence the second sub-problem is modelled as a scheduling problem with earliness penalties. The earliness penalties are assumed to be independent of the job orders.

Planning and Scheduling Decisions in Supply Chains with Multiple Supply Modes: An Integrated Approach

We address the problem of jointly determining shipment planning and scheduling decisions with the presence of multiple shipment modes. We consider long lead time, less expensive sea shipment mode, and short lead time but expensive air shipment modes. Existing research on multiple shipment modes largely address the short term scheduling decisions only. Motivated by an industrial problem where planning decisions are independent of the scheduling decisions, we investigate the benefits of integrating the two sets of decisions. We develop sequence of mathematical models to address the planning and scheduling decisions. Preliminary computational results indicate improved performance of the integrated approach over some of the existing policies used in real-life situations.