A Nonparametric Approach to Pricing and Hedging Derivative Securities via Learning Networks

We propose a nonparametric method for estimating derivative financial asset pricing formulae using learning networks. To demonstrate feasibility, we first simulate Black-Scholes option prices and show that learning networks can recover the Black-Scholes formula from a two-year training set of daily options prices, and that the resulting network formula can be used successfully to both price and delta-hedge options out-of-sample. For comparison, we estimate models using four popular methods: ordinary least squares, radial basis functions, multilayer perceptrons, and projection pursuit. To illustrate practical relevance, we also apply our approach to S&P 500 futures options data from 1987 to 1991.

Lean Transition of Emerging Industrial Capability

This volume of the final report documents the technical work performed from December 1998 through December 2002 under Cooperative Agreement F33615-97-2-5153 executed between the U.S. Air Force, Air Force Research Laboratory, Materials and Manufacturing Directorate, Manufacturing Technology Division (AFRL/MLM) and the McDonnell Douglas Corporation, a wholly-owned subsidiary of The Boeing Company. The work was accomplished by The Boeing Company, Phantom Works, Huntington Beach, St. Louis, and Seattle; Ford Motor Company; Integral Inc.; Sloan School of Management in the Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Pratt & Whitney; and Central State University in Xenia, Ohio and in association with Raytheon Corporation. The LeanTEC program manager for AFRL is John Crabill of AFRL / MLMP and The Boeing Company program manager is Ed Shroyer of Boeing Phantom Works in Huntington Beach, CA. Financial performance under this contract is documented in the Financial Volume of the final report.

Coordinating Inventory Control and Pricing Strategies with Random Demand and Fixed Ordering Cost: The Finite Horizon Case

We analyze a finite horizon, single product, periodic review model in which pricing and production/inventory decisions are made simultaneously. Demands in different periods are random variables that are independent of each other and their distributions depend on the product price. Pricing and ordering decisions are made at the beginning of each period and all shortages are backlogged. Ordering cost includes both a fixed cost and a variable cost proportional to the amount ordered. The objective is to find an inventory policy and a pricing strategy maximizing expected profit over the finite horizon. We show that when the demand model is additive, the profit-to-go functions are k-concave and hence an (s,S,p) policy is optimal. In such a policy, the period inventory is managed based on the classical (s,S) policy and price is determined based on the inventory position at the beginning of each period. For more general demand functions, i.e., multiplicative plus additive functions, we demonstrate that the profit-to-go function is not necessarily k-concave and an (s,S,p) policy is not necessarily optimal. We introduce a new concept, the symmetric k-concave functions and apply it to provide a characterization of the optimal policy.

Coordinating Inventory Control and Pricing Strategies with Random Demand and Fixed Ordering Cost: the Infinite Horizon Case

We analyze an infinite horizon, single product, periodic review model in which pricing and production/inventory decisions are made simultaneously. Demands in different periods are identically distributed random variables that are independent of each other and their distributions depend on the product price. Pricing and ordering decisions are made at the beginning of each period and all shortages are backlogged. Ordering cost includes both a fixed cost and a variable cost proportional to the amount ordered. The objective is to maximize expected discounted, or expected average profit over the infinite planning horizon. We show that a stationary (s,S,p) policy is optimal for both the discounted and average profit models with general demand functions. In such a policy, the period inventory is managed based on the classical (s,S) policy and price is determined based on the inventory position at the beginning of each period.

Static Pricing for a Network Service Provider

This article studies the static pricing problem of a network service provider who has a fixed capacity and faces different types of customers (classes). Each type of customers can have its own capacity constraint but it is assumed that all classes have the same resource requirement. The provider must decide a static price for each class. The customer types are characterized by their arrival process, with a price-dependant arrival rate, and the random time they remain in the system. Many real-life situations could fit in this framework, for example an Internet provider or a call center, but originally this problem was thought for a company that sells phone-cards and needs to set the price-per-minute for each destination. Our goal is to characterize the optimal static prices in order to maximize the provider's revenue. We note that the model here presented, with some slight modifications and additional assumptions can be used in those cases when the objective is to maximize social welfare.

Lean Transition of Emerging Industrial Capability (LeanTEC)

Lean Transition of Emerging Industrial Capability (LeanTEC) program was a cooperative agreement between the Boeing Company and AFRL conducted from January 1998 to January 2002. The results of this program are documented in the Manual for Effective Technology Transition Processes included as an attachment to this report. This manual provides processes, procedures, and tools for greatly improving technology transition in the aerospace industry. Methodology for the implementation of these improvements is given along with methods for customizing the various processes, procedures, and tools for a given company or business unit. The indicated methodology was tested by the LeanTEC team and results are documented in the report.

Industrial Relations and "Humanware"

This is a preliminary paper. Please do not quote without the permission of the author. The research on which this paper is based has been conducted with the collaboration of John Paul MacDuffie, MIT. The researchers owe much to the warm cooperation of managers, employees, and union officials of Japanese auto companies and joint venture companies in the U.S. as well as American auto companies and the UAW. We would like to express our sincere appreciation for their assistance.