Modeling Stock Order Flows and Learning Market-Making from Data

Stock markets employ specialized traders, market-makers, designed to provide liquidity and volume to the market by constantly supplying both supply and demand. In this paper, we demonstrate a novel method for modeling the market as a dynamic system and a reinforcement learning algorithm that learns profitable market-making strategies when run on this model. The sequence of buys and sells for a particular stock, the order flow, we model as an Input-Output Hidden Markov Model fit to historical data. When combined with the dynamics of the order book, this creates a highly non-linear and difficult dynamic system. Our reinforcement learning algorithm, based on likelihood ratios, is run on this partially-observable environment. We demonstrate learning results for two separate real stocks.

Relative Contributions of Internal and External Features to Face Recognition

The central challenge in face recognition lies in understanding the role different facial features play in our judgments of identity. Notable in this regard are the relative contributions of the internal (eyes, nose and mouth) and external (hair and jaw-line) features. Past studies that have investigated this issue have typically used high-resolution images or good-quality line drawings as facial stimuli. The results obtained are therefore most relevant for understanding the identification of faces at close range. However, given that real-world viewing conditions are rarely optimal, it is also important to know how image degradations, such as loss of resolution caused by large viewing distances, influence our ability to use internal and external features. Here, we report experiments designed to address this issue. Our data characterize how the relative contributions of internal and external features change as a function of image resolution. While we replicated results of previous studies that have shown internal features of familiar faces to be more useful for recognition than external features at high resolution, we found that the two feature sets reverse in importance as resolution decreases. These results suggest that the visual system uses a highly non-linear cue-fusion strategy in combining internal and external features along the dimension of image resolution and that the configural cues that relate the two feature sets play an important role in judgments of facial identity.

Corner Flows in Free Liquid Films

A lubrication-flow model for a free film in a corner is presented. The model, written in the hyperbolic coordinate system ξ = x² – y², η = 2xy, applies to films that are thin in the η direction. The lubrication approximation yields two coupled evolution equations for the film thickness and the velocity field which, to lowest order, describes plug flow in the hyperbolic coordinates. A free film in a corner evolving under surface tension and gravity is investigated. The rate of thinning of a free film is compared to that of a film evolving over a solid substrate. Viscous shear and normal stresses are both captured in the model and are computed for the entire flow domain. It is shown that normal stress dominates over shear stress in the far field, while shear stress dominates close to the corner.