A Radial Basis Function Approach to Financial Time Series Analysis

Nonlinear multivariate statistical techniques on fast computers offer the potential to capture more of the dynamics of the high dimensional, noisy systems underlying financial markets than traditional models, while making fewer restrictive assumptions. This thesis presents a collection of practical techniques to address important estimation and confidence issues for Radial Basis Function networks arising from such a data driven approach, including efficient methods for parameter estimation and pruning, a pointwise prediction error estimator, and a methodology for controlling the "data mining'' problem. Novel applications in the finance area are described, including customized, adaptive option pricing and stock price prediction.

Feature Matching for Object Localization in the Presence of Uncertainty

We consider the problem of matching model and sensory data features in the presence of geometric uncertainty, for the purpose of object localization and identification. The problem is to construct sets of model feature and sensory data feature pairs that are geometrically consistent given that there is uncertainty in the geometry of the sensory data features. If there is no geometric uncertainty, polynomial-time algorithms are possible for feature matching, yet these approaches can fail when there is uncertainty in the geometry of data features. Existing matching and recognition techniques which account for the geometric uncertainty in features either cannot guarantee finding a correct solution, or can construct geometrically consistent sets of feature pairs yet have worst case exponential complexity in terms of the number of features. The major new contribution of this work is to demonstrate a polynomial-time algorithm for constructing sets of geometrically consistent feature pairs given uncertainty in the geometry of the data features. We show that under a certain model of geometric uncertainty the feature matching problem in the presence of uncertainty is of polynomial complexity. This has important theoretical implications by demonstrating an upper bound on the complexity of the matching problem, an by offering insight into the nature of the matching problem itself. These insights prove useful in the solution to the matching problem in higher dimensional cases as well, such as matching three-dimensional models to either two or three-dimensional sensory data. The approach is based on an analysis of the space of feasible transformation parameters. This paper outlines the mathematical basis for the method, and describes the implementation of an algorithm for the procedure. Experiments demonstrating the method are reported.

Learning Object-Independent Modes of Variation with Feature Flow Fields

We present a unifying framework in which "object-independent" modes of variation are learned from continuous-time data such as video sequences. These modes of variation can be used as "generators" to produce a manifold of images of a new object from a single example of that object. We develop the framework in the context of a well-known example: analyzing the modes of spatial deformations of a scene under camera movement. Our method learns a close approximation to the standard affine deformations that are expected from the geometry of the situation, and does so in a completely unsupervised (i.e. ignorant of the geometry of the situation) fashion. We stress that it is learning a "parameterization", not just the parameter values, of the data. We then demonstrate how we have used the same framework to derive a novel data-driven model of joint color change in images due to common lighting variations. The model is superior to previous models of color change in describing non-linear color changes due to lighting.

Stable Mixing of Complete and Incomplete Information

An increasing number of parameter estimation tasks involve the use of at least two information sources, one complete but limited, the other abundant but incomplete. Standard algorithms such as EM (or em) used in this context are unfortunately not stable in the sense that they can lead to a dramatic loss of accuracy with the inclusion of incomplete observations. We provide a more controlled solution to this problem through differential equations that govern the evolution of locally optimal solutions (fixed points) as a function of the source weighting. This approach permits us to explicitly identify any critical (bifurcation) points leading to choices unsupported by the available complete data. The approach readily applies to any graphical model in O(n^3) time where n is the number of parameters. We use the naive Bayes model to illustrate these ideas and demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in the context of text classification problems.