Hypothesizing Device Mechanisms: Opening Up the Black Box

I describe an approach to forming hypotheses about hidden mechanism configurations within devices given external observations and a vocabulary of primitive mechanisms. An implemented causal modelling system called JACK constructs explanations for why a second piece of toast comes out lighter, why the slide in a tire gauge does not slip back inside when the gauge is removed from the tire, and how in a refrigerator a single substance can serve as a heat sink for the interior and a heat source for the exterior. I report the number of hypotheses admitted for each device example, and provide empirical results which isolate the pruning power due to different constraint sources.

Causal and Teleological Reasoning in Circuit Recognition

This thesis presents a theory of human-like reasoning in the general domain of designed physical systems, and in particular, electronic circuits. One aspect of the theory, causal analysis, describes how the behavior of individual components can be combined to explain the behavior of composite systems. Another aspect of the theory, teleological analysis, describes how the notion that the system has a purpose can be used to aid this causal analysis. The theory is implemented as a computer program, which, given a circuit topology, can construct by qualitative causal analysis a mechanism graph describing the functional topology of the system. This functional topology is then parsed by a grammar for common circuit functions. Ambiguities are introduced into the analysis by the approximate qualitative nature of the analysis. For example, there are often several possible mechanisms which might describe the circuit's function. These are disambiguated by teleological analysis. The requirement that each component be assigned an appropriate purpose in the functional topology imposes a severe constraint which eliminates all the ambiguities. Since both analyses are based on heuristics, the chosen mechanism is a rationalization of how the circuit functions, and does not guarantee that the circuit actually does function. This type of coarse understanding of circuits is useful for analysis, design and troubleshooting.

Descriptive Simulation: Combining Symbolic and Numerical Methods in the Analysis of Chemical Reaction Mechanisms

The Kineticist's Workbench is a computer program currently under development whose purpose is to help chemists understand, analyze, and simplify complex chemical reaction mechanisms. This paper discusses one module of the program that numerically simulates mechanisms and constructs qualitative descriptions of the simulation results. These descriptions are given in terms that are meaningful to the working chemist (e.g., steady states, stable oscillations, and so on); and the descriptions (as well as the data structures used to construct them) are accessible as input to other programs.

Motivated Action Theory: A Formal Theory of Causal Reasoning

When we reason about change over time, causation provides an implicit preference: we prefer sequences of situations in which one situation leads causally to the next, rather than sequences in which one situation follows another at random and without causal connections. In this paper, we explore the problem of temporal reasoning --- reasoning about change over time --- and the crucial role that causation plays in our intuitions. We examine previous approaches to temporal reasoning, and their shortcomings, in light of this analysis. We propose a new system for causal reasoning, motivated action theory, which builds upon causation as a crucial preference creterion. Motivated action theory solves the traditional problems of both forward and backward reasoning, and additionally provides a basis for a new theory of explanation.

Learning World Models in Environments with Manifest Causal Structure

This thesis examines the problem of an autonomous agent learning a causal world model of its environment. Previous approaches to learning causal world models have concentrated on environments that are too "easy" (deterministic finite state machines) or too "hard" (containing much hidden state). We describe a new domain --- environments with manifest causal structure --- for learning. In such environments the agent has an abundance of perceptions of its environment. Specifically, it perceives almost all the relevant information it needs to understand the environment. Many environments of interest have manifest causal structure and we show that an agent can learn the manifest aspects of these environments quickly using straightforward learning techniques. We present a new algorithm to learn a rule-based causal world model from observations in the environment. The learning algorithm includes (1) a low level rule-learning algorithm that converges on a good set of specific rules, (2) a concept learning algorithm that learns concepts by finding completely correlated perceptions, and (3) an algorithm that learns general rules. In addition this thesis examines the problem of finding a good expert from a sequence of experts. Each expert has an "error rate"; we wish to find an expert with a low error rate. However, each expert's error rate and the distribution of error rates are unknown. A new expert-finding algorithm is presented and an upper bound on the expected error rate of the expert is derived.

The Role of Chemical Mechanisms in Neural Computation and Learning

Most computational models of neurons assume that their electrical characteristics are of paramount importance. However, all long-term changes in synaptic efficacy, as well as many short-term effects, are mediated by chemical mechanisms. This technical report explores the interaction between electrical and chemical mechanisms in neural learning and development. Two neural systems that exemplify this interaction are described and modelled. The first is the mechanisms underlying habituation, sensitization, and associative learning in the gill withdrawal reflex circuit in Aplysia, a marine snail. The second is the formation of retinotopic projections in the early visual pathway during embryonic development.

Combining Associational and Causal Reasoning to Solve Interpretation and Planning Problems

This report describes a paradigm for combining associational and causal reasoning to achieve efficient and robust problem-solving behavior. The Generate, Test and Debug (GTD) paradigm generates initial hypotheses using associational (heuristic) rules. The tester verifies hypotheses, supplying the debugger with causal explanations for bugs found if the test fails. The debugger uses domain-independent causal reasoning techniques to repair hypotheses, analyzing domain models and the causal explanations produced by the tester to determine how to replace faulty assumptions made by the generator. We analyze the strengths and weaknesses of associational and causal reasoning techniques, and present a theory of debugging plans and interpretations. The GTD paradigm has been implemented and tested in the domains of geologic interpretation, the blocks world, and Tower of Hanoi problems.