Online Learning of Non-stationary Sequences

We consider an online learning scenario in which the learner can make predictions on the basis of a fixed set of experts. The performance of each expert may change over time in a manner unknown to the learner. We formulate a class of universal learning algorithms for this problem by expressing them as simple Bayesian algorithms operating on models analogous to Hidden Markov Models (HMMs). We derive a new performance bound for such algorithms which is considerably simpler than existing bounds. The bound provides the basis for learning the rate at which the identity of the optimal expert switches over time. We find an analytic expression for the a priori resolution at which we need to learn the rate parameter. We extend our scalar switching-rate result to models of the switching-rate that are governed by a matrix of parameters, i.e. arbitrary homogeneous HMMs. We apply and examine our algorithm in the context of the problem of energy management in wireless networks. We analyze the new results in the framework of Information Theory.

Sequential Optimal Recovery: A Paradigm for Active Learning

In most classical frameworks for learning from examples, it is assumed that examples are randomly drawn and presented to the learner. In this paper, we consider the possibility of a more active learner who is allowed to choose his/her own examples. Our investigations are carried out in a function approximation setting. In particular, using arguments from optimal recovery (Micchelli and Rivlin, 1976), we develop an adaptive sampling strategy (equivalent to adaptive approximation) for arbitrary approximation schemes. We provide a general formulation of the problem and show how it can be regarded as sequential optimal recovery. We demonstrate the application of this general formulation to two special cases of functions on the real line 1) monotonically increasing functions and 2) functions with bounded derivative. An extensive investigation of the sample complexity of approximating these functions is conducted yielding both theoretical and empirical results on test functions. Our theoretical results (stated insPAC-style), along with the simulations demonstrate the superiority of our active scheme over both passive learning as well as classical optimal recovery. The analysis of active function approximation is conducted in a worst-case setting, in contrast with other Bayesian paradigms obtained from optimal design (Mackay, 1992).

Learning from Incomplete Data

Real-world learning tasks often involve high-dimensional data sets with complex patterns of missing features. In this paper we review the problem of learning from incomplete data from two statistical perspectives---the likelihood-based and the Bayesian. The goal is two-fold: to place current neural network approaches to missing data within a statistical framework, and to describe a set of algorithms, derived from the likelihood-based framework, that handle clustering, classification, and function approximation from incomplete data in a principled and efficient manner. These algorithms are based on mixture modeling and make two distinct appeals to the Expectation-Maximization (EM) principle (Dempster, Laird, and Rubin 1977)---both for the estimation of mixture components and for coping with the missing data.