Meta-Rules: Reasoning About Control

How can we insure that knowledge embedded in a program is applied effectively? Traditionally the answer to this question has been sought in different problem solving paradigms and in different approaches to encoding and indexing knowledge. Each of these is useful with a certain variety of problem, but they all share a common problem: they become ineffective in the face of a sufficiently large knowledge base. How then can we make it possible for a system to continue to function in the face of a very large number of plausibly useful chunks of knowledge? In response to this question we propose a framework for viewing issues of knowledge indexing and retrieval, a framework that includes what appears to be a useful perspective on the concept of a strategy. We view strategies as a means of controlling invocation in situations where traditional selection mechanisms become ineffective. We examine ways to effect such control, and describe meta-rules, a means of specifying strategies which offers a number of advantages. We consider at some length how and when it is useful to reason about control, and explore the advantages meta-rules offer for doing this.

Belief Propagation and Revision in Networks with Loops

Local belief propagation rules of the sort proposed by Pearl(1988) are guaranteed to converge to the optimal beliefs for singly connected networks. Recently, a number of researchers have empirically demonstrated good performance of these same algorithms on networks with loops, but a theoretical understanding of this performance has yet to be achieved. Here we lay the foundation for an understanding of belief propagation in networks with loops. For networks with a single loop, we derive ananalytical relationship between the steady state beliefs in the loopy network and the true posterior probability. Using this relationship we show a category of networks for which the MAP estimate obtained by belief update and by belief revision can be proven to be optimal (although the beliefs will be incorrect). We show how nodes can use local information in the messages they receive in order to correct the steady state beliefs. Furthermore we prove that for all networks with a single loop, the MAP estimate obtained by belief revisionat convergence is guaranteed to give the globally optimal sequence of states. The result is independent of the length of the cycle and the size of the statespace. For networks with multiple loops, we introduce the concept of a "balanced network" and show simulati.