A Radial Basis Function Approach to Financial Time Series Analysis

Nonlinear multivariate statistical techniques on fast computers offer the potential to capture more of the dynamics of the high dimensional, noisy systems underlying financial markets than traditional models, while making fewer restrictive assumptions. This thesis presents a collection of practical techniques to address important estimation and confidence issues for Radial Basis Function networks arising from such a data driven approach, including efficient methods for parameter estimation and pruning, a pointwise prediction error estimator, and a methodology for controlling the "data mining'' problem. Novel applications in the finance area are described, including customized, adaptive option pricing and stock price prediction.

Time-Frequency Representations for Speech Signals

This work addresses two related questions. The first question is what joint time-frequency energy representations are most appropriate for auditory signals, in particular, for speech signals in sonorant regions. The quadratic transforms of the signal are examined, a large class that includes, for example, the spectrograms and the Wigner distribution. Quasi-stationarity is not assumed, since this would neglect dynamic regions. A set of desired properties is proposed for the representation: (1) shift-invariance, (2) positivity, (3) superposition, (4) locality, and (5) smoothness. Several relations among these properties are proved: shift-invariance and positivity imply the transform is a superposition of spectrograms; positivity and superposition are equivalent conditions when the transform is real; positivity limits the simultaneous time and frequency resolution (locality) possible for the transform, defining an uncertainty relation for joint time-frequency energy representations; and locality and smoothness tradeoff by the 2-D generalization of the classical uncertainty relation. The transform that best meets these criteria is derived, which consists of two-dimensionally smoothed Wigner distributions with (possibly oriented) 2-D guassian kernels. These transforms are then related to time-frequency filtering, a method for estimating the time-varying 'transfer function' of the vocal tract, which is somewhat analogous to ceptstral filtering generalized to the time-varying case. Natural speech examples are provided. The second question addressed is how to obtain a rich, symbolic description of the phonetically relevant features in these time-frequency energy surfaces, the so-called schematic spectrogram. Time-frequency ridges, the 2-D analog of spectral peaks, are one feature that is proposed. If non-oriented kernels are used for the energy representation, then the ridge tops can be identified, with zero-crossings in the inner product of the gradient vector and the direction of greatest downward curvature. If oriented kernels are used, the method can be generalized to give better orientation selectivity (e.g., at intersecting ridges) at the cost of poorer time-frequency locality. Many speech examples are given showing the performance for some traditionally difficult cases: semi-vowels and glides, nasalized vowels, consonant-vowel transitions, female speech, and imperfect transmission channels.