Information Dissemination and Aggregation in Asset Markets with Simple Intelligent Traders

Various studies of asset markets have shown that traders are capable of learning and transmitting information through prices in many situations. In this paper we replace human traders with intelligent software agents in a series of simulated markets. Using these simple learning agents, we are able to replicate several features of the experiments with human subjects, regarding (1) dissemination of information from informed to uninformed traders, and (2) aggregation of information spread over different traders.

Modeling Stock Order Flows and Learning Market-Making from Data

Stock markets employ specialized traders, market-makers, designed to provide liquidity and volume to the market by constantly supplying both supply and demand. In this paper, we demonstrate a novel method for modeling the market as a dynamic system and a reinforcement learning algorithm that learns profitable market-making strategies when run on this model. The sequence of buys and sells for a particular stock, the order flow, we model as an Input-Output Hidden Markov Model fit to historical data. When combined with the dynamics of the order book, this creates a highly non-linear and difficult dynamic system. Our reinforcement learning algorithm, based on likelihood ratios, is run on this partially-observable environment. We demonstrate learning results for two separate real stocks.