Online Learning of Non-stationary Sequences

We consider an online learning scenario in which the learner can make predictions on the basis of a fixed set of experts. The performance of each expert may change over time in a manner unknown to the learner. We formulate a class of universal learning algorithms for this problem by expressing them as simple Bayesian algorithms operating on models analogous to Hidden Markov Models (HMMs). We derive a new performance bound for such algorithms which is considerably simpler than existing bounds. The bound provides the basis for learning the rate at which the identity of the optimal expert switches over time. We find an analytic expression for the a priori resolution at which we need to learn the rate parameter. We extend our scalar switching-rate result to models of the switching-rate that are governed by a matrix of parameters, i.e. arbitrary homogeneous HMMs. We apply and examine our algorithm in the context of the problem of energy management in wireless networks. We analyze the new results in the framework of Information Theory.

Coordinating Inventory Control and Pricing Strategies with Random Demand and Fixed Ordering Cost: the Infinite Horizon Case

We analyze an infinite horizon, single product, periodic review model in which pricing and production/inventory decisions are made simultaneously. Demands in different periods are identically distributed random variables that are independent of each other and their distributions depend on the product price. Pricing and ordering decisions are made at the beginning of each period and all shortages are backlogged. Ordering cost includes both a fixed cost and a variable cost proportional to the amount ordered. The objective is to maximize expected discounted, or expected average profit over the infinite planning horizon. We show that a stationary (s,S,p) policy is optimal for both the discounted and average profit models with general demand functions. In such a policy, the period inventory is managed based on the classical (s,S) policy and price is determined based on the inventory position at the beginning of each period.

Bubble Behavior in a Taylor Vortex

We present an experimental study on the behavior of bubbles captured in a Taylor vortex. The gap between a rotating inner cylinder and a stationary outer cylinder is filled with a Newtonian mineral oil. Beyond a critical rotation speed (ω[subscript c]), Taylor vortices appear in this system. Small air bubbles are introduced into the gap through a needle connected to a syringe pump. These are then captured in the cores of the vortices (core bubble) and in the outflow regions along the inner cylinder (wall bubble). The flow field is measured with a two-dimensional particle imaging velocimetry (PIV) system. The motion of the bubbles is monitored by using a high speed video camera. It has been found that, if the core bubbles are all of the same size, a bubble ring forms at the center of the vortex such that bubbles are azimuthally uniformly distributed. There is a saturation number (N[subscript s]) of bubbles in the ring, such that the addition of one more bubble leads eventually to a coalescence and a subsequent complicated evolution. Ns increases with increasing rotation speed and decreasing bubble size. For bubbles of non-uniform size, small bubbles and large bubbles in nearly the same orbit can be observed to cross due to their different circulating speeds. The wall bubbles, however, do not become uniformly distributed, but instead form short bubble-chains which might eventually evolve into large bubbles. The motion of droplets and particles in a Taylor vortex was also investigated. As with bubbles, droplets and particles align into a ring structure at low rotation speeds, but the saturation number is much smaller. Moreover, at high rotation speeds, droplets and particles exhibit a characteristic periodic oscillation in the axial, radial and tangential directions due to their inertia. In addition, experiments with non-spherical particles show that they behave rather similarly. This study provides a better understanding of particulate behavior in vortex flow structures.