A Radial Basis Function Approach to Financial Time Series Analysis

Nonlinear multivariate statistical techniques on fast computers offer the potential to capture more of the dynamics of the high dimensional, noisy systems underlying financial markets than traditional models, while making fewer restrictive assumptions. This thesis presents a collection of practical techniques to address important estimation and confidence issues for Radial Basis Function networks arising from such a data driven approach, including efficient methods for parameter estimation and pruning, a pointwise prediction error estimator, and a methodology for controlling the "data mining'' problem. Novel applications in the finance area are described, including customized, adaptive option pricing and stock price prediction.

Automatic Qualitative Analysis of Ordinary Differential Equations Using Piecewise Linear Approximations

This paper explores automating the qualitative analysis of physical systems. It describes a program, called PLR, that takes parameterized ordinary differential equations as input and produces a qualitative description of the solutions for all initial values. PLR approximates intractable nonlinear systems with piecewise linear ones, analyzes the approximations, and draws conclusions about the original systems. It chooses approximations that are accurate enough to reproduce the essential properties of their nonlinear prototypes, yet simple enough to be analyzed completely and efficiently. It derives additional properties, such as boundedness or periodicity, by theoretical methods. I demonstrate PLR on several common nonlinear systems and on published examples from mechanical engineering.

Automatic Analysis and Synthesis of Controllers for Dynamical Systems Based On P

I present a novel design methodology for the synthesis of automatic controllers, together with a computational environment---the Control Engineer's Workbench---integrating a suite of programs that automatically analyze and design controllers for high-performance, global control of nonlinear systems. This work demonstrates that difficult control synthesis tasks can be automated, using programs that actively exploit and efficiently represent knowledge of nonlinear dynamics and phase space and effectively use the representation to guide and perform the control design. The Control Engineer's Workbench combines powerful numerical and symbolic computations with artificial intelligence reasoning techniques. As a demonstration, the Workbench automatically designed a high-quality maglev controller that outperforms a previous linear design by a factor of 20.

Exact Solution of the Nonlinear Dynamics of Recurrent Neural Mechanisms for Direction Selectivity

Different theoretical models have tried to investigate the feasibility of recurrent neural mechanisms for achieving direction selectivity in the visual cortex. The mathematical analysis of such models has been restricted so far to the case of purely linear networks. We present an exact analytical solution of the nonlinear dynamics of a class of direction selective recurrent neural models with threshold nonlinearity. Our mathematical analysis shows that such networks have form-stable stimulus-locked traveling pulse solutions that are appropriate for modeling the responses of direction selective cortical neurons. Our analysis shows also that the stability of such solutions can break down giving raise to a different class of solutions ("lurching activity waves") that are characterized by a specific spatio-temporal periodicity. These solutions cannot arise in models for direction selectivity with purely linear spatio-temporal filtering.