Computing Upper and Lower Bounds on Likelihoods in Intractable Networks

We present techniques for computing upper and lower bounds on the likelihoods of partial instantiations of variables in sigmoid and noisy-OR networks. The bounds determine confidence intervals for the desired likelihoods and become useful when the size of the network (or clique size) precludes exact computations. We illustrate the tightness of the obtained bounds by numerical experiments.

Estimating Dependency Structure as a Hidden Variable

This paper introduces a probability model, the mixture of trees that can account for sparse, dynamically changing dependence relationships. We present a family of efficient algorithms that use EM and the Minimum Spanning Tree algorithm to find the ML and MAP mixture of trees for a variety of priors, including the Dirichlet and the MDL priors. We also show that the single tree classifier acts like an implicit feature selector, thus making the classification performance insensitive to irrelevant attributes. Experimental results demonstrate the excellent performance of the new model both in density estimation and in classification.