5 resultados para Modeling Rapport Using Hidden Markov Models
em Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Resumo:
We present a framework for learning in hidden Markov models with distributed state representations. Within this framework, we derive a learning algorithm based on the Expectation--Maximization (EM) procedure for maximum likelihood estimation. Analogous to the standard Baum-Welch update rules, the M-step of our algorithm is exact and can be solved analytically. However, due to the combinatorial nature of the hidden state representation, the exact E-step is intractable. A simple and tractable mean field approximation is derived. Empirical results on a set of problems suggest that both the mean field approximation and Gibbs sampling are viable alternatives to the computationally expensive exact algorithm.
Resumo:
Graphical techniques for modeling the dependencies of randomvariables have been explored in a variety of different areas includingstatistics, statistical physics, artificial intelligence, speech recognition, image processing, and genetics.Formalisms for manipulating these models have been developedrelatively independently in these research communities. In this paper weexplore hidden Markov models (HMMs) and related structures within the general framework of probabilistic independencenetworks (PINs). The paper contains a self-contained review of the basic principles of PINs.It is shown that the well-known forward-backward (F-B) and Viterbialgorithms for HMMs are special cases of more general inference algorithms forarbitrary PINs. Furthermore, the existence of inference and estimationalgorithms for more general graphical models provides a set of analysistools for HMM practitioners who wish to explore a richer class of HMMstructures.Examples of relatively complex models to handle sensorfusion and coarticulationin speech recognitionare introduced and treated within the graphical model framework toillustrate the advantages of the general approach.
Resumo:
We consider an online learning scenario in which the learner can make predictions on the basis of a fixed set of experts. The performance of each expert may change over time in a manner unknown to the learner. We formulate a class of universal learning algorithms for this problem by expressing them as simple Bayesian algorithms operating on models analogous to Hidden Markov Models (HMMs). We derive a new performance bound for such algorithms which is considerably simpler than existing bounds. The bound provides the basis for learning the rate at which the identity of the optimal expert switches over time. We find an analytic expression for the a priori resolution at which we need to learn the rate parameter. We extend our scalar switching-rate result to models of the switching-rate that are governed by a matrix of parameters, i.e. arbitrary homogeneous HMMs. We apply and examine our algorithm in the context of the problem of energy management in wireless networks. We analyze the new results in the framework of Information Theory.
Resumo:
Stock markets employ specialized traders, market-makers, designed to provide liquidity and volume to the market by constantly supplying both supply and demand. In this paper, we demonstrate a novel method for modeling the market as a dynamic system and a reinforcement learning algorithm that learns profitable market-making strategies when run on this model. The sequence of buys and sells for a particular stock, the order flow, we model as an Input-Output Hidden Markov Model fit to historical data. When combined with the dynamics of the order book, this creates a highly non-linear and difficult dynamic system. Our reinforcement learning algorithm, based on likelihood ratios, is run on this partially-observable environment. We demonstrate learning results for two separate real stocks.
Resumo:
A persistent issue of debate in the area of 3D object recognition concerns the nature of the experientially acquired object models in the primate visual system. One prominent proposal in this regard has expounded the use of object centered models, such as representations of the objects' 3D structures in a coordinate frame independent of the viewing parameters [Marr and Nishihara, 1978]. In contrast to this is another proposal which suggests that the viewing parameters encountered during the learning phase might be inextricably linked to subsequent performance on a recognition task [Tarr and Pinker, 1989; Poggio and Edelman, 1990]. The 'object model', according to this idea, is simply a collection of the sample views encountered during training. Given that object centered recognition strategies have the attractive feature of leading to viewpoint independence, they have garnered much of the research effort in the field of computational vision. Furthermore, since human recognition performance seems remarkably robust in the face of imaging variations [Ellis et al., 1989], it has often been implicitly assumed that the visual system employs an object centered strategy. In the present study we examine this assumption more closely. Our experimental results with a class of novel 3D structures strongly suggest the use of a view-based strategy by the human visual system even when it has the opportunity of constructing and using object-centered models. In fact, for our chosen class of objects, the results seem to support a stronger claim: 3D object recognition is 2D view-based.