Reinforcement Learning by Policy Search

One objective of artificial intelligence is to model the behavior of an intelligent agent interacting with its environment. The environment's transformations can be modeled as a Markov chain, whose state is partially observable to the agent and affected by its actions; such processes are known as partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs). While the environment's dynamics are assumed to obey certain rules, the agent does not know them and must learn. In this dissertation we focus on the agent's adaptation as captured by the reinforcement learning framework. This means learning a policy---a mapping of observations into actions---based on feedback from the environment. The learning can be viewed as browsing a set of policies while evaluating them by trial through interaction with the environment. The set of policies is constrained by the architecture of the agent's controller. POMDPs require a controller to have a memory. We investigate controllers with memory, including controllers with external memory, finite state controllers and distributed controllers for multi-agent systems. For these various controllers we work out the details of the algorithms which learn by ascending the gradient of expected cumulative reinforcement. Building on statistical learning theory and experiment design theory, a policy evaluation algorithm is developed for the case of experience re-use. We address the question of sufficient experience for uniform convergence of policy evaluation and obtain sample complexity bounds for various estimators. Finally, we demonstrate the performance of the proposed algorithms on several domains, the most complex of which is simulated adaptive packet routing in a telecommunication network.

Online Learning of Non-stationary Sequences

We consider an online learning scenario in which the learner can make predictions on the basis of a fixed set of experts. The performance of each expert may change over time in a manner unknown to the learner. We formulate a class of universal learning algorithms for this problem by expressing them as simple Bayesian algorithms operating on models analogous to Hidden Markov Models (HMMs). We derive a new performance bound for such algorithms which is considerably simpler than existing bounds. The bound provides the basis for learning the rate at which the identity of the optimal expert switches over time. We find an analytic expression for the a priori resolution at which we need to learn the rate parameter. We extend our scalar switching-rate result to models of the switching-rate that are governed by a matrix of parameters, i.e. arbitrary homogeneous HMMs. We apply and examine our algorithm in the context of the problem of energy management in wireless networks. We analyze the new results in the framework of Information Theory.

Learning Commonsense Categorical Knowledge in a Thread Memory System

If we are to understand how we can build machines capable of broad purpose learning and reasoning, we must first aim to build systems that can represent, acquire, and reason about the kinds of commonsense knowledge that we humans have about the world. This endeavor suggests steps such as identifying the kinds of knowledge people commonly have about the world, constructing suitable knowledge representations, and exploring the mechanisms that people use to make judgments about the everyday world. In this work, I contribute to these goals by proposing an architecture for a system that can learn commonsense knowledge about the properties and behavior of objects in the world. The architecture described here augments previous machine learning systems in four ways: (1) it relies on a seven dimensional notion of context, built from information recently given to the system, to learn and reason about objects' properties; (2) it has multiple methods that it can use to reason about objects, so that when one method fails, it can fall back on others; (3) it illustrates the usefulness of reasoning about objects by thinking about their similarity to other, better known objects, and by inferring properties of objects from the categories that they belong to; and (4) it represents an attempt to build an autonomous learner and reasoner, that sets its own goals for learning about the world and deduces new facts by reflecting on its acquired knowledge. This thesis describes this architecture, as well as a first implementation, that can learn from sentences such as ``A blue bird flew to the tree'' and ``The small bird flew to the cage'' that birds can fly. One of the main contributions of this work lies in suggesting a further set of salient ideas about how we can build broader purpose commonsense artificial learners and reasoners.

Learning Linear, Sparse, Factorial Codes

In previous work (Olshausen & Field 1996), an algorithm was described for learning linear sparse codes which, when trained on natural images, produces a set of basis functions that are spatially localized, oriented, and bandpass (i.e., wavelet-like). This note shows how the algorithm may be interpreted within a maximum-likelihood framework. Several useful insights emerge from this connection: it makes explicit the relation to statistical independence (i.e., factorial coding), it shows a formal relationship to the algorithm of Bell and Sejnowski (1995), and it suggests how to adapt parameters that were previously fixed.

Learning from Incomplete Data

Real-world learning tasks often involve high-dimensional data sets with complex patterns of missing features. In this paper we review the problem of learning from incomplete data from two statistical perspectives---the likelihood-based and the Bayesian. The goal is two-fold: to place current neural network approaches to missing data within a statistical framework, and to describe a set of algorithms, derived from the likelihood-based framework, that handle clustering, classification, and function approximation from incomplete data in a principled and efficient manner. These algorithms are based on mixture modeling and make two distinct appeals to the Expectation-Maximization (EM) principle (Dempster, Laird, and Rubin 1977)---both for the estimation of mixture components and for coping with the missing data.

A Nonparametric Approach to Pricing and Hedging Derivative Securities via Learning Networks

We propose a nonparametric method for estimating derivative financial asset pricing formulae using learning networks. To demonstrate feasibility, we first simulate Black-Scholes option prices and show that learning networks can recover the Black-Scholes formula from a two-year training set of daily options prices, and that the resulting network formula can be used successfully to both price and delta-hedge options out-of-sample. For comparison, we estimate models using four popular methods: ordinary least squares, radial basis functions, multilayer perceptrons, and projection pursuit. To illustrate practical relevance, we also apply our approach to S&P 500 futures options data from 1987 to 1991.