Preliminary Observations on Program Instability

This white paper reports emerging findings at the end of Phase I of the Lean Aircraft Initiative in the Policy focus group area. Specifically, it provides details about research on program instability. Its objective is to discuss high-level findings detailing: 1) the relative contribution of different factors to a program’s overall instability; 2) the cost impact of program instability on acquisition programs; and 3) some strategies recommended by program managers for overcoming and/or mitigating the negative effects of program instability on their programs. Because this report comes as this research is underway, this is not meant to be a definitive document on the subject. Rather, is it anticipated that this research may potentially produce a number of reports on program instability-related topics. The government managers of military acquisition programs rated annual budget or production rate changes, changes in requirements, and technical difficulties as the three top contributors, respectively, to program instability. When asked to partition actual variance in their program’s planned cost and schedule to each of these factors, it was found that the combined effects of unplanned budget and requirement changes accounted for 5.2% annual cost growth and 20% total program schedule slip. At a rate of approximately 5% annual cost growth from these factors, it is easy to see that even conservative estimates of the cost benefits to be gained from acquisition reforms and process improvements can quickly be eclipsed by the added cost associated with program instability. Program management practices involving the integration of stakeholders from throughout the value chain into the decision making process were rated the most effective at avoiding program instability. The use of advanced information technologies was rated the most effective at mitigating the negative impact of program instability.

Preliminary Observations on Program Instability

This white paper reports emerging findings at the end of Phase I of the Lean Aircraft Initiative in the Policy focus group area. Specifically, it provides details about research on program instability. Its objective is to discuss high-level findings detailing: 1) the relative contribution of different factors to a program’s overall instability; 2) the cost impact of program instability on acquisition programs; and 3) some strategies recommended by program managers for overcoming and/or mitigating the negative effects of program instability on their programs. Because this report comes as this research is underway, this is not meant to be a definitive document on the subject. Rather, is it anticipated that this research may potentially produce a number of reports on program instability-related topics. The government managers of military acquisition programs rated annual budget or production rate changes, changes in requirements, and technical difficulties as the three top contributors, respectively, to program instability. When asked to partition actual variance in their program’s planned cost and schedule to each of these factors, it was found that the combined effects of unplanned budget and requirement changes accounted for 5.2% annual cost growth and 20% total program schedule slip. At a rate of approximately 5% annual cost growth from these factors, it is easy to see that even conservative estimates of the cost benefits to be gained from acquisition reforms and process improvements can quickly be eclipsed by the added cost associated with program instability. Program management practices involving the integration of stakeholders from throughout the value chain into the decision making process were rated the most effective at avoiding program instability. The use of advanced information technologies was rated the most effective at mitigating the negative impact of program instability.

Peeling, healing and bursting in a lubricated elastic sheet

We consider the dynamics of an elastic sheet lubricated by the flow of a thin layer of fluid that separates it from a rigid wall. By considering long wavelength deformations of the sheet, we derive an evolution equation for its motion, accounting for the effects of elastic bending, viscous lubrication and body forces. We then analyze various steady and unsteady problems for the sheet such as peeling, healing, levitating and bursting using a combination of numerical simulation and dimensional analysis. On the macro-scale, we corroborate our theory with a simple experiment, and on the micro-scale, we analyze an oscillatory valve that can transform a continuous stream of fluid into a series of discrete pulses.

The Inertio-Elastic Planar Entry Flow of Low-Viscosity Elastic Fluids in Micro-fabricated Geometries

The non-Newtonian flow of dilute aqueous polyethylene oxide (PEO) solutions through microfabricated planar abrupt contraction-expansions is investigated. The contraction geometries are fabricated from a high-resolution chrome mask and cross-linked PDMS gels using the tools of soft-lithography. The small length scales and high deformation rates in the contraction throat lead to significant extensional flow effects even with dilute polymer solutions having time constants on the order of milliseconds. The dimensionless extra pressure drop across the contraction increases by more than 200% and is accompanied by significant upstream vortex growth. Streak photography and videomicroscopy using epifluorescent particles shows that the flow ultimately becomes unstable and three-dimensional. The moderate Reynolds numbers (0.03 ≤ Re ≤ 44) associated with these high Deborah number (0 ≤ De ≤ 600) microfluidic flows results in the exploration of new regions of the Re-De parameter space in which the effects of both elasticity and inertia can be observed. Understanding such interactions will be increasingly important in microfluidic applications involving complex fluids and can best be interpreted in terms of the elasticity number, El = De/Re, which is independent of the flow kinematics and depends only on the fluid rheology and the characteristic size of the device.