Causes and Effects of Chaos

Most of the recent literature on chaos and nonlinear dynamics is written either for popular science magazine readers or for advanced mathematicians. This paper gives a broad introduction to this interesting and rapidly growing field at a level that is between the two. The graphical and analytical tools used in the literature are explained and demonstrated, the rudiments of the current theory are outlined and that theory is discussed in the context of several examples: an electronic circuit, a chemical reaction and a system of satellites in the solar system.

Forecasting Global Temperature Variations by Neural Networks

Global temperature variations between 1861 and 1984 are forecast usingsregularization networks, multilayer perceptrons and linearsautoregression. The regularization network, optimized by stochasticsgradient descent associated with colored noise, gives the bestsforecasts. For all the models, prediction errors noticeably increasesafter 1965. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that thesclimate dynamics is characterized by low-dimensional chaos and thatsthe it may have changed at some point after 1965, which is alsosconsistent with the recent idea of climate change.s