4 resultados para Bayesian aggregation

em Massachusetts Institute of Technology


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A common objective in learning a model from data is to recover its network structure, while the model parameters are of minor interest. For example, we may wish to recover regulatory networks from high-throughput data sources. In this paper we examine how Bayesian regularization using a Dirichlet prior over the model parameters affects the learned model structure in a domain with discrete variables. Surprisingly, a weak prior in the sense of smaller equivalent sample size leads to a strong regularization of the model structure (sparse graph) given a sufficiently large data set. In particular, the empty graph is obtained in the limit of a vanishing strength of prior belief. This is diametrically opposite to what one may expect in this limit, namely the complete graph from an (unregularized) maximum likelihood estimate. Since the prior affects the parameters as expected, the prior strength balances a "trade-off" between regularizing the parameters or the structure of the model. We demonstrate the benefits of optimizing this trade-off in the sense of predictive accuracy.

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Various studies of asset markets have shown that traders are capable of learning and transmitting information through prices in many situations. In this paper we replace human traders with intelligent software agents in a series of simulated markets. Using these simple learning agents, we are able to replicate several features of the experiments with human subjects, regarding (1) dissemination of information from informed to uninformed traders, and (2) aggregation of information spread over different traders.

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In order to estimate the motion of an object, the visual system needs to combine multiple local measurements, each of which carries some degree of ambiguity. We present a model of motion perception whereby measurements from different image regions are combined according to a Bayesian estimator --- the estimated motion maximizes the posterior probability assuming a prior favoring slow and smooth velocities. In reviewing a large number of previously published phenomena we find that the Bayesian estimator predicts a wide range of psychophysical results. This suggests that the seemingly complex set of illusions arise from a single computational strategy that is optimal under reasonable assumptions.

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Poly(acrylic acid) (PAA) was grafted onto both termini of Pluronic F87 (PEO₆₇-PPO₃₉-PEO₆₇) via atom transfer radical polymerization to produce a novel muco-adhesive block copolymer PAA₈₀-b-F₈₇-b-PAA₈₀. It was observed that PAA₈₀-F₈₇-PAA₈₀ forms stable complexes with weakly basic anti-cancer drug, Doxorubicin. Thermodynamic changes due to the drug binding to the copolymer were assessed at different pH by isothermal titration calorimetry (ITC). The formation of the polymer/drug complexes was studied by turbidimetric titration and dynamic light scattering. Doxorubicin and PAA-b-F87-b-PAA block copolymer are found to interact strongly in aqueous solution via non-covalent interactions over a wide pH range. At pH>4.35, drug binding is due to electrostatic interactions. Hydrogen-bond also plays a role in the stabilization of the PAA₈₀-F₈₇-PAA₈₀/DOX complex. At pH 7.4 (α=0.8), the size and stability of polymer/drug complex depend strongly on the doxorubicin concentration. When CDOX <0.13mM, the PAA₈₀-F₈₇-PAA₈₀ copolymer forms stable inter-chain complexes with DOX (110 ~ 150 nm). When CDOX >0.13mM, as suggested by the light scattering result, the reorganization of the polymer/drug complex is believed to occur. With further addition of DOX (CDOX >0.34mM), sharp increase in the turbidity indicates the formation of large aggregates, followed by phase separation. The onset of a sharp enthalpy increase corresponds to the formation of a stoichiometric complex.