Stochastic simulation of time-series models combined with geostatistics to predict water-table scenarios in a Guarani Aquifer System outcrop area, Brazil

Stochastic methods based on time-series modeling combined with geostatistics can be useful tools to describe the variability of water-table levels in time and space and to account for uncertainty. Monitoring water-level networks can give information about the dynamic of the aquifer domain in both dimensions. Time-series modeling is an elegant way to treat monitoring data without the complexity of physical mechanistic models. Time-series model predictions can be interpolated spatially, with the spatial differences in water-table dynamics determined by the spatial variation in the system properties and the temporal variation driven by the dynamics of the inputs into the system. An integration of stochastic methods is presented, based on time-series modeling and geostatistics as a framework to predict water levels for decision making in groundwater management and land-use planning. The methodology is applied in a case study in a Guarani Aquifer System (GAS) outcrop area located in the southeastern part of Brazil. Communication of results in a clear and understandable form, via simulated scenarios, is discussed as an alternative, when translating scientific knowledge into applications of stochastic hydrogeology in large aquifers with limited monitoring network coverage like the GAS.

Cyanobacteria and Cyanotoxin in the Billings Reservoir (São Paulo, SP, Brazil)

The Billings Complex and the Guarapiranga System are important strategic reservoirs for the city of São Paulo and surrounding areas because the water is used among other things, for the public water supply. They produce 19,000 liters of water per second and Supply water to 5.4 million people. Crude water is transferred from the Taquacetuba branch of the Billings Complex to the Guarapiranga Reservoir to regulate the water level of the reservoir. The objective of this study was to evaluate the water quality in the Taquacetuba branch, focusing on cyanobacteria and cyanotoxins. Surface water samples were collected in February (summer) and July (winter) of 2007. Analyses were conducted of physical, chemical, and biological variables of he water, cyanobacteria richness and density, and the presence of cyanotoxins. The water was classified as eutrophic-hypereutrophic. Cyanobacteria blooms were observed in both collection periods. The cyanobacteria bloom was most significant in July, reflecting lower water transparency and higher levels of total solids, suspended organic matter, chlorophyll-a, and cyanobacteria density in the surface water. Low richness and elevated dominance of the cyanobacteria were found in both periods. Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii was dominant in February, with 352 661.0 cel mL(-1), and Microcystis panniformis was dominant in July, with 1 866 725.0 cel mL(-1). Three variants of microcystin were found in February (MC-RR, MC-LR, MC-YR), as well as saxitoxin. The same variants of microcystin were found in July, but no saxitoxin was detected. Anatoxin-a and cylindropermopsin were not detected in either period. These findings are of great concern because the water in the Taquacetuba branch, which is transferred into the Guarapiranga Reservoir, is not treated nor managed. It is recommended that monitoring be intensified and more effective measures be taken by the responsible agencies to prevent the process of eutrophication and the consequent development of the cyanobacteria and their toxins.