Stochastic simulation of time-series models combined with geostatistics to predict water-table scenarios in a Guarani Aquifer System outcrop area, Brazil

Stochastic methods based on time-series modeling combined with geostatistics can be useful tools to describe the variability of water-table levels in time and space and to account for uncertainty. Monitoring water-level networks can give information about the dynamic of the aquifer domain in both dimensions. Time-series modeling is an elegant way to treat monitoring data without the complexity of physical mechanistic models. Time-series model predictions can be interpolated spatially, with the spatial differences in water-table dynamics determined by the spatial variation in the system properties and the temporal variation driven by the dynamics of the inputs into the system. An integration of stochastic methods is presented, based on time-series modeling and geostatistics as a framework to predict water levels for decision making in groundwater management and land-use planning. The methodology is applied in a case study in a Guarani Aquifer System (GAS) outcrop area located in the southeastern part of Brazil. Communication of results in a clear and understandable form, via simulated scenarios, is discussed as an alternative, when translating scientific knowledge into applications of stochastic hydrogeology in large aquifers with limited monitoring network coverage like the GAS.

Integrated sediment quality assessment in Paranagua Estuarine System, Southern Brazil

Sediment quality from Paranagua Estuarine System (PES), a highly important port and ecological zone, was evaluated by assessing three lines of evidence: (1) sediment physical-chemical characteristics; (2) sediment toxicity (elutriates, sediment-water interface, and whole sediment); and (3) benthic community structure. Results revealed a gradient of increasing degradation of sediments (i.e. higher concentrations of trace metals, higher toxicity, and impoverishment of benthic community structure) towards inner PES. Data integration by principal component analysis (PCA) showed positive correlation between some contaminants (mainly As, Cr, Ni, and Pb) and toxicity in samples collected from stations located in upper estuary and one station placed away from contamination sources. Benthic community structure seems to be affected by both pollution and natural fine characteristics of the sediments, which reinforces the importance of a weight-of-evidence approach to evaluate sediments of PES. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.