Transfer function-noise modeling and spatial interpolation to evaluate the risk of extreme (shallow) water-table levels in the Brazilian Cerrados

Water regimes in the Brazilian Cerrados are sensitive to climatological disturbances and human intervention. The risk that critical water-table levels are exceeded over long periods of time can be estimated by applying stochastic methods in modeling the dynamic relationship between water levels and driving forces such as precipitation and evapotranspiration. In this study, a transfer function-noise model, the so called PIRFICT-model, is applied to estimate the dynamic relationship between water-table depth and precipitation surplus/deficit in a watershed with a groundwater monitoring scheme in the Brazilian Cerrados. Critical limits were defined for a period in the Cerrados agricultural calendar, the end of the rainy season, when extremely shallow levels (< 0.5-m depth) can pose a risk to plant health and machinery before harvesting. By simulating time-series models, the risk of exceeding critical thresholds during a continuous period of time (e.g. 10 days) is described by probability levels. These simulated probabilities were interpolated spatially using universal kriging, incorporating information related to the drainage basin from a digital elevation model. The resulting map reduced model uncertainty. Three areas were defined as presenting potential risk at the end of the rainy season. These areas deserve attention with respect to water-management and land-use planning.

Brachyuran soft-bottom assemblage from marine shallow waters in the southeastern Brazilian littoral.

The present investigation examined the assemblages of brachyuran crabs in three bays of southeastern So Paulo State, analyzing the numbers of species and individuals, biomass, and diversity. The crabs were collected monthly in Ubatumirim, Ubatuba, and Mar Virado bays in the Ubatuba region over 2 years (1998 and 1999). In each bay, six tows were made from a fishing boat. A total of 39,820 specimens, representing 11 super families, 39 genera, and 65 species of brachyurans, were obtained. The mean number of specimens and biomass varied seasonally, which can be mainly related with the population tendencies of two dominant species in the area (Callinectes ornatus and Hepatus pudibundus). The highest numbers of individuals and species were found in Ubatuba Bay, followed by Ubatumirim and Mar Virado. The highest diversity index was estimated for Ubatumirim (H' = 2.44), followed by Ubatuba (H' = 2.37) and Mar Virado (H' = 1.86). In general, the coastal region supported high abundance and species richness concerning brachyurans, with high diversity indices, probably because of its more-heterogeneous substrate, which may afford more refuges for certain species. These results suggested that environmental conditions in this area, although they showed certain differences, are favorable for the establishment and development of a diverse brachyuran guild.