2 resultados para Scenario analysis

em Universidade Estadual Paulista "Júlio de Mesquita Filho" (UNESP)


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Animal welfare issues have received much attention not only to supply farmed animal requirements, but also to ethical and cultural public concerns. Daily collected information, as well as the systematic follow-up of production stages, produces important statistical data for production assessment and control, as well as for improvement possibilities. In this scenario, this research study analyzed behavioral, production, and environmental data using Main Component Multivariable Analysis, which correlated observed behaviors, recorded using video cameras and electronic identification, with performance parameters of female broiler breeders. The aim was to start building a system to support decision-making in broiler breeder housing, based on bird behavioral parameters. Birds were housed in an environmental chamber, with three pens with different controlled environments. Bird sensitivity to environmental conditions were indicated by their behaviors, stressing the importance of behavioral observations for modern poultry management. A strong association between performance parameters and the behavior at the nest, suggesting that this behavior may be used to predict productivity. The behaviors of ruffling feathers, opening wings, preening, and at the drinker were negatively correlated with environmental temperature, suggesting that the increase of in the frequency of these behaviors indicate improvement of thermal welfare.

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The implementation of a hypothetical aquaculture facility with hatchery, nursery and grow-out earthen ponds for raising the Amazon River Prawn Macrobrachium amazonicum in the Pantanal was considered. Eight larviculture cycles per year were projected: four to produce post-larvae for stocking in grow-out bait ponds, and four to stock nursery tanks to sell juveniles as seed to grow-out farms, which produce prawns for human consumption. Annual production would be 146,880 dozen bait prawns and 2,938 thousand juveniles. The assumed sale prices were US$ 1.38 per dozen baits and US$ 15.39 per thousand juveniles. The net present value was US$ 555,890.79, internal rate of return was 48% per year, payback period was 2.4 years and benefit-cost ratio was 3.90. The breakeven price to cover total costs per dozen baits was US$ 0.70 and per thousand juveniles was US$ 17.00, indicating that the selling price assumed for juveniles in base scenario is not realistic. Net return was US$ 84,773.80. The results indicate that this activity would be a lucrative and attractive investment in the Pantanal.