Stochastic simulation of time-series models combined with geostatistics to predict water-table scenarios in a Guarani Aquifer System outcrop area, Brazil

Stochastic methods based on time-series modeling combined with geostatistics can be useful tools to describe the variability of water-table levels in time and space and to account for uncertainty. Monitoring water-level networks can give information about the dynamic of the aquifer domain in both dimensions. Time-series modeling is an elegant way to treat monitoring data without the complexity of physical mechanistic models. Time-series model predictions can be interpolated spatially, with the spatial differences in water-table dynamics determined by the spatial variation in the system properties and the temporal variation driven by the dynamics of the inputs into the system. An integration of stochastic methods is presented, based on time-series modeling and geostatistics as a framework to predict water levels for decision making in groundwater management and land-use planning. The methodology is applied in a case study in a Guarani Aquifer System (GAS) outcrop area located in the southeastern part of Brazil. Communication of results in a clear and understandable form, via simulated scenarios, is discussed as an alternative, when translating scientific knowledge into applications of stochastic hydrogeology in large aquifers with limited monitoring network coverage like the GAS.

Performance and economic indicators of a large scale fish farming in Mato Grosso, Brazil

Performance and economic indicators of a large scale fish farm that produces round fish, located in Mato Grosso State, Brazil, were evaluated. The 130.8 ha-water surface area was distributed in 30 ponds. Average total production costs and the following economic indicators were calculated: gross income (GI), gross margin (GM), gross margin index (GMI), profitability index (PI) and profit (P) for the farm as a whole and for ten ponds individually. Production performance indicators were also obtained, such as: production cycle (PC), apparent feed conversion (FC), average biomass storage (ABS), survival index (SI) and final average weight (FAW). The average costs to produce an average 2.971 kg.ha-1 per year were: R$ 2.43, R$ 0.72 and R$ 3.15 as average variable, fixed and total costs, respectively. Gross margin and profit per year per hectare of water surface were R$ 2,316.91 and R$ 180.98, respectively. The individual evaluation of the ponds showed that the best pond performance was obtained for PI 38%, FC 1.7, ABS 0.980 kg.m-2, TS 56%, FAW 1.873 kg with PC of 12.3 months. The worst PI was obtained for the pond that displayed losses of 138%, FC 2.6, ABS 0.110 kg.m-2, SI 16% and FAW 1.811 kg. However, large scale production of round-fish in farms is economically feasible. The studied farm displays favorable conditions to improve performance and economic indicators, but it is necessary to reproduce the breeding techniques and performance indicators achieved in few ponds to the entire farm.