Transfer function-noise modeling and spatial interpolation to evaluate the risk of extreme (shallow) water-table levels in the Brazilian Cerrados

Water regimes in the Brazilian Cerrados are sensitive to climatological disturbances and human intervention. The risk that critical water-table levels are exceeded over long periods of time can be estimated by applying stochastic methods in modeling the dynamic relationship between water levels and driving forces such as precipitation and evapotranspiration. In this study, a transfer function-noise model, the so called PIRFICT-model, is applied to estimate the dynamic relationship between water-table depth and precipitation surplus/deficit in a watershed with a groundwater monitoring scheme in the Brazilian Cerrados. Critical limits were defined for a period in the Cerrados agricultural calendar, the end of the rainy season, when extremely shallow levels (< 0.5-m depth) can pose a risk to plant health and machinery before harvesting. By simulating time-series models, the risk of exceeding critical thresholds during a continuous period of time (e.g. 10 days) is described by probability levels. These simulated probabilities were interpolated spatially using universal kriging, incorporating information related to the drainage basin from a digital elevation model. The resulting map reduced model uncertainty. Three areas were defined as presenting potential risk at the end of the rainy season. These areas deserve attention with respect to water-management and land-use planning.

Population structure of pond-raised Macrobrachium amazonicum with different stocking and harvesting strategies

The effect of size-grading of juveniles prior to stocking, as well as selective harvesting, on the population structure of pond-raised Macrobrachium amazonicum was studied. A randomized-complete-blocks design with 4 treatments and 3 replicates was used. The treatments were: upper size-graded juveniles, lower size-graded juveniles, ungraded juveniles (traditional), and ungraded juveniles with selective harvesting. Twelve 0.01 ha earthen ponds were stocked at 40 juveniles m(-2), according to the relevant treatment. Every three weeks, random samples from each pond were obtained for biometry, and after 3.5 months, the ponds were drained and completely harvested. Animals were then counted, weighed, and sexed; males were sorted as Translucent Claw (TC), Cinnamon Claw (CC), Green Claw 1 (GC1), and Green Claw 2 (GC2), and females as Virgin (VF), Berried (BE), and Open (OF). The prawns developed rapidly in the ponds. attaining maturity and differentiating into male morphotypes after about 2 months in all treatments. The fast-growing juveniles (upper grading fraction) mostly did not constitute the dominant males (CC] and GC2) in the adult population. Population development was slower in ponds stocked with Lower prawns, whereas selective harvesting increased the frequency of GC1 and reduced the final mean weight of GC2 males. The proportion of males increased throughout the culture period, but was generally not affected by the stocking or harvesting strategies. Grading juveniles and selective harvesting slightly altered the population dynamics and structure, although the general population development showed similar patterns in ponds stocked with upper, lower, and ungraded juveniles, or selectively harvested. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.